Home Price Index Report MAY 2015
“Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans remained below 4 percent through May, helping to fuel homepurchase activity. Our homes-for-sale listing data shows that markets with high demand and limited supply, such as San Francisco, are recording double-digit appreciation rates over the past year.” Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic
2
Home Price Index – National Overview ►►
CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 6.3 Percent Year Over Year in May
►►
CoreLogic HPI Forecast Projects Increase of 0.9 Percent Month Over Month in June
►►
National Home Prices Are Expected to Rise by 5.1 Percent from May 2015 to May 2016
6.3%
1.7%
8.4%
in May 2015
May from April 2015
below April 2006 peak
Home prices, including distressed
On a month-over-month basis, home
Home prices nationwide remain
sales, increased 6.3 percent in
prices increased by 1.7 percent
8.4 percent below their peak,
May 2015 compared to May 2014.
in May compared to April* data.
which was set in April 2006.
April marks the 39th consecutive
Excluding distressed sales, home
month of year-over-year home
prices were up 1.4 percent month
price gains.
over month in May 2015.
Home prices, excluding distressed sales, were still 4.7 percent below the peak. Distressed sales are
Excluding distressed sales, home
composed of short sales and real
prices increased by 6.3 percent year
estate owned (REO) transactions.
over year in May.
* April data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
© 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
MAY 2015
3
Short-Term Projections
0.9%
0.8%
Increase in home prices including distressed sales
Increase in home prices excluding distressed sales
The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ indicates
Excluding distressed sales, home prices
that home prices, including distressed
are expected to increase 0.8 percent
sales, are projected to increase 0.9 percent
month over month from May 2015 to
month over month from May 2015 to
June 2015 and increase by 4.7 percent
June 2015 and increase by 5.1 percent
(+/− 2.0 percent)** year over year from
(+/− 2.0 percent) May 2015 to May 2016.
May 2015 to May 2016.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are a monthly forecast built on the CoreLogic HPI™ and other economic variables.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval.
4
“The rate of home price appreciation ticked up in May with gains being fairly widely distributed across the country. Importantly, higher home prices over the past couple of years have spurred increases in new single-family construction. Sales of newly built homes during the first five months of 2015 were up 23 percent from a year ago, and as rising values build equity for homeowners, we expect to see more existing homes offered for sale in the coming year.” Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic
5
Jan-2002 May-2002 Sep-2002 Jan-2003 May-2003 Sep-2003 Jan-2004 May-2004 Sep-2004 Jan-2005 May-2005 Sep-2005 Jan-2006 May-2006 Sep-2006 Jan-2007 May-2007 Sep-2007 Jan-2008 May-2008 Sep-2008 Jan-2009 May-2009 Sep-2009 Jan-2010 May-2010 Sep-2010 Jan-2011 May-2011 Sep-2011 Jan-2012 May-2012 Sep-2012 Jan-2013 May-2013 Sep-2013 Jan-2014 May-2014 Sep-2014 Jan-2015 May-2015
6.2 w
Percentage Change in Home Prices Year Over Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Including Distressed Sales
Excluding Distressed Sales Including Distressed Sales
Source: CoreLogic May 2015
Excluding Distressed Sales
6
National Snapshot HPI peak-to-current change including distressed sales*** -4.1% -1.8%
-2.9%
-0.3%
0.0%
-3.7%
-9.2% -14.0%
-8.8%
-1.6%
0.0%
-16.4%
-0.3% 0.0%
-32.9% -6.5% -10.2%
-19.7%
-26.0%
-3.2%
-9.4%
-8.9%
-16.7% -23.1% 0.0%
-13.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-16.9%
-21.4%
-7.6%
0.0% -3.8%
-27.5% -23.1%
-5.9%
0.0%
-12.9%
-14.5%
0.0%
-1.4% -10.4%
-4.9%
-7.9%
-2.6%
0.0% 0.0%
-28.8% -0.5%
0.0%
-32.9% Source: CoreLogic HPI®, single-family combined series, as of May 2015
HPI peak-to-current change excluding distressed sales*** -1.6% 0.0%
-4.3%
-1.0%
-2.7%
-2.0%
-7.8% -13.3%
-4.9%
-2.2%
0.0%
-9.7%
0.0% 0.0%
-33.7% -5.2% -9.2%
-12.9%
-24.6%
-1.2%
-13.8%
-14.5%
-5.6%
0.0%
-10.5%
0.0%
-12.8% -16.9% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0% -0.2%
0.0% -7.9%
0.0%
-17.1%
-3.6%
0.0% -1.2%
-24.6% -16.3%
-1.7%
0.0%
-10.3%
-9.4%
-2.6%
-2.2%
-3.4%
0.0% -23.3% -0.9%
-33.7%
0.0%
Source: CoreLogic HPI, single-family combined excluding distressed sales series, as of May 2015 *** 0.0% indicates that state is at a new HPI peak. © 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
MAY 2015
7
State highlights
7.9%
8.5%
8.9%
9.2%
9.6% 8.3%
8.7%
8.8%
Five states remaining furthest from peak values in May
NV FL
HPI state highlights may 2015
AZ MD
Excluding distressed
sales, five states
sales, five states
registering largest year-
registering largest year-
over-year home price
over-year home price
appreciation in May
appreciation in May
-23.1%
Including distressed
-26.0%
SC CO FL WA OR
-32.9%
Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 39 consecutive months of yearover-year increases; however, the national increase is no longer posting double-digits.
SC CO WA FL NV
-28.8%
THIRTY-NINE
RI
-27.5%
States and the District of Columbia reached new highs in the Home Price Index: Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and the District of Columbia.
9.8%
10
10.3%
Including distressed sales, five states showed negative home price appreciation: Massachusetts (−4.8 percent), Connecticut (−1.8 percent), Maryland (−1.5 percent), Mississippi (−1.4 percent), Louisiana (−0.8 percent).
8
Metropolitan Area Highlights SINGLE FAMILY (INCLUDING DISTRESSED)
SINGLE FAMILY (EXCLUDING DISTRESSED)
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
10.5%
10.1%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
8.0%
7.6%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
7.4%
7.1%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
6.6%
5.1%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
5.3%
4.9%
METROPOLITAN AREA
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NYNJ
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MNWI
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DCVA-MD-WV
5.0%
5.5%
4.8%
5.0%
4.5%
4.5%
3.8%
5.3%
1.2%
1.2%
Source: CoreLogic
© 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
92 of the Top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in May 2015 The eight CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: BaltimoreColumbia-Towson, MD (−1.8 percent); Boston, MA (−4.8 percent); BridgeportStamford-Norwalk, CT (−0.32 percent); CambridgeNewton-Framingham, MA (−2.9 percent); Camden, NJ (−0.96 percent); New Orleans-Metairie, LA (−6.4 percent); Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD (−0.31 percent) and Worcester, MA-CT (−6.6 percent).
MAY 2015
9
State-Level Detail Single-Family Including Distressed
12-MONTH HPI CHANGE
3-MONTH
1-MONTH
PEAK-TOCURRENT HPI CHANGE
PEAK DATE
Nevada
8.3%
4.0%
1.6%
-32.9%
MAR-2006
Florida
8.7%
5.7%
1.9%
-28.8%
OCT-2006
Rhode Island
2.57%
3.2%
2.2%
-27.5%
OCT-2005
Arizona
5.36%
3.7%
1.2%
-26.0%
JUN-2006
Maryland
-1.5%
1.1%
0.1%
-23.1%
NOV-2006
Connecticut
-1.8%
3.0%
2.3%
-23.1%
JUL-2006
New Jersey
2.76%
1.4%
0.8%
-21.4%
JUN-2006
Illinois
2.80%
5.4%
2.0%
-19.7%
NOV-2006
New Mexico
2.19%
3.3%
0.3%
-16.9%
JUN-2007
Delaware
0.78%
2.6%
1.4%
-16.7%
JUN-2007
Michigan
5.22%
2.9%
1.1%
-16.4%
NOV-2005
Massachusetts
-4.8%
-3.4%
-1.7%
-14.5%
OCT-2005
Idaho
4.73%
4.5%
1.3%
-14.0%
JUL-2007
Virginia
0.69%
2.5%
0.9%
-13.0%
MAY-2006
New Hampshire
4.92%
4.0%
1.2%
-12.9%
MAY-2006
Mississippi
-1.4%
-3.2%
-1.7%
-10.4%
NOV-2006
California
6.4%
4.5%
0.5%
-10.2%
MAY-2006
West Virginia
1.19%
1.2%
-1.9%
-9.4%
SEP-2005
Minnesota
4.36%
4.0%
1.8%
-9.2%
APR-2006
Missouri
3.52%
4.3%
0.9%
-8.9%
SEP-2006
Wisconsin
4.33%
4.8%
1.8%
-8.8%
NOV-2006
Alabama
4.47%
6.2%
2.8%
-7.9%
AUG-2007
Ohio
2.80%
4.6%
1.7%
-7.6%
OCT-2005
Utah
6.4%
4.1%
1.5%
-6.5%
JUN-2007
Pennsylvania
3.28%
4.8%
2.3%
-5.9%
SEP-2006
Georgia
5.94%
4.9%
1.6%
-4.9%
DEC-2006
STATE
National HPI 12-mo. change: 6.3% 3-mo. change:
5.2%
1-mo. change:
1.7%
PC* change: −8.4% Peak date: *Peak-to-Current
April 2006
continued on page 11
10
State-Level Detail Single-Family Including Distressed (continued)
12-MONTH HPI CHANGE
3-MONTH
1-MONTH
PEAK-TOCURRENT HPI CHANGE
PEAK DATE
Washington
8.8%
7.6%
2.2%
-4.1%
JUL-2007
Kansas
4.81%
3.0%
1.3%
-3.8%
AUG-2007
Oregon
7.7%
5.3%
1.9%
-3.7%
JUL-2007
Indiana
4.31%
4.2%
1.9%
-3.2%
JUL-2007
Maine
1.23%
1.3%
-0.5%
-2.9%
JUL-2006
Louisiana
-0.8%
-1.7%
0.5%
-2.6%
DEC-2014
Montana
5.65%
2.7%
0.8%
-1.8%
AUG-2007
South Dakota
1.11%
2.4%
1.6%
-1.6%
AUG-2014
South Carolina
10.3%
5.5%
1.3%
-1.4%
APR-2007
Hawaii
5.80%
0.2%
0.7%
-0.5%
JAN-2015
Wyoming
3.24%
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.3%
FEB-2015
North Dakota
5.72%
-0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
FEB-2015
Arkansas
4.42%
2.0%
0.1%
0.0%
JUL-2007
Kentucky
3.36%
3.3%
1.9%
0.0%
AUG-2006
Colorado
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Texas
7.7%
3.6%
1.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
New York
5.64%
3.3%
2.6%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Tennessee
6.05%
5.5%
1.6%
0.0%
MAY-2015
District of Columbia
5.36%
4.4%
2.2%
0.0%
MAY-2015
North Carolina
5.08%
4.4%
1.4%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Alaska
3.71%
2.3%
1.0%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Oklahoma
3.77%
1.8%
0.9%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Iowa
3.18%
3.4%
1.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Nebraska
2.62%
3.1%
1.2%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Vermont
5.67%
5.7%
1.1%
0.0%
MAY-2015
STATE
National HPI 12-mo. change: 6.3% 3-mo. change:
5.2%
1-mo. change:
1.7%
PC* change: −8.4% Peak date:
April 2006
*Peak-to-Current
Source: CoreLogic May 2015
© 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
MAY 2015
11
State-Level Detail Single-Family Excluding Distressed
12-MONTH HPI CHANGE
3-MONTH
1-MONTH
PEAK-TOCURRENT HPI CHANGE
PEAK DATE
Nevada
7.8%
4.0%
1.8%
-33.7%
MAY-2006
Florida
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
-23.3%
MAY-2006
Rhode Island
2.7%
3.2%
2.5%
-24.6%
OCT-2005
Arizona
5.1%
3.3%
1.2%
-24.6%
JUL-2006
Maryland
1.6%
2.2%
0.1%
-16.9%
JUL-2006
Connecticut
0.9%
3.4%
2.3%
-16.3%
JUL-2006
New Jersey
3.3%
1.3%
0.5%
-17.1%
JUN-2006
Illinois
4.1%
4.2%
1.2%
-12.9%
OCT-2006
New Mexico
2.1%
3.2%
0.6%
-13.8%
APR-2007
Delaware
3.3%
2.4%
1.9%
-12.8%
JUL-2007
Michigan
5.0%
4.2%
1.5%
-9.7%
OCT-2005
Massachusetts
-2.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
-9.4%
OCT-2005
Idaho
4.9%
4.3%
1.7%
-13.3%
JUL-2007
Virginia
0.9%
2.0%
0.6%
-10.5%
MAY-2006
New Hampshire
4.4%
2.6%
0.9%
-10.3%
SEP-2005
Mississippi
2.0%
-0.3%
-1.2%
-7.9%
SEP-2007
California
6.3%
4.4%
0.3%
-9.2%
MAY-2006
West Virginia
0.2%
1.2%
-1.1%
-14.5%
SEP-2005
Minnesota
4.3%
3.5%
1.7%
-7.8%
JUN-2006
Missouri
3.0%
2.6%
0.5%
-5.6%
JUL-2007
Wisconsin
4.4%
4.3%
1.4%
-4.9%
OCT-2006
Alabama
4.8%
4.3%
2.3%
-2.6%
JUL-2007
Ohio
3.7%
2.8%
1.3%
-3.6%
JUL-2006
Utah
6.5%
3.7%
1.4%
-5.2%
JUL-2007
Pennsylvania
3.8%
3.6%
1.6%
-1.7%
SEP-2007
Georgia
4.9%
4.0%
1.3%
-2.2%
AUG-2007
STATE
National HPI 12-mo. change: 6.3% 3-mo. change:
4.5%
1-mo. change:
1.4%
PC* change: −4.7% Peak date: *Peak-to-Current
April 2006
continued on page 13
12
State-Level Detail Single-Family Excluding Distressed (continued)
12-MONTH HPI CHANGE
3-MONTH
1-MONTH
PEAK-TOCURRENT HPI CHANGE
PEAK DATE
Washington
8.5%
6.4%
1.8%
-1.6%
JUL-2007
Kansas
5.4%
2.9%
1.4%
-1.2%
AUG-2007
Oregon
7.9%
4.5%
1.7%
-2.0%
JUL-2007
Indiana
4.1%
3.6%
1.5%
-1.2%
JUL-2007
Maine
1.6%
1.7%
1.4%
-4.3%
JUL-2006
Louisiana
-0.2%
-3.3%
-0.3%
-3.4%
JAN-2015
Montana
7.6%
3.6%
0.7%
0.0%
AUG-2007
South Dakota
0.6%
1.4%
1.4%
-2.2%
AUG-2014
South Carolina
9.6%
4.5%
1.2%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Hawaii
4.8%
-0.9%
0.5%
-0.9%
FEB-2015
Wyoming
2.9%
1.0%
1.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
North Dakota
5.0%
-1.0%
-0.6%
-1.0%
FEB-2015
Arkansas
4.6%
1.7%
-0.2%
-0.2%
APR-2015
Kentucky
3.5%
2.9%
1.5%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Colorado
9.2%
5.0%
1.7%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Texas
7.5%
3.8%
1.2%
0.0%
MAY-2015
New York
6.4%
3.7%
2.6%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Tennessee
6.2%
4.9%
1.4%
0.0%
MAY-2015
District of Columbia
5.1%
4.2%
2.1%
0.0%
MAY-2015
North Carolina
5.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Alaska
3.4%
2.3%
1.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Oklahoma
3.2%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Iowa
2.7%
2.2%
0.6%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Nebraska
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.0%
MAY-2015
Vermont
1.2%
0.2%
-0.1%
-2.7%
JUN-2007
STATE
National HPI 12-mo. change: 6.3% 3-mo. change:
4.5%
1-mo. change:
1.4%
PC* change: −4.7% Peak date:
April 2006
*Peak-to-Current
Source: CoreLogic May 2015
© 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
MAY 2015
13
MORE INSIGHTS The CoreLogic Insights Blog (www.corelogic.com/blog) provides an expanded perspective on housing economies and property markets, including policy, trends, regulation and compliance. Please visit the blog for timely analysis, thought-provoking data visualizations and unique commentary from our team in the Office of the Chief Economist.
CoreLogic
CoreLogic Econ
HPI Methodology The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multitier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales.
7,311 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 658 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,293 counties (86 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. ABOUT CORELOGIC CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com. CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CORELOGIC HPI and CORELOGIC HPI FORECASTS are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. CONTACT For more information, please email
[email protected].
14
© 2015 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.
MAY 2015
15
For an expanded perspective on housing economies and property markets, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog and follow us on: CoreLogic
CoreLogic Econ
corelogic.com © 201 5 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CORELOGIC HPI and CORELOGIC HPI FORECASTS are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders. 17-HPI-MAY15-0516-01
