58th International Astronautical Congress , Hyderabad, India, 24 - 28 September 2007. Copyright IAF/IAA. All rights reserved.

IAC-07-B1.6.01 DECISION SUPPORT CENTRE FOR NATURAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT K. Radhakrishnan National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA), Hyderabad, India, [email protected] P.S. Roy National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad, India, [email protected] V.S. Hegde Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Bangalore, India, [email protected] G. Behera National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad, India, [email protected] M.V. Krishna Rao National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad, India, [email protected] V. Bhanumurthy National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad, India, [email protected]

ABSTRACT Natural disasters strike several parts of the globe at different seasons through out the year, resulting in enormous destruction of property and untold human sufferings. India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disasters like cyclone, drought, floods, earthquakes, forest fires, landslides etc., besides recent Tsunami on account its unique geographical position, climate and geological setting. Each year disasters account for loss of millions of dollars in terms of social and community assets besides economic losses that are both immediate as well as long term in nature. In recent years, the focus of disaster management community is increasingly moving on to more effective utilization of emerging technologies such as remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Satellite Communication, enabling to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts. Indian space infrastructure consisting of Indian Remote sensing satellites & INSAT system is uniquely placed to provide services related to Disaster watch, Warning dissemination, Data collection, Monitoring, Damage assessment, Vulnerability mapping, Communication support etc. Keeping in view of the potential of space technology, Department of Space (DOS) Govt. of India has launched a major programme for providing space based inputs to the nation for disaster management support. In this regard the Decision Support Centre (DSC) was established under Disaster Management Support Programme by Department of Space as an operational service provider of space enabled inputs for use of State and Central govt. user departments during pre-disaster, during disaster and post-disaster phases. A VSAT based satellite communication network is in place for online transfer of space enabled inputs to the State and Central govt. user departments. At present the DSC is addressing natural disasters viz., Floods, Cyclone, Agricultural Drought, Forest fires, Earthquake and Landslides. As soon as information on the impending disaster is alerted by the identified nodal forecasting organizations, space and airborne data are acquired and analysed. First level information thus derived from space data are made available to the concerned State and Central agencies for taking relief actions on the ground. Further monitoring is undertaken on a regular basis for damage assessment. DSC also aims at building a comprehensive geo-spatial database of the disaster vulnerable regions of the country for more value addition and generation of user friendly products for decision making. DSC will have online interface with the concerned agencies for effective utilisation of ground observations with the space data for appropriate decision support. At present DSC is operationally providing information at national level on flood inundation progression, recession and damages in near real-time, agricultural drought situation reports, daily active forest fire locations besides event based assessment of impacts due to earthquake, landslides and cyclone. The paper mainly describes the infrastructure created and the services provided to the nation for natural disaster management through DSC with selected recent case studies successfully executed.

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1. INTRODUCTION At the global level, there has been considerable concern over natural disasters. Even though substantial scientific and material progress is made, the loss of lives and property due to disasters has not decreased. India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disaster on account of its geo-climatic conditions. Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides have been recurrent phenomena. In India, about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities; over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is susceptible to drought. In the decade 1990-2000, an average of about 4344 people lost their lives and about 30 million people were affected by disasters every year. The loss in terms of private, community and public assets has been astronomical. It is well recognized that development cannot be sustainable without building in hazard mitigation into the planning process. Keeping this in view, Government of India has brought about a change in disaster handling policy, which emphasizes mitigation, prevention and preparedness. The new policy also emanates from the belief that investments in mitigation, prevention and preparedness are much more cost effective than expenditure on relief and rehabilitation. Disaster management is a typically multi-disciplinary endeavour, requiring many types of data with spatial and temporal attributes that should be made available to key players in the right format for decision-making. Disaster information involves more than just data and several interconnecting steps are typically required to generate the type of action–oriented products that are needed by the disaster management community. In recent years, the focus of disaster management community is increasingly moving on to more effective utilization of

emerging technologies. In this context contemporary technology such as GIS, GPS, database, Internet etc will play an important role. Such as remote sensing, GIS, satellite communication, enabling to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts. The use of such technologies has been proven useful in the risk assessment, mitigation and preparedness phases of disaster management. It is imperative that recent technological advances be fully harnessed to aid the disaster managers towards reducing loss of life and property. 2. OVERVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS INDIAN SCENARIO 2.1 Cyclones Tropical Cyclones are intense low pressure systems which develop over warm sea. They are capable of causing immense damage due to strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges. The frequency of the TC in the Bay of Bengal is 4 to 5 times more than in the Arabian Sea. About 35% of initial disturbances in the north Indian ocean reach TC stage of which 45% become severe. India has a long coastline of approximately 8000 km. There are two distinct cyclone seasons: pre-monsoon (May-June) and postmonsoon (October-November). The impact of these cyclones is confined to the coastal districts, the maximum destruction being within 100 km from the centre of the cyclones and on either side of the storm track. Most casualties are caused due to coastal inundation by tidal waves, storm surges and torrential rains. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is mandated to monitor and give warnings regarding Tropical Cyclone (TC). Monitoring process has been revolutionized by the advent of remote sensing techniques. A TC intensity analysis and forecast scheme has been worked out using satellite image interpretation techniques along with

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conventional data which facilitate cyclone warning and forecasting of storm surges.

identification of zones affected by drought during kharif and rabi seasons.

2.2 Floods

2.4 Forest Fires

Seventy five per cent of rainfall in India is concentrated during monsoon months (June - September) and as most of the rivers carry heavy discharge during this period. The problem of sediment deposition, drainage congestion and synchronization of river floods compound the flood hazard with sea tides in the coastal plains. The most flood prone basins in India are the Brahmaputra, the Ganga and Mahanadi river basins. While the area liable to floods is 40 million hectares (mha), the average area affected by floods annually is about 8 mha. Central Water Commission (CWC) is the nodal agency for providing the flood forecast. At present there are 175 flood forecasting stations including 28 inflow stations on 70 Inter-State Rivers.

The normal fire season in India is from the month of February to mid June. India witnessed the most severe forest fires in the recent time during the summer of 1995 in the hills of Uttar Pradesh & Himachal Pradesh. The fires were very severe and attracted the attention of whole nation, an area of 677,700 ha was affected by fires, causing a loss of timber worth $ 4.5 million. The losses from fires in respect of changes in biodiversity, carbons sequestration capability, soil moisture and nutrient losses etc. can not be measured but, nevertheless, are very significant from the point of view of ecological stability and environmental conservation. Statistics on fire damage are poor in the country. According to the Forest Survey of India (FSI) around 50% of the forest areas are fire prone. This does not mean that 50% of the national forest area is affected by fires annually. Very heavy, heavy and frequent forest fire damages are noticed only over 0.8%, 0.14% and 5.16% of the forest areas respectively. Thus, only 6.17% of the forests are prone to severe fire damage. In absolute term, out of the 63 million ha of forests, an area of around 3.73 million ha can be presumed to be affected by fires annually.

2.3 Droughts India is largely monsoon dependant irrigation network. An erratic pattern, both low (less than 750 mm) and medium (750 1125 mm) makes 68 per cent of the total area vulnerable to periodic droughts. A 100year analysis reveals that the frequency of occurrence of below normal rainfall in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas is 54-57%. Severe and rare droughts occur in arid and semi-arid zones every 8-9 years. Semi-arid and arid climatic zones are subject to about 50 per cent of severe droughts that cover generally 76 percent of the area. In this region, rare droughts of most severe intensity occurred on an average once in 32 years and almost every third year used to be a drought year. A specialized unit is functioning in IMD to monitor and study agro-climatic aspects of drought. The Aridity Anomaly Index based on rainfall, soil moisture and evapo-transpiration from a network of evapo-transpiration and soil moisture observing stations is computed for

2.5 Earthquakes The Himalayan mountain ranges are considered to be the world’s youngest fold mountain ranges. The subterranean Himalayas are geologically very active. In a span of 53 years four earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8 have occurred in this region. The peninsular part of India comprises stable continental crust. Although these regions were considered seismically least active, occasionally could cause great havoc as in the case of Latur earthquake in Maharashtra during 1993. Seismological 3

network for earthquake monitoring has been established for the sub-Himalayan region and northwest India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the primary agency for monitoring, maintains a network of 37 seismological observatories. 2.6 Tsunami Tsunami is a series of ocean waves of extremely long wavelength of the order of about 100 kilometers to 250 kilometers in the deep ocean, generated primarily by earthquake occurring below the ocean floor. Underwater volcanic eruptions and landslides can also generate tsunami. After the December 26, 2004 Tsunami, resulting in colossal loss of life and property, it was decided by Govt. of India to set up an early warning system to mitigate such potential losses. In the vicinity of India, there are two tsunamigenic zones, Andaman-Sumatra trench and the Makran Coast. The project on “Establishment of National Early Warning System for Tsunami & Storm Surges in the Indian Ocean” was approved by the Government of India in October 2005 for implementation at a cost of about $31.5 million with the Ministry of Earth Sciences as the nodal ministry. The National Early Warning System is targeted to be made operational by September 2007 after necessary testing and simulations. The system will be set up at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad. 2.7 Landslides and Avalanches The Himalayas, the Northeast hill ranges and the Western Ghats experience considerable landslide activity of varying intensities. River erosions, seismic movements and heavy rainfalls cause considerable activity. Heavy monsoon rainfall often in association with cyclonic disturbances result in considerable landslide activity on the slopes of the Western Ghats.

Geological Survey of India is identified as nodal agency for landslide disaster. Avalanches constitute a major hazard in higher reaches of the Himalayas. Parts of the Himalayas receive snowfall round the year and adventure sports are in abundance in such locations. Severe snow avalanches occur in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and the Hills of Western Uttar Pradesh. The population of about 20,000 in Nubra and Shyok valleys and mountaineers and trekkers face avalanche hazard on account of a steep fall. 3.0 ISRO DISASTER MANAGEMENT SUPPORT (DMS) PROGRAMME The colossal damage caused by the above cited natural disasters, though, cannot be nullified, yet they can be mitigated by integrating new and existing technology and expertise, and by managing risk through various structural and non-structural strategies. One of the most important elements in disaster management is the availability of timely information for taking decisions and actions. Hence, the necessity of a well-defined system has become obvious to address the various information needs and to provide an operational service with its framework and the Government of India has taken several strategic initiatives from time to time to combat the situation. The developments in space technology offer tremendous technological potential to address the critical information needs during all the phases of disaster management, which include mitigation and preparedness, response and recovery/relief. The operational role of satellite communications in providing the emergency communications viz., satellite phones, point-to-point networking solutions routed through the arrays of VSATs deployments in remote and inaccessible areas, Cyclone Warning and Dissemination Systems (CWDS), Data 4

Collection Platforms (DCP) and Satellite Aided Search & Rescue (SAS&R) are critical if there are well-knit institutional mechanisms to integrate the operational services emanating from these technologies for operational purposes. Role of space applications in disaster management lies in its criticality to produce as well as disseminate the information on real/near real time basis. In last couple of decades, space applications to disaster management have gone through the phases of experimental demonstration, semioperational and operationalisation in certain areas of disaster management. For example, ISRO/DOS has been carrying out, since 1987-88, the monitoring of floods and drought in the country. Similarly, ISRO/DOS has carried out several users' projects, for example, landslide hazard zonation which is purely based on their needs and operational utilizations. However, the real strength of theses applications could be realized only in the synergy and convergence with other collateral information as well as in tune with traditional technologies. The role of space applications related agencies holds significance in terms of enabling this to happen and aiding the appropriate value so that the final delivered products could be in harmony with the operational needs of the disaster management community down the line. This is where space agencies assumes vitality and of the operational importance. The efforts of DOS have led to sensitization and awareness building among the users' community about space applications during the different phases of disaster management, establishing the operational reliance, of space technology applications in addressing some of the important disaster management related issues and visible willingness of policy-makers, administrators at the various levels, academia, NGOs and the people at the large to accept the subjectivity of the

services emanating from space applications. In the process of demonstrating the operational capabilities of the space systems to support disaster management activities of the country, the DOS had several interactions with the main stream bodies concerned with the disaster management such as the HPC and the Working Group on disaster management. In this background, the DOS felt a strong need to evolve and execute a programme for integrating operationally the space technology inputs and services on a reliable and timely basis for strengthening country’s resolve towards disaster management. Thus, the Disaster Management Support (DMS) Programme has been identified as one of the major activities of the DOS during the Tenth Five Year plan. In consonance with the programmatic goals, the DMS Programme addresses: (i) creation of digital databases at appropriate scales for facilitating hazard zonation, damage assessment, etc., in perennially disaster prone areas, (ii) development of appropriate RS & GIS based decision support tools and techniques and demonstrations catering to the information needs at different levels, (iii) acquisition of close contour information for priority areas, (iv) strengthening the communications backbone for addressing the real time / near real time information transfer needs and (v) networking of scientific institutions for exchange of data, information and knowledge. Towards enabling the operational services as cited above, it has been proposed to establish a Decision Support Centre (DSC) at NRSA, as a single window service provider, interfacing with the National / State disaster management agencies. 3.1 Establishment of DSC Department of Space established a Decision Support Centre (DSC) at National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) under ISRO Disaster Management Support Programme 5

(DMSP). DSC is an operational service provider for space enabled inputs together with other important data layers for its use in disaster management by the State and Central govt. user departments in predisaster, during disaster and post-disaster phases. A VSAT based satellite communication network has been put in place for online transfer of space enabled inputs to the State and Central govt. user departments. At present, DSC is addressing five natural disasters viz., Flood, Cyclone, Agricultural Drought, Forest fires, Earthquake and Landslides and the following are the identified functions of DSC and figure-1 shows DSC operation. i.

As soon as information on the disaster is obtained from the identified nodal forecasting organization or Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), actions for acquisition of space and airborne data are organized.

ii.

Depending upon the satellite pass, cameras are tilted and data are obtained and analysed. First level information thus derived from space data are made available to MHA and Central & State user agencies.

iii.

Further monitoring is undertaken on a regular basis for damage assessment.

iv.

DSC has provision to mobilize aircraft equipped with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Air-borne Laser Terrain Mapping unit (ALTM) and High Resolution Digital Camera for obtaining aerial data.

v.

DSC also aims at building a comprehensive geo-spatial database for the disaster vulnerable regions in the country.

vi.

Decision support tools are being developed for decision-making using available geospatial data sets in centralized data server.

vii.

Satellite based connectivity with the National and State Emergency Operation Centres is established for fast dissemination, besides web hosting.

viii.

DSC shall also be working on preparation of maps showing hazard zonation.

ix.

DSC is also working on use of space inputs for long-term disaster mitigation and rehabilitation.

x.

DSC provides support to the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters.

Fig.1 Flow diagram of DSC operation

3.2 DSC Infrastructure DSC was equipped with necessary infrastructure to execute its function and respond to the disaster situation depending upon the nature of the disaster in providing timely information. Figure-2 shows the DSC analysis lab. DSC is equipped with Network Attached Storage (NAS) and high-end computer hardware and software resources for handling large volume of geospatial data in a secured environment. DSC is protected 6

by physical Access Control system (ACS) and network firewall. Exclusive Servers were positioned to manage (i) all the application software network licenses, active directory services and antivirus services for user authentication, licenses management and security, (ii) Internet Information Services (IIS) web server, ServeletExec application server,ArcIMS Map server and (iii) Web Server: Apache web server, Oracle Application Server. Figure-3 shows the DSC Server room. For timely dissemination of information and effective interaction with key players in disaster management, a dedicated satellite based network was established in DSC control room, operating on extended C-band onboard INSAT satellite. It has important facilities like Video conferencing, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and Data transfer. The central network hub is located at Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi. There are 9 primary nodes located at various knowledge institutions and key offices of Government across the country like NRSA, IMD, CWC, GSI, INCOIS, SAC, SOI and MCF. There are 22 important user nodes connecting the State Emergency Operation Centres (SEOCs) situated at the respective state Head Quarters with NEOC. Figure-4 shows the DSC control room. In the second phase, it is planned to expand the network with additional 200 nodes in 170 multi-hazard prone district HQs and 30 Disaster Management authorities. DSC is in process of positioning a dedicated aircraft for disaster survey, exclusive Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) for all weather monitoring and an Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) along with Digital Camera for high resolution terrain mapping.

Fig.2 DSC analysis lab

Fig.3 DSC Server room

Fig.4 DSC Control room

3.3 DSC Deliverables Keeping in view of the user requirements and the potential of space data in disaster management, the following deliverables are being provided on operational level. Table-1 shows the details of the deliverable and its utilization aspects in disaster management.

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Table-1 S.No Disaster

Deliverables

Utilisation

1

Flood & cyclone

Satellite data Flood inundation map Flood damages Flood control works & River configuration Bank erosion Identification of chronic flood prone areas & Floodplain information

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Drought Monitoring

Fortnightly drought condition assessment

To map inundated areas Organizing relief operations Quick assessment of flood damages for providing relief & Rehabilitation Strengthening of existing works & planning of future flood control works Planning anti erosion works Hazard zonation & floodplain regulation, planning flood control works Planning contingency measures Drought mitigation programmes

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Forest fire

5

Landslides

6

Earthquake

Forest fire detection Estimation of extent of forest fire Landslide hazard zonation Affected area map Probable earth quake hazard zonation

4.0 RESPONSE OF DSC DURING RECENT DISASTERS DSC responded timely and provided aerospace information to the nation for disaster management. Some of the important recent responses of DSC in respect of following disasters are given below. 4.1 Floods Country underwent widespread flooding during 2006, with major floods in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Orissa states. A constant watch was kept on the flood situation in the country and satellite data was programmed and acquired. The

Fire extinguishing operations Assessment of damages Mitigation measures to minimize landslides occurrence For quick assessment of the affected area and for planning rescue and relief measures. To regulate development & construction practices acquired data was analysed and flood inundation maps at state-level, district-level and area-specific level were prepared and provided to the concerned user departments in near real-time. About 68 flood maps covering 11 states were prepared using multi-temporal and multi -satellite data sets. The information is being utilised for planning relief and rescue operations, assessment of damages and for planning flood mitigation measures. Figure -5 shows the flood inundation in various states along with frequency of monitoring. Figure -6 shows the flood inundation maps generated for floods in Orissa state.

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Fig. 5 Flood inundated areas in 2006 as observed from satellite data

Fig. 6 Flood inundation maps for Orissa State at different levels

4.2 Agricultural Drought National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS) provides near real-time information on prevalence, severity level and persistence of agricultural drought at state/district/subdistrict level during kharif season (JuneNovember) Currently, the project covers 13 states, which are predominantly agriculture based and prone to drought situation. The agricultural area of each district is monitored using time series NDVI with the support of ground data. The assessment of agricultural drought situation takes in to consideration, the satellite derived information on (a) seasonal NDVI progression – i.e transformation of NDVI from the beginning of the season, (b) comparison of NDVI profile with previous normal years and (c) Vegetation Condition Index, integrated with ground information on cropping pattern,

irrigation support, crop sown areas, soils, rainfall etc. During June to August, drought warning information is issued in terms of “watch, alert and normal” categories. In case of ‘watch’, external intervention is required, if similar drought like conditions persist during the successive month while ‘alert’ calls for immediate external intervention, in terms of crop contingency plans. During September and October, based on NDVI anomalies corroborated by ground situation, drought declaration is done in terms of mild, moderate and severe drought. The input is being utilised for review meetings of agricultural situation by Agriculture departments, planning for contingency plans and relief assessment and management. Figure-7 shows the drought affected areas in the country during 2006 and figure-8 shows the assessment of agricultural drought at state, district and sub-district levels.

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Fig.7 Agricultural drought situation during 2006 as observed from satellite data

Fig.8 Assessment of agricultural drought situation at different levels

4.3 Forest Fires Advances in satellite remote sensing have enhanced the ability to provide near real time detection of forest fires, fire progression, burnt area assessment and inputs for ecological damage assessment. In this context, The Indian Forest Fire Response and Assessment System (INFFRAS) has been established under the DSC to facilitate forest fire management. INFFRAS integrates multi sensor satellite data with GIS databases to address forest

Fig. 9 Forest fire location in India as detected from the MODIS data.

fire management relevant to pre-, duringand post- fire scenarios. Short-wave infrared (SWIR) and thermal IR data based temperature anomalies are used for detection of active fire locations. Daily day time fire alert is being updated within two hours of satellite pass & night time fire location is updated by 1030 IST, the next day in INFFRAS. Figure- 9 shows the forest fire location in India as detected from the MODIS data. Figure- 10 shows the burnt area assessment using IRS-LISS-III data.

Fig. 10 Burnt area assessment using IRS-LISS-III data

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5.0 CONCLUSIONS 4.4 Earthquake Earth observation platform provides a vital support in the post disaster scenario. Damage assessment both at regional and detailed scales are carried out using change detection algorithm. Satellite remote sensing has a limited role in the prediction of earthquake but nevertheless it plays a major role in earthquake damage assessment. The recent Jammu & Kashmir earthquake of 8Oct-2005 damage assessment maps were prepared and sent to relief commissioner for relief and rehabilitation. Figure- 11 shows the damaged buildings due to 08 October 2005 earthquake as interpreted from the stereo data of 09 October 2005 from Cartosat satellite.

Space technology has its own potential role in the relief, rehabilitation, mitigation and forecasting phases of disaster management as demonstrated in this paper. However, still there exits gaps in terms of space data availability immediately after a disaster event, detailed information database in GIS environment for disaster prone areas, etc. The strength of GIS lies in the ability to represent the real world situation closely with layers of information (maps) that can be combined in a predetermined manner to identify the impacts of a natural hazard. With more advances in the space and other contemporary technologies stored in future, with sophisticated sensors and development of decision support tools, it is possible to make a safer India from natural disasters.

Fig. 11 Damaged buildings in Jammu & Kashmir area due to 08 October 2005 earthquake as interpreted from the stereo data of Cartosat of 09 October 2005.

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6.0 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors convey their sincere gratitude to Dr. G Madhavan Nair, Chairman, ISRO for his constant support and guidance in conceiving and launching of Disaster Management Support Programme and establishment of Decision Support Centre at NRSA. Thanks are due to all ISRO/ DOS Centre Directors for their support in DMSP. The authors also convey their thanks to the concerned scientists who have contributed in the work presented in this paper.

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