Study Report
HVAC Overlapping Study
BSRIA Ltd – Worldwide Market Intelligence June 2009 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2003
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2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
Product focus
Air conditioning VRF Rooftops Indoor pack aged US ducted Chillers Fan coils Moveables Windows AHU Minisplits Chilled ceilings
Heating Condensing wall hung gas boilers Non-condensing wall hung gas boilers Floor standing atmospheric gas boilers Oil/gas pressure jet boilers Solid fuel boilers Radiators Towel rails Electric storage water heaters Electric instantaneous water heaters Gas storage water heaters Gas instantaneous water heaters Cylinders
Renewables Ground/ water to water Air to water –split systems Exhaust air/ water (combined with heat recovery) Air to water – cylinder-integrated water heater Solar thermal flat plate collectors Solar thermal vacuum tubes Heat recovery Micro-CHP Biomass
Products included in the market data, trends and forecasts Products included in the individual company sales data
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De Dietrich Remeha Heating specialist Netherlands & France
Profiles - Manufacturers Danfoss Components specialist Denmark
Daikin AC specialist Japan/Europe
Baxi Heating specialist UK
Toshiba Carrier AC specialist USA/Japan/Europe
Fujitsu AC specialist Japan/Europe
JCI HVAC & R USA Mitsubishi Electric AC specialist Japan/Europe
Ferroli Heating specialist Italy
Riello Heating specialist Italy
Ariston Heating specialist Report 52093/1 Italy
Vaillant Heating specialist Germany CIAT AC specialist France
Sanyo AC specialist Japan/Europe
MHI AC specialist Japan/Europe Bosch Thermotechnik Heating specialist Germany Viessmann
3Heating specialist Germany
LG AC specialist Korea/Europe Hitachi AC specialist Japan/Europe
Profiles - Distributors
Germany
France
UK
Spain
Italy
GC Group
Algorel
Cealco
Cambielli
Frigotechnik
Brossette
Dean & Wood Graham
Grupo HDF
Centro Gamma
HAGRO
Comafranc
Salvator Escoda
Delta
Reiss Kälte-Klima GmbH & Co
D&C
Plumbase/ Plumbline
Thisa
Europa 2000
DSC
PTS Plumbing
Almagrupo
Idroteam
Richter + Frenzel
Rexel
Wolseley
Idrotrade
Sonepar
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Contents
Part I – Market trends (34 slides) Part II – Market impacts (14 slides) Part III – Supplier analysis (108 slides) Part IV – Distributor analysis (56 slides) Part V – What next? (43 slides)
Profiles:
Manufacturers – 19 groups (~ 30 slides per profile) HVAC distributors – 26 companies (~10-15 slides per profile)
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How big is the market in the 5 countries – by volume? (2008)
HEATING
Domestic boilers 4.4 M units
Minisplits < 5kW AIR CONDITIONING 1.5 M units
Commercial boilers 0.09 M units
Minisplits >5kW VRF 1.2 M units 0.07 M 2.8 M units units
Heat pumpsSolar thermal RENEWABLES 0.2 M units3.17 M sq.m. 0.6 M units /systems 579,700 systems
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Water heaters 6.3 M units
10.8 M units
Total market size in 2008 by product, € million
Market size for Germany, UK, Spain, France, Italy, 2008
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Domestic boilers
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Commercial boilers
Water heaters
Minisplits 5kW
7
VRFs
Heat pumps
Solar thermal
Key 5 countries - Market trends and forecast heat pumps, by volume (‘000 units), 2003-2012
300 250 200 Water to water Air to water
150
Exhaust air 100 50 0 2003
2004
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2006
2007
2008E
2009F
8
2010F
2011F
2012F
Forces in the AC market – Industry competition Germany Industry Competition - The number of split suppliers, especially in the VRF sector has increased in the last few years. - There are especially additional Chinese companies, which try to get in the market, but the problem is the distribution - Single splits are weather dependent and therefore it can happen that there is a high price competition (DIY) if the weather is bad and a lot of units are on stock. - No production of splits in Germany. - As in former years we have in Germany market segments with very low prices (e.g. DIY stores, Elektrofachmärkte), low prices (Stulz with Haier), and with high prices (e.g. Stulz with MHI, Daikin). - Pre and after sales services are important in Germany, but also product guarantees (e.g. Panasonic 5 years, Daikin 3 years). - Germany is a relatively small split market with many suppliers. The consequence is a strong competition in the market, especially in the tender process. - Products with energy label have increasing importance (energy prices!).
Italy Industry Competition - Increased competition due to market downturn in both commercial and residential markets - Easing competitive pressure from new entrants from China in the residential market - Increasing bargaining power of wholesalers and retailers - Consumers more educated to air conditioning product and therefore increasingly demanding - Economic crisis affecting sales - Competitors moving towards commercial market which is less dramatically affected by sales drop - Retail market crash hits Chinese products severely
UK Industry Competition -Partnerships for training between manufactures and distributors -Heating companies e.g. Vaillant and Viessman entering minisplits market thorough OEM agreements with Midea -Heavy discounting expected especially for VRF, as there will be limited amount of projects. -Downturn in market may see less established brands pull out of UK market -The internet will have limited impact on AC as it is engineered
France Industry Competition - Hands on distribution for air conditioning and heating systems - Heat pumps sold through air conditioning and heating distribution networks - Availability of stock and widespread regional presence as a key to success - Mix of distribution routes, but higher control of network via own branches
Spain Industry Competition - Mature market regarding splits, VRF has market to expand over all in the mini and maxi versions eroding the lower and mid power ranges of chillers. - A large number of companies involved in the minisplit market. - Large size of stock levels, allow a smooth distribution. - Post service and maintenance has become task forces by key players. - High discount levels offered in current environment.
Supply market overview – the strategic groups Japanese AC
Other Asia AC
Europe AC
German Heating
Other Europe Heating
Others
Daikin Mitsubishi Electric
LG
CIAT
Bosch T Vaillant Viessmann
Ariston Ferroli Riello
Danfoss JCI
Fujitsu Hitachi MHI Sanyo Toshiba Carrier
Baxi De Dietrich
This type of distinction will be used in all the presentation, with the same colour code Report 52093/1
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Details of overlaps in HVAC and Renewables Overlap in markets, by value, Europe, 2008, € million*1 € 33.6 million
€ 69.8 million
€ 137.0 million
€ 497.6 million
Report 52093/1 *1 based on all products and countries relevant for the purpose of this study *2 excluding PV and heat recovery sales *3 excluding PV and heat recovery sales
11
AC doing Heating Daikin
Heating doing AC Ariston Bosch Ferroli Riello Vaillant AC doing Renewables*2 CIAT Daikin Hitachi Mitsubishi E Toshiba/Carrier Sanyo Heating Doing Renewables*3 Ariston Baxi Bosch Danfoss DeDietrich Ferroli Riello Vaillant Viessmann
Market share of the 19 groups by country of origin, %
Japan AC 40%
Germany Heating 31%
Sum of Total
Country of origin Sector of origin
Denmark Components 0% USA Controls 2%
Italy Heating 12% Korea AC 3%
France AC 4%
France Heating 2%
UK Heating 6%
Clear leadership of Japan AC and Germany Heating groups Report 52093/1
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Market share in France of the manufacturers in heating, cooling and renewables market, Euro M (1)
JCI Hitachi Fujitsu Ferroli Renewables Heating Air Conditioning
Danfoss Daikin CIAT BT Baxi Ariston 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Market share in France of the manufacturers in heating, cooling and renewables market, Euro M (2)
Viessmann
Vaillant
Toshiba Carrier Renewables Heating Air Conditioning
Sanyo Riello De Dietrich Remeha Mitsubishi Electric MHI
LG 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Tier one
Strengths and weaknesses – HEATING
Ariston
Baxi Germany Water heaters
Germany France
Commercial boilers
Water heaters
UK
Domestic boilers
France
Commercial boilers
Italy
UK
Domestic boilers
Spain
Italy Spain
Bosch Thermotechnik
Vaillant Germany
Water heaters
Germany France
Commercial boilers
Water heaters
France
UK
Commercial boilers
Domestic boilers
UK
Italy
Domestic boilers
Italy
Spain
Spain
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The suppliers viewed by distributors - Riello “Very good technical support / post sale service”
“Large range of products Is becoming strong in renewables”
Riello “Riello brand via dedicated agents only, competitor for wholesalers
“Expected to reduce in the French market”
“Very good at winning public sector bids in Italy”
Beretta products via wholesalers”
Opinions expressed during interviews with up to 27 leading distributors in Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain Report 52093/1
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Strengths of Mitsubishi Electric World wide VRF market leader along Daikin
Very strong position in residential and commercial markets
Expanding its share upon the renewables & heating markets, overall in Europe
Strong focus on the CO2 emissions reduction Strong position in the air to water heat pumps Report 52093/1
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The distribution routes in Germany - AC Distribution for single and multisplits, % of volume Manufacturer single & multi splits Daikin, Airwell, MHI, ME, Hitachi, LG, Carrier, Toshiba, Sanyo, Samsung, etc
30-35%
