Intermodal transport system and its influences on the individual modes of transport in consideration of cost-benefit relations

ChemLog – Chemical Logistics Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe Chemical Logistics Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe Feasibility Stud...
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ChemLog – Chemical Logistics Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe

Chemical Logistics Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe

Feasibility Study

Intermodal transport system and its influences on the individual modes of transport in consideration of cost-benefit relations Date: November 2010

Ministry for Regional Development and Transport Saxony-Anhalt Author: Railistics

www.chemlog.info

ChemLog – Chemical Logistics Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co‐financed by the ERDF. Any liability for the content of this publication lies with the authors. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained herein. www.central2013.eu

Final Report Feasibility study, "Intermodal transportation system and its influence on mode of transport considering the cost-benefit ratios" Work Group

Julia Bakukin, Dr. Joachim Koch, Bettina Latell, Udo Sauerbrey

Report for

Produced by

Ministerium für Landesentwicklung und Verkehr des Landes SachsenAnhalt Turmschanzenstraße 30 39114 Magdeburg

Railistics GmbH Antoinettenstraße 37 06844 Dessau t 0340 21690 12

29.10.2010

[email protected]

Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Contents

1.

Summary

1

2.

Introduction and Aims of the Project

2

3.

Project Contents

3

4.

Basic conditions for Success in Combined Traffic (CT)

4

4.1.

Representation of the complex economic situation in intermodal transport

4

4.2.

Competition from other modes of transport

5

4.3.

Description of the essential administrative and technical barriers to the establishment of intermodal transport

8

5.

Transport Volume and CT Potential

10

5.1.

Quantitative basis for KV Deal

10

5.2.

Statistically recorded transport streams in PEC II

10

5.2.1. Importance of the corridor for the East German chemical industry

10

5.2.2. Importance of Rail for the Chemical Industry

11

5.2.3. Development of the freight traffic streams 2005-2009

11

5.2.4. Proportion of chemicals in the volume of traffic

13

5.2.5. Geographic distribution of traffic on the rail (total volume, and chemical goods)

14

5.2.6. Road traffic (total volume, and chemical goods)

17

5.2.7. Short-Sea Traffic (Total Volume and Chemical Goods)

19

5.2.8. Modal split of transport (total volume, and chemical goods)

21

5.3.

24

Market survey to identify specific potential shift by 2025

5.3.1. Business Survey in the chemical industry

24

5.3.2. Potential relocation of the Central German chemical industry in tons

25

5.3.3. . Geographic distribution of the displacement potential

28

5.3.4. Geographical distribution of the potentials Germany – Poland

32

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

6.

CT-Terminals

34

6.1.

Analysis of the CT-Terminals along the PEC II

34

6.1.1. Function of CT-Terminals

34

6.1.2. Terminal evaluation criteria - general criteria

34

6.1.3. Analysis of combined transport terminals in the PEC II – Procedures

35

6.1.4. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with the forecasted demand – Germany

41

6.1.5. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with the forecasted demand – Poland

41

6.1.6. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with

List of Figures

the forecasted demand – Russia

42

7.

New rail concept

44

7.1.

Rail transport services in CT

44

7.2.

Transport technology for cross-border rail service

44

7.3.

Rail Infrastructure

49

8.

Alternative handling techniques

50

9.

Recommenations

54

Figure 1:

Needs and requirements of the surveyed companies concerning the transport offer

Figure 2:

5

Development of the volume of freight traffic of the surface modes of transport rail and road from Germany to Poland including transit Belgium and the Netherlands via Germany

12

Figure 4:

Rail transport West-East total 2008

14

Figure 5:

Rail transport West-east chemical goods 2008

15

Figure 6:

Rail transport East-West total 2008

16

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Figure 7:

Rail transport East-West chemical goods 2008

16

Figure 8:

Road transport West-East total 2008

17

Figure 9:

Road transport West-East chemical goods 2008

18

Figure 10:

Road transport East-West total 2008

18

Figure 11:

Road transport East-West chemical goods 2008

19

Figure 12:

Short-Sea transport West-East total 2008

20

Figure 13:

Short-Sea transport East-West total 2008

20

Figure 14:

Modal Split West-East total 2008

21

Figure 15:

Modal Split East-West total 2008

22

Figure 16:

Modal Split West-East chemical goods 2008

22

Figure 17:

Modal Split East-West chemical goods 2008

23

Figure 18:

Kinds of commodities of chemical goods of the stated relocateable volumes 2008

Table 19:

27

Prognosis of the development of the relocateable transport revenue in West-East direction of the polled comapnies 2010-2025

Figure 20:

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2008

Figure 21:

31

Geographical Distribution of relocateable volumes 2025 in Container per year and trains per week

Figure 26:

30

Geographical distribution of relocatebale volumes 2015 in Containern per year and trains per week

Figure 25:

30

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2008 in Container per year an trains per week

Figure 24:

29

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2025

Figure 23:

29

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2015

Figure 22:

28

31

Origins and destinations of the shift to rail

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potential of the surveyed companies in freight transport between Germans and Poland Figure 27:

Terminal locations and capacity in Germany alongside Pan-European Transport Corridor II

Figure 28:

32

36

Terminal locations and capacity in Poland (50 km around Pan European Transport Corridor II)

36

Figure 29:

Terminal locations and capacity in Russia

37

Figure 30:

Aggregation of regional terminal capacities in Germany

Figure 31:

41

Aggregation of regional terminal capacities in Poland

42

Figure 32:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 372 TEU)

47

Figure 33:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 186 TEU)

48

Figure 34:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 93 TEU)

48

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

List of Tables

Table 1:

Volume of goods of the surface modes of transport from/via Germany to Poland in 1000 tons, 2008

Table 2:

13

Volume of goods of the surface modes of transport from Poland to/via Germany in 1000 tons, 2008

Table 3:

13

Total transport volume in West-East direction according to companies and destinations 2008 and thereof derivated relocatable volumes

Table 4:

25

Total transport volume in East-West-direction according to companies and destinations anf thereof derivated relocateable volumes

26

Table 5:

Assessment of Terminals in the analysed area

39

Table 6:

Infrastructure of terminals in the analysed area

40

Table 7:

Cost comparison of 3 scenarios for intermodal rail transport concepts

47

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1.

Summary

The aim of this feasibility study is to develop concrete proposals for improving infrastructure requirements for the design of efficient intermodal transport chains along the Pan-European Transport Corridor II. (PEC II: Berlin-Warsaw-Minsk-Moscow-Nizhny Novgorod). Intermodal transport offers, in particular for the chemical industry, a safe and reliable transport mode, which today can not exploit its potential in this corridor. For all the analysis and recommendations the traffic flows on the PEV II are divided into two areas: within the EU (Germany and Poland on standard gauge network) and outside the EU (Belarus and Russia to wide gauge network). The eastern CIS states are necessarily included in all considerations, as the biggest growth markets are expected there. This is clear from statistical data and is supported by the results of a business survey. The volume is sufficient and a large mass can be displaced onto combined transport (CT). Concrete solutions or suggestions can be defined in particular for the EU countries. In the affected CIS countries in addition to all infrastructural and organizational improvements, a number of changes at the political and administrative level are necessary to permit the market-based development of multimodal transport services. The results of this study are however also applicable for those countries in theory. The framework for an implementation currently exists only within the EU countries. The proposals can be grouped generally as follows: • The expansion and modernization of the terminal infrastructure, especially in Poland is urgently required because the facilities do not meet the future demand capacity and quality requirements. This applies to the areas of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Nizhnij Novgorod • The establishment of continuous railway transport concepts to overcome the administrative and technical barriers at the border and to improve economic competitiveness is necessary. The implementation of these proposals is mainly for interested parties who can rely on public support, particularly for the development of terminals.

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2.

Introduction and Aims of the Project

The chemical industry dominates the economic structure in Saxony-Anhalt. The country has traditionally had significant sites where famous investors such as BASF, Dow, Total, Degussa, Linde, Bayer, Atofina, etc. have settled. Competitive local conditions, including an efficient transportation infrastructure that ensures efficient access to raw materials and markets are important criteria for the further development of the central German chemical industry. A central position in freight traffic between Germany and the Eastern European countries is occupied by the PEC II, which runs from Berlin beyond the EU to Russia and Asia. As the world's leading producer of chemicals, Germany exports considerable quantities of chemical goods via PEC II to Eastern Europe, where the Federal Republic on the other hand, is supplied with important raw materials. The demands of the transport industry on logistics services, and therefore also the efficiency of the logistics infrastructure is growing with the steadily increasing competitive pressure. The issues of environmental protection and transport security drive the idea for the creation of sustainable and resource efficient logistics processes on rail. The Ministry of Regional Development and Transport of Saxony-Anhalt (MLV) has in this context, conceived a project to conduct a feasibility study on "Intermodal Transport System and its influence on mode of transport because of the cost-benefit ratios". The aim of the work is not only the achievement of policy objectives (know-how and technology transfer, harmonization and coordination of plans and the general strengthening of environmentally friendly transport rail, barge and pipeline)but also to develop concrete proposals for improving infrastructure conditions and efficient transport chains. The corresponding development of Railistics accepted solutions focuses therefore on a sustainable transport infrastructure and the intelligent integration of transport and traffic flows on the multimodal PEV II in the route of Saxony-Anhalt - Berlin - Warsaw - Moscow for chemical transport. The proposals are based on the detailed analysis of the real transport flows and evaluations of the existing transport hubs.

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3.

Project Contents

The project results consist of three components: • Transport currents and potentials • capacity of handling areas / terminals • Appropriate transport concepts. For the design of intermodal transport concepts in the first step, a market analysis (statistics and surveys) of the general and specific chemical freight flows along the PEV II was carried out. The requirements for and the existing condition of terminal capacity were analyzed in a second step, to formulate concrete proposals for infrastructure measures. An essential element of the movement of traffic on the railway is adequate availability in CT. To develop them in an exemplary way and subject them to a cost-benefit analysis was the third step of this investigation. As an aside, a variety of other handling techniques were considered, which could theoretically also be used in the corridor.

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4.

Basic conditions for Success in Combined Traffic (CT)

4.1. Representation of the complex economic situation in intermodal transport In general, the transportation choice of the shipping industry is affected by the cost and quality of transport. These result in turn from the transportable nature of goods and the volume of transport, the transport distance, the bundling ability of certain types of goods, transport and logistics infrastructure, transport organization, the offered price of transport, the available time slots and many other factors. The use of intermodal transport compared to the pure transport truck is connected to a series of obstacles. In particular, transhipment at terminals, waiting for bundled transportation or technological barriers for rail transport have an impact on the competitiveness of intermodal transport. On the other hand, especially for sensitive goods, intermodal transport is made interesting by the fact that CT operators to deploy as a rule today, a complete documentation of the transport routes in a separate chain of information and control. The information is not directly connected to a truck and a driver, but is made for larger transport volumes, which increases the security. Furthermore, in large transport such as rail or boat access for third parties is more difficult than in single-truck traffic, which also speaks for the security of the intermodal transport chain. However, it must also make clear that it is precisely in this respect that Eastern Europe has to improve. The present study has shown that the most important criterion in the transport organization is the economics of transportation. In the following Figure 1, the five essential criteria for the choice of transport listed, have been identified in the business survey (see Section 5.3).

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The points were surveyed by the Parties (1 to 5) assigned in order of importance and then cumulated.

Transport offer requirements 25

20

15

10

5

0 Price/cost

Figure 1:

Reliability (on-time delivery)

Quality of logistical service provider

Safety

Transport time

Needs and requirements of the surveyed companies concerning the transport offer

The overview is also clear that reliability and security are almost as important as the price. This makes it clear that the opportunities for CT, especially for the chemical industry are very good. To organize intermodal transport economically from the perspective of market participants, many parameters are important. In particular, the efficiency of the ports (terminals, as well as countries and systems boundaries) and the economic orientation of the rail companies are of the utmost importance in order to determine the marketability. The following are some important issues concerning the competitiveness of KV.

4.2. Competition from other modes of transport

Intermodal transport is in competition with other transport modes and carriers. The principal differences are explained below. Types of Goods and Quantities

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In KV virtually all types of goods and quantities can be transported. Truck loads can in principle be considered included, since the same structures are used. The KV offers with the approval of 44 tonnes maximum transport weight on the truck a commercial advantage for all types of goods transport with high weights. The trailers / semi-trailers currently used mainly in Europe, cannot at the moment be transported in conventional CT, expect with technically complex solutions. However, conversion of the existing fleet is possible in a relatively short period of time, if there is a corresponding lucrative offer in CT. Many rental companies and leasing companies can quickly deploy Release crane equipment. Maybe the development of cranable units would be made easier also with a funding program to facilitate investment. Furthermore, it should be noted that even today many units have already been lifted by crane and the initial point here is to create attractive offers and to win this volume for the rail. Also bulk cargoes are carried in certain areas with intermodal solutions, but here is the smaller payload per wagon, a relative price disadvantage compared to pure rail traffic. Transport speed and quality The transport speed of CT is comparable to that of pure rail. Compared with the truck there are advantages and disadvantages. The average speed on rail tends to be a little higher than on the road. However, road transport has a time advantage due to the door to door delivery. Over longer distances, the intermodal transport offers, theoretically, significant advantages in terms of the road driving and rest periods. In reality however this advantage disappears at borders, through the inevitable wait at the border crossing and the necessary coordination between different Railway Undertakings. Furthermore, track changes may be necessary, as in the PEV II, amd must be taken into account. The CT has a significant advantage in terms of punctuality. The delivery of the last mile, so the arrival ramp, can be very well organized from the terminal (just-in-time), this is difficult for long-haul trucks. When large quantities are being considered, this is a major advantage.

Organizational needs / flexibility The higher organizational costs for carriers and shippers will be used as an argument against CT. Compared to a truck, this argument seems logical, since truck shippers can plan very responsively. This compares with the advantage of CT in the organization of large quantities. The organizational effort required for combined transport for shippers and freight forwarders presents an initial hurdle. In comparison, the planning and organization of a fleet of semi-trailers, swap bodies or

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containers for daily use is not significantly different from the truck scheduling. The fact that in contrast to pure truck transport, each load is not accompanied by a driver is tempered by the fact that the cargo on the train is relatively safe from external influences. The communication between the train and freight forwarding companies in many places leaves room for improvement, but now largely in Western Europe, this is very organized.

Investment needs The biggest hurdle in the development of adequate CT offers the necessary infrastructure requirements. The construction of terminals is challenging and unrealistic to expect the operators themselves to manage it. In general, as in the railway infrastructure, the public sector has to pay for it, at least in part. The installation of terminals in turn is a complex task, whose success with the integration of technology and modern logistics connected by rail and also the market potential is very closely linked. The market opportunities in CT, depending on the quality of combined transport terminals vary considerably. Investment requirements for transport companies, however, are manageable. The additional costs for crane lifting containers in road transport, as compared with conventional semi-trailers, are small. Leasing companies and landlords, have if necessary, appropriate equipment available. For railway companies, the investment risk in CT is very low as practically only standard equipment (locomotives, wagons) is used.

Market penetration – Know-how In the transportation market in almost all countries lack the knowledge about the possibilities of CT. This applies to the shippers, but also, more seriously, for the transport industry. CT plays a minor role in education and training of market participants, so that the possibilities of this mode are not known and will not be exploited. The CT operators and a few railway companies are the few promoters of this mode. The complexity of the mode CT makes it necessary that the cooperation between the public sector (investment in infrastructure), Railway (marketable transport quotes and quality), logisticians (crane Release Equipment and involvement in their own logistics flows) and shippers (advantages and disadvantages of CT) works well, but this is just what is in Eastern Europe and the CIS countries very difficult.

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4.3. Description of the essential administrative and technical barriers to the establishment of intermodal transport As already described, the quality of the interfaces affects much of the quality of the entire KV-offer., This aspect was addressed, business survey in this study. The main barriers to successful deals in CT are therefore: • the existing system differences in the security and power systems within their countries, make it difficult to limit traffic and costs associated with an increased expense. The border crossing points still provide a barrier for handling cross-border transport despite the abolition of border controls after EU enlargement. The required border crossing processes take some time to complete. On the German-Polish border a driver change is usually required. When using One System Locomotive(still the rule) then the locomotive must be replaced. The vehicle technical inspections, customs inspections, testing and delivery of shipping documents can take up to several hours to complete. In chemical transport especially of dangerous goods, other controls can also be necessary. • The high access charges in Poland will affect pricing, and will thus constitute a competitive disadvantage compared to road transport. • Along the PEV II at the EU border between Poland and Belarus, only one track changeover place is available between the standard and broad gauge system. This border crossing with the appropriate gauging or transhipment is in Malaszewicze / Brest. According to market participants here, the changeover procedure is quite time consuming and takes an average of 28 hours. Another increasingly strong demand for alternative cross-border transport therefore is the terminal in Slawkow in which the transition to the Ukrainian broad gauge can be made. This lies however on the PEV III corridor.

Note: The establishment of an appropriate improved border crossing solution for the PEV II already on Polish territory (broad gauge terminal in Poland), would be very desirable and advisable.

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• Apart from the different gauges and the technical interoperability of systems, administrative, linguistic and political barriers exist. For this reason, the transports towards Russia develop with the cooperation of the respective state railways or private Railway Undertakings. • Another problem is the lack of harmonization of security systems and transport accident reporting systems. In particular, for the chemical industry, safety is critical. In Germany, a high level of safety within the program "Responsible Care" has been achieved, given the binding conditions for the production, transport and use of chemical products. The Transport Accident Information and Emergency Response System (TUIS) in Germany has provided a fast, professional and non-bureaucratic help in transport and storage accidents with chemical products for several years. The TUIS database provides public emergency responders such as firefighters or police, fire departments and the Agency for Technical Relief, the identification of hazardous materials during transportation accident involving chemicals and supports the operations management for dangerous goods and hazardous material accidents 1) . In the CIS countries, the establishment of such security systems is still at the planning stage.

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5.

Transport Volume and CT Potential

5.1. Quantitative basis for KV Deal

The necessary quantities for KV offers on PEV II were both determined statistically and by a business survey. There is, as described in the following chapters, a great need for adequate transportation facilities. This applies to the chemical industry in particular, but applies to other transport markets. This demand will grow in the future, which strengthens the prospects for investment in these transport market significantly. Nevertheless, currently there is only limited success in CT and the development of new concepts is very slow. This is due not to insufficient demand, but only to a lack of supply. The reasons for this are in the analysis of the infrastructure requirements (Chapter 6.1) explained in detail.

5.2. Statistically recorded transport streams in PEC II 5.2.1. Importance of the corridor for the East German chemical industry The corridor PEC II is for the central German chemical industry of paramount importance. The strong trade relations and the growing importance of the East as a production facility and the resulting strong growth in transport streams, which are described below demonstrate this clearly. Likewise, this is confirmed by the interviews. One indication of the importance of this corridor is the growing involvement of the logistics service provider to the chemical sector in Poland, Belarus and Russia. The development of cooperation and the (slow) clarification of the more pressing issues to resolve obstacles to simplify handling of intermodal transport are distinct characteristics. The growth prospects, particularly for the railway transport sector should be enhanced by the affinity of the rail corridor located on the country. Both Poland and the former CIS countries (still) have a strong affinity to rail. This is shown in the existing (even if in bad condition) remaining rail transport infrastructure.

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5.2.2. Importance of Rail for the Chemical Industry The importance of rail transport in the chemical industry is traditionally very strong for reasons of security and in some cases very large amounts of transportation, is helping, that rail may in future play a crucial role in the transport on this corridor. This is also reflected in the very close relationship with specialized transport companies in the chemical field again. Especially for the development of railway transport, close cooperation between the shipper and carrier / transport operator is necessary to implement appropriate policies. This cooperative attitude is there in the chemical industry due to the high security requirements and the sometimes very specialized transportation for a long time. The (partial) relatively long-term contractual relationships show the same. They form a positive basis for rail traffic and the high investment required in equipment. This gives the transport market in the chemical industry a system advantage in the implementation of intermodal transport streams.

5.2.3. Development of the freight traffic streams 2005-2009 In addition to the rise in the origin-destination traffic between Germany and Poland, transit volumes have been considered through Germany to / from the Netherlands and Belgium, which transports due to the geographical position of the two countries in the East-West traffic through Germany and along the PEV II. According to available statistics from the Federal Statistical Office and Eurostat, the transport volume of goods 2005-2008 rose by 70% to 25.9 million tons of export-and by 30% in the import market between Germany and Poland, including the transit volumes from / to the Netherlands and Belgium, on the road and rail. As part of the economic crisis, the transport volume of land transport between Germany and Poland has reduced in both directions. According to the development of forecasts of the Federal Office for Freight, the observed effect of the global economic crisis will lead only to a short-to medium-term delay of the positive development and described the long-term revenue growth will be further strengthened 2) Against this background, the present study is based on the revenue figures for the year 2008 without the temporary volume drop in 2009.

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Volume of freight traffic of the surface modes of transport rail/road direction Poland (in 1000t) 30000

25000 24436

25882

23909

20000 1000 t

19812 D/BE/NL-PL

15000 15054 10000

5000

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Years

Figure 2:

Development of the volume of freight traffic of the surface modes of transport rail and road from Germany to Poland including transit Belgium and the Netherlands via Germany

(Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat)

Volume of freight traffic of the surface modes of transport rail/road direction from Poland (in 1000t) 30000

25000 23822

24678

23537

22825

20000 1000 t

18527 15000

PL-D/BE/NL

10000

5000

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Years

Figure 3

Development of the volume of freight traffic of the surface modes of transport rail and road from Poland to Germany including transit to Belgium and the Netherlands via Germany

(Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat)

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5.2.4. Proportion of chemicals in the volume of traffic Because of the rail existing system differences between the European and the Russian railway system and the duplicate shipping documents, there are no reliable data on cross-border services between Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands on the one hand, and the CIS States the other side. The entire railside cross-border traffic has been allocated by the Federal Statistical Office and Eurostat and calculated in the transit country Poland. About a third of the traffic from west to east (31%) is accounted by chemical traffic. In the opposite direction it is only about 16%. However, the basis for rail traffic still assumes a relatively high pairing of transport,

as

the

empty

chemical

containers

or

tank

car

must

be

returned.

In Tables 1 and 2, the total volume transported in 2008, the land transport modes and its interest in chemical

transport

between

Germany

and

Poland

is

presented. Volume of goods 2008 (in 1000 to) DE - PL NL/BE - PL (transit traffic) Total

Table 1:

Rail Road thereof chemical all thereof chemical all commodities goods commodities goods 4420 1592 15607 5150

Total (Rail/Road) thereof chemical all commodities goods 20027 6742

413

73

3869

795

4282

868

4833

1665

19476

5945

24309

7610

Volume of goods of the surface modes of transport from/via Germany to Poland in 1000 tons, 2008

(Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat, 2008)

Volume of goods 2008 (in 1000 to) DE - PL NL/BE - PL (transit traffic) Total

Table 2:

Rail Road thereof chemical all thereof chemical goods commodities goods 507 13392 3004

all commodities 7236

Total (Rail/Road) thereof chemical goods 20628 3511

all commodities

202

23

2653

255

2855

278

7438

530

16045

3259

23483

3789

Volume of goods of the surface modes of transport from Poland to/via Germany in 1000 tons, 2008

(Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Eurostat, 2008) When comparing the two directions of traffic in the East-West traffic, the accumulated volume of freight traffic of the two different modes of land transport in 2008, according to the available data from the Federal Statistical Office and Eurostat vary only slightly. Thus, the export volume of Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium was at 24.3 million tons slightly higher than the import volume from Poland with 23.5 million tons

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5.2.5. Geographic distribution of traffic on the rail (total volume, and chemical goods) Traffic flows were studied in detail. For this, the statistics used are taken from national and European statistical offices. For the East German economy an in-depth quantitative analysis of the traffic was conducted. For this, companies were surveyed, with locations in central Germany, whose production facilities are, however, in some cases outside of this area. West-East-direction The amount transported by rail from Germany to Poland, including the German transit traffic from the Netherlands and Belgium, in 2008 stood at 4.4 million tons lower than the rise of the opposite direction, with 7.3 million tons Ca. half of the volume of goods (44%) came from West Germany and the Benelux countries, another 44% from Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony (each with over 1 million tons) and the remaining volumes from other parts of the republic. The distribution to the individual states is highlighted in the illustrations in figures and in the thickness of the arrows.

Total volume of export goods from Germany to Poland by rail (in 1000 t)

30

3,5

1.042,7

,9 1.958

. Figure 3:

,7 1.082 2,4 30

Total 4.420 Tsd. t

Rail transport West-East total 2008

A large proportion (36%) of total shipments was chemical products. This share for Central Germany was 60% and Saxony-Anhalt, 92%, underscoring the importance of this industry for the region.

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Volume of chemical export goods from Germany to Poland (1000 t)

30

0,4

960,3

257,7

,4 343 0,6

Total 1.592 Tsd. t

Figure 4:

Rail transport West-east chemical goods 2008

The distribution of rail services, particularly for the chemical industry shows the importance of SaxonyAnhalt for a chemical plant and exporter to the East. With nearly 1 million tons of a total of nearly 1.6 million mt (> 60%), Saxony-Anhalt is by far the largest exporter of chemical goods by rail. East-West-Direction Overall, the flows are stronger on the track in East-West direction than in the opposite direction, while the chemical products run much faster in west-east direction. The share of chemical products in total rail traffic is coming from Poland with about 7% or 0.5 million tons less.

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Total volume of import goods from Poland to Germany by rail (1000 t)

594 ,1

540 101,5

,6 3.756

2,3 2.23 11,6

Total 7.236 Tsd. t

Figure 5:

Rail transport East-West total 2008

The largest share of all rail traffic from the east, Saxony has approximately 31%, Saxony-Anhalt here only a share of 1.4%. Volume of chemical import goods from Poland to Germany (1000 t)

1,1

35,2 226,9

,7 178 65

Total 506,9 Tsd. t

Figure 6:

Rail transport East-West chemical goods 2008

The chemical goods by rail to Saxony-Anhalt has a share of just under 7% to which is due to the small volumes. Seite 16

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As written above, the imbalance in traffic flows due to the transport of empty containers for the chemical industry for transport concepts is of minor importance.

5.2.6. Road traffic (total volume, and chemical goods) The road traffic volumes display the potential volume for new rail concepts. The available data base does not allow a similar detailed breakdown of volume by region, as in rail traffic. Volume of export/transit goods from/via Germany to Poland by road (1000 t)

2.315 15.607

Netherlands Belgium

Germany

Poland

1.554

Figure 7:

Road transport West-East total 2008

In the road transport of goods between Germany and Poland, including the transit traffic from / to the Netherlands and Belgium, a total of almost 20 million tons was moved. 75% of revenue came from Germany, and about 25% volume of transit from the Benelux countries. Compared to the 4.4 million tons of rail traffic is therefore once again the 4.5 times the amount carried.

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Volume of chemical export/transit goods from/via Germany to Poland by road (1000 t)

392 5.150

Netherlands Belgium

Poland

Germany 403

Figure 8:

Road transport West-East chemical goods 2008

Dry goods are also on the road with about 31% (6 million tons) which is a significant proportion of the total. Volume of road transport import/transit goods from Poland to/via Germany (1000 t)

1.645 13.392

Netherlands Belgium

Germany

Poland

1.008

Figure 9:

Road transport East-West total 2008

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The volume of road traffic from east to west at around 16 million tons shows a good indication for moving goods to rail. With over 7 million tons, volume in this direction was carried by rail, indicating a higher proportion of bulk commodities / raw materials. Volume of road transport of chemical import/transit goods from Poland to/via Germany (1000 t)

133 3.004

Netherlands Belgium

Germany

Poland

122

Figure 10:

Road transport East-West chemical goods 2008

The share of chemical products located in the east-west road-based transport with 3.3 million tons is almost half as much as in the opposite direction and at least 20% in the share of total traffic is also much lower.

5.2.7. Short-Sea Traffic (Total Volume and Chemical Goods) In addition to the running rail and road freight transport volume, the volume of freight traffic in the shortsea traffic between Germany and Poland was also analysed. Precise statements on the sources and sinks in the short-sea transport of goods transported can not be made because of the lack of available data. The analysis, however, provides valuable insights into the potential relocation of any existing water transport to rail.

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Volume of short sea transport of export goods from Germany to Poland (1000 t)

Bremen 1.399 Tsd. t

Figure 11:

Hamburg 1.619 Tsd. t

Short-Sea transport West-East total 2008

In 2008, about 3 million tons were delivered from the West German ports to Poland. The import traffic from Poland about 0.8 million tons were transported to the port of Hamburg and 0.7 million tonnes to Bremerhaven. These quantities of goods will not immediately but certainly in the long term, be regarded as a potential relocation. Volume of short sea transport of import goods from Poland to Germany (1000 t)

Hamburg 844 Tsd. t Bremen 708 Tsd. t

Figure 12:

Short-Sea transport East-West total 2008

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5.2.8. Modal split of transport (total volume, and chemical goods) As a basis for future CT deals the volumes are to be taken from road traffic statistics. These constitute the vast majority of transport in total freight transport. The distribution of the transport volumes in the study area between the modes is listed again below.

Modal Split (Rail / Road / Short Sea) Total transport volume from Germany to Poland

11%

18%

71%

Rail

Figure 13:

Road

Short Sea

Modal Split West-East total 2008

The results of modal analysis of freight transport volumes of the year 2008 show that the traffic between Germany and Poland, including goods in transit from the Netherlands and Belgium, 18% of the total export revenue and 30% of import volume were made by rail. The largest share fell to the road mode, with 71% in exports and 64% in import. 11% of the total amounts in the transport from Germany to Poland and 6% from Poland to Germany were transported by short sea.

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Modal Split (Rail / Road / Short Sea) Total transport volume from Poland to Germany

6% 30%

64%

Rail

Figure 14:

Raod

Short Sea

Modal Split East-West total 2008

For the transportation of chemical products the Short-Sea volume could not be separately determined due to the lack of data. When looking at the land transport modes, the proportion of road traffic in the export traffic from Germany to Poland was 78% and the proportion of rail traffic, 22%. Modal Split (Rail / Road) Transport volume of chemical goods from Germany to Poland

22%

78%

Rail

Figure 15:

Road

Modal Split West-East chemical goods 2008

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Modal Split (Rail / Road) Transport volume of chemical goods from Poland to Germany

14%

86%

Rail

Figure 16:

Road

Modal Split East-West chemical goods 2008

In the opposite direction 86% were transported by road and 14% were transported by rail. . The analysis of statistical data on the volume of transport in the east-west traffic along the PEC II shows the great potential for a modal shift. To recommend concrete actions, not only the transport volume is important, but also the specific criteria that govern the transport. In a market survey, as carried out below, these criteria were identified.

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5.3. Market survey to identify specific potential shift by 2025 5.3.1. Business Survey in the chemical industry Besides the processing of statistical data, a survey was conducted to determine both the actual transferability of transport streams, as well as to capture the future development of chemical transport goods from the study area. The volume available for a modal split could be identified using the survey between Poland and the CIS states which was not initially possible based on available statistics. For this purpose, seventeen companies were surveyed, which were previously discussed with the project steering committee. The companies are representative of the chemical industry of Saxony-Anhalt. The interviews were mainly with the companies in person, in part carried out by telephone. Respondents were managers or logistics managers of their respective companies. The selection of companies took account of those industries that were classified as part of the preparatory work to be particularly relevant. These are, above all located in Saxony-Anhalt-producing chemical companies, freight forwarding and logistics service providers and infrastructure operators. In addition to information about the current transport volumes and the expected development of medium-and long-term perspective, the information provided by the companies for their requirements and needs were regarding the execution of the transport, logistics and infrastructure interfaces of high relevance. Care was taken that between shippers and shipping companies are no duplicate quantities are recorded and counted. This was always subject to questioning, and then checked. The identification of potential took place under a conservative view, that is only by the companies interviewed explicitly mentioned quantities considered in the transport corridor PEC II and provided the competitiveness of combined transport over road transport are considered, were fed into the evaluation. Are the amounts in other sizes as specified annual volumes (eg, amount per week or traffic-day), they were projected with 250 service days or 50 weeks per year to transport the annual volumes. Thirteen of seventeen respondents have given qualified information on the relevant issues. Only four of the aforementioned companies have not shown a specific interest in the subject. Nine of the companies contacted have traffic on the relevant Eastern European relations. The response of the companies surveyed in relation to the use of CT can be described as very positive. All nine companies that have the relevant public transport corridor quantities, express a willingness to relocate existing road traffic but also to new traffic (new acquisitions) on the rail. The survey results are explained in detail. By the above companies amounts relate largely to the year 2008 as the year 2009 was affected by the consequences of the economic crisis and had accordingly reduced transport volumes. For 2010 and 2011

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the surveyed companies expected a significant increase in the quantities to the level of 2008. The values from the year 2009 would therefore lead to an unrealistic picture. Only in individual companies, which were affected only slightly by the general economic crisis, could the values in 2009 be used.

5.3.2. Potential relocation of the Central German chemical industry in tons The survey conducted in the central German chemical company found in west-east direction from road to rail transport a displaceable amount of about 1.3 million tons per year. Assuming that this potential is currently all the traffic being handled, this represents a potential shift of about 22% over the entire road transport of chemical goods (total about 6 million tons, see Figure 9). This portion of the total volume is in the light of the high affinity of the chemical industry for the railways to be regarded as realistic. The following Table 3 and Table 4 show a detailed representation of the transport volume of the companies surveyed in the region of PEC II and the determined displacement potentials. The displacement potentials are each represented as a total per company and as a total amount per country. Company F has traffic in the area of PEC II, but wanted to give for reasons of confidentiality, no details of quantities and origin or destination countries.

Participants

Poland

Russia

Ukraine / Belarus / Baltic Countries

of which relocatable traffic revenue (t per year)

A

2.050

0

0

2.050

B

3.000

2.400

1.320

0

C

0

2.400

0

0

D

9.654

11.095

4.755

9.654

E

300.000

675.000

450.000

1.091.250

F

k.A.

k.A.

k.A.

k.A.

G

35.228

0

0

24.596

H

125.000

25.000

0

150.000

I

4.100

3.600

2.800

10.500

Sum

479.032

719.495

458.875

1.288.050

of wich relocateable traffic revenue (t per year)

165.400

669.850

452.800

Table 3:

Total transport volume in West-East direction according to companies and destinations 2008 and thereof derivated relocatable volumes

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

In the opposite direction, no volumes are classified as displaced.

Participants

Poland

Russia

Ukraine / Belarus / Baltic Countries

of which relocatable traffic revenue (t per year)

A

4.200

0

0

0

B

0

0

0

0

C

4.000

0

0

0

D

0

0

0

0

E

0

0

0

0

F

k.A.

k.A.

k.A.

k.A.

G

3.952

0

0

3.952

H

0

0

0

0

I

0

0

0

0

Sum

12.152

0

0

3.952

of wich relocateable traffic revenue (t per year)

3.952

0

0

Table 4:

Total transport volume in East-West-direction according to companies and destinations anf thereof derivated relocateable volumes

The imbalance in the high transport volumes in the traffic between the Western and Eastern European countries is explained by the design of external trade relations in the chemical industry. The German chemical companies export to Eastern Europe, significant amounts of high-quality manufactured goods. The Eastern European countries supply them with raw materials, which are often delivered by pipelines. The low import volumes tend to lead to the deterioration of capacity utilization and thus constitute a risk to the relocation options. However, at the same time, especially in the field of chemical goods, the return of empty transport vessels is necessary due to the essential cleaning procedures. This means that the pairing is the transportation in many places in the intermodal transport, despite the high differences in transported tonnage given for each direction. This is particularly true for liquid assets. And they do, as the figure 18 shows, with 75% of the bulk of the flows of goods.

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Kinds of Commodities 6% 19%

75%

chemical liquids

Figure 17:

packaged goods

unpackaged goods

Kinds of commodities of chemical goods of the stated relocateable volumes 2008

Regarding the calculated potential shift the liquid chemical products account for about 75%, the largest share of the revenue. Packaged goods account for around 19% and non-packaged goods account for around 6%. With a total of 1.3 million tons displaceable amounts the great need for adequate rail transportation solutions in the corridor PEC II, the survey has become very clear. However, it was clear that this volume is intended mainly for much of the CIS. The transportation lane Germany - Poland with 480,000 t has only a 37% share of potential. A company has a significant share of the potential given CT volume. This advantage for a CT-concept, can be determined because the requirements for a concept are concrete and thus easier to implement. Other users can benefit from this. 4.3.3. Future development of the displacement potentials Given the investment required, the development of perspective in the coming years is a key variable for or against new combined offerings. The surveyed companies were asked to assess the development for their respective volumes. Accordingly, these estimates can be expected with a strong increase of the shift amounts: in the medium term until the year 2015 to 2.9 million tons of potential and a long-term perspective by the year 2025 to 4.3 million tons of export potential. The optimistic growth rates can be personalized with the planned business expansion strategies and justify the construction of production facilities in Eastern Europe. Background for this optimistic view is the dynamic economic development of the CIS countries, which offer a good opportunity for the

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development of the chemical industry. In Figure 19, the designated development scenarios were projected over 15 years from 2010 to 2025.

Development of relocateable transport revenue of polled comapnies (1000t/year) 5.000 4.500 4.000

1000 t/year

3.500 3.000 2.500

West-East direction

2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Years

Table 18:

Prognosis of the development of the relocateable transport revenue in West-East direction of the polled comapnies 2010-2025

These projected quantities of up to 4.3 million tons are an excellent basis for the development of new combined offerings. For the concretization of these offers the exact geographical distribution is of major importance, as is necessary in CT to provide the strongest possible bundling of transport streams.

5.3.3. . Geographic distribution of the displacement potential

The following figures show the geographical distribution of the CT potential in west-east direction (the opposite direction as described above has an insignificant amount). The figures illustrate the transport streams for CT-bundling where possible. To forecast the future development, in addition to the status quo (2008) two scenarios for the years 2015 and 2025 are shown. Furthermore, for clarity, transport volumes have been converted into the number of full containers (each 20 tons net) and the potential number of weekly CT trains (each of 60 containers). This assumed a relatively high level of utilization of both the container and the full trains to give a conservative estimate of the train numbers.

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Relocation Verlagerungspotential potential of der surveyed befragten companies Unternehmen in export im to eastern Europe Exportverkehr alongside nach the Osteuropa Corridor II (t, entlang 2008)des PEV II (in t, 2008) Sankt Sankt Petersburg Petersburg

t

0t .30 499

2000

t 750 33.

t 00 6.8 13

tt ..885500 666699

Nizhnij Nizhnij Nowgorod Nowgorod Moskau Moskau

660000 tt

NL NL BE BE

50* t 1.288.0

00 tt 165.4 165.400 Kiew Kiew

445522.0 .00000 tt

Figure 19:

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2008

Potential to shift from the result of the companies surveyed 52% of export deliveries in Russia traffic, 35% will be transported to Ukraine and Belarus and 13% to Poland. Estimation of the medium term relocation potential according to company survey (in t, 2015) Sankt Petersburg

0 6.8

232 t

t

0 1.2

t

Nizhnij Nowgorod Moskau

0t

8.7

981 83.

0 .01 338

1.62

90 t

696 t

NL BE

217 t 2.947.

t 195.436 Kiew

1.122.0 63 t

Figure 20:

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2015

With the anticipated increase in export volumes, the transport volume to Russia and Ukraine by the year 2015 is more than double. The transport volumes to Poland and Belarus rise in this period by 20%. This gives a total of 2.9 million tons

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Estimation of the long term relocation potential according to company survey (in t, 2025) Sankt Petersburg

t 31 2

t

50 2 78.

2.8

2 .31 124

t

1.7

2 .05 500

Nizhnij Nowgorod Moskau

t

2.40

67 t 935 t

NL BE

793 t 4.307.

243.149 t Kiew

1.660.6 61 t

Figure 21:

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2025

In the long-term perspective, the total volume developed in 2025 to 4.3 million tons, whereby the export volume to Russia and Ukraine increases to 350% from the latest transport volume and the transport amount to Poland and Belarus to 150%. Relocation potential of surveyed companies in export to eastern Europe alongside the Corridor II (Container/Year and trains per week, 2008) Sankt Petersburg

8 1.6

40 6 .8

8

[ 11

64.403

10

965 24.

] /W x

93 33.4 30

8.270

[3x

/ W] Kiew

[8x / W]

Figure 22:

Nizhnij Nowgorod Moskau

22.600

Geographical distribution of relocateable volumes 2008 in Container per year an trains per

week

There are an annual total quantity of 64 403 containers (with an average weight per container of 20 tons) which could be shifted from the present road to rail. For this number of containers at least 22 full trains per week to the East need.

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Estimation of the medium term relocation potential according to company survey (Container/Year and trains per week, 2015) Sankt Petersburg

9

901

9 4.1

16.

60.

[ 27

NL BE

x

12

Nizhnij Nowgorod Moskau

40 81.4 35

9.772

1 147.36

[3x

/ W] Kiew

56.103 / W]

[ 19 x

Figure 23:

340

] /W

Geographical distribution of relocatebale volumes 2015 in Containern per year and trains per

week

The increase in the number of containers reflect the growing tonnage in 2015 to 147 361. For the transport of this volume of containers, 49 block trains per week could be used. Estimation of the long term relocation potential according to company survey (Container/Year and trains per week, 2025) Sankt Petersburg

6

003

1 6.2

25.

16

925 88.

] /W [ 40

.143 12 0

x

Nizhnij Nowgorod Moskau

47

NL BE

4 215.39

12.157

/ W] Kiew

[ 28 x

Figure 24:

[4x 83.031 / W]

Geographical Distribution of relocateable volumes 2025 in Container per year and trains per

week

In 2025 this number increased to 215 394 containers weekly and 72 trains.

For the calculation of the required CT terminal capacity per year, the number of containers is doubled, because the containers will be handled in each direction. The result for the year 2015 required handling Seite 31

Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

capacity of 300,000 containers for the chemical industry alone. This figure rises to 2025 to about 430,000 containers a year.

The existing intermodal terminal infrastructure in Germany is currently not ready for this number of containers and trains, as in Chapter 6. The volume transported in the CIS countries is subject, however to a number of specific requirements. Therefore the following chapter specifically addressed the pure-EU traffic, where it is much faster and easier to implement new concepts. Their total volume is also limited enough for new combined offerings.

5.3.4. Geographical distribution of the potentials Germany – Poland The following analysis of the Polish-German traffic flow of the chemical industry has two objectives: 1. Concrete geographical overview of the distribution and concentration potential of traffic flows, and 2. The definition of infrastructure nodes which could be used as a possible hub station in the future, The evidence on flows of goods is exclusively drawn from the business survey, as a specific spatial arrangement of this was possible. The comparison with the statistical basis is possible only in general terms due to the rough data available. The production sites of the companies surveyed are for the most part in Germany and to a lesser extent in the Netherlands and Belgium. Shift to rail potential of surveyed companies in transport between Germany and Poland (in 1000 t) 2010

0,5

Total 165.4 Tsd. t

0,6

6,6

23

14

2,7 30

2,1

6,6

20 0,2 0,3

131,7

2,2 0,4

4 0,2

7,4 75 0,6 Railway nodes: southern Saxony-Anhalt and Poznan 6,6

0,9 0,5

Figure 25:

Origins and destinations of the shift to rail potential of the surveyed companies in freight transport between Germans and Poland

Starting from the south of Saxony-Anhalt can combine the shipping volume to the area around Posen. Within Poland are transported to the east approximately equal volumes in the corridor PEC II and south towards Silesia.

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Based on these flows there is a need for cargo handling capacity in southern Saxony-Anhalt as well as in the area around Posen. In the interviews conducted a potential shift of the transports to Poland make up about 3% of today in the statistically reported road traffic chemistry transport. It is therefore a very conservative calculation of the potentially achievable revenue. The results are clear that the transport volume of the chemical industry between Germany and Poland is not sufficient to justify their own logistics solutions and infrastructure investment. It is therefore necessary to include, as in the following analysis of the terminal development, other freight flows in the analysis.

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6.

CT-Terminals

6.1. Analysis of the CT-Terminals along the PEC II 6.1.1. Function of CT-Terminals For the evaluation of intermodal terminal facilities is especially critical to the available capacity of envelopes quantities. The capacity of combined transport terminals, however, is made up of many components. Therefore, it can not be determined absolutely but only relative to a specific need. For the evaluation of CT systems on the PEC II, therefore, a separate system was developed to ensure comparability with the existing terminal and allows an assessment of the quality. Nevertheless, such an evaluation may also never be absolutely considered. The functionality of the combined transport terminals as the end point of traffic (for loading cargo units on trucks) compared to the hub function (the change from one train to another train), is complex again. Both functions can in principle be available at each terminal. The hub function is especially interesting for CT operators when frequent departures will be offered in order to combine as many load units. It is also desirable that the transfer of train to train is fast and inexpensive, which in turn depends on the specific layout and equipment of the terminal. This function is therefore related to the corridor only to the PolishBelarussian border (Brest-Malaszewicze). Here you will find a natural place because there is no track gauge change. All other sites are dominated by local traffic. In southern Saxony-Anhalt all terminals are determined primarily by local revenues and Schkopau largely only for the chemical industry.

6.1.2. Terminal evaluation criteria - general criteria The performance of a combined transport terminals is determined primarily by the following criteria: • Location of the terminal to the existing local and regional markets and the national transport corridors and the accessibility of the source and destination; • Operationally simple platform feeder for a quick and cost-effective railway transport process, less time spent on the necessary shunting, electrification of the line, cost of infrastructure use; • Frequency and range of destinations; • Coordinated configuration of the terminal, which consists of track capacity in the handling area, capacity of handling facilities and equipment, and storage capacity for containers secondment; • Container Depot; • parking and buffer areas for the existing tracks in order to respond flexibly to the particular volume;

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• Price for handling services; • operator structure; • Openness in operation for all users and quality of the handling operations; • Influence on shunting and resulting shunting. These general criteria are complemented by the specific requirements of the chemical industry: • Equipment for terminals for the storage and handling of hazardous materials of different classes; • Temperature-controlled stations; • Safety equipment. Additional services such as cleaning of containers, any loading and unloading and container repairs are also of great importance, but can be retrofitted to almost any terminal.

6.1.3. Analysis of combined transport terminals in the PEC II – Procedures The analysis of the existing terminals on the PEC II, in turn, has two main objectives. Determine the • capacity, • and assessment of suitability as a hub site. The capacity will be matched against the projected revenue. If there is insufficient capacity, a development of the capacity is recommended. The need for hub functionality can be determined using the geographic distribution of traffic flows. In Germany, the following terminals are included in the study:

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Berlin Westhafen Wustermark Frankfurt Frankfurt(Oder) (Oder) Brandenburg Großbeeren Eisenhüttenstadt Eisenhüttenstadt

40.000

57.500 80.000

5.000 120.000

5.000

Halle (Saale)

90.000

Schkopau Leipzig-Wahren

Figure 26:

90.000 154.000

Terminal locations and capacity in Germany alongside Pan-European Transport Corridor II

The following terminals have been taken into account in Poland (including Brest, Belarus):

Mlawa

Rzepin

24.000

Kobylnica Poznan

Warszawa (2x)

Gadki

Pruszkow Lodz

Figure 27:

Brest

11.520

20.000

24.000 40.000 + 14.400

250.000

26.500 75.000

Malaszewicze 50.000

80.300

Terminal locations and capacity in Poland (50 km around Pan European Transport Corridor II)

In Russia, the following terminal regions of Moscow and Nizhniy Novgorod were considered:

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Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Moscow (Nizhny Novgorod)

12.000 50.000

60.000

120.000 20.000 50.000

40.000 50.000

Figure 28:

Terminal locations and capacity in Russia

The importance and suitability of the existing terminals for the handling of chemical transport in Germany and Poland were evaluated in this investigation based on the quality of the infrastructure facilities, the capacity and expandability. A specially developed criteria matrix was the basis for the assessment of individual terminals as well as highlighting the specific strengths and weaknesses with respect to the handling of chemical cargo. The analysis was based on the specific logistical requirements of the chemical industry and logistics service providers, which have been addressed in the conducted interviews. Terminals can be substantially catalogued through their capacity. This is limited by several factors. In essence, these are the track capacity in the handling area, the storage capacity for intermodal units, capacity of handling equipment and accessibility to rail transport. Different functions of terminals, eg as the endpoint of logistics chains or as a "hub site", the capacitance values change only slightly. Crucial in the evaluation is always that terminal capacity is not a "fixed" size. Although it can not be arbitrarily extended, but with well-appropriate facilities (punctuality of rail and road transport, quality of handling performance, scheduling at the terminal, existing IT support, existing technical facilities, etc.) to improve greatly. For this assessment carried out in each of the criteria and sub criteria were marked with dots. For the individual sub-criteria each were awarded between one and three points. The criteria were further weighted according to their importance. The assessment scheme and the weights (in% in brackets) are shown below:

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1. Terminal Equipment Track length (45%)

1 Point: no train length track 2 Points: 1-2 train length tracks (600m or longer) 3 Points: more than 2 train length tracks (600m or longer)

No. of tracks(45%)

1 Point: 1 Handling track 2 Points: 2-4 Handling tracks 3 Points: more than 4 Handling tracks

Equipment (10%)

1 Point : only Reach Stacker 2 Points: 1 crane (plus perhaps Reach Stacker) 3 Points: 2or more cranes (plus perhaps. Reach Stacker)

2. Capacity of the Terminal Theoretical Capacity (40%)

1 Point: 5.000-50.000 TEU/a 2 Points: 50.001-100.000 TEU/a 3 Points: more than 100.000 TEU/a

Utilisation(60%)

1 Points: no free capacity 2 Points: minimal free capacity 3 Points sufficient free capacity

3. Development Potential 1 Point: no development possible 2 Points: development possible but not planned 3 Points: development planned

The study area includes the PEC II in Germany and Poland, and an area about 50 km north and south of the corridor. In addition, the terminal Brest in Belarus and terminals in the metropolitan areas of Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in Russia are considered. In addition, the three terminals in the catchment area of the chemical industry in Southern Saxony-Anhalt (Halle, Leipzig-Wahren and Schkopau) were involved in the assessment. Terminals with a capacity of less than 5,000 TEU / a were not included in the assessment

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These criteria were, when available, used for the regionally selected terminals. The values are mainly from the data of the terminal operators. Not all values were available for all terminals, so that individual data were estimated with reference to similar systems. Particularly for the terminals in Russia, the availability of data was difficult. It should be noted that the terminals in Malaszewicze and Brest are mainly used for transhipment between the European standard gauge and the Russian broad-gauge system and are therefore limited compared with the other terminals. In Table 5 the results of the evaluation are shown divided by country. This summary is for comparative description of terminals, and should not be understood as a ranking.

CIS

Poland

Germany

Terminal

Table 5:

Terminal infrastructure

Capacity/ Capacity utilisation

Extension possibilities

Result

Leipzig-Wahren Großbeeren Halle Frankfurt Oder Schkopau Wustermark Berlin Westhafen Pruszkow Malaszewicze Lodz Mlawa Warszawa Praga Kobylnica Rzepin Gadki Warszawa Glowna Towarowa Poznan Garbary Brest Moskau Podolsk Moskau Juzhnyj Nizhnij Nowgorod Logoprom Nizhnij Nowgorod Kostariha Moskau Kuncewo II Moskau Tuchkowo Moskau Ecodor Moskau Kresty

2,50 2,30 1,70 1,70 1,80 1,70 1,80 1,70 2,30 2,30 1,50 1,00 1,50 1,80 1,00 1,50 1,50 2,30 1,50 2,30 2,10 2,10 2,30 1,50 1,30 1,00

2,65 2,65 2,35 2,35 2,00 2,35 2,35 2,35 1,65 1,65 1,70 1,35 1,35 1,35 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,65 3,00 1,70 1,70 1,70 2,00 1,70 1,00 1,00

2,00 2,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 3,00 3,00 2,00 3,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 1,00 3,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 1,00 2,00 1,00 1,00

Weighting

40%

40%

20%

2,46 2,38 2,22 2,22 2,12 2,02 1,86 2,22 2,18 1,98 1,88 1,54 1,54 1,46 1,40 1,40 1,20 1,78 2,40 2,00 1,92 1,92 1,92 1,68 1,12 1,00

Assessment of Terminals in the analysed area

The quality of infrastructure is given in the following Table 6.

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Polen

Deutschland

Final Report Intermodal Transport System „ChemLog“

Table 6:

Terminal

Length of tracks

Number of tracks

Handling equipment

Halle Schkopau Leipzig-Wahren Berlin Westhafen Wustermark Großbeeren Frankfurt Oder Rzepin Poznan Garbary Gadki Kobylnica Lodz Pruszkow Warszawa Praga Warszawa Glowna Towarowa Mlawa Malaszewicze Brest Moskau Ecodor Moskau Kuncewo II Moskau Tuchkowo Moskau Podolsk Moskau Juzhnyj Moskau Kresty Nizhnij Nowgorod Logoprom Nizhnij Nowgorod Kostariha

635 420 700 350 610 700/350 645/575 150 150 300 555/479 700 600/350 320 350 300 794/792/590/149 1000/600/400 250 1000 300 300/200 400/800 300 250/300 400/500

2 2 4 2 2 2/2 1/1 2 3 1 1/1 2 2/1 1 2 2 1/1/1/1 1/2/1 1 2 2 2/1 1/1 1 2 2/1

2 Reach Stacker 1 Crane 2 Cranes 1 Crane/1 Reach Stacker 2 Reach Stacker 2 Cranes 2 Reach Stacker 1 Crane Reach Stacker 3 Reach Stacker 2 Reach Stacker 2 Cranes/2 Reach Stacker 8 Reach Stacker 3 Reach Stacker Reach Stacker 3 Reach Stacker 3 Cranes/ 1 Reach Stacker 12 Cranes 1 Crane 2 Cranes/1 Reach Stacker 2 Reach Stacker 5 Reach Stacker 2 Cranes, 3 Reach Stacker 2 Reach Stacker 2 Cranes/ 1 Reach Stacker 3 Cranes

Infrastructure of terminals in the analysed area

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6.1.4. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with the forecasted demand – Germany

222.500 /5 85.000 / 2 330.000 /3

Figure 29:

Aggregation of regional terminal capacities in Germany

The red terminals clustered in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt have only a limited capacity available. The blue-marked clusters within PEV II offer a total of even greater capacity, however, their suitability for the chemical industry in Saxony-Anhalt is limited. As a potential volume of future traffic in Section 5.3, 300,000 TEUs for the year 2015 and about 430,000 TEU in 2025 alone were determined for the chemical industry for the region. The total in the region is currently 330 000 TEU handled, many units from other industries. Unfortunately, the exact percentage is not established. If one market conditions of the entire traffic (Figure 8 and Figure 9) is based, there is a share of just 103 000 TEU, almost a third. This corresponds to the emergence of Schkopau of 90,000 TEU plus additional units at the terminals Halle and Leipzig. In each case, however, is the existing capacity significantly below the projected demand. Especially for the chemical industry, therefore, an expansion of terminal capacity is strongly recommended.

6.1.5. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with the forecasted demand – Poland For the German chemical industry and new combined offerings has become clear that the potential volume is for the most part in the CIS. Thus, for Poland in particular the border crossing to Belarus is important. This applies to the infrastructure, as well as for the quality of processing. Seite 41

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Overall, for the chemical industry of an additional volume of today 66 000 TEU (outward and return journey of the empty containers) in 2015 from 160,000 TEUs from 240,000 TEUs in 2025 is assumed (see Section 5.3). But the border crossing Brest / Malaszewicze is not equipped today. Furthermore, in Poland, the site poses an important hub for rail transport within Poland. Here, too, a potential volume of 165,000 t has been determined, which is currently not covered by the existing capacity. The current construction of a terminal operator and the planned completion in 2011 is also an indication of the potential. The Warsaw area is not suitable as a hub function for the corridor, because there is already another area on the Belarus border to take transhipment. Warsaw is therefore of interest in CT only as a target market or source.

70.500 / 3 153.400 / 4

11.520

250.000

80.300 50.000

Figure 30:

Aggregation of regional terminal capacities in Poland

6.1.6. Comparison of the existing intermodal terminal capacity with the forecasted demand – Russia The existing terminals for intermodal transport in Russia are much more difficult to assess, since there is only limited information available. To what extent the capacities for KV are actually available, not to determine without extensive research and site visit and is also still dependent on others, such as political factors. Seite 42

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There are around Moscow, some sites that offer services for intermodal transport. Few, however, also offer hazardous handling with sufficient security measures for the chemical industry. Overall, the terminals are too small to really concentrate significant revenue. A consolidated development of some well-connected major terminal facilities for hazardous materials is urgently needed. For Nizhny Novgorod, this applies even to a greater extent. There are two sites available whose capacity is assessed as low.

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7.

New rail concept

7.1. Rail transport services in CT As mentioned above, there is a rapidly growing demand for transport services on the CT-PEC II, the demand is there in large measure even today, especially in the CIS. The existing combined transport terminals suitable for realization of the demand are not sufficient to provide the necessary throughput. However, the realization of the KV-concepts is only possible if adequate rail transportation services may be offered. This possibility is currently only available up to the EU's external border. Within the CIS countries liberalization has towards market-oriented rail traffic has not been practical. Some steps to improve quality are indeed done, but a continuous reliability in the transport chain is still very difficult to manufacture. The main hurdles for the realization of combined concepts are therefore the construction of terminals and a market-oriented development and modernization of the railway sector. This development is still not complete within its borders. The German-Polish border remains an operational and administrative obstacle. Significantly smaller than between Poland and the CIS countries, but definitely still a significant cost factor in the rail logistics. Examples will be described in order to make clear at this point a continuous rail transport concept Germany-Poland the benefits of technological and administrative overcome the borders to international rail transport and in particular for the KV.

7.2. Transport technology for cross-border rail service In contrast to today, the still common traction change (locomotive and driver change) at the border due to the use of different locomotives brings the consistent use of locomotives significant logistical advantages. Railway companies, which have adapted technically to such a benefit, may now make such trips. However, the necessary equipment and training is relatively expensive. From the quantitative analysis (Chapter 5.3.5), there is an appreciable shift in potential for chemical transport from central Germany, especially into the area Poses. It was in the analysis, however, also clear that the chemical transport is not sufficient for an independent logistics concept. Other streams must also be included. An imaginable concept or product for railway undertakings may therefore be a concept of operations for shuttle trains between two terminals in the area south of Saxony-Anhalt and the area around Poses. For the offer in combined transport this combination delivers a much greater variety of destinations to be

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offered. For this purpose, reducing the duration of the handling of train to train to a minimum in order to remain competitive against road transport is essential.

The exemplary operational concept could be realized in the following manner: • goods are on road and rail in southern Saxony-Anhalt (D) collected and provided in a wagon train • A two-system locomotive (D / PL) is coupled in front of the wagon train • The locomotive pulls the train to Poznan (PL) without traction changes • The locomotive is uncoupled from the train set and waits for return • The goods are distributed in Poland on road and rail • New items are on road and railway in Poznan (PL) collected and provided in a wagon train • The multi-system locomotive (D / PL) is harnessed to the wagon train new • The locomotive pulls the train to southern Saxony-Anhalt (D) without traction changes • The goods are distributed in Germany by road and rail Effects of new transport and concept of operation: • Operational simplification of cross-border traffic • Better optimization options for railway undertakings • Increased predictability for suppliers and customers • Linking with other transport networks road and rail at both sites • High diversity • Suitable site infrastructure necessary to minimize the loss of time • Integration of all types of goods outside the chemical industry Technologically, such a concept is already implemented. The biggest challenge for intermodal operators is to add new compounds that have the necessary pooling of revenues. As mentioned above in the quantitative analysis (Chapter 5.3) sufficient quantities in the chemical transport between Germany and Poland not alone sufficient for such a concept. A realization would therefore only be considered if this other volume could be concentrated. This must be determined by the market operators involved and not subject to this investigation. In general, a hub strategy possible, especially with an excellent local usage (see Ludwigshafen BASF terminal between ARA ports and northern Italy). This would be both for the area south of Saxony-Anhalt (especially for the

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chemical industry)and for the area around Poses (as nodes for rail and road transport) in Poland. Both sites involved would act as a hub and the local service provider would organize the redistribution of railway traffic on different modes of transport. This in principle, could be a model to all border crossings or other natural or administrative obstacles may be advantageous. Depending on volume, pooling capabilities and logistical concepts of intermodal operators, such concepts are feasible. The border with Belarus and to Russia is considered necessary because of the course maintenance to something different. Here's the logistical failure of railway transport is necessary anyway. This would lead to a shuttle service to and provide for this natural hold. This could be analogous to the model described above can also be realized already today from the west. At the same time, however, the link with further traffic is necessary to the east. For this purpose, as already described other conditions created in order to obtain liberalization in the EU, in Russia. Despite this resistance, it must be long-term goal of the rail industry to install a powerful offer on the Russian side.

6.3. Analysis of a cross-border rail concept A new concept of operations corresponding to a shuttle train between the southern Saxony-Anhalt and Posen (hereinafter called the creator) is competing primarily with the road. For the actual ratio of SaxonyAnhalt to Poznan, the truck is a direct competitor. Here, the concept its competitiveness through a very efficient use of equipment and resulting low prices, and good quality service in the claim. In connection with lifting capabilities at either or even both terminals, so the connection with other secondary features are other aspects of great importance. The concept is for the client only one of several members of the transport chain and it must fit smoothly into the overall priority transport chain. This is the fastest possible transfer of cargo units including the change points, no significant additional costs of interfaces, and no loss in reliability. Regarding the costs, the concept needs to measure its hub function with other direct KV offers. Especially the extra envelopes and the possible "detours" in comparison with the direct path may be mentioned. The operating concept must therefore be implemented as effectively as possible, in order to compete in inter-and intra-modal competition. A railroad operating concept is in its cost (unit costs per transported unit) is very strongly dependent on the exact satisfaction of needs. For over or under capacity, the concept for the market will tend to be interesting since it is either expensive or poor quality. The following is a summary (Table 7) three examples of operational scenarios for the realization of the concept listed with different capacities. Important are the number of available spaces in TEUs. There, the

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difference between the scenarios is particularly clear. The costs per parking space remain comparatively similar. As a basis, a service between the terminals Poznan and Schkopau was chosen. All three scenarios were subjected to a rough costing. The examples show that the train may well be flexible in dealing with different requirements and volume forecasts, without price and logistically missing the market requirements. The calculations of the cost of the new operational concept based on the following parameters: engine costs, car costs, costs of infrastructure use, energy costs, labor and overhead costs. Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Number of locomotives used

1

1

1

Number of train sets used of 31 waggons Sgns691

3

1

1

Number of departures offerd per week and direction Number of TEU storing positions offered per week and direction

4

2

1

372

186

93

Otherwise use of locomotive and waggons (yes/no)

no

no

yes

Assumed utilisation ratio in procent

75

75

75

3.340.000 €

1.792.600 €

852.000 €

119,7 €

128,5 €

122,2 €

Total Cost Concept per year

. Costs per TEU storing position with 75% utilisation Table 7:

Cost comparison of 3 scenarios for intermodal rail transport concepts

The following Figure 32 and Figure 34 represent the shares of the cost calculation, which change slightly depending on the parameters of the respective scenarios. Szenario 1: Cost fraction of block train DE-PL

Locomotive Waggons Staff

€ 2.783,33 (17%)

€ 2.323,13 (14%)

€ 400,00 (2%)

Infrastructure usage Energy Shunting Overhead

€ 1.961,54 (12%) € 4.262,32 (26%)

€ 3.903,68 (23%) € 1.065,97 (6%)

Total cost per round trip: 16.700 €

Figure 31:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 372 TEU)

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Szenario 2: Cost Fraction of block train DE-PL

€ 2.987,71 (17%)

Locomotive € 4.646,25 (25%) Waggons

€ 400,00 (2%)

Staff

€ 1.961,54 (11%)

Infrastructure usage

€ 4.262,32 (24%)

Energy € 2.602,45 (15%) Shunting € 1.065,97 (6%) Overhead

Total cost per round trip: 17.926 €

Figure 32:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 186 TEU)

Szenario 3: Cost Fraction of block train DE-PL

€ 3.320,75 (17%) € 3.709,03 (17%) € 400,00 (2%)

Locomotive Waggons

€ 1.961,54 (12%)

Staff Infrastructure usage € 3.569,07 (21%)

Energy

€ 4.262,32 (25%)

€ 1.065,97 (6%)

Shunting Overhead

Total cost per round trip: 17.040 €

Figure 33:

Cost fraction block train (Capacity 93 TEU)

It is evident that even for small quantities of economically attractive rail service is also available internationally. This optimization possibilities in the future, it can seem much easier to implement CT concepts.

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7.3.

Rail Infrastructure

Important in this context is the path capacity of the railway infrastructure company. Cross-border transport concepts, especially when linked to transport "hubs" is concerned, are very dependent on good quality train paths. Given the still relatively limited number of rail concepts in the West-East transport, capacity for crossborder transport is sufficient. Chapter 5 describes the development of demand, and strong growth is assumed. The corridor PEC II is the only continuous electrified rail corridor between Germany and Poland. This can and will constitute a bottleneck in the future. Therefore, alternatively, another corridor for electrified rail transport should be set up, as is done currently for the PEC III. This corridor has for the chemical industry in Saxony-Anhalt, an equally prominent role.

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8.

Alternative handling techniques

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Handling equipment for intermodal transport is largely standardized and especially in the marine transport of maritime containers, such standardization has proven to be an essential element of success. Despite this standardization, however, there are areas related to intermodal transport, which requires handling with other appropriate technology. This is especially so in those cases where is no need for a standardized terminal equipment due to the very low utilization generally. Furthermore, there is traffic with non cranable goods that require special handling equipment that can also be developed for CT. And as the last area is the terminals in which goods can be handled under the overhead wire. Here are, along with standard handling equipment are three fundamentally different alternatives briefly described, which have proven to be usable in practice. There are many other systems but they are similar in principle to those described and offer no advantages in everday practice. The mobile technology enables the handling of cargo handling terminal units when cranes are not available. Applications are having particular regions, the small quantities and no terminal. The structural requirements for making possible the use of mobile technology are an existing loading track (which can be electrified) and a loading road. This system is a specially equipped truck that moved on hydraulic, fixed to the chassis is mounted lifting thrust beams, by which the unit loads weighing up to 32 tons are moved from trucks to rail wagon or the other way around. In this way, container, containers, swap bodies, prefabricated products, flats, etc. can be handled. Similarly, regional transport can be to be loaded onto the rail as a feeder. The use of this mobile-system of the handling and ramp service will be carried out by ist driver. There is therefore no need for special ramps or other railway equipment modules such as on the wagon. The Mobile is successfully in use in some regions of Europe, eg in Austria at the RCA. Another innovative handling technology is the side-loader. These are, vehicles that are used especially during transport and handling of ISO containers. Two crane devices that are attached to the ends of the semi-trailer, the separate loading and unloading of containers at terminals and at the sender and receiver is performed. In a direct transhipment from rail to road, the load by means of ropes, chains or spreader is managed regardless of the external infrastructure. The sideloading technique is used in ports and allows the handling without ramps and crane. Here too, all the

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technology needed is on the truck. Railway side no special equipment is required. Side loaders are available with a lifting capacity of up to 40 tonnes. Modalohr is a wagon-based technology with low-floor vehicles with double joint, allowing a rapid handling of semi-trailers between rail and road. Another known technique is the Cargo Beamer, which is basically the same. For loading and unloading operations the rotating carriage is placed on specific, fixed ramps. The technique is primarily aimed at transportation markets, which have few cranable semi-trailers and swap bodies. The ability to transport all types of semi-trailers has resulted in new opportunities especially in Eastern Europe. However, the disadvantage of this technique is the limited usefulness. Neither the coaches nor the terminals can be used for conventional containers. This, and the fact that the cars are around 100% more expensive means that the technically successful operations in France, Italy and Luxembourg are dependent on subsidies in infrastructure and operations. The particular characteristics of Modalohr system are: • Use of specially developed for this two-piece units with standard car-bogies; • suitability for the transport of all types of tractor-trailers; • shipment of tractors and trailers on separate cars; • Fast and simultaneous loading of several truck is possible; • tractors (and drivers) must not necessarily be transported together; • Transport of trailer units is not, or only with considerable additional loss of payload space possible; • A terminal laid out exclusively for the Modalohr system with paved area and ramps on both sides of the track and the appropriate technology for lifting wagons device must be present. In addition to the handling technique, there are other possible optimization potentials in the CTs, which were previously not implemented for various reasons. For example, the use of automatic identification means for containers is to serve the purpose of providing access to an optimization potential in the implementation and processing of container transportation. Automatic identification would bring the benefits in performance by being able to capture, manage and track the orders and containers. The question is always, however, what technical solutions in the use of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology in the container services are to be used. At the interfaces of the transport chain, ie the transfer points such as ports and terminals, t the fast and reliable identification of containers has an important role. Today, these processes are carried out but usually done manually. There are still some limiting factors preventing the widespread use of RFID technology. The disadvantages of RFID applications are the high cost of the acquisition and implementation of RFID systems previously low level

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of standardization. Although the international standardization of RFID continues, there is still a lack of global standards, which complicates the implementation of enterprise applications significantly. A worldwide standardization is a necessary condition in the global transportation and logistics market. First, there are now on the market each individual vendor specific solutions and the necessary software and hardware are often not compatible with other solutions. Second, a comprehensive fitting of the container with RFID transponders for a full container replacement is essential. Against this backdrop the lack of standards in economic and operational perspective is the primary obstacle. The effect of dirt and theft of the transponders affixed to the containers are further problems.

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9.

Recommenations

The recommendations for the development of intermodal transport for the chemical industry in the PEC II can be summarized as follows: • terminal development in southern Saxony-Anhalt for the chemical industry is urgently needed to meet the rising demand from the East • existing terminal infrastructure in Poland is adapted to modern standards or newly built (Posen currently under construction, Brest / Malaszewicze) • Russia / Belarus is to be supported in its efforts to liberaliase its rail system to meet the enormous demand for transport services by rail • International transport concepts that help cross-border administrative, organizational and technical (multi-system) should be supported to overcome obstacles • Expansion and electrification of the alternative corridor III or via Guben Horka for upgrading and provision of alternative routes should be supported The growth of the chemical industry and the markets and production locations, particularly in the CIS countries will leads to a significant increase in transport volume. The chemical industry with its high security requirements relies on the rail and CT. Both solutions are currently only partly implemented in the CIS countries. In particular, the development of CT in the CIS countries is still in its infancy. Not only rail, but also the logical processes and the terminal infrastructure do not meet the necessary standards. In Poland, the railway sector and the terminal infrastructure still need to catch up. Well-organized railway projects have today technologically the possibility of realization. In Germany terminals in large measure are available. For the narrow commercial requirements in CT, however, are almost ideal conditions prerequisite for a successful refurbishment of a CT link. For the chemical industry, this means for example short as possible pre-and post handling times and an excellent safety management regarding the handling of hazardous materials.

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