Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2012 Environmental Protection Agency 9th October 2013 Overview  Highlights  Trends of GHG emissions in Ir...
Author: Georgiana Byrd
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Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2012 Environmental Protection Agency 9th October 2013

Overview

 Highlights  Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

Highlights  Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO2eq, up 0.58 Mt CO2eq, 1.0% increase  Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors  Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation  Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012  Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO2eq a 1.5% increase  Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 3.5% reduction  Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers  Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas  Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account

Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gas Emissions  Sources      

Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste

 Sinks  Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation

 Gases  CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

Overview

 Highlights  Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

GHG emissions 1990-2012 (excluding LULUCF) 80

-3.5%

70

Mt CO2 Equivalent

60 50 40

30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Energy

Residential

Industry & Commercial

Agriculture

Transport

Overall emissions in 2012 are up 4.8% on 1990 levels

Waste

Interannual Change in GHG Emissions 4.00 2.80

3.00 2.07

2.00 1.00

1.46 0.78

1.91

1.51 1.14

1.97 1.32

0.93

0.58

0.37 0.07

Mt CO2 eq.

0.00 -1.00 -2.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -0.01

-0.34

-0.40 -0.86 -0.35

-0.35

-1.91

-3.00 -4.00 -4.26 -5.00 -6.00

-5.76

-7.00

Inter annual change

GHG emissions 1990 and 2012 Waste 2.5% Transport 9.3%

Waste 1.8% Energy 20.6%

Transport 18.8%

Energy 21.9%

Residential 10.7%

Residential 13.5%

Agriculture 36.9%

Agriculture 32.1%

55.25 Mt CO2 eq.

Industry & Commercial 14.7%

Industry & Commercial 17.3%

1990

57.92 Mt CO2 eq.

2012

GHG emissions 1990-2012 by Sector 25

Mt of CO2 eq.

20

15

10

5

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Agriculture

Energy

Transport

Industry & Commercial

Residential

Waste

Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0

Mt CO2eq

14.0

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Power Generation

Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture

Fugitive

Overall emissions in 2012 are 11.3% up on 1990 levels

Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0

Mt CO2eq

14.0

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Power Generation

Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture

Fugitive

Emissions in 2012 are just above 1993 levels

Residential GHG emissions 1990-2012 9.0 8.0 7.0

4.8%

0.6% -11.2%-0.7%

8.2% -2.5% -0.6% 1.9% -5.1% -5.3% 1.3%

4.2% -1.1%

2.3%

2.7%

4.0%

-1.6% -3.2%

8.6% -0.8% -15.5% -5.9%

Mt CO2 eq

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Solid Fuels

Liquid Fuels

Gaseous Fuels

Biomass Fuels

Emissions in 2012 are 16.9% below 1990 levels

Industry and Commercial 1990-2012 14.0 12.0

Mt CO2eq

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Manufacturing & Construction

Industrial Processes

Commercial Services

Solvents

Overall emissions in 2012 are 10.6% down on 1990 levels

'F' Gases

EU-ETS Emissions 2005-2012 25.0

-3.1%

-2.1%

20.0

-3.9% -15.6%

Cement emissions up 17.6% 0.8% 6.9%

Mt CO2 eq

-9.2%

Power generation emissions up 6.4%

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 2005

Power Generation

2006

2007

2008

Oil Refining & Solid Fuel Manufacture

2009

Non-ferrous Metals

2010

2011

Food Processing

2012

Cement

Power Cement Overall generation ETS sector emissions emissions emissions in 2012 inin 2012 2012 areare 24.7% are 53.1% 19.8% down down down onon 2005 on 2005 2005 levels levels levels

Other

Transport GHG emissions 1990-2012 16.0 14.0 12.0

Mt CO2eq

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Road Transport

Railways

Domestic Civil Aviation

Domestic Navigation

Gas Transmission

Overall emissions in 2012 are 113% up on 1990 levels

Agriculture GHG emissions 1990-2012 25.0

20.0

Mt CO2eq

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fuel Combustion

Enteric Fermentation

Manure Management

Agricultural Soils

Overall emissions in 2012 are 8.6% down on 1990 levels

Waste GHG emissions 1990-2012 2.0 1.8

1.6

Mt CO2eq

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Landfill

WasteWater

Incineration

Overall emissions in 2012 are 26.1% down on 1990 levels

Overview

 Highlights  Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 19902012  GHG emissions and GDP  Power Generation

 Transport  Residential

 Agriculture  Waste

GHG emissions and GDP (relative trend) 300

GDP 261 260

Index 1990=100

220

180

140

GHG 105 100

60

20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greenhouse gas emissions

GDP, constant prices

GHG Emissions/Capita Ireland 1990-2012 4600

20 19

18.2 tonnes/capita

4400

18 17

15.8 tonnes/capita

16

4000

15 3800

14 13

3600

12.6 tonnes/capita

3400

12 11

3200

10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Population

Tonne of GHG/capita

Tonne of GHG/capita

Population (000s)

4200

GHG Emissions/Capita for all EU/EEA Member States in 2011 25

Tonnes GHG/capita

20

15

Ireland 12.6 EU 15 9.1

10

5

0

CO2

CH4

N2O

F-Gases

GHG Emissions/Capita for all UNFCCC Annex I Parties in 2011 30.0

25.0

Tonnes GHG/capita

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

Ireland 12.6 EU 15 9.1

Power Generation CO2 and Electricity Total Final Consumption (relative trend) 250

Electricity TFC 205

230 210

Index 1990=100

190 170 150

Power generation 112

130 110 90 70 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Power Generation CO2 (Gg)

Electricity Total Available Final Consumption GWh

Drivers in Transport – Fuel consumption 200,000

180,000

Fuel Consumption, TJ

160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gasoline

Diesel

LPG

Fuel Oil

Kerosene (Civil Aviation)

Biofuels

Drivers in Transport – Vehicle numbers (relative trend) 300

236

250

216

Index 1990=100

200

150

100

50

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cars

Commercial vehicles

Drivers in Transport – Passenger Cars 2500000 Diesel cars 30.1%

Vehicle numbers

2000000

1500000 Diesel cars 9.4% 1000000

500000

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gasoline cars

Diesel cars

Drivers for Residential Sector 1.65M households

1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1.01M 1,200,000 households 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 No. of Households

Household numbers are up 64% since 1990

Drivers for Residential Sector 140000

9.00

8.00

120000

7.00 100000 80000

5.00

Liquid & Gas fuels +198%

60000

4.00 3.00

40000 2.00

20000

1.00

Solid fuels -66%

0

0.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Solid Fuels

Liquid Fuels

Natural Gas

Renewables

CO2 eq emissions from Residential Sector

Overall emissions in 2012 are 16.9% down on 1990 levels

Mt CO2eq

Fuel Use, TJ

6.00

Drivers in Agriculture – Livestock population (relative trend) 160

140

Index 1990=100

Pigs 125 120 Other Cattle 102 100 Dairy Cattle 82 80 Fertiliser 78 60 Sheep 60 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dairy Cattle

Other Cattle

Sheep

Fertilizer N

Pigs

Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000

Tonnes of Waste

3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

Waste generated 1000000

500000

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000

Tonnes of Waste

3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

Waste sent to Landfill

500000

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CH4 emissions from waste – solid waste disposal on land 130 120

110

82.5 Gg

100

Mt of CH4

90 80

70 60 50 40

30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CH4 Flaring

CH4 Utilisation

CH4 Generation

CH4 Emissions

Flaring and utilisation increased by 2% between 2011 and 2012

Overview

 Highlights  Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012  Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

Implications for Kyoto Compliance Mt CO2eq 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2008 - 2012

Total National Emissions

67.72

61.95

61.61

57.34

57.92

306.54

Less Verified Emissions for ETS

20.38

17.22

17.36

15.77

16.85

87.58

Total Non-ETS Emissions

47.34

44.73

44.25

41.58

41.07

218.96

Kyoto Limit

62.84

62.84

62.84

62.84

62.84

314.19

Less ETS Allocation

22.28*

22.28*

22.28*

22.28*

22.28*

111.40

Total Non-ETS Limit

40.56

40.56

40.56

40.56

40.56

202.79

Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (excluding forest sinks)

6.78

4.18

3.69

1.02

0.51

218.96 – 202.79 = 16.18

Forest sinks

-3.20

-3.39

-3.42

-3.57

-3.40

-16.98

Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (including forest sinks)

3.57

0.78

0.27

-2.55

-2.89

-0.80

Implications for Kyoto Compliance  Kyoto Protocol Limit  314.18 Mtonnes of CO2e for the period 2008 – 2012  62.84 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum  For ETS sectors  Allocation of 22.28 million allowances per annum 2008-2012  For non-ETS sectors  62.84 – 22.28 = 40.56 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum - the “effective” target for Ireland  Compare 40.56 Mtonnes of CO2e with actual non-ETS sector emissions for 2008 to 2012 and take into account forest sinks  Based on 2008 to 2012 emissions, compliance with Kyoto Protocol by 0.80 Mtonnes of CO2e

Highlights  Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO2eq, up 0.58 Mt CO2eq, 1.0% increase  Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors  Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation  Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012  Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO2eq a 1.5% increase  Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 3.5% reduction  Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers  Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas  Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account

Where we need to go under the EU Effort Sharing Decision [406/2009/EC] 80 70 60 50

Mt CO2 eq

-20% 45.4 Mt

40

37.5 Mt

30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Non ETS Emissions

ETS Emissions