Initiating Coverage
ING Vysya Bank Rating: Target: CMP: Upside:
Being with Certainty
ING Vysya Bank (IVB) is on right track
Since 2009, IVB has emerged stronger with a structurally improved balance sheet and regional profile. Bank delivered earnings CAGR of 37% and RoA expansion of 30bps over FY10‐12. In spite of increasingly challenging macro, we believe IVB would continue to perform well due to following
Robust loan profile: Pre‐dominantly a working capital bank in wholesale/SME segments (combined ~75% of book). Well‐diversified credit profile with low exposure to ailing sectors. Largely secured retail book.
Resilient NIM outlook: Portfolio spread has displayed impressive resilience. CASA ratio to improve driven by acceleration in savings growth. Favorable product mix shift and decline in wholesale rates to also support margin.
Huge headroom for opex leverage: Shedding of legacy‐related employee cost and productivity improvement to drive lower‐than‐asset opex growth. Cost/income ratio expected to improve from 59% in FY12 to 54% by FY14.
Strong asset quality: Gross NPL ratio declined sharply over FY10‐12 aided by benign slippages. Restructuring has been minimal (~1.4% of loans). Outlook on slippages/restructuring remains non‐perturbing.
Comfort from high PCR: Counter‐cyclical buffer build over past two years (PCR at 90%); Net NPL/Networth at just 1.3%. Opex leverage benefits to fully transmit to bottomline; earnings to witness a brisk 23% CAGR over FY12‐14.
Secular RoA improvement: Stable margins, decline in cost/income ratio and modest credit cost to underpin continued RoA expansion. Most banks are facing a declining RoA curve. Bank well‐capitalized with Tier‐1 ratio at 10.7%.
Rs460 Rs381 20.6%
Sector:
Financials
Sector view:
Neutral
Sensex:
18,464
52 Week h/l (Rs):
405 / 275
Market cap (Rscr) :
5,762
6m Avg vol (‘000Nos):
74
Bloomberg code:
VYSB IN
BSE code:
531807
NSE code:
INGVYSYABK
FV (Rs):
10
Price as on Sep 14, 2012
Company rating grid Low High 1
2
3
4
5
Earnings Growth
RoA Progression
B/S Strength
Valuation appeal
Risk
Share price trend ING Vysya Bk
Fits in our theme of ‘Buying Certainty’ v/s ‘Buying Valuation’
Sensex
140
Investment theme in the banking sector has been unilateral for some time given unnerving macro situation. While high preference for certainty has enriched valuation of few large private banks, IVB has been ignored despite its robust fundamentals. An improving RoA metric differentiates the bank from most others and therefore stock valuation could likely see a sharp re‐ rating. Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and 9‐month price target of Rs460.
120 100 80 Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Total operating income Yoy growth (%) Operating profit (pre‐provisions) Net profit yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) Adj. BVPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/Adj.BV (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) Source: Company, India Infoline Research
September 17, 2012
Share holding pattern
Financial summary
BUY
FY11 16,615 14.6 6,355 3,187 31.6 26.3 200.6 14.5 1.9 13.4 0.9
FY12 18,781 13.0 7,679 4,563 43.2
FY13E 21,818 16.2 9,495 5,545 21.5
FY14E 25,688 17.7 11,763 6,911 24.6
100
Promoters
FIIs
Others
80 60 40 20 0
30.4 254.6 12.5 1.5 14.3 1.1
36.9 283.0 10.3 1.3 13.5 1.1
46.0 317.8 8.3 1.2 14.9 1.1
Jun‐12 Mar‐12 Dec‐11 Sep‐11
Research Analyst:
Rajiv Mehta Bhavna Sinyal
[email protected]
Company Report
ING Vysya Bank
IVB has emerged stronger under the new management
Under the aegis of Mr.Shailendra Bhandari, MD & CEO (appointed in August 2009), and revamped management team, ING Vysya Bank (IVB) has witnessed a system‐beating loan CAGR of 25% over FY10‐12. More importantly, the brisk asset growth was not driven by chunky project loans but by granular and less risky working capital funding disbursed to wholesale (25% CAGR) and SME (40% CAGR) customers. Growth CAGR in Mortgages was lower at 16% impacted by change in leadership and product mix (towards LAP ‐ loans against property) during FY12. Currently, loan profile is well‐spread between three main segments, Wholesale/Corporate Banking (43%), SME Banking (31%) and Retail Banking (20%). ING has beaten system credit growth over FY10‐12 System 30
System‐beating loan CAGR of 25% over FY10‐12 ‐ mix moved towards wholesale and SME segments
Loan mix moved towards wholesale and SME segments
ING Vysya Bk
Wholesale
(%)
SME
Agri
Retail
24
23
23
20
10
10
7
22
25
28
31
44
42
42
43
Q1 FY10
Q1 FY11
Q1 FY12
Q1 FY13
100% 80%
24
60%
18
6
40%
12
20% 0%
6 FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
IVB has significantly reduced its South India concentration over the past few years by opening majority of new branches in other regions. South India’s share in the distribution network has declined from 82% in FY08 to 68% in Q1 FY13. The branch mix has also moved towards metro and urban areas.
South concentration in branch network has declined Branch mix has moved towards Metro/Urban AP 100%
Rest of South 8 10
80% 60%
41
North & East
9
10
15
16
38
37
West
12
13
13
17
19
19
34
34
Metro
Rural
19
18
18
17
17
16
20
19
19
18
18
19
35
35
35
34
34
32
26
28
29
31
30
33
Mar'08
Mar'09
Mar'10
Mar'11
Mar'12
Jun'12
80% 60%
35
40% 41
Semi‐urban
100%
40% 20%
Urban
38
37
35
34
34
Mar'09
Mar'10
Mar'11
Mar'12
Jun'12
20%
0%
0% Mar'08
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
2
ING Vysya Bank
Underpinned by strong focus on asset quality, IVB delivered robust 37% earnings CAGR over FY10‐12 on a much slower balance sheet CAGR of 18%. Such impressive profit performance was despite the bank following a conservative provisioning policy that improved PCR from 60% to 90%. RoA improved by 30bps in the aforesaid period to cross 1%. Apart from lower delinquencies, structural expansion in NIM contributed to the significant improvement in operating metric. Growth in earnings better than balance sheet in FY10‐12 50
Total Assets
(%)
Earnings CAGR of 37% over FY10‐12 vis‐à‐vis 18% balance sheet CAGR
RoA has seen significant structural improvement
PAT
1.2
(%)
1.0 40 0.8 30 0.6 20
0.4
10
0.2 0.0
0 FY09
FY10
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
FY11
FY12
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
SME lending to remain a core part of loan portfolio
Business Banking (SME) has been core to IVB. Several years of experience has made the bank proficient in this segment as manifested in sustenance of high credit quality (GNPL ratio of