Hotel Intelligence Report

Market Insight Japan April 2012

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 2

Contributors Yasokazu Terada Executive Vice President [email protected] Ayako Sasaki Vice President [email protected] Aki Nakata Research Assistant [email protected]

Glossary ADR RevPAR GDP

Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Gross Domestic Product

Remarks “The total number of accommodation guests” sourced from Japan Tourism Agency does not include guests staying in hotel accommodation with less than ten employees. All statistics on 2011 sourced from Japan Tourism Agency and JNTO are provisional.

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 3

Market Summary The earthquake and tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent problems such as the radiation leakage in Fukushima and power shortage in the Greater Tokyo had a negative impact on the tourism and hotel market in Japan.

Economic Snapshot 2010 Real GDP Growth (%) Inward FDI (Net USD billion)

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

4.5

-0.7

1.4

2.1

2.8

-58.8

-118

-109.8

-82.8

-70.8

The number of international arrivals experienced a significant dip

Av. Inflation / CPI (%)

-0.7

-0.3

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

after the earthquake. In addition to the travel safety issue associated with the earthquake and subsequent radiation problem,

Short-term Interest Rate (%)

0.23

0.19

0.23

0.29

0.43

81.45

77.72

79.23

78.97

78.53

5.1

4.6

5.1

4.8

4.7

the appreciation of the Japanese yen, which continued even after these events, has rendered Japan less attractive as a tourism destination, as compared to destinations outside of Japan. Meanwhile, we have also witnessed a solid recovery in the second half of 2011. As at the date of this report, the hotel trading performance level has almost recovered to the levels seen in 2010 in most major markets, with the exception of the physically damaged areas. As the tourism and hotel market steadily recovers to levels seen in most markets during 2010, Year 2011 will also be a year of recovery from the disastrous events. Albeit the earthquake negatively impacted the hotel trading market, Japan’s hotel investment market was relatively active in the second half of 2011. As a result, hotel asset transaction volumes in 2011 reached its highest level in the last four years after the global financial crisis. In 2012, we expect that business activities as well as consumer sentiment will return to normal levels and that the hotel trading and investment markets will also be active.

Av. Exchange Rates (JPY per USD) Av. Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: Global Insight (forecast as at April 2, 2012)

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 4

Tourism / Accommodation Market Overview Japan’s tourism and accommodation market in 2011 suffered from lack of demand after the earthquake in March. While domestic

Figure 1: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan

demand towards the end of 2011 mostly recovered to levels seen in 2010, international demand has not yet fully recovered as at the date of this report. Overall Trends and Demand Drivers In Japan, the total number of accommodation guests (both domestic and international) reached approximately 326 million, which represented a 6.5% decrease compared to 2010. This decrease is attributed to fewer business activities and weakening consumer sentiment after the earthquake. By guest type, domestic accommodation accounted for

Figure 2: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan - By Month

approximately 95.0% of total guests in 2011 while inbound accommodation guests accounted for 5.0%. The total number of domestic and inbound guests decreased by 4.1% and 37.0%, respectively, as compared to the previous year. The monthly statistics, sourced from Japan Tourism Agency, indicate that the number of accommodation guests significantly dipped between March and June but recovered to the level of the previous year in the second half of 2011.

Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan (Million) 2007

2008

2009

286.7

287.5

283.0

322.8

309.7

Growth

-

0.3%

-1.5%

14.1%

-4.1%

International Guests

22.7

22.2

18.3

26.0

16.4

Growth

-

-1.8%

-17.8%

42.2%

-37.0%

309.4

309.7

301.3

348.8

326.1

-

0.1%

-2.7%

15.8%

-6.5%

Domestic Guests

Total Growth .

Source: Japan Tourism Agency

2010

2011

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 5

Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation Type (Million) Figure 3: Total Number of Domestic Accommodation Guests in Japan - By Month

2008 Limited-Service Hotel

Ratio

2009

Ratio

2010

Ratio

2011

103.1

33.3%

105.2

34.9%

130.1

37.3%

126.9

38.9%

Full-Service Hotel

61.6

19.9%

58.3

19.4%

66.3

19.0%

60.0

18.4%

Resort Hotel

56.2

18.1%

55.0

18.3%

60.3

17.3%

54.5

16.7%

Ryokan

84.7

27.3%

79.1

26.2%

82.2

23.6%

74.7

22.9%

Others

4.2

1.3%

3.7

1.2%

9.9

2.8%

9.9

3.1%

309.7

100.0%

301.3

100.0%

348.8

100.0%

326.1

100.0%

Total Growth

0.1%

-2.8%

13.6%

-7.0%

Source: Japan Tourism Agency

Figure 5: Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation Type Figure 4: Total Number of International Accommodation Guests in Japan By Month

.

By accommodation type, hotels accommodated approximately 74.0% of the total accommodation guests in 2011, while ryokans (Japanese inns) accommodated approximately 22.9% of them. Among the various accommodation types, limited-service hotels, full-service hotels and resort hotels absorbed 38.9%, 18.4%, and 16.7% of the total accommodation guests, respectively. In 2011, demand decreased across all accommodation types including hotels and ryokans.

Ratio

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 6

International Accommodation Demand Among the international accommodation guests, China (16.1% of total inbound demand) ranked as the top international demand

International Visitors Arrivals According to the latest statistics from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), international visitor arrivals were 6.2 million

source market in 2011, followed by South Korea (14.8%) and

in 2011, which was a 27.8% decrease as compared to the previous

Taiwan (14.2%).

year.

In 2011, we saw a decrease in demand for all source markets. In

While the Japanese government has implemented numerous

addition to the negative impact of the earthquake and its subsequent events, the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen even after the

activities in an effort to promote visitation after the earthquake,

earthquake has deterred international leisure tourists from visiting

international visitation has not fully recovered to the pre-earthquake level as at the date of this report.

Japan. Apart from the activities stated above, the Japanese government, having recognised that the tourism industry can stimulate economic growth and employment, has been committed to development of Figure 6: International Accommodation Guest at Japan in 2011 - By Country of Residence

the industry. The government launched “Inbound Travel Promotion Project (Visit Japan Project)” in 2010 and set a goal of 15 million visitors by 2013 and 30 million visitors in the long term. This project includes proactive promotional activities outside of Japan, deregulation of visa requirements, etc.

Figure 8: International Visitors Arrivals

Figure 7: Top 10 Source Markets in 2011 - By Country of Residence

.

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 7

Accommodation Supply Trend The profile of the Japanese accommodation market continues to evolve. The long-term trend seems to be an increase in hotel supply and a reduction in ryokan supply, which was evident in the

Figure 9: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Establishment (As at end of March)

latest data available. This trend is expected to continue over the next several years. According to the latest data from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan had 9,629 hotels with 802,060 rooms at the end of March 2011 or an average property size of 83 rooms. On the other hand, there were 46,906 ryokan establishments with 764,316 rooms at the end of March 2011. The above figures do not count some hotels and ryokans located in the prefectures of Miyagi and Fukushima, which were physically damaged by the earthquake and tsunami. Therefore, we cannot discuss the year-on-year change based on the 2011 statistics.

Figure 10: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Room Supply (As at end of March)

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 8

Hotel Investment Market Albeit the hotel trading market exhibited negative performance after March 11, the hotel investment market was relatively active in 2011 as compared to the last four years after the global financial crisis. We saw several transactions suspended after the earthquake but most of them were resumed and completed in the second half of 2011. This increase is mainly attributed to sellers’ (”lenders’’) concessions on a sales price. The results of the Japan hotel investment market in 2011 are summarized as follows:

• Continuously after the global financial crisis, many loans financed before 2007 reached maturity in 2011. While many lenders (or CMBS holders) have still taken a wait-and-see attitude, some lenders proceeded with disposition of collateral assets at a price even lower than their loan amount. Lenders’ concession on sales prices resulted in an increase of hotel transaction volume.

Figure 11: Number of Hotels Sold in Japan

• A total of 55 hotels with 7,926 rooms were publicly announced to have changed ownership in 2011. The transaction volume in 2011 exceeded the level of the past four years after the global financial crisis. In contrast with the previous trend, more than half of the transactions were completed in the second half of the year in 2011. • The average size of the hotels transacted in 2011 was 144 rooms. This figure indicates that the hotels transacted in 2011 were mainly small-sized properties. • Buyers of small-sized transactions were mostly domestic owneroperators and Asian investors. Some Asian investors, who mainly showed an interest in full-service hotels located in gateway cities, have recently broadened their investment scope to limited-service hotels in secondary cities. This trend is due to fewer investment opportunities in gateway cities. • In 2011, large-sized transactions were mostly completed by JREITs. Three J-REITs, which had substantially ceased hotel acquisition activity after the global financial crisis, successively completed five hotel transactions in 2011. • Meanwhile, the two hotel J-REITs, Nippon Hotel Fund and Japan Hotel and Resort, merged in April 2012 to become Japan Hotel REIT. After the merger, Japan Hotel REIT has become the only hotel J-REIT, which holds 28 hotel assets with asset value of approximately 130 billion yen.

Figure 12: Number of Rooms Sold in Japan

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 9

Major Lodging Transactions in 2011 (Publicly announced transactions only) Property Name

City

Prefecture

Sales Month

No. of Keys

Hotel Niseko Scot Mito Hyatt Hotel

Niseko Mito

Hokkaido Ibaraki

Jan-11 Jan-11

Hotel Hero

Obihiro

Hokkaido

Hotel Wing International Nagoya

Nagoya

Hilton Nagoya Takamatsu Tokyu inn Hotel Nikko Ibaraki Osaka Daiwa Roynet Hotel Yokohama Kannai Hotel Avanshell Akasaka

Seller Name

Buyer Name

126 56

N/A N/A

Sky Capital N/A

Feb-11

137

N/A

Aichi

Feb-11

220

Nagoya

Aichi

Feb-11

Takamatsu

Kagawa

Mar-11

Purchase Price(Million yen)

N/A N/A

Price Per Room(MIl lion yen)

N/A N/A

Legal Proceeding or No

Managed Bid or No

No No

N/A N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

N/A

Hokkaido Railway Company Taimei Housing

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

450

N/A

Ewart Investment

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

191

N/A

Taimei Housing

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

3,820

37.1

No

N/A

3,250

15.3

No

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

3,746

14.5

No

N/A

2,334

7.9

No

N/A

4,059

26

No

N/A

N/A

N/A

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Ibaraki

Osaka

Mar-11

103

Merchant Bankers

Yokohama

Kanagawa

Mar-11

212

Daiwa House Industry

MID Urban Development Daiwa Odakyu Construction

Akasaka

Tokyo

Mar-11

71

Lone Star

Mitsubishi Estate

Hotel Ascent Shinjuku

Shinjuku

Tokyo

Mar-11

63

Leopalace 21

Comfort Hotel Tokyo Higashi Nihombashi

Nihombashi

Tokyo

Apr-11

259

Maya Investmet

Dormy inn Kumamoto

Kumamoto

Kumamoto

Apr-11

294

Kyoritsu Maintenance

Setsugetsuka

Hakone

Kanagawa

Apr-11

158

Ginsenkaku

Kamikawa

Hokkaido

Apr-11

36

Loisir Hotel Atsugi Hotel Precede Nagoya

Atsugi

Kanagawa

Apr-11

163

Lone Star

Daiwa House Industry Nippon Hotel Fund Investment Corporation Nippon Hotel Fund Investment Corporation Japan Hotel and Resort Inc Breezbay Hotel Group Japan New Alpha

Nagoya

Aichi

Apr-11

140

Taisei Corporation

Kachikaihatsu

Hotel Nikko Chitose

Chitose

Hokkaido

May-11

256

Goldman Sachs

Prince Hotel Takamatsu

Chikusei

Ibaraki

May-11

87

JAL City Matsuyama

Matsuyama

Ehime

Apr-11

Numazu Tokyu Hotel

Numazu

Shizuoka

Jun-11

Kyoritsu Maintenance N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

N/A

Breezbay Hotel Group Sakura Fudosan

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

161

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

136

N/A

Kuretakesou

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

N/A

N/A

Yes

N/A

Kikkatei

Saga

Saga

Jun-11

38

Kikkatei

Fukuoka Capital Partners

Hotel Esashiya

Numazu

Shizuoka

Jun-11

22

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Art Hotels Hamamatsucho

Hamamatsu cho

Tokyo

Jun-11

120

Citi Group

Fortress Investment Group

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Art Hotels Omori

Omori

Tokyo

Jun-11

220

Citi Group

Fortress Investment Group

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Hakusatei

Hamamat su

Shizuoka

Jul-11

114

N/A

Kuretakesou

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Kyoto Century Hotel

Kyoto

Kyoto

Jul-11

218

Hayashibara Group

Keihan Electric Railway

N/A

N/A

Yes

N/A

Ofu Hotel Kamata

Ota

Tokyo

Jul-11

92

Araikumi

Aoki

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Moriguchi Royal Pines Hotel

Moriguchi

Osaka

Jul-11

175

Aetos

Tokaikanko

990

6

No

N/A

Rantei

Kyoto

Kyoto

Jul-11

20

Hayashibara Group

Keihan Electric Railway

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

ANA Hotel Kushiro

Kushiro

Hokkaido

Aug-11

180

Goldman Sachs

GHS

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Hyuga Heights

Hyuga

Miyazaki

Aug-11

27

Toko

Hyuga City

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Hotel Sunroute Shirakawa

Saigo

Fukushima

Aug-11

163

Hotelo Sunroute Shirakawa

N/A

N/A

N/A

Yes

N/A

(Continue to next page)

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 10

Purchase Price(Million yen)

Price Per Room(Mil lion yen)

Mitsubishi Corporation

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Secured Capital Japan

Keck Seng Investments

1,757

10

No

N/A

143

Tateshina Grand Hotel

ORIX Real Estate Corporation

N/A

N/A

Yes

N/A

Sep-11

304

Risa Partners

United Urban Investment Corporation

7,650

25

No

N/A

Hokkaido

Sep-11

203

Karakami Kankou

Tsuruga Group

220

1

No

N/A

Kawasaki

Kanagawa

Sep-11

70

Karakami Kankou

Sumitomo Realty & Development

1,100

16

No

N/A

Kobe

Hyogo

Oct-11

235

N/A

Hotel Management International

5,000

21

No

N/A

Sapporo

Hokkaido

Oct-11

55

Dear Life

Live Max

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Akasaka

Tokyo

Nov-11

136

Lone Star

Sotetsu Holdings

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Naruko Hotel

Osaki

Miyagi

Nov-11

129

Orix Real Estate

Naruko Hotel Operations

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Athena Awaji

Awaji

Hyogo

Nov-11

59

N/A

Sumoto Kanko Group

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Kobe Bay Sheraton Hotel & Towers

Kobe

Hyogo

Dec-11

276

Lone Star

Hotel New Awaji

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Rantei

Kyoto

Kyoto

Dec-11

20

Keihan Electric Railway

Mori Trust

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Asakusa Vista Hotel

Taito

Tokyo

Dec-11

136

Galileo Japan Trust

Tokaikanko

1,050

8

No

N/A

Hotel Plaza Kobe

Kobe

Hyogo

Dec-11

145

Taisei Corporation

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Secured Capital Japan

Japan New Alpha

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Tokyu Land Corporation

N/A

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Sales Month

Property Name

City

Prefecture

Hotel Monterey Sanno

Ota

Tokyo

Aug-11

Best Western Hotel Fino Osaka Shinsaibashi

Higashi Shinsaiba shi

Osaka

Tateshina Grand Hotel Takinoyu

Chino

Hotel JAL City Naha

No. of Keys

Seller Name

Buyer Name

166

Sanno Estate

Sep-11

179

Nagano

Sep-11

Naha

Okinawa

Hotel Emerald

Kushiro

Kawasaki Grand Hotel New Otani Kobe Harborland Hotel Sincerit Sapporo Chisun Grand Akasaka

Legal Proceeding or No

Managed Bid or No

Oita Toyo Hotel

Oita

Oita

Dec-11

144

Niseko Kogen Hotel

Niseko

Hokkaido

Dec-11

59

JAL City Yotsuya

Shinjuku

Tokyo

Dec-11

185

Tokyo Tatemono

4,200

23

No

N/A

Miyoshiya Grand Hotel Matsuyama Washington Hotel Plaza Kobe Seishin Oriental Hotel

United Urban Investment Corporation

Shin Onsen Cho

Hyogo

Dec-11

50

Miyoshiya Ryokan

Yukai Resort

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Matsuyama

Ehime

Dec-11

190

N/A

IPC Corporation

910

5

No

N/A

Kobe

Hyogo

Dec-11

184

J-Will Partners

Takagawa Group

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Hotel Avanshell Kyoto

Kyoto

Kyoto

Dec-11

150

Lone Star

Taimei Housing

N/A

N/A

No

N/A

Source : Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels based on publicly available information

Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 11

Disclaimer This report is confidential to the recipient of the report. No reference to the report or any part of it may be published in any document, statement or circular or in any communication with third parties without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, including specifically in relation to the form and context in which it will appear. We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which at best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather than absolute certainties. The process of making forward projections involves assumptions in respect of a considerable number of variables which are acutely sensitive to changing conditions, variations in any one of which may significantly affect the outcome and we draw your attention to this factor. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels makes no representation, warranty, assurance or guarantee with respect to any material with which this report may be issued and this report should not be taken as an endorsement of or recommendation on any participation by any intending investor or any other party in any transaction whatsoever. This report has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. Users should not rely on this report and must make their own enquiries to verify and satisfy themselves of all aspects of information set out in the report. We have used and relied upon information from sources generally regarded as authoritative and reputable, but the information obtained from these sources may not have been independently verified by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels. Whilst the material contained in the report has been prepared in good faith and with due care, no representation or warranty is made in relation to the accuracy, currency, completeness, suitability or otherwise of the whole or any part of the report. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, its officers, employees, subcontractors and agents shall not be liable (to the extent permitted by law) to any person for any loss, liability, damage or expense (“liability”) arising directly or indirectly from or connected in any way with any use of or reliance on this report. If any liability is established, notwithstanding this exclusion, it shall not exceed $1,000.

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