Newsletter June 2016 This newsletter is published on a quarterly basis and includes information on regional immigration trends, and related news and events. It also includes a feature article based on recent statistics on immigration in Atlantic Canada. The source of these statistics is Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Some of these statistics are published on the web site of IRCC. The remaining statistics are obtained through Nova Scotia Office of Immigration (NSOI), and we are thankful to them for their help in this regard. 1
Immigration trends in Atlantic Canada (2005-14) Over the period 2005-2014, Atlantic Canada increased its annual share in inflows of permanent residents in Canada from 1.5 percent to 3.1 percent. Its population now comprises 4.10 percent of immigrants (based on 2011 National Household Survey) compared to 3.75 percent in 2005 (based on 2006 Census). Over this period, each province experienced an upward trend in its immigrant inflows (Chart 1). The highest increase was in Prince Edward Island (PEI, about 5 times), followed by New Brunswick (NB, 2.6 times), Newfoundland and Labrador (NL, 1.8 times) and Nova Scotia (NS, 1.4 times). Immigration in PEI peaked in 2010. Overall, the immigrant inflows in the region more than doubled during this period. Nova Scotia lost its lead in attracting immigrants to New Brunswick in 2014.
1
Ather Akbari, Maryam Dilmaghani and David Eberhard contributed to the writing of this document in consultation with IRCC and NSOI. Responsibility for any shortcomings remain with the first author.
June 2016
1
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Chart 1: Immigration Trends in Atlantic Provinces (2005-2014) 3000
2500
Numbers
2000
NL
1500
PEI NS NB
1000
500
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
Source: Immigration Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), Facts and Figures 2014. Table 1 provides the breakdown of immigrant inflows by class. Separate breakdowns for PEI and NL are not available from published sources.
June 2016
2
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Table 1: Annual inflows of immigrants, by category, Atlantic provinces (2005 - 2014). Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Family class
462
510
436
532
479
449
432
468
609
456
Economic immigrants
1,223
1,774
1,790
1,829
1,690
1,684
1,411
1,624
1,680
1,952
Refugees
202
217
180
193
166
218
225
195
202
235
Other immigrants
42
85
117
97
89
55
70
55
38
27
Total Nova Scotia
1,929
2,586
2,523
2,651
2,424
2,406
2,138
2,342
2,529
2,670
Family class
244
249
256
291
251
211
284
238
312
244
Economic immigrants
649
1,191
1,171
1,355
1,498
1,727
1,473
1,799
1,529
2,376
Refugees
181
178
174
165
132
157
179
155
164
199
Other immigrants
17
28
42
45
32
30
31
21
14
18
Total New Brunswick
1,091
1,646
1,643
1,856
1,913
2,125
1,967
2,213
2,019
2,837
Family class
126
156
162
220
186
161
173
190
261
178
Economic immigrants
461
695
1,093
1,588
1,892
2,896
1,993
1,456
1,377
2,105
Refugees
217
204
256
208
224
216
225
153
165
224
Other immigrants
23
18
27
43
27
22
22
20
20
15
Total Other Atlantic provinces
827
1,073
1,538
2,059
2,329
3,295
2,413
1,819
1,823
2,522
Total Atlantic Provinces
3,847
5,305
5,704
6,566
6,666
7,826
6,518
6,374
6,371
8,029
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Other Atlantic provinces
Source: Immigration Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC): Facts and Figures 2014
June 2016
3
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
As Table 1 shows, New Brunswick attracted more economic immigrants than Nova Scotia since 2010, except in 2013. This trend can be attributed to the larger families of economic class immigrants arriving in New Brunswick. Nova Scotia has been attracting more economic class principal applicant immigrants (data not shown in Table 1), family class immigrants and refugees. To gain further insights into the statistics discussed above, Chart 2 provides trends in spouse and dependent multiplier per economic principal applicant who arrived during the period 2001 to 2014. This multiplier value gives the number of spouse and dependents per economic class principal applicant, arriving annually in each Atlantic province. In Nova Scotia, the multiplier has been falling since 2003 while it has been rising in New Brunswick. In 2014, for each economic class principal applicant, Nova Scotia attracted 1.14 spouse and dependents while New Brunswick attracted 1.91. Over most of the period, the multiplier has been the highest in Prince Edward Island, resulting in the highest number of immigrants there in 2010 (Chart 1), and the lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador. Hence, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador have been receiving economic class immigrants with smaller families than New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. It will be interesting to investigate the countries of origin of the economic class immigrants with larger families, the age group of principal applicants, and their number of children, for each province. This investigation could provide an important input for the provincial nominee programs whose purpose is to increase immigration levels in each province by focusing on economic immigrants.
June 2016
4
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Chart 2: Spouse and Dependent Multiplier 2.5
2
Multiplier
1.5
1
0.5
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
NS
NB
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year NL
PE
Source: Created by the Province of Nova Scotia using IRCC Q32015 data. Note: Calculated as the number of spouses and dependents per economic class principal applicant immigrant. June 2016
5
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Summary of the proceedings of the event Express Entry Immigration at One Year The Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity held two public outreach sessions in the region, to review the Express Entry Immigration system at the completion of its first year. These sessions were held in Halifax (Saint Mary’s University; March 29th, 2016) and in Moncton (University of Moncton; April 8th, 2016). Mr. Sean Morency of Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) presented on behalf of the federal government, in both locations. In Halifax, Ms. Shelley Bent of Nova Scotia Office of Immigration also presented on behalf of the province of Nova Scotia, which is the first Canadian province to use the Express Entry system in its immigrant selection. The two sessions were attended by representatives from settlement and business sectors, university faculty, researchers, and international students. The following sections present a brief summary of the two sessions. Detailed presentation slides can be found at: http://www.smu.ca/centres-and-institutes/atlantic-research-group.html
Federal perspective On January 1st, 2015, Government of Canada introduced the Express Entry system that changed the way Canada selects its skilled immigrants. The system is aimed at reducing the processing time of immigration applications to Canada. In this regard, it introduces flexibility in immigrant selection, and in the management of applications. Immigrant selection under this system is more responsive to labour market and regional demands. This new system is expected to render Canada more competitive with other major immigrant receiving countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, and to boost the economic outcomes of its immigration program. The Express Entry only applies to Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and a portion of the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). IRCC is committed to evaluating this system on a regular basis, and to make the necessary adjustments when needed.
June 2016
6
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Immigrant selection under Express Entry is competitive. Potential candidates must first express interest by creating an online profile, at no cost. Those who meet the minimum entry criteria are classified in the categories listed above, and are entered in the Express Entry selection pool. Candidates in the pool are assigned a score according to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), to rank their human capital. The CRS was developed by IRCC in collaboration with Statistics Canada, and is based on a research that identified major determinants of economic performance of immigrants. Using the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) and other immigration databases, multivariate analyses of the economic performance of immigrants who had come to Canada under FSWP, or under PNP, were performed. The impacts of key human capital factors on employment earnings were examined. Results of these analyses and some policy considerations (e.g. slightly more weight given to medium and long-term factors) formed the basis of the CRS. More details on this research can be found in the paper by Aneta Bonikowska, Feng Hou, and Garnett Picot,, “Which Human Capital Characteristics Best Predict the Earnings of Economic Immigrants?”, available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2015368-eng.htm At a given score, a candidate may or may not be invited to apply, depending on how many candidates are ranked above him/her, and how many invitations are to be issued. The pool is dynamic and a candidate’s ranking is subject to change, with other candidates entering, leaving, and improving their scores. The program a candidate qualifies for is not a factor. Generally, candidates securing 350 or higher scores are considered good candidates, but at the time of this presentation (March 2016), the lowest score among invited candidates in any of the previous rounds was 450. This high minimum score reflects the larger than expected number of candidates with a job offer or a provincial nomination. Those who scored above 460 were invited to apply within a couple of weeks. However, this threshold is subject to change, as it depends on the population of the pool, and the size of the rounds of invitation. Some more recent rounds have had minimum scores above 500. Those with scores below 450, but above 350, remain in the pool. They may qualify at a later date if (i) at the current score, their relative rankings in the pool improve or(ii) their scores increase due to the accumulation of more human capital, job offers, or through provincial nomination.
June 2016
7
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
Candidates securing a score under 350 are considered to be those who would not qualify based on results achieved up to date, and a perceived lack of labour market opportunity for them. Candidates who have a validated job offer or a provincial nomination do not wait long in the pool, to be invited. These may be new candidates or those already in the pool whose situation changed due to a job offer, or being nominated by a province, or an assessment of their educational credentials. Once invited, a candidate is given 60 days to submit his/her application, which is processed within six months. Rounds of invitations typically occur biweekly and have amounted to about 1,500 invitations per round, up to date. The number of invitations granted is based upon the need to balance progress towards the Annual Immigration Levels Plan targets, tabled in Parliament, and the capacity of the department to process applications within the processing time commitment. The number of invitations per round is expected to increase as pre-Express Entry inventory is finalized. Over the period of one year since the inception of the new system, more than 163,000 profiles were submitted. Roughly half of these profiles were rejected since they did not meet the minimum criteria. A little less than 10% of the profiles were withdrawn by the candidates. As of the beginning of April 2016, there were just over 60,000 applicants in the pool. Of these, 22% are international students enrolled in Canadian postsecondary institutions. About 1,800 profiles are created weekly. Candidates who meet the criteria for multiple federal programs are invited to apply in a program based on the hierarchy of PNP, CEC, FSWP, FSTP (Note: Candidates apply to the PNPs in order to obtain nominations). So far, such candidates have comprised less than 10% of the pool. The provincial nominees and those with arranged employment in Canada are nearly always invited. They represent 62% of the invitations issued in 2015. Thus far, Information Technology (IT) professionals, scientists, food service supervisors, and chefs have the largest representation. In addition to these vocational nominees, there is a strong component of younger candidates with higher education, language proficiency, and Canadian work experience, who are invited solely based on the strength of their human capital scores. Many international students and university professors have hovered around the 450 CRS scores, but they are fewer in number. Francophones, who make up 1% of the pool and
June 2016
8
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
2% of the invitees, also obtain scores this high. Those who rarely get invited to apply are the “business high-flyers,” since in general, their age and education level translate to a low human capital score. Among the invited candidates of 2015, about 78% were already residing in Canada. However, only 65% of those invited in the final round resided in Canada. These candidates were mostly citizens of India, Philippines, China, Britain, Ireland, and USA. As of January 3rd, 2016, over 37,000 new applications were received from candidates and family members. Over 9,700 people were admitted under this system. All of these applications were being processed within the six month proposed time frame. Moving into the future, a survey of candidates deemed ineligible for Express Entry is being developed, to see whether any structural error exists in the system that needs correcting. There will be constant monitoring and revision of the CRS, in general. There are also plans to accommodate candidates who have family already living in Canada. It is anticipated that the number of invitations will rise from 40,000 to 55,000 in 2016. IRCC will also actively engage with clients, consultants, and other stakeholders to encourage applicants to obtain necessary documents earlier in the process.
Perspective from Nova Scotia The province of Nova Scotia consults with the settlement sector, community organizations, and business employers to (i) fully grasp the need and expectations of immigration in the province in general; (ii) fully comprehend the needs of individual communities with respect to their labour market requirements; and (iii) understand the economic and cultural impacts of immigration. Immigrant selection is under the federal jurisdiction. Nova Scotia participates in the national immigrant selection through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The PNP allows the province to select and nominate individuals who will best contribute to its labour market and economy. There is no fee to apply under the PNP. Applicants are nominated under one of the five streams of Nova Scotia PNP. These streams
June 2016
9
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
include: Skilled Worker; Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry; Nova Scotia Experience: Express Entry; Entrepreneur; and International Graduate Entrepreneur. The last two streams were added on January 1st, 2016. Nova Scotia was the first Canadian province to work with the federal government under the new Express Entry system within the framework of its PNP. The following two streams have been introduced. Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry is a category which focuses on the high skilled or high human capital applicants, who can quickly impact and integrate in the provincial economy. To qualify, an applicant must possess a job offer from a Nova Scotia employer or have sufficient skills or experience in a high demand occupation, listed in the application guide. A point matrix is used to assess applicants based upon the following factors: education, age, language, work experience, arranged employment, and adaptability. Nova Scotia Experience: Express Entry is similar to the previous stream with a focus on high skill and high human capital applicants, so an immigrant can easily and quickly integrate in the labour market. The difference is that this stream is for those who have had at least one year’s work experience in the province in the last three years. This program is also a pass/fail assessment based upon education, age, language, work experience, and intention to reside in the province. In 2015, the provincial negotiations with the federal government resulted in an increase of nominee allocations for the province, from 700 to 1,350. The additional 650 nominations were made using the two PNP streams under the Express Entry system. After one year of the Express Entry system much has been learned by the province. First and foremost, a regular communication with the IRCC is needed, to ensure that there is no duplication of processing, or application redundancy. Secondly, the province wishes to increase pathways using the Express Entry system, to attract and retain more newcomers to the province. Although many issues remain to be resolved, the program’s success has been the addition of 650 nominations in 2015. This number is expected to be higher in 2016.
June 2016
10
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
New items posted 1. “Homeownership rates among visible minority immigrants.” Paper presented by Ather H. Akbari (co-authored by Azad Haider) at the 50th Canadian Economics Association meeting (Ottawa, Ontario). Home ownership: Research Paper Akbari & Haider 2. “Financial vulnerability across Canadian provinces: Age, human capital and family background.” Authored by Maryam Dilmaghani. Dilmaghani - Financial Vulnerability Across Canadian Provinces 3. Presentation slides: a. Express Entry presentation: IRCC (English) b. Express Entry presentation: IRCC (French) c. Express Entry presentation NS d. Homeownership rates among visible minority immigrants. CEA Presentation: Akbari & Haider
June 2016
11
Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity
