IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 €10.9bn IPO proceeds raised in Q2 2016 (Q2 2015: €14.7bn, 26% decline)
95 IPOs in Q2 2016 across Europe (Q2 2015: 124 IPOs, 23% decline)
€14.4bn IPO proceeds raised in H1 2016 (H1 2015: €31.1bn, 54% decline)
www.pwc.co.uk/ipowatch
2
| IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
Contents
European IPO trends
4
Market volatility
6
Pricing and performance of top 5 IPOs
7
The sector story
8
London focus Overview
9
Relative performance of London IPOs
10
PE trends and the sector story
11
Global perspective
12
Appendix
13
Contacts
16
Stay tuned
“Following the referendum result, there have been a number of transactions postponed due to concerns over market uncertainties. That said, the majority of companies pursuing IPOs for the second half of the year are maintaining their plans. Improved political stability and greater clarity over the UK’s progress on negotiations with the EU will be key to IPO activity picking up again post the traditional quiet summer period. Provided this is the case, the successful completion of the first IPOs coming to market postsummer will set the tone for the remainder of the year. Whilst I do not see activity coming to a standstill, European IPO levels are unlikely to reach the €25bn mark for the year.” Mark Hughes Partner, UK Capital Markets Leader at PwC
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 |
3
European IPO trends IPO activity in Europe dropped more than 50% in H1 2016 compared to the same period last year, with OMX featuring as the most active exchange both by value and volume
Figure 1: Quarterly European IPO activity by value and volume H1 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
H1 2016
Total European listings comprise those with: Less than €5m raised
66
23
28
51
Greater than €5m raised
140
27
67
94
Total number of listings
206
50
95
145
31,099
3,490
10,919
14,409
Exercised greenshoe (€m)
2,576
201
771
972
Total money raised (€m)
33,675
3,691
11,690
15,381
240
136
174
163
Money raised excl. greenshoe (€m)
Average offering value (€m)*
* Average offering value has been calculated based on total money raised including greenshoe, excluding listings raising less than €5m
Figure 2: Top 3 stock exchanges in Europe in 2016 (by offering value)
Q2
Euronext
BME
13 IPOs raised*
5 IPOs raised*
OMX 33 IPOs raised*
€3.4bn
€3.0bn
€1.3bn
Average IPO proceeds**
Average IPO proceeds**
Average IPO proceeds**
€263m
€438m
Figure 2: Top 3 stock exchanges in Europe in Q2 2016 (by offering value) Largest IPO: Largest IPO:
Largest IPO:
€201m
Parques Reunidos
Dong Energy
a.s.r.
€2,301m (€2,647m incl. greenshoe)
€1,018m (no greenshoe)
H1
OMX 47 IPOs raised*
€600m (no greenshoe)
London 39 IPOs raised*
€4.2bn
€3.5bn
Average IPO proceeds**
Average IPO proceeds**
€180m
€114m
Largest IPO:
Largest IPO:
Dong Energy
CYBG
€2,301m (€2,647m incl. greenshoe)
€453m (€521m incl. greenshoe)
*Excludes greenshoe **Average proceeds have been calculated on total proceeds including greenshoe, excluding listings raising less than €5m
4
| IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
Euronext 14 IPOs raised*
€3.0bn Average IPO proceeds**
€263m Largest IPO:
a.s.r. €1,018m (no greenshoe)
European IPO trends Activity levels recovered slightly from Q1, but suffered from the pre- and post-EU referendum uncertainty
Figure 3: H1 European IPO activity since 2007*
450
401
40
400
Value of IPOs (€bn)
35
350
30
214
251
25
186
166
20
250 145
154 121
15 10 5
300 206
11.1
H1 2007
H1 2008
200 150 100
39 38.7
Volume of IPOs
45
0.5
13.7
16.8
3.2
8.6
33.7
31.1
14.4
H1 2010
H1 2011
H1 2012
H1 2013
H1 2014
H1 2015
H1 2016
-
50 -
H1 2009
Value €bn
IPOs
Figure 4: Quarterly European IPO activity since 2013
146
160
Value of IPOs (€bn)
124 20
140
106
105 95 86
15
10
76
76
68
100
82
80 53
52
45
120
50
60
Volume of IPOs
25
40
5
20 3.3
5.4
3.0
14.8
11.4
22.3
6.6
9.2
16.4
14.7
4.6
21.7
3.5
10.9
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-
2013
2014 Value €bn
2015 Greenshoe €bn
2016
IPOs
*Excludes greenshoe. Note: Excludes IPOs on Borsa Istanbul, Zagreb Stock Exchange and Bucharest Stock Exchange pre 2011
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 |
5
Market volatility The outcome of the EU referendum in the UK caused volatility to spike and indices to wobble towards the end of the quarter
Figure 5: Volatility compared to IPO proceeds IPO of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, Euskaltel and Flow Traders
€1bn+ IPOs of Worldpay, Poste Italiane, Covestro and Scout24
€1bn+ IPOs of Amundi and ABN AMRO
EU referendum in the UK
50 45
12
40
10
35 30
8 25 6 4
20
Falling oil prices, Chinese economy slowdown and threat of impending bear market
China stock market turmoil
2
VSTOXX index
Money raised €bn
14
€1bn+ IPOs of Sunrise, Aena and GrandVision
15 10 5 0
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Money raised €bn
May
Jun
Jul 2015
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr 2016
May
Jun
VSTOXX index
Figure 6: Historical performance of major market indices since January 2015
% change since 1 Jan 2015
40% 30% 20% 10%
DAX 30 CAC 40
0% FTSE 100 -10% -20% JanJanFebFebMarMarApr AprMayMayJun JunJul JulAugAugSepSepOct OctNov NovDec DecJan JanFebFebMar MarApr Apr May May Jun Jun 2015 2016
Source: Thomson Reuters as at 30 Jun 2016
6
| IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
Pricing and performance of top 5 IPOs 4 of the top 5 IPOs priced in the lower half of their pricing range, but most were outperforming their domestic index by the end of the quarter
Figure 7: Top 5 IPOs in Q2 2016 Dong Energy
a.s.r.
Philips Lighting
MONETA Money Bank
Parques Reunidos
Exchange
OMX Copenhagen
Euronext Amsterdam
Euronext Amsterdam
Prague Stock Exchange
BME
IPO date
9 June
10 June
27 May
6 May
29 April
Money raised (€m) incl. greenshoe
2,647
1,018
863
739
600
CK68.00 – CK85.00
€15.50 - €20.50
CK68.00
€15.50
Price range
DKR200 – DKR255
Offer price
DKR235
€18.00 - €22.00 €18.50 - €22.50 €19.50
€20.00
Figure 8: Offer price versus initial price range of top 5 IPOs
Figure 9: Performance of top 5 IPOs
40% 5.6% 3.8%
30%
2.3%
20% -0.3% -2.0%
10% -3.8%
-2.8%
0% Offer price
-7.9% -10.9%
-10%
-15.8%
-20% Dong Energy
a.s.r.
Offer price
Philips Lighting
MONETA Money Bank
Price range
Parques Reunidos
Dong Energy
a.s.r.
Philips Lighting
MONETA Money Bank
Parques Reunidos
Share performance from IPO to 30 Jun 2016 (%) Domestic index performance from IPO to 30 Jun 2016 (%)
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 |
7
The sector story Financials remained the most active sector in H1, while utilities were boosted by the €2bn+ IPO of Dong Energy
Figure 10: IPO value by sector* By offering value (€m)
H1 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
H1 2016
Variance vs H1 2015
Financials
6,881
1,323
3,399
4,722
(2,159)
Consumer Services
5,136
551
2,218
2,769
(2,367)
440
269
2,344
2,613
2,173
Industrials
8,394
233
1,895
2,128
(6,266)
Consumer Goods
2,054
872
678
1,550
(504)
Health Care
1,961
186
154
340
(1,621)
Technology
1,552
45
87
132
(1,420)
Oil & Gas
29
-
112
112
83
Basic Materials
22
11
22
33
11
4,630
-
10
10
(4,620)
31,099
3,490
10,919
14,409
(16,690)
Utilities
Telecommunications Total
“Companies, investors and bankers are all still grappling with what the referendum result means for the UK economy as well as the rest of the EU. Following the initial tumble, the FTSE 100 has recovered to its highest levels since August 2015 whilst the FTSE 250 continues to be hampered by concerns over the UK economy. The financial services sector has been hit hardest along with a broader impact on domestic UK businesses. Over the coming quarters I expect investors to favour IPO candidates with a global exposure and/or offering steady yields.” Viv Maclachlan Director in the UK capital markets group at PwC
Financials
Utilities
Consumer Services
29 IPOs raised in Q2 2016
3 IPO raised in Q2 2016
12 IPOs raised in Q2 2016
€3.4bn*
€2.3bn*
€2.2bn*
Average IPO proceeds**
no meaningful average
Average IPO proceeds**
€204m
€175m Largest IPO:
Largest IPO:
Largest IPO:
a.s.r.
Dong Energy
Parques Reunidos
€1,018m (no greenshoe)
€2,301m (€2,647m incl. greenshoe)
€600m (no greenshoe)
*Excludes greenshoe ** Average proceeds have been calculated based on total proceeds including greenshoe, excluding listings raising less than €5m
8
| IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
London focus - Overview Activity in H1 2016 was a third of last year’s, depressed by the EU referendum, seeing AIM volume and proceeds overtake the Main Market in Q2
Figure 11: London IPO trends (by offering value)* H1 ‘13 £3.7bn
H1 ‘15
£13.0bn
H1 ‘13
H1 ‘16 £2.7bn
£6.8bn
0.6
8 6 1.1
0.1
4
0.1 0.3 0.0 1.5
0.2 0.3 2.0
H1 ‘15 86
H1 ‘16 39
55
50
0.5
2
H1 ‘14 38
60
Volume of IPOs
Value of IPOs (£bn)
10
H1 ‘14
Figure 12: London IPO trends (by volume)
40
6
1.2 6.4 3.8 7.5 1.3 0.6 3.3 3.1
-
0.0 0.5
0.6 4.5 1.6
0.3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 Main and SFM AIM
21
20
0.2
0.3 0.7
26
30
10
9 18
6 7
16
15
19 9
6
19
14
28
8
12 9
22 6
18
16
4 5
22
9
14 7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 Main and SFM AIM
Figure 13: Top 5 UK IPOs in Q2 2016 Value (£m) Issuer Forterra Motorpoint Group Time Out Group Hadrians Wall Secured Investments Draper Esprit
Excl. greenshoe
Incl. greenshoe
126 100 90 80 79
128 100 90 80 79
Sector Industrials Consumer Services Consumer Services Financials Financials
Market Main Main AIM Main AIM
PE backed Yes No Yes No Yes
Note: Ranking in pounds is different from ranking in euros due to exchange rate
“Despite London being absent from the top 5 IPOs this quarter, AIM has seen a relatively active period in terms of IPO activity with better quality companies raising larger amounts of capital and performing well post IPO. It goes without saying that London IPO activity has suffered in H1 2016 under the uncertainty in the run up to the EU referendum together with the prevailing fragility in the economy resulting from China's slow down and the oil price volatility. With the current political instability in the UK, uncertainty around the exit negotiations with the EU and wider economic conditions, it is difficult to predict how quickly IPO activity will pick up after what I expect to be a muted summer.” Lucy Tarleton Director in the UK capital markets group at PwC
*Excludes greenshoe Source: London Stock Exchange
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 |
9
London focus - Relative performance of London IPOs £1 invested in each of the UK IPOs raising more than £5m would have resulted in a gain of £3.76 (or +13%)
Figure 14: Share price performance of London IPOs relative to the FTSE all share index, from IPO to 30 June 2016 (%) -40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
129
Directa Plus (£13m)
50
Blue Prism Group (£21m)
43
Harwood Wealth Management Group (£14m)
41
Mereo BioPharma Group (£11m) Cerillion (£10m)
33
Comptoir Group (£16m)
33 23
Yu Group (£10m)
20
CYBG (£344m) Hotel Chocolat Group (£56m)
17
Osirium Technologies (£9m)
16 16
MaxCyte (£10m) Joules Group (£78m)
10
Midwich Group (£75m)
10 10
Ascential (£280m) Pacific Industrial & Logistics REIT (£10m)
7
Watkin Jones (£131m)
7 5
Accrol Group Holdings (£64m)
2
Shield Therapeutics (£32m) Draper Esprit (£79m)
1
CMC Markets (£218m)
1
Hadrians Wall Secured Investments (£80m)
-5
Puma VCT 12 (£31m)
-6
Motorpoint Group (£100m)
-7
Oncimmune Holdings (£11m)
-8
companies have outperformed the index
9 companies have underperformed the index
-12
Time Out Group (£90m)
-14
Metro Bank (£400m)
Forterra (£126m)
20
-11
Countryside Properties (£304m)
Morses Club (£68m)
140%
-17
Main and SFM AIM
-21
Note: Threshold of £5m | Relative performance based on the FTSE All Share Index for Main Market and SFM listed companies and FTSE AIM All Share index for AIM quoted companies Source: Dealogic and Thomson Reuters as of 30 June 2016
10 | IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
London focus - PE trends and the sector story PE still represented over 50% of activity in a subdued market Financials are still leading the charge in H1 2016 with 46% of total proceeds, despite being down two thirds from last year
Figure 15: Value of London PE-backed IPOs vs non PE-backed IPOs in London* 8
Figure 16: Volume of London PE-backed IPOs vs non PE-backed IPOs in London* 30
74%
25
5
53%
93%
4 98%
3 2
59%
46%
6
Volume of IPOs
Value of IPOs (£bn)
7
82% 100%
1
58%
59% 84%
79% 54%
20
33% 89%
50%
70%
33%
64%
-
53%
10 5
60%
43%
15
75%
56% 50%
50% 100%
50%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 PE-backed Non PE-backed
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 PE-backed Non PE-backed
Figure 17: London IPO value by sector (excl. greenshoe) By offering value (£m)
H1 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
H1 2016 Variance vs. H1 2015
3,225
980
268
1,248
377
304
119
423
46
2,061
280
284
563
(1,498)
Industrials
525
131
201
333
(192)
Health Care
213
42
22
65
(148)
Technology
352
35
9
44
(309)
Financials Consumer Goods Consumer Services
Utilities Basic Materials Telecommunications Oil & Gas Total value (£m)
(1,977)
-
10
4
14
14
10
-
13
13
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6,763
1,782
920
2,702
(4,061)
* UK IPOs raising over €50m, excludes closed-end funds, SPACs, SPVs, Capital Pool companies, Investment Managers, REITs, Royalty Trusts Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 | 11
Global perspective Global markets have seen some recovery in Q2 after a slow start to the year, but are still well below previous years’ activity levels
Figure 18: Global IPO activity* 475
70 365
249
40 30
400 294
50
450
377
376
365
301
271
350
225
222
215
189
243
300 250 200 150
20
Volume of IPOs
Value of IPOs (€bn)
60
500
100
10
50
-
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
EMEA (€bn)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2016
2015
Americas (€bn)
Q2
Asia Pacific (€bn)
IPOs
Figure 19: Top 10 global IPOs in H1 2016 Issuer
€m (incl. greenshoe) Exchange
Sector
Deal type Privatisation/ PE
Dong Energy
2,647
Copenhagen
Utilities
China Zheshang Bank
1,720
Hong Kong
Financials
-
MGM Growth Properties
1,068
New York
Financials
Carve out
US Foods Holding
1,048
New York
Consumer Goods
a.s.r.
1,018
Amsterdam
Financials
Privatisation
BOC Aviation
1,004
Hong Kong
Industrials
Carve out
Bank of Tianjin
878
Hong Kong
Financials
-
Philips Lighting
863
Amsterdam
Industrials
Carve out
LaSalle Logiport
835
Tokyo
Financials
-
MONETA Money Bank
739
Prague
Financials
Carve out
“Global IPO activity picked up in Q2 after a slow start of the year, largely reflecting normal seasonal trends. However, year-to-date proceeds raised were less than half of those raised in the first half of 2015. Given recent global market reactions to the outcome of the EU referendum in the UK, and the upcoming general elections in the US, it is likely that Asia Pacific will be the region to watch for IPO activity in H2, especially with the recently launched jumbo IPO of the Postal Savings Bank of China in Hong Kong.” Clifford Tompsett Partner, Head of the Global IPO Centre at PwC
* Excludes greenshoe Source: Dealogic
12 | IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
PE
Appendix - IPOs by market
Appendix 1: European IPOs by market H1 2015 Stock exchange TOTAL London Stock Exchange NASDAQ OMX Euronext BME (Spanish Exchange) Prague SIX Swiss Exchange Borsa Italiana Deutsche Börse Warsaw Borsa Istanbul Oslo Børs & Oslo Axess Irish Stock Exchange Zagreb Stock Exchange Bucharest Wiener Börse Total
IPOs
Q1 2016 Value (€m)*
IPOs
Q2 2016 Value (€m)*
IPOs
H1 2016 Value (€m)*
IPOs
Value (€m)*
55 55 26 8 2 13 10 18 4 6 2 2 4 1 206
9,345 3,863 4,904 6,903 1,882 1,483 1,301 321 23 644 394 36 31,099
18 14 1 5 1 2 3 5 1 50
2,327 811 3 3 28 288 19 11 3,490
21 33 13 5 1 2 5 2 8 1 4 95
1,180 3,436 2,986 1,300 656 633 437 17 92 92 90 10,919
39 47 14 10 1 3 7 5 13 2 4 145
3,507 4,247 2,989 1,303 656 633 465 305 111 103 90 14,409
17 34 18 5 2 4
3,234 8,824 4,837 6,898 1,882 1,392
5 9 1 -
592 2,026 -
12 7 10 3 1 2 2
3,236 432 2,954 1,300 656 633 378
17 16 10 3 1 3 2
3,828 2,458 2,954 1,300 656 633 378
EU-REGULATED NASDAQ OMX (Main) London Main and SFM Euronext BME (Spanish Exchange) (Main) Prague SIX Swiss Exchange Borsa Italiana (Main) Deutsche Börse (Prime and General Standard) Warsaw (Main) Oslo Børs Irish Stock Exchange (Main) Zagreb Stock Exchange Wiener Börse EU-regulated sub-total
8
1,301
3
288
1
3
4
291
6 3 2 2 1 102
315 586 394 36 29,699
1 19
17 2,923
5 3 46
91 90 9,773
6 3 65
108 90 12,696
EXCHANGE-REGULATED London AIM NASDAQ OMX (First North) Borsa Istanbul Borsa Italiana (AIM) Euronext (Alternext) Deutsche Börse (Entry Standard) BME (Spanish Exchange) (MAB) Warsaw (NewConnect) Oslo Axess Bucharest (AeRO) Exchange-regulated sub-total Europe total
21 38 4 9 8 2 3 12 3 4 104 206
521 629 23 91 67 5 6 58 1,400 31,099
9 9 1 2 1 5 4 31 50
301 219 11 28 3 3 2 567 3,490
14 21 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 49 95
748 200 92 59 32 14 1 1,146 10,919
23 30 2 5 4 1 7 7 1 80 145
1,049 419 103 87 35 14 3 3 1,713 14,409
* Excludes greenshoe
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 | 13
Appendix - Exchange activity by value
Appendix 2: IPO offering value by stock exchange* Stock exchange offering value (€m) NASDAQ OMX OMX Copenhagen OMX Stockholm OMX Helsinki OMX Iceland OMX Tallinn OMX Vilnius London Stock Exchange Euronext Euronext Paris Euronext Amsterdam Euronext Brussels BME (Spanish Exchange) Prague Stock Exchange SIX Swiss Exchange Borsa Italiana Deutsche Börse Warsaw Borsa Istanbul Oslo Børs & Oslo Axess Irish Stock Exchange Zagreb Stock Exchange Bucharest Stock Exchange Wiener Börse Total
*Excludes greenshoe
14 | IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016
H1 2015 3,863 168 3,308 322 65 9,345 4,904 2,908 1,696 300 6,903 1,882 1,483 1,301 321 23 644 394 36 31,099
Q1 2016 811 477 317 17 2,327 3 3 3 28 288 19 11 3,490
Q2 2016 3,436 2,301 869 232 20 14 1,180 2,986 683 2,280 23 1,300 656 633 437 17 92 92 90 10,919
H1 2016 4,247 2,778 1,186 249 20 14 3,507 2,989 686 2,280 23 1,303 656 633 465 305 111 103 90 14,409
Appendix - Exchange activity by volume
Appendix 3: IPO volume by stock exchange Stock exchange offering volume NASDAQ OMX OMX Copenhagen OMX Stockholm OMX Helsinki OMX Iceland OMX Tallinn OMX Vilnius London Stock Exchange Euronext Euronext Paris Euronext Amsterdam Euronext Brussels BME (Spanish Exchange) Prague Stock Exchange SIX Swiss Exchange Borsa Italiana Deutsche Börse Warsaw Borsa Istanbul Oslo Børs & Oslo Axess Irish Stock Exchange Zagreb Stock Exchange Bucharest Stock Exchange Wiener Börse Total
H1 2015 55 1 44 6 2 1 1 55 26 19 3 4 8 2 13 10 18 4 6 2 2 4 1 206
Q1 2016 14 1 10 2 1 18 1 1 5 1 2 3 5 1 50
Q2 2016 33 2 25 4 1 1 21 13 7 5 1 5 1 2 5 2 8 1 4 95
H1 2016 47 3 35 6 1 1 1 39 14 8 5 1 10 1 3 7 5 13 2 4 145
IPO Watch Europe Q2 2016 | 15
Contacts About IPO Watch Europe IPO Watch Europe surveys all new primary market equity IPOs on Europe’s principal stock markets and market segments (including exchanges in the EU, Iceland Norway, Turkey and Switzerland) on a quarterly basis. Movements between markets on the same exchange are excluded. This survey was conducted between 1 April and 30 June 2016 and captures IPOs based on their first trading date. All market data is sourced from the stock markets themselves and has not been independently verified by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Katherine Howbrook (Press office) +44 (0) 20 7212 2711
[email protected] Mark Hughes (Partner, UK Capital Markets leader) +44 (0) 20 7804 3824
[email protected] Vivienne Maclachlan (Director, Capital Markets) +44 (0) 20 7804 1097
[email protected] Lucy Tarleton (Director, Capital Markets) +44 (0) 20 7212 3856
[email protected]
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2016 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, "PwC" refers to the UK member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.