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International Coal Markets Outlook The end of the boom
www.woodmac.com International Coal Markets Outlook “The end of the boom” December 2008 Coal Trading Conference NYC Delivering commercial insight to ...
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Brenda O’Neal’
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www.woodmac.com
International Coal Markets Outlook “The end of the boom” December 2008 Coal Trading Conference NYC
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry
www.woodmac.com
Agenda
1
Historic pricing
2
Price drivers for thermal and metallurgical coal
3
Supply demand outlook
4
Outlook for prices
2
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry
1
www.woodmac.com
Contract prices have risen dramatically across all coal types Historical Thermal and Metallurgical FOB Coal Prices
US$/t FOB (Nominal)
320
BHPB reported settlements with JSM’ JSM’s
Hard coking coal (HCC) Semi-soft coking coal (SSCC) Thermal coal (basis 6322kcal/kg gar)
280 240
Xstrata reported settlements with Chubu EPC
200 160 120 80 40 0 1982
1994
1988
1998
2002
2006
2008(p)
Source: Wood Mackenzie Coal Market Service – Thermal Trade 3
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry
www.woodmac.com
Historical CIF coal prices in Europe Europe Spot Market Index (CIF ARA) 160 140
Has the market peaked yet? Colombia South Africa
US$/t
120 100 80
Surge in Asian demand
Avg. ~$70
60
LT range 4Bt 2-4Bt 1-2Bt
500Mt-1000Mt 200-500Mt 100-200Mt
50-100Mt 10-50Mt
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