How Will Climate Change Affect Birds?

David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Western Michigan University

Temperature Anomaly (oC)

Since 1900, Earth has warmed ~ 0.8o C 12 warmest years in history: 2002-2012, 1998*

*

Warming is 10-20 times faster than in at least the last 800,000 years

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Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980

Precipitation is a very important component of climate - severe rainstorms have become more common

40% increase in southwest Michigan since 1948

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ex ce ex ptio tre na se me l v m ere od e m rat ild e dr ou gh

1950-1959

t

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts

ex ce ex ptio tre na se me l v m ere od e m rat ild e dr ou gh

t

1950-1959 2000-2009

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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Climate predictions are coming true in the U.S. In 2011, 10 states had their wettest spring on record

As a result, there was extensive flooding

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2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.

Much of the U.S. has been experiencing severe drought

September 2012

77% drought

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“Natural variation” cannot explain current warming What causes “natural variation”?

Recently, while Earth has been warming fastest, solar irradiance has been decreasing

Temperature

Solar  Irradiance

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In two major ways, current warming is very different than any warming period in at least the last 800,000 years 1. It’s at least 10-20 times faster 2. It’s happening while solar input is decreasing

Best estimate: ≥ 95% of current warming is due to human activities

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How have birds responded to recent climate change? 1. Changes in geographic range - latitudinal shifts, elevational shifts 2. Changes in seasonal timing (phenology) - migration, nesting

Some U.S. birds are shifting their ranges north From 1970-2000, 33% of 27 species with a southern breeding distribution shifted north - average shift of 3.9 mi/yr - but most species haven’t shifted

Great-tailed Grackle 8.0 mi/yr

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 7.5 mi/yr

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Winter ranges are also shifting north For 254 U.S. species from 1975-2005, northern range boundary shifted north by 0.84 mi/yr - but, again, most species haven’t shifted

Northern Bobwhite

Long-billed Curlew

For some species, southern range is contracting In New York state from 1980-2005, 22 northern species lost part of their southern range

Pine Siskin

Bobolink

- but southern species did not expand their northern range boundary

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Some species have shifted to higher elevations From 1975-2000, 27% of 485 Southeast Asian species expanded their ranges upward

Little Forktail

Russet Sparrow

- most did not shift their lower range margin upward

In New York, only resident species have shifted to higher elevations

Carolina Wren

Tufted Titmouse

- but mean elevational shift was only 50 feet in 25 years

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Are birds shifting their ranges fast enough? - in France from 1989-2006, bird communities shifted north by 3.3 miles/year - but climate shifted north by 10.3 miles/year

In Peru, elevational shifts among 55 bird species also appear to be lagging behind climate change

- probably constrained by rate of vegetation shifts

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Some species are showing phenological shifts (changes in timing of life events) e.g. on Cape Cod from 1970-2002, median date of migrants’ spring arrival shifted earlier for 8 of 32 passerines

- but 24 of 32 species have not shifted their arrival dates

3.6 days/dec

1.2 days

2.9 days

1.1 days

2.1 days

1.0 days

1.8 days

1.0 days

Some Canadian species are also arriving earlier Of 96 migrant species, over a 63-year period, 25 significantly advanced their spring arrival dates

20 days earlier

15 days earlier

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In Pennsylvania, from 1961-2006, local breeders shifted spring migration more than northern breeders

- but climate is changing faster for northern breeders - and northern breeders are migrating earlier in the fall

General trend: short-distance migrants are tracking climate change better than long-distance migrants

Some species are starting to lay eggs earlier e.g. Italian Black Kites are laying eggs 10 days earlier

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Species that have been tracking climate change have fared better than species that have not - e.g. 100 European species since 1990 returning earlier,  increasing

Stock Dove

returning later,  decreasing Black-throated Loon

This is also true among populations of a single species - Dutch Pied Flycatcher populations with little advance in egg laying date have declined by up to 90% - probably due to mismatched timing with major food resource (caterpillars)

- populations with much advance have declined by 25%

No change

Gain >25%

P e rc e n t o f S p e c ie s

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

27 36 9

20 20 3

Neotropical

Temperate

1

16

2

10 0

Resident

- resident species are predicted to be much less affected than short-distance and long-distance migrants

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More climate losers than climate winners predicted in all habitats except wetlands Loss >25%

No change

Gain >25%

P e rc e n t o f S p e c ie s

70

7 1 11

60 50 40 30 20

24 20 9

4 6 1

14 9 5

Forest

Grassland

Shrubland

10 0

Wetland

What will climate change mean for Michigan species?

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At least 20 common tree species are predicted to decline by 50-100% in Michigan, including:

-98% black spruce

-89% balsam fir

-97%

-89%

paper birch

aspen

-67%

-66%

sugar maple

eastern hemlock

20 southern species are predicted to arrive in Michigan

loblolly pine

sweetgum

shortleaf pine

Virginia pine

sugarberry

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As go the forests, so go the birds

50 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by 50-100%

Common loon

Evening grosbeak

White-throated sparrow

Red-breasted nuthatch

Veery

Magnolia warbler

Yellow-bellied sapsucker

Blackburnian warbler

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15 new species are predicted to arrive in Michigan

northern bobwhite

Mississippi kite

yellow-billed cuckoo

scissor-tailed flycatcher

little blue heron

painted bunting

cattle egret

summer tanager

What can I do to minimize climate change?

We can change the future by implementing multiple solutions that already are available

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Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car

20 mpg

34 mpg

30 mpg

50 mpg

Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately insulate attic, and replace single-pane windows with triple-pane windows

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Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution

50 mpg

- really just delays the inevitable

To limit warming to 2o C, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 This can only happen through aggressive expansion of alternate energy sources

Solar

Wind

Globally, we generate only 0.2% of our energy from wind, and only 0.1% from solar

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Global wind potential is >40 times worldwide use All 9 highest CO2-emitting countries could use wind alone

183x 23x

183x 30x 8x

18x

3x 3x

8x

The “intermittency problem” can be solved easily e.g. Luddington pumped storage plant

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Solar energy has even greater potential Three main technologies:

solar thermal

parabolic trough

photovoltaics

Global potential estimated at up to 100 times current use

A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world’s electricity

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A solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of US energy needs today

Again, “intermittency problem” can be solved easily

solar thermal

parabolic trough

- store excess heat during day, generate electricity at night

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Educate others

Encourage policymakers to make smarter choices

MI 6th District voters will have a clear choice

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What would Earth gain by these smarter choices?

3.5o C warming Low

Moderate

High

Probability of disappearing climate

2o C warming

Bottom Line: 1. We’re causing climate to change at an alarming rate. 2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for many bird species, especially tropical and montane species. 3. We can change our path by making smarter choices in our own lives and by electing leaders who will also make smarter choices.

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Thank you for listening

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