In Volatility, There Is Often Opportunity
Words of wisdom in a volatile market: Stay, Stay, Stay. In many ways, the one certainty of investing is volatility. And volatility can trigger emotional responses that cause investors to make irrational decisions, raising the chances of losing money. Wise investors stay the course with the understanding that investment success is not just a matter of how well you do in up markets but also how well you weather the downside. Inside are three points to remember when the market is experiencing volatility: stay calm, stay in, stay the course.
This material is provided for general and educational purposes only, is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice, and does not account for individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. NOT FDIC INSURED–NO BANK GUARANTEE–MAY LOSE VALUE
Stay calm. Truth is, the market doesn’t deliver returns in a straight line. Market ups and downs are normal, and it takes a lot of them to balance out to the average. During any period of market volatility, when peaks and valleys are evident, investors must evaluate their circumstances and risk tolerance. While investors can enjoy the benefits of gains in their portfolios, they also must understand that they can suffer losses when the market goes the other way. To capture the average, which historically has been over 11%, you have to be in the market for the long haul. In fact, the market produced gains in 61 out of the last 85 years—more than twice as often as it produced losses. THE MARKET RARELY MOVES IN A STRAIGHT LINE Market fluctuations and market extremes are a fact of life. The one certainty of investing is that your portfolio will experience volatility. Calendar-Year Total Returns for Large Company Stocks 1—1926–2010 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% POSITIVE RETURNS
-60%
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
NEGATIVE RETURNS
1996
2010
Source: © 2011 Morningstar, Inc.
INVESTMENTS DON’T DELIVER THE AVERAGE RETURN YEAR AFTER YEAR Market ups and downs are normal, and it takes a lot of them to balance out to the historical average. Calendar-Year Total Returns for Large Company Stocks 1—1926–2010 POSITIVE RETURNS: 72% (61 YEARS)
NEGATIVE RETURNS: 28% (24 YEARS)
-20% or More 1930 1937 1931 1974
2002 2008
6 years
-20% to -10% 1941 1966 1957 1973
2001
5 years
-10% to 0% 1929 1932 1934 1939 1940
1946 1981 1953 1990 1962 2000 1969 1977
12 years 1947 1948 1956 1960
1970 1978 1984 1987
1992 1994 2005 2007
0% to 8%
12 years 5 years 1926 1968 1959 1993
2004
8% to 12%
1944 1949 1952 1964
1965 1971 1972 1979
1986 1988 2006 2010
12% to 20%
32 years 1927 1928 1933 1935 1936 1938 1942 1943 1945 1950 1951
1954 1955 1958 1961 1963 1967 1975 1976 1980 1982 1983
1985 1989 1991 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2003 2009
20% or More
13 years Source: © 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Large company stocks represented by S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the standard for measuring large cap U.S. stock market performance, and includes a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries. The index is unmanaged and is not available for direct investment.
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Stocks, historically, have outperformed other asset classes over the long term, but tend to fluctuate more dramatically over the short term. The historical data are for illustrative purposes only, do not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett mutual fund, and are not indicative of any specific investment. Performance data quoted above are historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted.
Stay in. Successful investing requires the ability to endure market corrections, both short and long. Surges can come on suddenly, and often the biggest rallies come on the heels of a correction. Leaving when the market’s down means you’ll forfeit the great returns that typically have followed a downturn. In fact, the market has historically posted a 49% return, on average, in the 12 months following a correction of 20% or more. Another important concept to grasp is the importance of managing downside risk, or years of large negative returns. Along with the help of your financial advisor, you should carefully consider what level of exposure to stocks is appropriate given your risk tolerance, time horizon, and needs. Market Corrections of 20% or More—1926–2010 Historically, the market has posted double-digit returns in the 12 months following a correction of 20% or more. Value of $100,000 invested at each market bottom and the performance of the S&P 500 Index $100,000 Invested at Each Market Bottom Date
Duration (months)
% Decline
09/06/1929–06/01/1932
33
-86%
$262,876
163%
$444,744
35%
09/07/1932–02/27/1933
5
-41%
$198,735
99%
$254,576
07/07/1933–03/15/1935
20
-31%
$183,831
84%
$184,883
03/05/1937–03/31/1938
12
-54%
$135,180
35%
11/11/1938–04/28/1942
41
-45%
$161,241
05/29/1946–06/13/1949
37
-30%
08/02/1956–10/22/1957
14
-22%
1 year*
5 years*
10 years* $325,885
13%
21%
$334,674
13%
13%
$279,977
11%
$184,518
13%
$307,101
12%
61%
$244,886
20%
$547,201
19%
$134,416
34%
$285,172
23%
$694,502
21%
$130,042
30%
$163,081
10%
$318,326
12%
12/12/1961–06/26/1962
6
-28%
$131,157
31%
$194,837
14%
$271,130
10%
02/09/1966–10/07/1966
8
-22%
$121,017
21%
$138,763
7%
$182,368
6%
11/29/1968–05/26/1970
18
-36%
$134,749
35%
$142,210
7%
$220,677
8%
01/11/1973–10/03/1974
21
-48%
$126,048
26%
$174,331
12%
$366,343
14%
11/28/1980–08/12/1982
21
-27%
$143,876
44%
$338,589
28%
$503,793
18%
08/25/1987–12/24/1987
4
-34%
$116,809
17%
$209,046
16%
$525,445
18%
07/16/1990–10/11/1990
3
-20%
$133,514
34%
$221,374
17%
$590,446
19%
03/24/2000–10/09/2002
31
-49%
$120,809
21%
$191,480
14%
N/A
N/A
10/09/2007–03/09/2009
17
-57%
$149,747
50%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18
-39%
$149,003
49%
$224,833
17%
$390,562
14%
AVERAGES
Source: Registered Rep. magazine and Morningstar. *The $100,000 investment was made on the first day of the month following the market bottom with all distributions reinvested and no taxes applied. Had the effect of taxes been applied, returns would have been significantly lower. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year performance is based on annualized total returns of the S&P 500 Index with dividends reinvested, and percentage declines are based on cumulative price returns.
the best and worst over the long term The longer you stay in the market, the greater the potential for a positive outcome. 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-Year Holding Periods for Large Company Stocks 1—1926–2010 80%
53.99% 28.55%
40%
20.06%
0% -40% -80%
-12.47%
17.87%
-43.34%
1-YEAR PERIODS GENERATED POSITIVE RETURNS: 2 61 OUT OF 85
BEST RETURN 5-YEAR PERIODS 70 OUT OF 81
3.11%
-1.38%
10-YEAR PERIODS 72 OUT OF 76
Source: Morningstar, Inc. Maximum and minimum values of returns for 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year holding periods for large company stocks as represented by the S&P 500 Index. 2 Positive returns out of overlapping 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods.
WORST RETURN
20-YEAR PERIODS 66 OUT OF 66
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Keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. The historical data above are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any Lord Abbett mutual fund or any particular investment vehicle. Performance data quoted above are historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Stay the course. As a long-term investor, you should know that within any 20-year period, both bull and bear markets are likely. Market volatility often causes investors to make hasty emotional decisions that can have a negative impact on their portfolios’ returns. During the past 20 years,1 the S&P 500 Index realized an average annual return of 9.14%. However, to have benefited from such performance, an investor would have had to stay the course through periods of significant volatility. For example, an investor who missed just 10 of the best-performing days2 in the past 20 years would have lost out on more than one-third of the gains. From January 1, 1991, through December 31, 2010 .
EMOTIONAL DECISIONS CAN DERAIL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES Investment inflows, historically, have increased during up markets and decreased in down markets. This behavior—typically driven by exuberance or panic—can sabotage an investment strategy by missing potential upside opportunities. Total Net Equity Flows and S&P 500® Index Performance for the 20-Year Period Ended December 31, 2010 $800,000
$125.0
$700,000
$100.0
$600,000
$75.0
$500,000
$50.0
$400,000
$25.0
$300,000
$0
$200,000
$(25.0)
$100,000
$(50.0)
$0
19 9
1
19 9
2
19 9
3
19 9
4
19 9
5
19 9
6
19 9
7
19 9
8
19 9
9
GROWTH OF $100,000* IN THE S&P 500 INDEX
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2 01
0
$(75.0)
ALL DOMESTIC EQUITY FLOWS**
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Strategic Insight. * This illustration is based on the growth of a $100,000 investment over the 20-year period ended December 31, 2010. Results are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. ** Cash flows associated with the buying and selling of fixed assets.
STAY IN, OR LOSE OUT Missing the best-performing days 2 of the market can have a significant impact on your portfolio. FOR THE 20-YEAR PERIOD 01/01/1991–12/31/2010
ANNUALIZED RETURN 3
All days during period
9.14%
$100,000 Invested*** $575,110
Missed: 10 best days
5.42%
$287,006
Missed: 20 best days
2.99%
$179,939
Missed: 30 best days
0.92%
$120,098
WHAT WERE THE 10 BEST-PERFORMING DAYS? † 10/13/2008
11.58%
03/10/2009
6.37%
10/28/2008
10.79%
11/21/2008
6.35%
03/23/2009
7.10%
07/24/2002
5.73%
11/13/2008
6.93%
09/30/2008
5.42%
11/24/2008
6.47%
07/29/2002
5.42%
Source: Standard & Poor’s. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Volumes represent percentage gain in the market on the days specified. 2 The “best” days to be invested are defined as the days on which the S&P 500 Index delivered its highest returns for the given periods based on historical data. 3 Returns are measured based on the S&P 500 Index. ***This illustration depicts the value of a hypothetical $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index from January 1, 1991, through December 31, 2010, assuming the reinvestment of all distributions and without the application of any taxes. Had the effect of taxes been applied, returns would be significantly lower. S&P 500 Index: Widely regarded as the standard for measuring large cap U.S. stock market performance and includes a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries. The index is unmanaged, does not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and is not available for direct investment. †
Stocks, historically, have outperformed other asset classes over the long term, but tend to fluctuate more dramatically over the short term. Please keep in mind that the hypothetical investment values throughout this brochure do not reflect the fees and charges associated with specific investment products. If included, the results depicted would have been significantly lower. The returns reflected in the charts do not represent any Lord Abbett fund, or any particular investment performance. Investors will not experience similar results.
NET FLOWS ($ IN BILLIONS)
GROWTH OF $100,000
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Generations of Stewardship As one of the oldest money management firms in the United States, Lord Abbett has consistently served the investment needs of generations of investors, financial advisors, and institutions, and continues to serve as a trusted steward of more than $109 billion* in client assets today. We would consider it a privilege to partner with you. * As of December 31, 2010. Includes $3.3 billion for which Lord Abbett provides investment models to managed account sponsors.
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For more information on the stewardship Lord Abbett provides, c a l l 8 8 8 - 5 2 2 - 23 88 o r go to www.l o rd a b b ett.co m .
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