Indian Tsunami Early Warning System Dr. T. Srinivasa Kumar Head, Advisory Services and Satellite Oceanography Group In-charge, Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) Hyderabad, India

Tsunami Workshop, Port Alberni March 27-28, 2014

Indian  Ocean  Tsunami  of  December  26,  2004   Ø  The worst tsunami in recorded history on December 26, 2004 Ø  Magnitude 9.2 (third strongest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph) Ø  Lasted 10 minutes (longest lasting earthquake in history) Ø  229,866 confirmed dead, which includes 42,883 missing and never accounted for Ø  More than $7 billion dollars damage

Reasons for huge loss….. Ø Many nations in the Indian Ocean did not even recognize the word “tsunami” Ø Absence of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems Ø None had tsunami preparedness programs in place Ø Ignorance of the natural signs of a tsunami led to inappropriate actions

Tsunami Risk Assessment Historical Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean o 12 Apr, 1762 (BoB EQ) – 1.8 M o 31 Dec, 1881 (Car Nicobar EQ) o 27 Aug, 1883 (Krakatoa) – 2 M o 26 Jun, 1941 (Andaman EQ) o 27 Nov, 1945 (Makran EQ) – 12 M o 19 Aug, 1977 (Sunda EQ) – 5 M o 26 Dec, 2004 (Sumatra EQ) – 30 M o 28 Mar, 2005 (Sumatra EQ) – 4 M o 12 Sept, 2007 (Sumatra EQ) – 0.6 M o 11 Apr, 2012 (Sumatra EQ) – 1 M

Pakistan (M7.6) Sept 24, 2013 Makran (M8.5) Nov. 27, 1945

Car Nicobar (M7.9), Dec. 31, 1881

Sumatra (M9.3) Dec. 26, 2004 Sumatra (M8.5), April 11, 2012 Bengkulu (M8.4) Sep 12, 2007

> M7

Java (M7.8) July 17, 2006

Tsunamigenic potential EQs for India o Andaman-Sumatra & Makran subdution zones o EQ Mag > 6.5 o Earthquakes under or near ocean o Depth < 100km o Vertical movement of the sea-floor

Tsunami Risk Assessment Tsunami Travel Times & Response time •  Depending upon the Earthquake location (Makran/Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone) the response time for evacuation of coastal population could range between 20 min to few hours. •  As Andaman & Nicobar Islands are situated right on subduction zone the available response time is very short

•  If Earthquake occurs at Makran Subduction zone, Travel Time to nearest Indian Coast (Gujarat) are 2 to 3 hrs

•  If Earthquake happens at Sumatra, travel times to nearest coast (A&N Islands) are 20 to 30 min •  For Indian main land travel times are 2 to 3 hrs

Tsunami Early Warning System Detec9on  

Warnings  

Dissemina9on  

Bathymetry VSAT

Seismic Network TSUNAMI WARNINGS!!! INSAT

BPR Network

Tsunami Modelling

Capacity Building

GPRS Topography R&D

INMARSAT

Tide gauge Network

Observation Networks

Costal Vulnerability

Communications

Simulations

Last mile connectivity

Tsunami Warning Centre

24  x  7  opera9ons  

Heterogeneous Real-Time Data from a variety of Sensors Data Acquisition, Display, Processing, Archival Numerical Modeling and Decision Support Generation of Advisories and Dissemination Mission Critical - Infrastructure to be highly available

Observation Networks Ø  Seismic Network: •  More than 300 Indian and International Seismic Stations communicating via Satellite & broadband links •  Autolocation of earthquake in 3 to 12 mins

Ø  Tsunami Buoy Network: •  7 Bottom Pressure Recorders communicating via acoustic & Saatellite links

Ø  Tidegauge Network: •  26 Tideguages •  Presssure, Radar & Shaft Encoders commicating via Satellite & GPRSblinks

Ø  HF Radar Network: §  5 sets of coastal radars communicating via VSAT and broadband links

Inundation Modelling for Historical Events §  Field Surveys for Assessment of 2004 tsunami impact §  TUNAMI Model set up §  Inundation Modelling and Vulnerability mapping for Historic Earthquakes & Worst Case Scenarios 1m contours overlaid on ortho image

§  1:25000 scale maps using Cartosat §  1:5000 scale maps using ALTM §  Maps used by DMOs as guidance

Tsunami Vulnerability Map

Modelling for Operational Forecasting Open Ocean Propagation Database •  Model Domain with 3.2 million grids •  Database of Scenarios covering both Makran and Sunda Tsunamigenic Zones •  ~1400 unit sources each of 100 X 50 km area representing rupture caused by EQ of M 7.5 with slip as 1m •  Depending on EQ’s location and magnitude basic unit source open ocean propagation scenarios are either scaled up or down •  Expected Wave Arrival & Amplitude forecasts at 1800 Costal Forecast Points (CFPs) in the Indian Ocean Coast •  CFPs are then rendered to create threat profile for Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs)

Model Output Parameters EQ location map

Threat Map

§ 

T1 (Time of arrival of the minimum detectable positive amplitude wave)

§ 

T2 (Time of first exceedance of the Threat Threshold)

§ 

T3 (Time of arrival of max_beach)

§ 

T4 (Time when the last exceedance of the Threat Threshold is forecast) max_beach (Maximum Positive wave amplitude at the shore line) max_deep (Maximum positive wave amplitude in deep water in each coastal zone) Depth (Depth of the water where the max_deep occurs)

•  •  Travel time map

Directivity Map

• 

Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) Threat   Status  

Ac9on  to  be  taken  

Dissemina9on  to    

WARNING  

Public  should  be   advised  to  move   inland  towards   higher  grounds.   Vessels  should   move  into  deep   Ocean    

MoES,  MHA,   NDMA,  NCMC,   NDRF  BaEalions,   SEOC,  DEOC,   Public,  Media  

Public  should  be   advised  to  avoid   beaches  and  low-­‐ lying  coastal  areas.   Vessels  should   move  into  deep   Ocean  

MoES,  MHA,   NDMA,  NCMC,   NDRF  BaEalions,   SEOC,  DEOC,   Public,  Media    

No  immediate   acHon  is  required  

MoES,  MHA,   NDMA,  NCMC,   NDRF  BaEalions,   SEOC,  DEOC,   Media    

All  clear   determinaHon  to   be  made  by  the   local  authoriHes  

MoES,  MHA,   NDMA,  NCMC,   NDRF  BaEalions,   SEOC,  DEOC,   Public,  Media    

ALERT  

WATCH  

THREAT   PASSED  

Decision Support Software

Bulletin Types and Content (i) Tsunami Exchange and (ii) Tsunami Public

Bulletin type

Information

Type-1

Preliminary EQ Parameters

EQ info, Tsunamigenic poten.

MoES MHA NDMA

Tsunami Exchange Bulletins

Threat Passed

Public

Type-2

WARNING

WATCH

Type-2

Type-3

Real-time water level observations indicating Tsunami Generation

as and when the first real-time water level observation is available

Type-3

Real-time water level observations indicating Tsunami Generation + THREAT PASSED information for individual Zones

Hourly update / as and when the subsequent realtime water level observations are available

Final Bulletin Threat Passed

Bulletin-1

T0 + 20

as and when revised earthquake parameters are available

T1, T2, T3, T4, Max_beach, Depth, Obs

INCOIS

Threat (WARNING / ALERT / WATCH) Information from Model Scenarios Revised EQ Parameters and model results

Bulletin-2, 3,4….

EQ info, Tsunamigenic potential

No significant tsunami

WARNING ALERT

T0 + 10

No Threat Information from Model Scenarios

Bulletin-1

ALERT

Time of issue (Earthquake Origin time as T0) mins

Tsunami Public Bulletins

Bulletin-2, 3,4…. T2,Max_beach, Obs

Type-4 (Final )

Threat Passed

Final Bulletin Threat Passed

Threat Passed

120 mins after the last exceedance of 0.5 M threat threshold at last Indian Ocean member state

All Bulletins are sequentially numbered regardless of the bulletin type

Bulletin Formats Ø  Bulletin Formats §  §  §  § 

Notification Messages are issued in text format Bulletins are issued in both text and html formats Graphics are made available in jpg or png format on the website Spatial data is made available in dbf format through the ftp site

NOTIFICATION MESSAGE 1 INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTER (ITEWC) ISSUED AT: 0635 IST Wednesday 20 November 2013 TO: NATIONAL NTWC BULLETIN RECIPIENTS FROM: ITEWC NOTIFICATION: ITEWC INCOIS HAS JUST ISSUED TEST BULLETIN 1 (PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION) FOR THE INDIA, BASED ON THE FOLLOWING TEST EARTHQUAKE EVENT: MAGNITUDE: DEPTH: DATE: ORIGIN TIME: LATITUDE: LONGITUDE: LOCATION:

8.8 M 10 km 20 Nov 2013 0630 IST 3.35 N 95.96 E Northern Sumatra

TO VIEW THE TEST BULLETIN GO TO ITEWC INCOIS WEBSITE AT: www.incois.gov.in/Incois/tsunami/COMM_ntwclogin.jsp NTWC IS A SERVICE OF ITEWC, INCOIS FOR PROVIDING TSUNAMI ADVISORIES FOR INDIA. GENERAL PUBLIC INFORMATION FOR THIS TEST EVENT IS AVAILABLE FROM: INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTER (ITEWC) INDIAN NATIONAL CENTRE FOR OCEAN INFORMATION SERVICES (INCOIS) ADDRESS:"OCEAN VALLEY", PRAGATHI NAGAR (BO), NIZAMPET (SO), HYDERABAD - 500 090, INDIA. PHONE: 91-40-23895011 FAX: 91-40-23895012 EMAIL: [email protected] WEB: WWW.INCOIS.GOV.IN YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS "NOTIFICATION MESSAGE" VIA DSS_1_0 (MANUAL (INTERACTIVE)) CONFIGURED TO SEND MAIL FROM [email protected] END OF NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

Sample Notification Message

Sample Bulletins

Graphical Products

EQ Location

Threat Status

Travel Time Map

Updated Threat Status

Directivity Map

RTSP Threat Status

Dissemination of Tsunami Bulletins International Level

Fax

All 23 Indian ocean rim countries

National Level

MHA, NDMA, MoES, NDRF Head quarters, IMD & CWC

Email

SMS

Web

GTS

State Level

Principal Secretaries (Revenue) of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tamilnadu, West Bengal, Lakshadweep and Puducherry

District Level

DROs of Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Prakasham, and S.P.S Nellore

Institutional

1-10 NDRF Battalions, ALL control rooms of A&N Islands, HQWNC, HQENC, HQANC, HQSNC, NOIC Tamilnadu, Gujarat, West Bengal, NPCIL, Mumbai, Madras Atomic Power Station, Tarapur Atomic Power Station (1&2, 3&4), Kudankulam Atomic Power Unit, SHAR, MRCC, Coast Guards, Port Officers, Coastal Industries (Reliance) Media & Public subscriptions

Tsunami Mock drills ITEWC Participated in two Tsunami mock drills (i)  IOWave09 on October 14, 2009 and ii) IOWave11 on October 12, 2011

Ø  Lessons Learnt from the National Exercise ü  Warning Centre dissemination process • 

Warning Centre disseminated 15 bulletins in total, through Email, Fax, SMS, GTS and Web to 50 national and 23 international contacts

ü  Stakeholders reception process Communication mode

Elapsed time

Email

0 - 94 mins

Fax

0 - 111 mins

SMS

0 - 20 mins

ü  Time taken to notify public State

Making a decision on public warning (from time of receipt of warning)

Formulation of public notification (from time of decision)

Activation of public notification systems (from time of notification formulated

Total Elapsed time

Maharashtra

20

40

25

1 hr 20 mins

Puducherry

10

5

5

20 mins

Orissa

5

5

10

20 mins

Communication Tests Ø  Communication Tests 1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8. 

Ø 

March 16, 2011 (NTWCs) June 15, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs) September 14, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs) December 14, 2011 (NTWCs) June 13, 2012 (NTWCs) December 12, 2012 (NTWCs) June 13, 2013 (NTWCs & National DMOs) December 11, 2013 (NTWCs)

Modes of Communication •  International: Email, Fax, GTS, SMS, Web •  National: Email, Fax, SMS, Web

Ø 

Performance till now: •  Compared 6 COMMs test results •  Significant improvement over SMS, Email & Web

16 Mar 2011

15 Jun 2011 Time Delay (Mins)

14 Sep 2011

14 Dec 2011

No. of NTWCs Received

Time Delay (Mins)

No. of NTWCs Received

Time Delay (Mins)

13 Jun 2012

12 Dec 2012

No. of NTWCs Received

Time Delay (Mins)

No. of NTWCs Received

Mode

No. of NTWCs Received

Time Delay (Mins)

No. of NTWCs Received

Time Delay (Mins)

Email

19/23

0 – 11

20/22

0 – 48

22/23

0 – 15

17/19

0–9

18/21

0–2

15/17

0–4

Fax

7/23

0 – 61

10/22

0 – 91

12/23

0 – 93

13/19

0 – 35

12/21

0 – 35

6/17

0 – 32

GTS

12/23

0–5

17/22

0 – 17

17/23

0 – 26

16/19

0 – 25

15/21

0–7

12/17

0 – 14

SMS

--

--

--

--

13/23

0 – 13

15/19

0 – 23

15/21

0–1

14/17

0–3

Capacity Building, Education and Training

Ø  Workshops,  seminars,  Trainings  (na9onal  &  interna9onal),  Exhibi9ons   Ø  Capacity   building   to   public   (especially   in   near-­‐source   vulnerable   coastal   areas)   on   responding  to  earthquakes  &  tsunami  warnings   Ø  Capacity   building   to   coastal   administrators,   disaster   management   officials   and   public   on   SOPs,  use  of  tsunami  inunda9on  maps,  etc.   Ø  Include   disaster   awareness   and   response   related   topics   in   primary,   secondary   and   high   school  curriculum.    

Education Material for Tsunami Preparedness Tsunami Preparedness Material §  Tsunami Warning Centre operations Handbook & User guide §  Tsunami awareness films for Administrators, General public and Children §  Tsunami awareness & preparedness posters §  Leaflets in mutliple local languages

8.5 M earthquake on April 11, 2012 Time line

14:08

Earthquake

8.5 M 14:16  

Bulletin - 1

14:20  

Bulletin - 2

15:21  

Bulletin - 3

15:48  

Bulletin - 4 Warning for Indira Point, Komatra & Katchal Island and Car Nicobar

16:13

8.2 M 16:19  

Observed water level 1.0 M change at Meulaboh & 0.2 M at Nicobar

17:02  

18:08  

Bulletin - 5

Bulletin - 6

A L CLEAR

Earthquake

L

Bulletin - 1

16:46  

Bulletin - 2

17:08  

Bulletin - 3

17:33  

Bulletin - 4

18:29  

Bulletin - 5

Alert for Indira Point, Komatra & Katchal Island and Car Nicobar Observed water level 0.2M change at Meulaboh

ALL CLEAR

8.5 M earthquake on April 11, 2012 Tsunami Buoy & Tide gauge data during EQ on April 11, 2012

Tsunami Buoy

Tide gauge sensor

HF Radar data during EQ on April 11, 2012

HF Radar Receiver

HF Radar Transmitter

7.6 M Pakistan earthquake on Sept 24, 2013 Pakistan earthquake of Magnitude 7.6 On 24-September-2013 11:29 UTC; 24-September-2013 16:59 IST Minor water level changes are observed at different sea-level stations which could be due to submarine land slides due to this near coast major earthquake .

ITEWC Issued Bulletins Bulletin No 1: Earthquake Information M7.6 Bulletin No 2: No Tsunami threat for India and Indian Ocean region

Tsunamigenic source obtained through Backward Ray tracing Method

S.NO.   Station Name (Country)   Lat (° N)   Long (° E)   Expected Time of 1st Arrival (UTC)   1   STB02  (India)   20.80   65.34   12:28   2   Chabahar (Iran)   25.295   60.603   12:39   3   TB12 (India)   20.18   67.65   12:45   4   Suro (Oman)   22.57   59.59   12:46   5   Qurayat (Oman)   23.26   58.92   12:49   6   Muscut (Oman)   23.633   58.566   12:53   7   Jask (Iran)   25.63   57.77   13:25   8   Khawr Wudam (Oman)   23.82   57.52   13:27   9   Diba (Oman)   25.649   56.269   14:01   10   Okha (India)   22.467   69.083   14:38  

Observed Time of 1st Arrival (UTC)   12:25   12:40   12:55   12:08   12:06   12:05   14:12   13:14   13:45   17:12  

Observed Max. Wave Height (cm)   0.9   11   1.1   18   55   24   06   10   08   02  

Challenges & New Initiatives Some Challenges Ø  Under-estimation of Initial Magnitude and Tsunami wave heights •  Tohoku-Oki Earthquake on March 11, 2011 •  Big challenge in case of large earthquakes especially for near-source regions wherein there is a requirement of very quick information

Ø  Over-estimation of Forecasted Tsunami wave heights

•  Northern Sumatra Earthquake on April 11, 2012 •  Tsunami amplitude estimate “ > 2m” at Andaman & Nicobar Islands, but observed 30 cm as the actual displacement was in horizontal direction. This is due to the consideration of thrust fault mechanism in the scenario generation

Ø  Emergency Communication •  Many remote coastal villages with failed electricity or telephone communications

Ø  Non-Seismic Causes (submarine land slides, etc) New Initiatives Ø  Densification of Sensor Networks: Real-time GNSS & SMA Network at A & N Islands Ø  Modelling Enhancements (real-time modelling, water level inversion) Ø  Visualization and Analysis System for 2D and 3D Geospatial data (3DVAS) Ø  VSAT based Communication System for Emergency Operations Centres Ø  Integration of Storm Surge Forecast System

Enhancing Seismic & GNSS Network www.isgn.gov.in

Seismic station

GNSS & Strong Motion Network at A&N Islands GNSS station

Hub at INCOIS, Hyderabad

Modelling Enhancements Real-time Water level inversion

Modelling Enhancements •  Total no of Indian Ocean Tsunamigenic sources: 2(Andaman &Sumatra, Makran)+7 (includes South China sea, Banda sea, Java sea, Celeb sea) •  Total no of Indian Ocean Unit sources: 1320 •  New IO Domain Extent: 10E-160E •  Spatial Resolution: 2.5Km

 

•  No Of Output Files For Each Scenario:1500 (25 hr)

•  Integration of Inversion module into DSS under progress •  Inversion for slip distribution at unit sources •  Least square fit analysis of green functions and residuals at BPRs •  The Planned BPR network will cover the sources at Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Visualization and Analysis System for 2D and 3D Geospatial data (3DVAS) Generation of 3D GIS Maps

Risk analysis and advisory

Base Maps, Hazard Maps, vulnerability maps, database of tsunami and storm surge inundation modeling results, event data, etc.

Ground Survey: GCP, Leveling, Field Photos, Socio-economic census, etc Vulnerability maps integrated with 3D GIS database will aid in making effective disaster management plans

Storm Surge Forecasting - PHAILIN    Rushikulya  river  

Cyclone  track  forecasted  at   1500  IST  on  12-­‐10-­‐2013    

Locations along Odisha Coast

Dhepanuapada Lohadigam Humirbana Humirbana Podapadar Podapadar Agasti Naugam Agasti Naugam Ganjam Mayarpada Mayarpada Jayamangalhil Bhramarakudi Bhramarakudi

Model estimated inland extent of inundation (m)

120 70 150 100 250 800 300 150 200 300 -

Observed inland extent of inundation based on field measurement (m)

23 35 101 11 120 106 173 110 670 160 67 65 35 44

Table: Comparison of model estimated inland inundation with post storm field measurements (Precipitation is not included in the model) C o m p a r i s o n o f  model estimated residual water level with the residual water level observed by the tide gauge at Paradeep (nearest tide gauge to the landfall point). Note that Paradeep is about 220 km north of landfall point.  Storm  Surge  forecasted  by  INCOIS   based  on  the  track  forecasted  by  IMD   at  1500  IST  on  12  October  2013  

RTSP Operations of ITEWC ITEWC is playing major role in UNESCO’s Ø Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS) •  As a Regional Tsunami Advisory Service Provider (RTSP) providing bulletins to all Indian Ocean rim countries, together with RTSP Australia & Indonesia Ø Tsunamis and Other Hazards Related to Sea-Level Warning and Mitigation Systems (TOWSWG) •  Global Harmonization

Harmonized Products and Terminologies from TOWS-WG Stakeholders: •  •  •  • 

Civilians/Public/Media National authorities responsible for public safety NTWCs/NTFPs which will establish the threat level for the corresponding jurisdictions RTSPs which will provide guidance to the National Tsunami Warning Centers and Focal Points

Levels of emergency public response

Threat Level

Evacuation of areas of potential tsunami inundation (based on maps or criteria)

3

Threat of tsunami inundation

2

Threat to coastal marine areas due to strong currents and oscillations in sea level

Clearance of beaches, marine infrastructure and coastal waters due to expected strong currents and oscillations in sea level. On alert in the event that there exists the potential of a tsunami, but given the travel time of the waves, no immediate action is required until more information is available. No action necessary, this is in the case of a distant tsunami or a tsunami in another basin which will have no impact on the local area

1

0

Potential Impact

There is a potential for tsunami impact, but given the travel time, no response of the public is necessary No impact expected, no flooding, no currents