How to intensify animal production in a respectable way Prof. E. Decuypere 20/5/2014
CONTEXT THE CHALLENGE: TO PROVIDE FOOD, RAW MATERIALS AND ENERGY TO MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN A SUSTAINABLE WAY
- More than 800 million are chronically underfed. - The world population will increase above 9 billion in 2050 The problem is not just production (social inequality etc.) but efficient production can and will help certainly in view of land use for feed/food production
These challenges are reinforced by: + The environmental impact of our industrial society and climate change
+ The bio-based economy: competition between food, enery and raw material needs
+ Increased wealth going together with increased consumption of animal products Now: 35% of crop production used for animal feed
Goals for sustainable food security
Foley et al., (2012). Nature 478, 337–342. Solutions for a cultivated planet.
Important strategies (1) Limit the extension of agricultural land at the expense of forest, especially in tropical areas (2) Increasing food supply by reducing waste and equitable distribution and perhaps also by the diet gap (3) Increasing the efficiency of water use and nutrient use for crops production (4) Increasing total production as well as production efficiency of crops: A. Optimalization in using genetic potential of crops B. Increasing genetic potential of crops
BIOTECHNOLOGY as part of a second “green revolution”
- GMO CROPS 180
160
WHERE?
Area in milllion hectare
140 120 100 80
60 40
Total totaal Industrial countries Industrielanden Ontwikkelingslanden Developing countries
20 0
1 2 3 4 1996 1997 1998 1999
5 6 7 8 2000 2001 2002 2003
9 10 11 2004 2005 2006
12 13 14 15 2007 2008 2009 2010
16 17 2011 2012
Country
Area of crops (Mha)
Country
Area (Mha)
WHAT? Area in million hectares
90 80
Soja Soja
70
Corn Maïs
60
Cotton Katoen Rape Koolzaad
50 40 30 20 10 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
180 Area in million hectares
160 conventional
140
gmo
120
100 80 60 40
81% 35%
20 0
81% Soja
Soja
Katoen
Cotton
30% Maïs
Corn
Koolzaad
Rape
From: Livestock’s long shadow, FAO, Rome, 2006
From: Livestock’s long shadow, FAO, Rome, 2006
Demand • In 2050: 9 billion people • Changing consumption pattern
Demand • Opinion 1: population pressure contributes to hunger and poverty
• Opinion 2: population pressure does not contribute: o o
There is enough food, but unfair distribution Population growth is stimulating for development
Supply • Opinion 1: solving hunger with modern technologies o
More food without areal expansion → saving environment
• Opinion 2: no green revolution and other modern technologies o Green revolution ≠ sustainable agriculture o Increases the gap between the poor and the rich o Too much animal production
Animal production/consumption • Increasing per-capita incomes → increasing consumption of animal products • 90% of world cereal consumption is local
• Increasing demand for Feed → increasing local cereal production necessary
Animal production/consumption
Changes in agricultur in developing worlds, 1961 to 2000, showing annual changes in cropland (A), permanent pasture (B), mean crop yields for te 23 main food crops (C) and per capita and total meat production (D). Filled symbols are for developing world, open are developed.
In (D), circles are for per capita meat production, diamonds for total meat production
Consumption animal products Meat and milk consumption trends for developed and developing regions 1 Region
Per capita
Total
% World Total
Consumption, kg 1983 1997 2020
Consumption, MMT 1983 1997 2020
Consumption 1983 1997 2020
27 29 16 74 195
23 28 22 76 195
25 29 28 84 203
32 34 19 88 233
30 36 28 99 254
34 39 38 114 276
67 63 64 64 66
52 44 49 47 56
40 33 36 35 43
5 6 3 14 35
6 10 7 25 44
9 13 11 35 61
16 20 10 50 122
27 46 29 112 198
52 80 67 213 372
33 37 34 36 34
48 56 51 53 44
60 67 64 65 57
Developed countries
Beef Pork Poultry Meat Milk Developing countries Beef Pork Poultry Meat Milk
Source: Delgado (personal communication) 1 Meat is uncooked bone-in-weight, including mutton and goat as well as beef, pork and poultry. Milk is liquid milk equivalent weight, including milk products but not milk fed to calves. Million metric tons (MMT) and kg are three-year moving averages centred on year shown.
Efficiency • Increasing demand, but limited production capacity: water, fertilizer, soil, ecosystem ‘Earth’
Efficiency = ratio of numbers
Efficiency Energy inputs and outputs per unit of land area in food production - world
Efficiency Energetic efficiency %
Protein efficiency %
Dairy cows (incl. replacement stock)
12
23
Dual purpose cattle
11
20
Meat cattle
5
6
Sheep
2
3
Pigs
17
12
Broilers
10
20
Laying hens
11
18
Efficiency
Efficiency by Van Es (1975) Available Energy
Digestable Energy
X
XX
X
XX
0.22 0.17 0.24 0.26 1.2
0.29 0.23 0.40 0.28 2.4
0.32 0.30 0.21 0.31 1.4
0.43 0.40 0.34 0.33 2.7
0.21 0.7
0.41 1.3
0.44 1.3
0.94 2.7
1.2 0.4 X = food shortage XX = plenty of food
2.4 0.8
1.3 0.4
2.6 0.8
Broilers Laying hens Pigs Veal Dairy cows Meat cattle Intensive Extensive Lamb Pasture Stable
Efficiency • Ruminants, a lot of advantages : o
o o o
Conversion of unsuitable materials for humans (e.g. grass, NPN) Manure for soil improvement Grass is necessary in crop rotation Large areas worldwide are only suitable for (extensive) grazing
Sustainable animal production = livestock farming with care Principles:
Health and safety of animals and man: one health Customised care: ensuring robustness, dignity and integrity No nuisance from environmental and societal perspective Credible performance (from socio-economic perspective)
“Implementation of concrete measures is a challenge; should be in relation to the different types of animal husbandry practiced in developed and developing countries “ (from Scholten et al.; NJAS 2013)
What is “careful” livestock farming? • Ethical concept • “Layered” meaning theory of moral circles • Chance or opportunity to reach caring, sustainable farming (Nijland et al. NJAS, 2013)
Layers of increasing inclusivity of care on basis of social and temporal dimensions.
Selection limits for growth and feed efficiency? Reached because of: • Exhaustion of genetic variability quantitative nor molecular genetics give indication • Unwanted correlated responses associated with continued selection for production efficiency EXAMPLE: unidirectional selection in broiler production
Robustness Selective breeding in terms of production + traits related to health and welfare improve “robustness” Robustness = •
production potential
•
resilience to external stresses
•
physiological ability to maintain or re-establish homeostatic state or balance
From: Livestock’s long shadow, FAO, Rome, 2006
Future • Animal use and human-animal-relationship o o
o
o
Human-animal-relationship differs a lot: cultural influences and sometimes ‘inconsistent’ (e.g. tame rat vs. ‘vermin’) Artificial difference between species without fundamental biological difference (emotion, pain)
‘Agricultural animal’ or ‘useful animal’ : important for food production, but also ecologically (soil improvement) or agricultural (traction power) Next to ‘useful’ often also a cultural role (holy cow, aversion of pig meat…)
Future • Sustainable agriculture: o
o o
Increasing demand for animal products and cereals versus vulnerability and bearing capacity of ecosystem ‘Earth’ 75% of human food exists of cereals, direct or indirect Production and distribution?
→ Need for mondialisation of ethical principles with respect for socio-cultural and religious values