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INDUSTRIAL DESTINATIONS HUNGARY 2014 CBRE | RESEARCH | HUNGARY
INDUST DESTIN
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FOREWORD Hungary is one of the major industrial workrooms on the continent. Due to its strategic location in Central Europe, strong industrial heritage and highly educated but still affordable workforce the country has been very attractive for foreign direct investments in the manufacturing and logistics sector for the past 20 years.
Despite the undoubted leading economic role of the capital city, some highly industrialised areas have lately emerged on the pan-Hungarian industrial scene as key regional submarkets. Budapest’s share in national industrial output is only 15% which is comparable to what, some of the major regional hotspots have. Nevertheless, the industrial property market has different characteristics in panregional locations compared to the capital city.
New investments since 2011 put more light on the pan-regional industrial market which had been off the radar of real estate researchers who limited their scope to the Greater Budapest area only. The regional markets have never been analysed as a whole and thus no publications were available which would have given an overall picture across different geographies.
WITH THIS REPORT, CBRE RESEARCH AIMS TO GIVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PANREGIONAL INDUSTRIAL MARKET, COMPARING VARIOUS LOCATIONS ON THE SAME BASIS AND EXPLORING MARKET TENDENCIES. ? Where are the major industrial hubs outside of Budapest? ? What core industries charactarise the Hungarian economy? ? Who are the biggest industrial occupiers? ? How did growth dynamics change across geographies? ? What real estate solutions are typical in various locations? ? What options do new occupiers have if they decide to move to Hungary?
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GENERAL INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW
COUNTRY’S ESSENTIALS
9.909 million
TOTAL POPULATION (2013)
4.12 million (end of 2013)
EMPLOYED PEOPLE (end of 2013) Hungary has a small and highly open economy. The country is strongly export oriented with solid ties to other countries of the European Union. The EU-28 has a share of 77% in the country’s export volume. The no.1 export destination is historically Germany which absorbs 26% of the total export. Since the economic slowdown of core European markets, the Hungarian
export increasingly targets other destinations where GDP growth is higher. Central-European countries, especially the members of Visegrad Group (Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia); Eastern-Europe, Central-Asia and the Far-East are all registering increasing export shares. The government also aims to strengthen the trade with these regions.
EMPLOYED PEOPLE IN MANUFACTURING
0.83 million (21% from total)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (September 2014)
7.4%
GDP PER CAPITAL, IN PPS (2013)
67% (EUR 18,300)
GDP GROWTH RATE (Q2 2014)
3.9% (year-on-year) 22.7%
SHARE OF MANUFACTURING FROM TOTAL GDP (2012)
EUR 766
AVERAGE MONTHLY GROSS SALARY (Q1 2014)
HUF 2,090 billion
TRADE SURPLUS (2013) Sources: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Eurostat
MANUFACTURING: DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN 2014
MAJOR EXPORT DESTINATIONS (share from total export, 2013)
EU
Share of manufacturing sector in total GDP
77%
Trade surplus (billion HUF in nominal prices)
Germany
20% in 2009
23% in 2012
1,056 in 2009
2,090 in 2013
26%
THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR ACCOUNTS FOR 23% OF TOTAL GDP WITH AN INCREASING SHARE IN RECENT YEARS. The key drivers of manufacturing are the automotive sector (with a share of 23%); the electronics sector (12%) and the food industry (11%). Pharmaceutical production has an excellent reputation with a strong R&D background; however, its share from the total industrial production is only 3%.
Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
New EU members
23%
Visegrad countries
13%
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CORE INDUSTRIES
Audi in Gyo˝r produces serial cars and operates a world-wide known research and development centre. Most recently it opened a regional logistics centre nearby the factory. In terms of revenue, Audi is the second largest company in Hungary, ranked after MOL (Hungarian Oil and Gas Company).
AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION
Hungary has a strong and established automotive industry which gives almost one-quarter (23%) of the country’s total industrial production and adds up to 30% in total export volume. It is the fastest growing sector in recent years which boosts the Hungarian economy and provides job for a total of 115,000 people – including suppliers. Automotive companies are taking advantage of the geographical proximity and the critical mass which the sector has already reached. The basic pillars of the Hungarian automotive industry are the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) which have gradually expanded their production capacity since the early 1990s.
Currently there are four OEMs present in Hungary: General Motors, Audi, Suzuki and Mercedes-Benz. Audi is the largest player and has established the world’s second largest engine plant in Gyo˝r.
LARGEST INDUSTRY LARGEST EXPORT SOURCE SHARE FROM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2013)
23%
Geographically, the automotive sector is concentrated in the Western part of the country, especially in two NUTS 2 regions: Western-Transdanubia (Gyo˝ r, Szentgotthárd) and Central-Transdanubia (Tatabánya, Esztergom). Three out of the four operating OEMs are present in this part of the country with an established supplier network. The most recent investment was done by Mercedes-Benz when they opened their plant in the South Great Plain region (Kecskemét), some 90km south of Budapest in 2012.
MAJOR AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES IN HUNGARY
UKRAINE
Takata
SLOVAKIA Audi, Dana, Nemak, Rába, Rehau
Bridgestone, AGC, Delphi, Otto Fuchs
ESZTERGOM
GYŐR
LuK, BPW
SHARE FROM EXPORT (2013)
Continental, Ibiden, ThyssenKrupp
Michelin
MEZO ˝KÖVESD
NYÍREGYHÁZA
Bosch
OROSZLÁNY SZOMBATHELY
AUSTRIA
MISKOLC
Suzuki, Kirchhoff
TATABÁNYA BUDAPEST
BorgWarner, Koloman Handler, SZÉKESFEHÉRVÁR Wescast SZENTGOTTHÁRD
ROMANIA
KECSKEMÉT
DUNAÚJVÁROS Harman, Denso
Opel (GM)
SLOVENIA
30%
CROATIA
Hankook
Mercedes-Benz, Knorr-Bremse
SERBIA
OEMs have attracted a wide range of equipment manufacturers and other suppliers. These companies have settled down in the close vicinity of the OEM factories - in municipality-led industrial parks predominantly in the North / Northwest of the country.
Many of the world’s largest TIER-1 suppliers are present in Hungary, such as Bosch, Bridgestone, Continental, Delphi, Denso, Lear, Luk and Michelin. Domestic companies are mainly active on the TIER-3 and 4 levels. Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
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CORE INDUSTRIES
ELECTRONICS PRODUCTION HAS THE SECOND LARGEST PROPORTION BOTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT.
ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING
Electronics manufacturing is the second largest industry in Hungary. It gives 12% of total industrial production and 16% of export volume. The country is the largest electronics producer in the region, accounting for a quarter of the Central-European total electronics production. Some of the large international producers (such as Nokia, Panasonic, Samsung) who had been present in Hungary for two decades, signifincantly downsized their European operation and therefore downsized their real estate footprint in the country.
Hungary has a key position in the electronics suppliers’ industry: six out of the ten largest TIER 1 suppliers in Europe (Flextronics, Foxconn, Jabil, Sanmina, Videoton, Zollner) have a presence in the country.
Similarly to the automotive sector, electronics manufacturers show a relatively large geographic concentration. They have the largest footprint in the Central Transdanubian (Komárom, Tatabánya, Székesfehérvár) and in the Central Hungarian (Budapest and Vác) NUTS 2 regions. Pécs is the only city which is located outside of Northern-Hungary.
SECOND LARGEST PROPORTION SHARE FROM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2013)
UKRAINE Nokia* Foxconn
SHARE FROM EXPORT (2013)
VÁC
TATABÁNYA SÁRVÁR
AUSTRIA
TISZAÚJVÁROS
National Instruments
Jabil
Sanmina
16%
Zollner
KOMÁROM
Flextronics
12%
SLOVAKIA
Videoton
DEBRECEN BUDAPEST
SZÉKESFEHÉRVÁR
Flextronics General Electric Prettl
ROMANIA
SLOVENIA Flextronics
PÉCS
SERBIA
CROATIA Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
* Production wil be terminated by end of 2014
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AGGLOMERATION ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF THE TOTAL HUNGARIAN STOCK
UKRAINE
SLOVAKIA M30
M3 M3
M1
M35
M0 M7
M6
ROMANIA
M5
AUSTRIA M7
M6
SLOVENIA
M43
M6
Prologis Park Budapest-Gyál
HUNGARIAN INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKETS CBRE Research have differentiated eight industrial submarkets in Hungary based on geographic density and overall stock size. Two of them are part of the Greater Budapest area, whilst the rest are regional hubs. The industrial property market shows a relatively high geographic concentration. Key common characteristics of all indsutrial hubs include the direct vicinity to the national motorway network. The development of the industrial real estate market is a true reflection of the geographical concentration of the Hungarian industrial production: with the exception of
a small submarket (M5 Central) all the submarkets are in the northern part of the country – predominantly along the Western motorway (M1) or the Eastern motorway (M3). The logistics market shows an even higher geographic concentration: 85% of modern logistics and warehouse schemes are located in Budapest and its agglomeration as the capital sits at the origo of the country’s transport network. The most important transit route, connecting Western Europe and South-Eastern Europe (TEN IV) passes the capital.
The strong industrial feature of these regions can be explained by the large number of foreign production companies who chose to settle at this part of the country due to its vicinity to the Western-European export markets, the better infrastructure and the historically more established industrial culture.
CROATIA
M1 WEST
SERBIA
M1 EAST M7 CENTRAL BUDAPEST AGGLOMERATION M5 CENTRAL
M3 WEST
M3 EAST
ELECTRONICS PRODUCTION HAS THE SECOND LARGEST PROPORTION BOTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT. • Not surprisingly the Budapest agglomeration is the largest submarket which itself accounts for over 40% of the total Hungarian stock and reaches nearly 2.5 million sq m – including built-for-lease and owner occupied space. • The submarket in Central-Transdanubia, M1 East (Tatabánya, Komárom, Esztergom) is the second largest hub with slightly under 1 million sq m.
• The submarket in West-Transdanubia, M1 West has the highest geographical density of industrial stock located basically in one city, Gyo˝r. • In the East of the country submarkets are smaller as a rule of thumb. M3 West, the smallest submarket based on overall stock is in the NUTS 2 region of Northern-Hungary.
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13 BUDAPEST AGGLOMERATION ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF THE TOTAL HUNGARIAN STOCK.
PRE-CRISIS DEVELOPMENT BOOM WAS BOOSTED BY SPECULATIVE PROJECTS.
Chart: Stock Size, Split of OO / Leased Stock and Vacancy Rate by Hubs Owner occupied
Leased
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size Completion volume
Average vacancy rate (right)
(sq m)
POST-CRISIS YEARS ARE DRIVEN BY OWNER OCCUPIED AND BTS DEVELOPMENTS.
Stock size (right)
(sq m)
(sq m)
3,000,000
18%
700,000
7,000,000
2,500,000
15%
600,000
6,000,000
2,000,000
12%
500,000
5,000,000
1,500,000
9%
400,000
4,000,000
300,000
3,000,000
1,000,000
6%
200,000
2,000,000
500,000
3%
100,000
1,000,000
0
0%
0
0
M3 West
M5
M7
M1 West
M3 East
Budapest
M1 East
Budapest Agglomeration
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Occupational structure shows large differences across geographies. Whilst in Greater Budapest (the city and its agglomeration) most of the schemes are leased, the pan-regional market is dominated by owner occupied schemes. The only exception to this rule is M1 West (Gyo˝r).
The Hungarian industrial stock is relatively new as almost two-thirds of it was delivered in the past ten years. Annual new supply was generally high between 2005 and 2009, especially in Greater Budapest. This period was followed by a sharp decline, bottoming in 2011 with less than 100,000 sq m of new supply.
There are four hubs where the average vacancy rate is over 10%. The Budapest Agglomeration submarket has the highest vacancy rate (over 15%) due to the Immediate availability in built-for-lease premises. In M1 East and M3 East a number of large vacant owner occupied schemes increase the overall vacancy.
In recent years, development activity is on the rise again with constantly growing supply figures which has already reached pre-crisis levels. This rebound is boosted by a number of large regional owner-occupied and BTS developments, mainly for the manufacturing sector.
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NORTH
M2 M3
M31
M0
Ring Road
Distribution of leased schemes in the Greater Budapest Area
M0
Big-box warehouse (logistics parks)
WEST
M4
M1
City logistics schemes Source: CBRE
M7
M0
SOUTH
M51
M6
M5
South Pest Business Park
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
GREATER BUDAPEST CAN BE SPLIT INTO TWO SUBMARKETS, THE CITY ITSELF AND ITS AGGLOMERATION.
• In Budapest-City the total modern industrial stock stands at 700,400 sq m. • The share of leased schemes is 82%, the highest proportion by far among all the industrial hubs. • Current availabilty is 76,700 sq m, indicating a vacancy rate of 11%. • Although, only 21,000 sq m currently has a valid building permit, available brown-field areas allow for significant city-logistics developments if the market moves that direction.
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m)
BUDAPEST CITY
Waberer’s
80,000
Owner occupied
Knorr-Bremse
30,000
Owner occupied
Flextronics
23,000
Owner occupied
Ghibli
12,500
Leased
Whilst in Budapest, smaller city logistics schemes dominate the market, in the agglomeration there are only big-box schemes located in logistics parks.
GEOGRAPHY The city of Budapest has a relatively large extension with a total area of 525 sq km. With 1.74 million people living in town, the population density is reasonably low. The former industrial belt in the city has been only partially rezoned and reused so there are vast brown-field areas on the territory of the capital city waiting for future functions – including warehousing/city logistics. As a remnant from the industrial heritage of the city, low quality industrial schemes still operate as demand for these types of schemes is substantial.
Geographically, both ‘A’ category city logistics schemes and ‘B’-‘C’ grade buildings, are primarily located on the Pest side, mainly in District 9, 10 and 13 and 15. These districts are located at the vicinity of the outer ring road, thus halfway between the central and the peripheral parts of the city. On the Buda side, only District 3 and 11 comprise relevant industrial stock. The largest city logistics schemes are located along the access roads of motorways and in some cases have direct railway connection.
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS Total stock (sq m)
700,400
Available stock (sq m)
76,400
Immediate pipeline* (sq m)
21,000
Vacancy rate
11%
Share of leased area
82%
* The potential volume which would be available on the market within 10 months from enquiry. We included only those areas which are owned by a real estate developer and have a valid building permit. Expansion areas of owner occupied schemes are excluded.
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17 VACANCY RATE GAP BETWEEN BIG-BOX AND CITY LOGISTICS SCHEMES HAS NARROWED SINCE 2011.
REAL ESTATE MARKET - DESCRIPTION
HALF OF THE EXISTING STOCK WAS DELIVERED BETWEEN 2007 AND 2010. Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
(sq m)
Chart: Changes of Vacancy Rate in logistics Parks and City Logistics Schemes
(sq m)
160,000
800,000
35% 30% 25%
120,000
600,000
80,000
400,000
40,000
200,000
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
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0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completion volume
Stock size (right)
The development boom peaked here between 2005 and 2010. Since 2011, the annual completion level was around 10,000 sq m each year. In 2014, no new developments are scheduled to be handed over.
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
Logistic Park
Q3 2011
Q1 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2014
Q3 2014
City logistics
In recent years the average vacancy rate in city logistics schemes has shown a downward trend. Until 2011, these smaller schemes steadily registered higher vacancy rates (5-15 pps difference) than larger big box units (located mainly in the agglomeration). This gap has significantly narrowed during 2012 and from Q1 2013 we have witnessed a reversed picture, indicating an increasing demand for the more centrally located buildings.
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NORTH
M2 M3
M31
M0
Ring Road
Distribution of leased schemes in the Greater Budapest Area
M0
Big-box warehouse (logistics parks)
WEST
M4
M1
City logistics schemes Source: CBRE
M7
M0
SOUTH
M51
M6
M5
Prologis Park Budapest-Sziget
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
GREATER BUDAPEST CAN BE SPLIT INTO TWO SUBMARKETS, THE CITY ITSELF AND ITS AGGLOMERATION.
• The agglomeration area around Budapest comprises a total of ca. 2.4 million sq m of modern industrial space. • This is roughly three-times larger than the stock located within the administrative borders of the city. • Circa 55% of this volume is built for lease on a speculative basis.
BUDAPEST AGGLOMERATION The agglomeration area around Budapest comprises 40% of the total Hungarian industrial stock. Due to the fact the area sits at the origo of the country’s transport network, its share from modern logistics and warehouse schemes reaches 85%.
GEOGRAPHY Logisitics parks were built directly along the motorways. The highest geographic concentrations can be observed at the Southern section of the city’s motorway ring road (M0) and at the junction of M0-M1-M7 motorways which benefit from the most intense transit traffic. Geographically, the agglomeration can be split into three areas: the Northern, Southern and Western submarkets (see map).
The Southern submarket is the largest by far, comprising more than half of the leased schemes, whilst the Northern submarket has a share of only 11%. Traffic flow at the Northern section of the motorway ring road is less intense as the the North-Western part of the ringroad is missing and it is unlikely that construction works will start before 2020.
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
• The rest of the stock is a mix of owner occupied schemes, primarily with production and warehouse functions. • The average vacancy rate stands at 16%. • Apart from the available areas offered in leasable big box units, there is a number of fully vacant (formerly owner occupied) schemes which also increases the overall vacancy.
Total stock (sq m)
2,403,500
Available stock (sq m)
377,600
Immediate pipeline (sq m)
867,000
Vacancy rate
16%
Share of leased area
55%
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m) DHL
111,000
Leased
Aldi
80,000
Owner occupied
Geodis
50,000
Leased
HOPI
50,000
Leased
Auchan
37,500
Leased
Gebrüder Weiss
37,000
Leased/OO
DB Schenker
27,000
Leased
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SUPPLY IN RECENT YEARS IS NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO PRE-CRISIS YEARS.
WAREHOUSING AND LOGISTICS HAVE A LEADING ROLE EVEN IN THE NON-SPECULATIVE STOCK.
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
(sq m)
350,000
Electronics 5%
2,500,000
VACANT 10%
300,000
2,000,000
Warehousing 35%
250,000 200,000
1,500,000
150,000
1,000,000
Production (Automotive) 13%
100,000 500,000
50,000 0
Logistics 14%
0
Production (Non-auto) 23%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: as % of total non-speculative stock
Completion volume
Stock size (right) 61% of the currently existing stock was built between 2005 and 2010 which led to a huge oversupply as demand fell back with the economic crisis.
M5 motorway towards Budapest
The average vacancy rate quickly surpassed the 20% threshold (in Q1 2009) and remained roughly at the same level since then. For sake of comparison, the market indicator generally stood under 10% before 2008.
M0 motorway
In the last four years only a handful of buildings were handed over with a total size of nearly 130,000 sq m. A further 870,000 sq m space can be delivered in the submarket. Warehousing and logistics have a leading role even in the non-speculative stock.
M5 motorway towards Kecskemét
M0-M5 Motorway Junction
source: Google Maps
Among the owner occupied schemes, the warehousing sector has the highest share with 35% from the total modern stock. Food retailers (Aldi, CBA, Lidl, Penny Market, Spar) own the largest schemes, together accounting for 60% of the owner occupied warehouse area. Above that, Tesco and Auchan are operating in leased schemes, contributing to the share of warehousing in the built-for-lease stock.
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15km
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E77
M15
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
SLOVAKIA
• Modern industrial stock accounts for a total of nearly 500,000 sq m.
Hegyeshalom Mosonmagyaróvár
AUSTRIA
• M1 West has a negligible vacancy rate with only 2%. The city of Gyo˝r is fully occupied, only immediate availaibility in the area is in Kimle.
M1
Kimle
• Almost 130,000 sq m can be developed on the market based on a potential BTS agreement. Most of this volume (100,000 sq m) could be realised by Prologis in Hegyeshalom. • Share of leased areas reaches 57%, the highest figure among all regional submarkets. E77
86
Lébény
Kunsziget E75
M85
E71
M1 85
M1 WEST IS THE MOST ESTABLISHED PAN-REGIONAL SUBMARKET
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13
Győr
84
3
M3
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS 81
83
3
Total stock (sq m)
M1
Available stock (sq m)
486,700 10,900
Immediate pipeline (sq m)
M7
Vacancy rate Share of leased area
M0
127,000 2% 57%
E71
84 86 M5
83
M1 WEST
M6
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m)
E66
Gyo˝r has old manufacturing traditions and is now it the most industrialised city in Hungary. Due to its strategic location halfway between Budapest and Vienna, it has a growing importance as a warehousing/logistics destination as well. 84
GEOGRAPHY The M1 West industrial hub primarily consists of Gyo˝r and its agglomeration. Some of the real estate stock is scattered along the M1 motorway between Gyo˝r and the Austrian border – however, no other city is close to the importance of Gyo˝r. Gyo ˝ r belongs to the wealthiest Hungarian towns based on 84
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Audi*
72,000
Leased
Propex Fabrics
39,500
Owner occupied
Rudolph Logistics
30,000
Leased
Rehau
26,000
Owner occupied
DANA
25,100
Leased
*including Audi’s logistics center only 77
purchase power statistics. Although Gyo˝ r together with its NUTS 3 region has a 3% share in the nation’s population, 10% of all industrial production is realised in this county alone. The industrial production per capita is the highest among all cities in the country.
E75
63
52
M7
76
61 E73
53
E65
54
E75
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25 REAL ESTATE MARKET - DESCRIPTION
LARGE OWNER OCCUPIED AND BTS SCHEMES BOOSTED SUPPLY IN RECENT YEARS.
OCCUPIERS’ PROFILES ARE CHARACTERISED BY EVEN SPLIT OF BUSINESSES.
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
(sq m)
Electronics 2%
500,000
120,000
Various 9% 100,000
400,000
80,000
300,000
VACANT 2% Production (Automotive) 34%
Logistics 15%
60,000 200,000 40,000 100,000
20,000 0
Production (Non-auto) 19%
Warehousing 19%
0 2005
2006
2007
Completion volume
2008
2009 20t10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stock size (right)
M1 West is the most established industrial destination among the pan-regional submarkets. It also has a substantial speculative stock which is rather negligible in other regional cities. Prologis, the biggest developer in Hungary, has its only pan-regional scheme in Hegyeshalom, right at the border of Austria and Slovakia.
Almost two-third of the modern industrial stock was built after 2005. In 2013 alone more than 100,000 sq m new industrial space was handed over – including the new logistics centre of Audi. The vast majoritiy of the real esate stock is located in the industrial park of Gyo˝ r, right next to the Audi and Rába plants.
Due to Audi’s presence since 1994, a wide range of automotive suppliers have moved to the submarket. Most of these occupiers went for BTS or BTO schemes - including Rehau, DANA, Nemak, Katek and WKW Erbslöh.
Automotive occupiers historically had a dominant share in take-up; however, logistics and non-auto related production lately contributed significantly to the demand in the area.
Apart from the automotive sector, the largest occupiers include Propex Fabrics (non-auto production), Rudolph Logistics and Renault-Nissan (warehousing).
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26
20km
27
SLOVAKIA E77
Esztergom
3 M3 REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
E75
Dorog
Komárom
E71
• Total stock reaches the size of M1 West. E71
M1
10
Tata
13
M3
Tatabánya
81
3 925,000
sq m, almost double
• Current availability is relatively high, with vacancy rate standing at 13%. Until this immediate availabilty is absorbed, we don’t expect new developments to start.
3
• Leased areas add up to a total of 52,000 sq m 33 which is far below the level registered in the neighbouring M1 West hub. • Most of the schemes are built-to-own (BTO), similarily to other parts of the pan-regional market.
Budapest M1
Oroszlány M0 M7
M1 EAST IS THE LARGEST INDUSTRIAL HUB AFTER BUDAPEST AGGLOMERATION
E71
M5 4 E60
M6
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
M1 EAST
M7
M1 East is the largest industrial hub after Budapest agglomeration with a stock size of almost 1 million sq m, located in six cities. This region is also considered as an industrial hotspot as 10% of total industrial production in 2013 was realised in the NUTS3 county of Tatabánya (second highest share after the county of Gyo˝ r – M1 West hub). Industrial production dates back to a shorter period than in Gyo˝ r. Tatabánya, the largest city in the county was established only in 1950’s as a heavy-industrial centre, similarily to Oroszlány and Dorog, two smaller centres in the region. In the 1990’s, following major structural changes in the economy, foreign companies started to invest in the region and established their first modern manufacturing schemes. The city of Tatabánya is the third most important in-
925,000
Available stock (sq m)
105,400
Immediate pipeline (sq m)
0
Vacancy rate
13%
Share of leased area
Geographically, the largest industrial centre is Tatabánya, right on the motorway M1, 60 km west from Budapest. By now, the region hosts a wide range of manufacturing occupiers, mostly from the automotive sector.
GEOGRAPHY
Total stock (sq m)
6%
E75
63
dustrial centre in Hungary, following Gyo ˝r and Székesfehérvár. It hosts a diverse mix of production companies such as AGC Glass, Bridgestone, 61 Grundfos, Otto Fuchs, Sanmina SCI, etc. In terms of E73 stock size, Komárom is the second largest location in the submarket. Industrial production was long boosted by the Nokia factory which attracted large electronic suppliers to the town. The company’s difficulties in recent years led to the closure of several suppliers and finally Nokia itself decided to terminate its production and close the remaining schemes by end of 2014. Esztergom is the home of the Suzuki plant (which is not included in our stock) hosting a number of suppliers. Oroszlány can be viewed as a small automotive cluster where 75% of the 51 stock is occupied by three automotive suppliers.
443
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m)
52
Bridgestone
53
46
160,000
Owner occupied
AGC
63,300
Owner occupied
Foxconn
50,000
Owner occupied
Otto Fuchs
40,000
Owner occupied
Sanmina SCI
40,000
Owner occupied
39,000
Owner occupied
35,000
Owner occupied
54
Nokia* Grundfos
E75
45
*Nokia has recently announced to close its factory in Komárom by the end of 2014 5
47
45 M6
53
M5
47
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29 REAL ESTATE MARKET – DESCRIPTION
BRIDGESTONE FACTORY RAISES SUPPLY TO RECORD HIGH LEVELS IN 2014.
STRONG PRESENCE OF AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
(sq m)
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
150,000
1,000,000
120,000
800,000
90,000
600,000
60,000
400,000
30,000
200,000
Logistics 3% Electronics 12%
Warehousing 1% Production (Automotive) 43%
VACANT 13%
Production (Non-auto) 28% 0
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completion volume
Stock size (right)
47% of the exisiting stock was built before 2005, this compares to the Hungarian average of 37% and M1 West hub’s average of 28%. The pipeline for this year indicates a record high level, 85% of this volume can be related to the new Bridegstone plant on 110,000 sq m. With this expansion, the Japanese company will triple its production capacity. Apart from Bridgestone, BD Medical and AGC Glass have already expanded earlier this year with 10,000 and 8,300 sq m, respectively.
Looking at the sectoral split of occupiers, automotive suppliers have an outstandingly high share of 43%. The largest players of this sector are AGC Glass, Bridgestone, Koloman Handler, Otto Fuchs and Wescast.
The non-auto production sector accounts for 28% with various occupiers such as Grundfos, GE, Henkel or Mivisa. Pharmaceutical companies - BD Medical, Coloplast and Mylan - which are also included in the latter group - have a relatively large footprint in this region. Electronics have a decreasing share as several large players left the market or reduced their production. Most of the vacant schemes were previously occupied by electronic producers. The logistics and warehousing
sectors represent a negligible share as many of these cities do not have direct motorway connections. Almost two-thirds of the vacant schemes are located in Komárom where the gradual downsizing of the Nokia factory adversely impacted on its suppliers: Savcor and Perlos have already closed. The closure of the Panasonic plant in Dorog last year has also increased vacancy.
36
20km
0
30
31
M3
E77
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
3
Gyöngyös
• Currently there are no modern vacant schemes and each of them are owner occupied buildings. Further developments, however, can be relised via 33 the extension of industrial parks in the key cities of the submarket.
M3 E71
3
E71
10
Hatvan
M3
• Hatvan and Gyöngyös are off the radar of potential BTS developers as these locations do not reach the critical mass to invest in. M35
• Total stock size is nearly 150,000 sq m which makes M3 West the smallest industrial hub.
3
33
33
Budapest M1 M0 M7 E79 E573 E71
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS M5
M3 WEST IS THE YOUNGEST M6 INDUSTRIAL HUB
Total stock (sq m)
144,000
Available stock (sq m)
42
0
4
E60 (sq m) Immediate pipeline
E60
0
Vacancy rate
0%
Share of leased area
0% E79
M3 WEST
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m)
GEOGRAPHY
E75
M3 West is the smallest industrial hub, comprising two mid-sized cities in Heves County, east of the Budapest agglomeration. Hatvan and Gyöngyös are locat52 ed 60 and 80 km away from Budapest and both within 1 hour driving distance.
61 E73
Apart from the Bosch plant, the city hosts a number of logistics schemes (Horváth Rudolf, Mader Logistics) and Decathlon’s distribution centre. The logistics and automotive sector have a leading role in Gyöngyös as well. The city’s industrial park is the home of a few automotive suppliers (Modine, Seissenschmidt, Stanley Electric). Procter&Gamble has recently handed over its 22,000 sq m manufacturng plant in the city.
Hatvan is the seat of Bosch’s auto-electronics division which is the company’s largest plant. Due to its specific nature, it is not included in our stock.
48,000
Owner occupied
Decathlon
24,000
Owner occupied
Procter&Gamble
22,000
Owner occupied
Horváth Rudolf
16,200
Owner occupied
Stanley Electric
12,00046
Owner occupied
443
45 470
53
54
44 E75
5
51
47
45 M6
Mader Logistics
53
M5
47
32
33 REAL ESTATE MARKET – DESCRIPTION
HIGHEST COMPLETION WAS REGISTERED IN 2010.
LOGISTIC SCHEMES ADD HALF OF TOTAL STOCK.
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
(sq m)
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
50,000
Electronics 4%
150,000
Production (Non-auto) 15% 40,000
120,000
30,000
90,000
20,000
60,000
10,000
30,000
Logistics 48%
Production (Automotive) 16%
Warehousing 17% 0
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Completion volume
Stock size (right)
More than half of the current stock was built in the past five years which makes M3 West the youngest industrial hub. The vicinity of Budapest is a key advantage for this hub, however, the limited labour pool (the two cities have a total population of 50,000) is an obstacle for further large-scale developments. Less labour intensive sectors (such as logistics and warehousing) have larger potential.
M3 motorway
City Centre
In terms of sectoral split, the logistics and warehousing occupiers account for two thirds of the total stock due to the relatively large size of these schemes. Automotive players have smaller schemes. Bosch plant
Bosch Factory in Hatvan
source: Google Maps
37
20km
0
34
35
Miskolc 41
E79
491
M30
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS 36
Nyíregyháza
Tiszaújváros
• Some 43,000 sq m ready-to-start immediate pipeline can be found in Miskolc and Polgár. In all of the cities further lands can be zoned for industrial use in the future.
49 at 562,000 sq m. • Total stock size stands M3
Polgár
• Current availabilty accounts for 13%, half of it is still occupied by Lego who will move out from their old scheme by 2015. The rest of the vacant schemes are all new speculative buildings, built in the last two years in Debrecen and Miskolc.
M3
• Leased areas have a reasably high share with 17%.
471
33
M35
33
33
Debrecen
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
M3 EAST HUB HAS A STRONG PRODUCTION PROFILE
Total stock (sq m) E79 E573
562,300
Available stock (sq m)
70,000
Immediate pipeline (sq m)*
43,000
Vacancy rate
13%
Share of leased area
17%
42 E60
4
*out of this, 38,000 sq m will be vacated by 2015
E60
M3 EAST
E79
Lego
GEOGRAPHY M3 East has the largest geographic extension, covering three counties and three regional cities with a population above 100,000 each. It lies in a more remote corner of the country where international transit traffic is less intense. Apart from Miskolc, none of these cities have a long industrial tradition, however due to the substantial labour pool, several production companies settled here over the last two decades. 443 46
The largest stock can be found in Nyíregyháza, however it comprises only a number of companies with large plants: Lego accounts for 160,000 sq m only, Electrolux and Michelin also occupy more than 40,000 sq m. With the exception of Lego, these companies all establised themselves in the 1990s. 470 44
47
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (sq m)
Debrecen is Hungary’s second largest city with slightly more than 200,000 inhabitants. However, its industrial role is much less important as the service sector has a strong presence in the city. It has an established pharmaceutical industry with a strong R&D background. FAG and National Instruments are the largest industrial players in town. Miskolc was a heavy-industrial centre where structural changes brought a high unemployment rate for a long time after the fall of communism. Since then the situation has improved: Bosch operates its second largest plant here in Hungary with electrical tool production since 2001. The modern industrial stock is still limited in town though. This year Takata will hand over its air-bag assemby plant with 56,000 sq m of space in a brand new indsutrial park at the edge of Miskolc.
160,000
Owner occupied
Jabil-Circuit
58,500
Owner occupied
Takata
56,600
Owner occupied
Electrolux
48,000
Owner occupied
Michelin
40,000
Leased Lego Plant, Nyíregyháza
36
37 REAL ESTATE MARKET – DESCRIPTION
NEW SUPPLY KICKED-OFF IN 2014.
STRONG PRODUCTION PROFILE
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
(sq m)
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
250,000
600,000 500,000
200,000
Warehousing 4%
Logistics 3%
VACANT 13%
Various 1% Production (Non-auto) 49%
400,000
150,000
300,000 100,000
200,000
50,000
Electronics 13%
100,000 0
0
Production (Automotive) 17%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completion volume
Stock size (right)
36% of the current stock was built before 2005. The annual completion level generally stood around 10,000 sq m, however, 2014 will bring a record high new supply as both the new Lego manufacturing plant and the Takata plant will be handed over this year. In addition to this, a new tobacco factory and two speculative developments are scheduled for this year.
From the non-auto production sector, the largest occupiers are Lego, Electrolux, Jász Plasztik and FAG. Automotive players generally choose the Western part of the country, however, Takata and Michelin adds up a total share of 17%. From the electronics sector, Jabil Circuit and National Instruments are the key players. Due to the peripheric location within the country and the less intense international transit traffic, logistics and warehousing have a negligible share of 3-4%.
38
Budapest
33
33
20km
0
39
M1 M0 M7 E79
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS E573
E71
• There is only one available scheme with 10,200 sq m GLA.
M5
• Goodman has four schemes, each are leased by Bertrans, one of them is physically vacant.
42 E60
4
• Leased areas account for 43% of the stock which is a high ratio compared to other regional cities.
E60
M6
• Total modern stock stands at 170,00 sq m.
E79
E75
3
KECSKEMÉT
443 46
52
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
61
THE HUB HAS GONE THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT YEARS E73
Total stock (sq m) 45
53
54
Available stock (sq m)
170,700 470
44
Immediate pipeline (sq m)
E75
Vacancy rate
10,200 10,000 6%
Share of leased area
43%
5
51
47
45
M5 CENTRAL 53
M6
M5
GEOGRAPHY
55
The so called M5 Central industrial hub is the city of Kecskemét only as no other locations have modern industrial stock at this part of the motorway. In 2008, Mercedes-Benz chose to establish its first Eastern-European car manufacturing plant in Kecskemét which was finally opened in 2012. In terms of revenue, it is already the second largest automotive company in Hungary,55outpacing the Suzuki factory in Esztergom. 43 Kecskemét lies approximately 90 km South-East of Budapest. Industrial production had no living tradition in the city until the 1990s and it was primarily considered as an agricultural centre with food industry.
56
Kecskemét has gone through significant development regarding its industry due to skilled labour, good education, motorway and rail connections, the proximity to the capital city and a clear industrialisation strategy of the municipality. Mercedes-Benz opened its manufacturing plant in 2012 which gave a huge boost to the industrial production figures of the area. While Kecskemét accounted for only 3.2% of the Hungarian industry in 2009, the share increased to 6.1% by 2013. This impressive growth was unmatched by other counties in the country and was mostly due to the massive investments realised in the city of Kecskemét.
47
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (in sq m) Phoenix Mecano
40,000
Owner occupied
Bertrans
22,500
Leased
Knorr-Bremse
19,000
Owner occupied
Bosal Autóflex
16,000
Owner occupied
Kühne+Nagel
10,000
Leased
40
41 REAL ESTATE MARKET – DESCRIPTION
MORE THAN HALF OF THE CURRENT STOCK WAS BUILT BEFORE 2005.
OCCUPIERS’ SPLIT SHOWS EVEN DISTRIBUTION.
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
(sq m)
VACANT 6%
200,000
30,000
Logistics 19%
25,000
Production (Non-auto) 31%
150,000 20,000 100,000
15,000 10,000
50,000 5,000 0
Production (Automotive) 21% Various 23%
0 2005
2006
2007
Completion volume
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stock size (right)
Sectoral split among occupiers show an even distribution, however there are no electronics manufacturer and warehouses in the city.
City Centre
Due to the small stock size the annual completion level shows high fluctuation. Last year, Knorr-Bremse handed over its new owner occupied scheme, whilst Phoenix Mecano expanded its production area which now reaches 40,000 sq m of modern industrial space.
Mercedes-Benz factory M5 motorway
City of Kecskemét and the Mercedes Factory
source: Google Maps
E75
E71
20km
0
42
3
E71
M1
33
43
10
13 M3
3
REAL ESTATE MARKET – KEY DETAILS
Budapest
• Modern industrial stock amounts to nearly 400,000 sq m.
M1
81
M0
33
• Currently, 49,700 sq m is available on the market. • Vacancy rate is only 13%.
M7
• A total of 25,000 sq m industrial space could be immediatly constructed in Videoton Industrial Park.
• Leased areas account for one-third of the total stock.
E573
E71
M5
42
E6
4 E60
M6
SZÉKESFEHÉRVÁR
77
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
M7 CENTRAL IS ALSO A ONE-CITY INDUSTRIAL HUB WHERE MODERN INDUSTRIAL STOCK AMOUNTS TO NEARLY 400,000 SQ M
Total stock (sq m)
E75
63
52
M7
61
395,000
Available stock (sq m)
49,700
Immediate pipeline (sq m)
25,000
Vacancy rate
13%
Share of leased area
33%
443 46
E73
45 470
53
M7 CENTRAL
44
54
E75
LARGEST OCCUPIERS (in sq m) 5
51
Székesfehérvár is one of the TOP3 industrial hotspots outside of Budapest with a healthy mix of occupiers from each sectors. M6
53
GEOGRAPHY Székesfehérvár is the home of Videoton, the 611 611 industrial group in local ownership largest Hungarian which has been present in town for 75 years. 6 It is a supplier of electronic and automative parts, operating in eight further locations nationwide. Ikarus is also an iconic local brand 66 which was one of the largest bus
producers in the world during the communist times. Most of the industrial schemes are located in Sóstó Industrial Park (260,000 sq m) along the M7 motorway. Videoton Industrial Park and Alba Industrial Zone are the two other industrial locations within the city. 55
56
M6
58
Denso
70,000
Owner occupied
Emerson
55,000
GrundfosM5
40,000
Owner occupied
Lidl
35,000
Owner occupied
DHL
26,500
45
Partially leased
47
55 43
Leased
47
44
45 REAL ESTATE MARKET – DESCRIPTION
NEW SUPPLY WAS DELIVERED UNEVENLY.
DIVERSE OCCUPIER MIX
Chart: Annual New Supply and Total Stock Size
Chart: Split of Occupiers
(sq m)
(sq m)
35,000
400,000
30,000
350,000
Electronics 4% Warehousing 9%
300,000
25,000
250,000
20,000
Production (Non-auto) 29% VACANT 13%
200,000
15,000
150,000
10,000
100,000
5,000
50,000
0 2005
2006
2007
Completion volume
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
Logistics 21% Production (Automotive) 24%
Stock size (right)
Székesfehérvár has the oldest industrial stock among the listed industrial hubs as 66% of the existing space was delivered before 2005 (the Hungarian average is 37%). Last year Grundfos handed over its new 24,000 sq m production plant in Sóstó Industrial Park, whilst G.E.B.E. Transport also built a 5,000 sq m scheme. In 2012, a speculative development was handed over with 6,000 sq m GLA in Alba Industrial Zone, right next to the motorway exit.
Sectoral split of occupiers show an even distribution. Major non-automotive producers are Emerson, Grundfos and Jüllich Glass. Emerson has just recently taken over the former Philips manufacturing plant. Jüllich Glass is a locally owned glass producer present in town from the early 1990s and supplies several automotive companies. Automotive suppliers are Denso and Harman Becker, both present in town from the mid 1990s. Denso operates in 70,000 sq m and produces diesel injection pumps. Harman Becker occupies 23,000 sq m and produces audio and infotainment systems for premium car brands. Electronics suppliers are Emerson and Videoton, however, the latter is not included in our stock. Several logistics companies are active in the city such as Alba Zöhling, DHL, Preymesser, Trans-sped and Versteijnen Logistics. Lidl has a 35,000 sq m distribution centre in the Alba Industrial Zone.
46
47 DEFINITIONS
DEFINING INDUSTRIAL STOCK (CRITERIA)
BUDAPEST CITY LOGISTICS
More central location
INCLUDED
Typical building size: 5,000 sq m
EXCLUDED
Typical unit size: 600-800 sq m Internal height: 8 m
Concrete or steel building structure built after 1995.
Highly specialised buildings with heavy industrial profile: chemical plants, iron foundries, etc.
Part of an established industrial location (industrial park)
Large car manufacturing plants (Audi, Mercedes, Suzuki, Opel)
Easy accessibility from motorway (driving time less than 30 min)
Stand-alone buildings in non established locations
Mainly driving gates Typically warehousing function
BUDAPEST AGGLOMERATION BIG-BOX
Out of town location GLA reaches at least 5,000 sq m
Typical building size: 15,000 sq m
Buildings located far from the motorway
Typical unit size: >2,000 sq m Typical internal height: 9-10 m Mainly docking gates
High level of flexibility – possibility to host various occupiers without large restructuring
Older warehouses with low technical specifications
Typically logistics function
BUILT-TO-SUIT (BTS)
Specifically designed scheme Dedicated for one tenant Typical building size: >15,000 sq m Usually production function
48
49
MARKET PRACTICE Occupancy options and timelines (months)* LEASE TERM • 3 years in existing buildings • 7-10 years for built-to-suit (BTS) projects HEADLINE RENT • Paid monthly in advance; quoted in EUR, paid in HUF • Annual indexation linked to CPI indices (usually HICP Index)
Option Leasing process - available vacant space Pre-leasing agreement for the space to be constructed in existing park
EFFECTIVE RENT • Average rent accounted over entire lease period, including financial incentives provided to tenant by landlord (e.g. rent free periods, fit-out contribution)
Build-to-suit agreement
SERVICE CHARGES • Paid monthly in advance; generally quoted in EUR, paid in HUF • Based on ‘open book principle’, reconciled annually
Own greenfield investment without master plan
SCOPE OF SERVICES INCLUDED IN SERVICE CHARGES • Security of park - common areas • Property taxes • Property insurance (excl. tenant internal area) • Property management • Maintenance and repairs • Landscaping / site cleaning • Snow removal • On-site personnel LEASE SECURITY • Bank guarantee (common) or deposit (rare), equal to 3 - 6 months’ rent + service charges + VAT • Parent company guarantee (especially in the case of new companies) INSURANCE • Liability insurance, insurance for own installations and owned equipment - covered by tenant • Building insurance and landlord liability insurance included in service charges - covered by tenant REPAIRS • Internal - covered by tenant • Structural and common areas - covered by tenant (part of the service charge) TENANT INCENTIVES • Rent-free periods • Partial fit-out according to tenant’s specification and the required adaptation works AGENT FEE – LEASE TRANSACTION • 12 - 25% of the annual rent plus VAT, subject to lease length • Fees are generally paid by the landlords SALE AND PURCHASE OF REAL ESTATE • VAT: 27% of the property purchase price or civil tax (pcc): 2% of property purchase price or 1% of share purchase (share deal, ruling from the tax authorities is recommended) • Notary, legal and mortgage book fees - 4-5% of the purchase price • Agency fee : 2-5% of the purchase price
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Own greenfield investment with master plan
*In case of a standard warehouse building.
Typical headline rental ranges by various categories (EUR/sq m/month)
Budapest Agglomeration - Big Box Regional cities - leased Budapest - City Logistics Regional cities - BTS 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: CBRE Research
Big-box type schemes in the Budapest agglomeration area are typically quoted in the headline range of EUR 2.75-4.00. The upper side of this range can be achived only in the vicinity of the airport, whilst the rest of the schemes are generally quoted of approximately EUR 3.0. The high vacancy rate gives a constants pressure on prices. Rental levels of city logistics schemes in Budapest are considerably higher (EUR 3.50-5.00) due to their smaller size. The vacancy rate has significantly decreased in these schemes over the past four years as occupiers showed higher interest towards these premises. The relatively wide rental range is due to the large quality differences. In the countryside, rents are generally a bit higher as supply from leasable schemes is limited. In case of BTS developments we can see an even higher rental level despite the longer lease lenghts. Developers are not willing to start constructions without a rental premium.
50
51 NOTES
CONTACTS For more information regarding this report please contact:
Hungary Research and Consulting Gábor Borbély Associate Director t: +36 305 475 870 e:
[email protected]
CEE Research and Consulting Jos Tromp Senior Director t: +49 (0)89 24206018 e:
[email protected]
Hungary Industrial Agency Gergely Baka Associate Director t: +36 305 187 099 e:
[email protected]
CEE Industrial Agency Joerg Kreindl Senior Director t: +48 22 544 8006 e:
[email protected]
Hungary and SEE Capital Markets Tim O’Sullivan Director t: +36 305 341 744 e:
[email protected]
CEE Capital Markets Micheal Atwell Senior Director t: +48 500 100 018 e:
[email protected]
Hungary Loránt Kibédi Varga Managing Director e:
[email protected]
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GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING CBRE Global Research and Consulting is an integrated community of preeminent researchers and consultants who provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting, and corporate and public sector strategies to investors and occupiers around the globe. Additional research produced by Global Research and Consulting can be found at www.cbre.com/research. Disclaimer Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist. Edition was closed in October 2014.
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