September 2016
Global economy insight Middle East markets update Commodities price analysis
Industry focus
Public–private partnerships in the Middle East
Issue #11
Global
Welcome to Insight #11. In our 11th edition of Insight we take a close look at the trends in the global economy and in regional markets as they impact on the Middle East and particularly the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries. The uncertainty of the previous 12-18 months remains, but there are clear signs that business and governments across all the major economies are at least taking steps towards encouraging growth and reducing uncertainty, despite several key geo-political and economic issues remaining unresolved. The Gulf region is no different. Major capital projects throughout the region have been under intense scrutiny, with several delayed or suspended while negotiations have continued. What is emerging is a stronger sense of prioritisation for major infrastructure projects, and also for those that are of social significance such as in education or health. One procurement solution for governments and other agencies is public-private partnerships (PPP), an investment approach which the public sector is less familiar with in the Middle East, but which is attracting significant attention as an alternative to conventional funding. In our focus this quarter we take a look at the issues involved in PPP, and what both sides of a typical collaboration should be looking out for as they enter the fray.
2
Global
4
Regional
7
Commodities
9
Focus
Global economy insight and trends Uncertainty continues to be the watchword in most developed economies, albeit to varying degrees, as central banks and governments continue to watch events closely. They are influenced by the continuing civil war in Syria, other conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, the slowing of growth in China and major markets such as Europe, and the British decision to negotiate their withdrawal from the European Union. When it comes to oil, the war of attrition is slowly being won by OPEC and the Gulf region producers in particular, with prices easing upwards since the lows of 2014 and 2015, even though supply remains relatively high. Various forecasts had indicated that oil prices could reach $60/ barrel by the turn of the year, but that figure is likely to be a maximum rather than an absolute guide, as OPEC partners struggle to keep prices contained at that maximum. Most OPEC members remain in
agreement that, whatever the pain, they will aim for that figure and no more, as it appears that OPEC is winning its battle to squeeze out high-cost competition, particularly from the United States. The $60/barrel point is seen as the minimum price that would enable re-investment in production by the US shale producers (OPEC’s main target in this global price battle). OPEC continues to stand firm in its attempts to hurt the US producers, even though some of its own members, including Venezuela, have been pressing for a new target of $70/barrel or even higher. There remains little sign of a return to the high-price, high-spending era of pre-2014, even though some OPEC sources have hinted at a longer-term target closer to $100/ barrel. This indicates that the Gulf states in particular are prepared to sit out the current impasse, with the aim of a longer-term competitive gain.
Average crude oil spot price 2016
$
37.34 Q1
$
47.69 Q2
$
45.93 Q3
12 Currie & Brown offices www.curriebrown.com
Source: World Bank
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September 2016
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Global
One important trend resulting directly from the lower tax income from oil production is that Gulf states are now adopting different ways to fund public spending. In tandem, several states have also accelerated investment in renewable energies, particularly solar, in a clear strategic attempt to steer their economies away from conventional dependency on carbon fuels and the expensive habit of funding massive spending on capital projects from current accounts. This new assessment of public expenditure is reflected in the growing interest in PPP indicated by most governments and other public agencies across the Gulf region. As we report in a separate article in this publication, investors and clients are embracing PPP much more seriously as a means of funding major capital projects across the region. New investors from Europe and East Asia are moving into this market with greater confidence. Oil aside, uncertainty continues to hamper the world economy as it travels forwards and away from the banking crisis of 2008 and the property slump that followed. The United States economy continues to demonstrate recovery, especially in the number of jobs created, but business and consumer confidence in most western economies has remained cautious throughout the year.
economies of France, Spain and Italy. The British referendum decision has added to the uncertainty, although formal exit negotiations are unlikely to be triggered by Prime Minister Theresa May before early 2017. It is only when both sides’ negotiating positions are known that proper forecasts can be made about the impact of Brexit on Europe, the UK and the global economy as a whole. Prior to the referendum in June, the IMF and other institutions had expressed significant concern about the effect of Brexit, not only in Europe but also on the world economy. The UK is a significant member of the EU, and accounts for around 10 per cent of its market. A ‘hard Brexit’, whereby the UK withdraws without agreement on the single market and freedom of labour movement, would jeopardise numerous international trade deals involving the EU. The uncertainty may be compounded by planned general elections in Germany and France next year.
The UK wants to sustain and strengthen its partnership with Germany once it has left the EU.
Growth forecasts overall have remained sluggish, although in the case of the US that may change depending on the outcome of the presidential election in November. Regardless of who wins, there will be close scrutiny of market reaction and also any potential policy changes. The European economy continues to face serious uncertainty, with growth remaining slow in the larger UK Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Source: euobserver.com Credit: Tom Evans
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September 2016
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Regional
Dubai continues to dominate in construction projects across the GCC The Gulf states are undergoing significant policy changes which are likely to have a long-lasting impact on both the construction sector and external investors. The new realism which is being felt across the region, and is being emphasised by some administrations more than others, has been driven in part by the oil price shock of the last 18-24 months and a perceived need to re-think the type of projects planned by the public sector and the way they might be procured and funded.
There are other drivers aside from oil prices. In some areas, there is greater emphasis on those projects that demonstrate clearly-understood social and economic value – for example health, education and transport infrastructure – while in other areas the change is a result of clients reprioritising construction plans.
Overall the GCC region witnessed a 40 per cent drop in capital projects during the first half of 2016, according to research by Middle East Business Intelligence (MEED). The situation is blamed on a combination of low oil prices, reduced government spending and a weaker real estate market.
GCC contract awards 2015 vs 2016
The GCC witnessed a 40 per cent drop in capital projects
MEED Projects researchers found that contract awards amounted to US$52 billion, a US$25 billion drop on the same period in 2015.
Source: meed.com.
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September 2016
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Regional
MEED Projects researchers concluded that market confidence had been affected as a result, and that clients were therefore particularly reluctant to sign off new deals. However, total awards for the year are predicted to reach $140 billion, a fall on last year but a figure which nevertheless indicates some recovery across regional markets since June. The World Bank has further reduced growth forecasts for 2016 in the GCC countries to just two per cent. Its overall figure for the Middle East (2.9 per cent) is higher, mainly due to greater activity in Egypt and also the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. The World Bank also expressed concern about ongoing military action in the Middle East region and the risk of it spilling over borders, with economic and security implications. Nevertheless, economic conditions are felt to be improving at a regional level, despite reduced spending, patchy confidence and other uncertainties. That recovery is variable, and is being led most strongly in Dubai, which continues to dominate in terms of construction projects, following a general shake-out during 2015. The bright spots around the region were mainly related to priority projects, including event-driven work such as the Dubai Expo in 2020 and – to a lesser extent this year – the FIFA World Cup planned for Qatar in 2022. Although the first half of the year produced the aforementioned big drop in contract awards, the biggest award of the year – the $2.9 billion deal for a major expansion of the Dubai Metro – came through in June, lifting what was otherwise a difficult period for clients and contractors alike. That contract will create a 15km extension to the Expo site, leading from the existing Red Line at the Nakheel Harbour and Tower station. Eleven kilometres of the line will be elevated, including five of the seven new stations to be created by the winning consortium of Acciona www.curriebrown.com
Source: thenational.ae
The metro project is the single biggest award of the $13.6 billion contract awards in Dubai in the first half of this year. (Spain), Gulermak (Turkey) and Alstom (France). The line will also connect to Al Maktoum International Airport. Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) selected two shortlisted consortia from a group of five bidders earlier this year. The metro project accounts for nearly half of all such deals made in the GCC during the first half of the year. Transport infrastructure continues to drive growth, with a rail masterplan currently under way. In August MEED reported that Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum had approved an RTA traffic and transportation plan for the period to 2030.
This plan includes numerous major projects, such as the completion of the Al Shindagha Tunnel, various pedestrian and cyclist developments, the extension of the Burj Khalifa metro station and no less than 36 bridges. The Emirates News Agency said that the projects will be delivered in five phases, with completion set for November 2019.
Foster + Partners’ design for the mobility pavilion has been chosen for the Expo 2020
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Source: expo2020dubai.ae
September 2016
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Regional
Rationalisation is the key for both public and private sectors. Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) was forced to write down oil assets by $6 billion and reported a loss of $2.7 billion for 2015. Managing director Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, who is also the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister, confirmed that IPIC will merge with another Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Development Company. The plan is to diversify the energy portfolio and reduce risk. The family-owned Al Jaber Group has confirmed plans to raise $1.6 billion from a sale of assets as part of a recovery plan aimed at reducing debt and restructuring liabilities, according to Bloomberg. The deal, which involves the disposal of property and shares, is being supported by Al Jaber’s major creditors, including several banks. While the UAE continues to build, other GCC countries continue to retrench, with some interesting results. Saudi Arabia, for example, is using the oil price downturn to re-evaluate its approach to all projects. The results could virtually revolutionise an economy known for its comparative conservatism. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabian government officials have indicated that as many as a third of current project plans – worth more than $60 billion – could be cancelled.
The result of all this is that Saudi Arabia is setting new priorities. It is making firm moves towards diversifying energy production to include renewables such as solar. As the world’s single biggest oil producer (reclaiming this title from the USA in early September) it remains committed to investing in facilities to support the shipbuilding and distribution industry, such as on the country’s east coast, where state oil company Aramco needs more tankers to be built to meet recovering demand. The difference is that Saudi Arabian officials are now looking at new ways to fund investments. As we report elsewhere in this publication, this includes public-private partnerships (PPP). This year, schemes including the Taif airport have been delayed as clients struggle with the support mechanisms for collaboration with private investors, many of which are foreign banks. Tourism is seen as a major source of future income by most GCC states, but many of them acknowledge that they need to improve transport infrastructure in order to exploit such demand. In the case of Saudi Arabia, officials have indicated a willingness to effectively privatise the running of their airports in exchange for significant investment. The international consultancy Deloitte has pointed out that far greater regulatory clarity is required from governing authorities across the
region. It also pinpointed flaws such as weak structures concerning dispute resolution and what it described as ’optimism bias’, whereby detail is skirted over in favour of a general feeling that a project will work out in the end, whatever the problems it faces. Saudi Arabia has a national transformation plan envisaging major PPP contracts across various sectors by 2020, including transport, energy, health and education. In Qatar, three groups have submitted bids to complete the Doha Metro project following the termination of the previous consortium’s contract earlier in the year. The deal includes the completion of the Msheireb and Education City stations. Oman has begun the implementation of a public transport strategy, with urban and long-distance buses creating closer links between the three main cities of Muscat, Sohar and Salalah. Oman authorities, however, have put a 2,135km rail project on hold following the continued suspension of construction operations by Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Rail. The initial 207km development was due to run between Sohar and the UAE border. The project has faced two such major delays and will not meet its original 2018 completion date.
Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company’s (IPIC) plan is to diversify its energy portfolio and reduce risk.
H. E. Mohamed Al Mazrouei Minister of Energy, UAE Source: arabianoilandgas.com
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September 2016
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Commodities
Price analysis Commodities Non-ferrous metals
Unit
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
Q1
Q3
Aluminium alloy
US$/tonne
1,600.00
1,602.75
1,576.71
1,576.24
Aluminium
US$/tonne
1,503.67
1,586.95
1,636.38
1,693.07
Copper
US$/tonne
4,651.33
4,656.68
4,733.98
4,860.00
Lead
US$/tonne
1,685.17
1,769.41
1,741.67
1,860.19
Nickel
US$/tonne
8,778.33
8,695.89
9,013.90
10,487.77
Tin
US$/tonne
14,711.67
15,335.68
16,805.83
18,049.40
Zinc
US$/tonne
1,519.83
1,691.14
1,899.62
2,208.30
Reinforcing bars
US$/tonne
328.33
351.67
466.67
400.00
Steel beams - channel
US$/tonne
463.33
471.67
541.67
507.50
Hot rolled plates
US$/tonne
311.67
316.67
413.33
387.50
Cold rolled coils
US$/tonne
338.33
370.00
493.33
457.50
Pre-painted galvanised steel, 0.35
US$/tonne
516.67
565.83
705.00
612.50
Stainless steel HR coils 304 base
US$/tonne
1,800.00
1,725.00
1,841.67
1,875.00
Crude oil
US$/barrel
34.75
29.74
42.30
42.89
Diesel (Dubai only)
US$/gallon
6.97
5.53
6.27
6.83
Steel
Energy
Cement Cement
US$/bag
3.47
3.57
3.57
3.56
Concrete (Dubai suppliers)
AED/bag
261.33
257.33
258.67
263.50
US$/100kg
168.01
157.12
203.11
210.71
US$/tonne
503.11
503.11
503.11
503.11
Rubber Rubber
Bitumen 60/70 Bitumen
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Non-ferrous metal prices are derived from London Metal Exchange, whereas steel prices are derived from Middle East steel price Indications; all based on average prices for the month.
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The price of rubber is derived from International Rubber Board, based on average prices for the month.
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All prices for commodities are based on bulk quantities, cash trade, US dollar.
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Where ranges have been provided, an average price has been assumed for the purpose of comparison.
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The rate for beams - channels has been derived from Far East/Europe/India market.
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Cement prices are derived from UAE local supplier.
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Crude oil price is derived from light crude brent, US market.
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Diesel rates are from EPPCO.
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Concrete rates AED/m3 based on the average price of concrete 45/27 from four UAE local suppliers.
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Reinforcing bars are based on the average price from four UAE suppliers.
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Cement rates AED/tonne based on the Dubai government cap imposed in 2008.
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September 2016
7
Commodities
Crude oil (2006 - 2016)
Cement (2006 - 2016) 30.00
120.00
25.00
105.00 20.00
AED/bag
90.00
US$/barrel
75.00
15.00
60.00 10.00
45.00 30.00
5.00 15.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-
2016
2006
2007
2008
2009
20102
Diesel (Dubai only) (2006 - 2016)
Steel (2006 - 2016)
16.00
5,000.00
011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Steel beams -channel Hot Rolled Plates Cold Rolled Coils Reinforcing bars
14.00
Prepainted Galvanised Steel, 0.35
4,000.00
Stainless Steel HRCoils 304 Base
US$/tonne
AED/gallon
12.00
10.00
8.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
6.00 1,000.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
20132
014
2015
2016
2006
Crude oil (2006 - 2016)
2007
2008
20092
010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Non-ferrous metals (2006 - 2016)
4,500.00
50,000.00
Lead
Copper
Aluminium Alloy
4,000.00
Nickel
45,000.00
Aluminium
Tin
Zinc
3,500.00
40,000.00
3,000.00
35,000.00
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q1
2.00
Q2
4.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
30,000.00 25,000.00 20,000.00
1,500.00
15,000.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
500.00
5,000.00 -
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 2006
2007
2008
2009
20102
011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 2006
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2007
2008
2009
20102
011
2012
2013
2014
2015
September 2016
2016
8
Focus
Precision and good planning are vital to successful PPP procurement
Middle Eastern governments and other public agencies are turning to public private partnerships (PPP) as an alternative funding mechanism for major projects amidst greater financial uncertainty affecting most of the Gulf. PPP is very much a new concept for many officials in a region which previously was comparatively freespending, especially on high-profile ‘iconic’ projects of Dubai and many other cities in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. But economic circumstances, not least the prolonged dip in oil prices, has prompted many in government to rethink the way ahead when it comes to www.curriebrown.com
the project management and funding of major infrastructure investment. The experience of mature PPP markets such as Canada, Australia and the UK can be applied to influence and support the development of Gulf projects. This would be of benefit to both clients and investors, but there would need to be regional and local adaptations rather than a straight copy of approaches from elsewhere. The first thing to consider when examining the suitability of PPP is the rationale itself. The obvious and conventional method has been for the client to fund a project directly or to borrow from the bank. But with
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There is no standard global definition of precisely what the term ‘public-private partnership’ means. It is sometimes used to refer to any cooperative combination of the public and private sectors to achieve a public-policy goal. The World Bank Group defines a PPP as a formal contractual relationship: ‘A long-term contractual arrangement between a public entity or authority and a private entity for providing a public asset or service in which the private party bears significant risk and management responsibility.’
September 2016
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Focus
tighter controls on public spending and reduced cash income, PPP becomes an attractive option, tapping into longer-term funding solutions, creating output-based specifications for construction and operational periods, and developing skills in both the public and the private sector. The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states have between them many thousands of construction projects proposed, approved, under way or on hold as public and private sectors grapple with the new economic realities. The oil price situation is happening in tandem with considerable uncertainty worldwide. Clients, therefore, need to review commitments and prioritise activities, and this trend has become more apparent over the last two years. Infrastructure is emerging as the top priority: roads, railways, water and renewable energy projects all over the Gulf are gaining traction as potential PPP vehicles. Similarly, school and medical facilities are priority public sector projects which may well be chosen for this type of funding. Many parts of the region have growing populations with increasingly middleclass aspirations. Apart from places to live, they are seeking good schools and hospitals, and they expect world-class transportation. To varying degrees, this driver applies across the region, and governments have been carefully examining long-term economic growth and a move away from hydrocarbons as the main source of income. As cash becomes less freely available, clients and potential investment partners are having to learn how to work together.
Early attempts at PPP-style projects faced difficulties, and it is important that both parties understand the demands involved in embarking on this path. Successful PPP projects result from competent pre-planning of clear outputs for both construction and asset operation, followed by strong negotiation. By their very nature they attract leading international banks and construction groups. Their position is to agree long-term partnerships but also to stick to agreements, with the allocation of risk between the public and private sector made very clear within the contract terms. PPP contracts are not structured to readily accept contract changes, and this factor, as well as provisions for termination, can be complex. What does that mean for partners in the Gulf? Firstly it means that clients and their advisors must develop a clear understanding of what they expect from any project, and how much it will cost over the project’s lifetime, which could be up to 30 years. This introduces additional discipline to project management: project specification should be well thought through. Details should be futureproofed as far as possible, with both the initial construction requirements as well as the long-term operational
In Gulf countries a funding gap of around $270 billion is expected over the next three years, with around $50 billion of that directly in infrastructure. (Source: Standard & Poors)
requirements carefully considered and documented in the output specifications. What are the benefits? The PPP structure means that projects are funded by financial institutions so that the project cash does not initially come directly from government capital budgets. Instead, the client will typically commission a major building such as a hospital, and then agree a deal whereby the building, and all facilities management at least, are paid by the government in instalments over an agreed period. Previously, some GCC countries have funded projects from their own reserves, but other pressures now make PPP more attractive to governments that are seeking private sector investment and are willing to
Successful PPPs depend very much on trust and collaboration; this is absolutely key to both parties as they negotiate building and service specifications, costs and payment schedules. When a PPP agreement is finalised and signed off, it involves major international investors and cannot be changed easily, if at all. Relationships must be developed with potential investment partners. www.curriebrown.com
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September 2016
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Focus
shift priorities to projects that make the greatest social and economic sense. Recently, Kuwait and the UAE have witnessed the updating or creation of new regulations aimed at accommodating the PPP concept within existing legal frameworks. This has led to a surge in PPP proposals at various stages of tender. Qatar has not written such regulations into law, but has appointed consultants to advise on framework and legislation issues. Saudi Arabia, actively considering what would be a significant change of policy, is using existing commercial law, but is exploring changes to support a more active PPP programme. Business culture has been a historic stumbling block. Governments and regional authorities are less familiar with PPP, and officials have not always understood why it takes time to take a project to market, reaching financial close only when all other stages are complete, before work can begin. In economies where cash might previously have been released once a project was approved, this process can appear unnecessary and frustrating. Experienced PPP advisors and investors are more familiar with the idea of detailed output-based specifications and specific negotiations before a deal is effectively closed. In addition, financial close means closure, and a PPP deal should not be re-negotiated, or ‘unpicked’, once that has happened. All of this puts greater emphasis on the need for clients, advisors and investors to set out carefully in order to achieve a truly collaborative relationship that can be translated into formal binding agreements. This is new territory for many clients, and it may be wise to start with small, selfcontained projects which offer a route to success but also the chance to gain valuable experience at developing structures and building relationships. Diligent selection of experienced advisors, strong management and collaboration with clients will all be essential. www.curriebrown.com
Artistic impression of the new multi-facility Transit Oriented Development at Union Square Source: thedubaitram.com, Credit: RTA
There are many examples where dedicated PPP units have supported the development of procurement and delivery skills in the public sector, and collaborated with the private sector. This allows for clarity of procurement processes, engagement with funders, development of a pipeline of projects, and clarity around contract terms: all essential ingredients to attract the private sector and support delivery. So what are the practical tips for a procurer? US law firm King & Spalding recently issued their top ten pieces of advice, urging clients to concentrate on proper planning, including consideration of the shape and membership of the procurement team and timescales. Decisions made about funding, project management and the management of the tendering process can all have a fundamental impact on a project’s success or failure. The output specification is vital too. Essentially this becomes the core ‘book’ which will provide the basis of the work to be done. Apart from the construction requirement, the ongoing operational needs must be assessed over the project lifetime, and set down before agreement is reached. Later variations can be very costly indeed.
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The process of evaluating and selecting a bidder is important too. The procurer and advisors must shortlist bidders, talk to them, make the evaluation very clear so that there is no risk of misunderstanding, and ensure transparency along the way. Key issues here include the implementation schedule and the payment structure. Both sides must understand – and agree – to the process before a final decision is made. New legislation in places such as Dubai helps provide a formal roadmap for procurers, tenderers and advisors. The introduction of PPP could effectively support the procurement of major projects, such as Dubai’s Al Maktoum International Airport, the Union Square Plaza and the extension of the Dubai Metro to the Expo 2020 site. For the Gulf states, the prize is simple and attainable: a new way to ensure that significant social and economic projects move ahead. PPP can deliver successfully, but it needs to be clearly understood so that it is implemented in a way that works for everyone.
September 2016
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