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Henderson Horizon Pan European Alpha Fund June 2014
Richard Brown Investment Specialist Léopold Arminjon Portfolio Manager John Bennett Portfolio Manager
Why long short equity?
Asset allocation is like judging a beauty contest… …with a poor line up of contestants
Bonds Expensive Interest rates
Cash No return Currency wars
Equities Volatile cheap?
2
Apr-14
Sep-13
Feb-13
Jul-12
Dec-11
May-11
Oct-10
Mar-10
Aug-09
Jan-09
Jun-08
Nov-07
Apr-07
Sep-06
Feb-06
Jul-05
Dec-04
May-04
Oct-03
Mar-03
Aug-02
Jan-02
Jun-01
Nov-00
Apr-00
Sep-99
Feb-99
Jul-98
Dec-97
May-97
600
Oct-96
700
Mar-96
Aug-95
Jan-95
Why are investors nervous about long short equity?
Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Henderson Global Investors, Datastream, as at 30 April 2014
3
Approaches to long short equity
Fixed high beta •
130/30 style
Directional •
Active beta management
Market neutral •
Balance longs and shorts
•
No beta
4
Our approach
Overview
Objective • Steady capital appreciation with minimal volatility Strategy • Stock picking: Highest conviction best ideas, both long-term and opportunistic • Focus on liquid large and mid cap companies in European markets • Risk management – Active beta management
6
Risk/Return is our focus
Cumulative performance YTD
1 year
Since fund manager change (31 December 2012)
Henderson Horizon Pan Eurp Alpha A2 share class
5.0
14.2
26.3
MSCI Europe TR
7.1
17.6
29.0
YTD
1 year
Since fund manager change (31 December 2012)
5.1
5.1
5.4
11.2
11.5
11.6
Volatility (daily basis)
Henderson Horizon Pan Eurp Alpha A2 share class MSCI Europe TR
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 30 May 2014 Data for the Henderson Horizon Pan Eurp Alpha A2 share class Performance: Net of fees, in Euros Past performance is not a guide to future performance
7
Investment approach Seeking longs and shorts Structural change Cyclicality Opportunistic
Idea sources Sell side brokers Company meetings Henderson Equity Teams
Sizing Conviction Liquidity Upside to target Downside risk
Portfolio construction Does the portfolio fit my view of the world? Gross exposure Net exposure Balance of the books
8
Portfolio construction – 3 books
Defensives book • Long and short stocks • Driven by bond yields
Total portfolio Cyclicals book • Long and short stocks • Driven by emerging market growth
• • • •
50 – 80 stocks Typically 2-5% position size Every line is a profit centre Net exposure managed with Index futures
Financials book • Long and short stocks • Driven by central banks
9
Example positioning – 5 November 2013
Number of positions
Exposure (%)
Long defensives
17
34.7
Short defensives
8
-11.6
Long cyclicals
18
22.6
Short cyclicals
10
-11.4
Long financials
10
13.0
Short financials
2
-2.0
Short index futures
3
-15.9
Total portfolio
68
Gross exposure (%)
Net exposure (%)
46.3
+23.1
34.0
+11.2
15.0
+11.0
15.9
-15.9
111.2
+29.4
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 5 November 2013
10
A structured portfolio
50
Defensives Cyclicals Financials Futures
Net market exposure %
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
-40
Source: Henderson Global Investors, Bloomberg, as at 26 May 2014 Strategy exposures, 30 day moving average
11
Risk management
• Rolling Stop loss of 20% • Permanent Control of market exposure, and nature of exposure (defensive, cyclical, financial)
Typical exposures Gross exposure*
50% to 150%
Net exposure
-5 to +50%
Position size
2% to 5%
Number of positions
50 to 80
• Liquidity – Portfolio can be liquidated quickly Rigid limits
• Risk oversight
Maximum gross exposure*
200%
• Independent risk team and CRO Net exposure Position size
-75% to +75% 10%
*When calculating total gross exposure, the Fund’s option exposure will be calculated by multiplying the notional amount of its options by the delta (in percentage terms)for such options
12
Our aim is to avoid deep drawdowns
Underwater chart Largest drawdown – MSCI Europe
102.0 100.0
Starting point
98.0
Draw down
Recovery period
-11.7%
11 weeks
96.0 May ‘13
94.0 92.0 90.0
Largest drawdown – Fund
88.0 86.0 Horizon Pan European Alpha Fund Starting point
84.0
Draw down
Recovery period
-2.7%
3 weeks
MSCI Europe May-14
Mar-14 Apr-14
Jan-14 Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13 Nov-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13 Jun-13
Mar-13 Apr-13
Jan-13 Feb-13
Dec-12
82.0 May ‘13
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 31 May 2014 Each time the fund makes new highs it is capped at 100 Weekly data
13
Smooth return profile
Performance since fund manager change % 130 Horizon Pan European Alpha Fund MSCI Europe
125 120 115 110 105
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Feb 14
Jan 14
Dec 13
Nov 13
Oct 13
Sep 13
Aug 13
Jul 13
Jun 13
May 13
Apr 13
Mar 13
Feb 13
Jan 13
100
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 30 May 2014 Basis: Index is the MSCI Europe Total Return Index. Net fund returns in Euros, A share class, mid-mid. Henderson Horizon Pan European Alpha Fund
14
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Active management of gross and net exposure
Gross and net exposure 170% Gross exposure Net exposure 170%
150% 150%
130% 130%
110% 110%
90% 90%
70% 70%
50% 50%
30% 30%
10% 10%
-10% -10%
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 4 June 2014 Basis: Strategy exposures, 5 day moving average
15
Markets YTD and current positioning
Market returns
Global market returns (%) 35.0
32.4
30.0
28.2
25.5
25.0
24.6 20.4
20.0
20.0
2013 2014 YTD
15.8 12.3
15.0 10.0
4.2
7.1
4.4
5.0
5.7
4.5 1.5
0.0 -2.2 ASE
IBEX
MIB
DAX
MSCI Europe
MSCI Emerging
S&P 500
-2.3
German Bunds
-5.0
Source: Bloomberg, Henderson Global Investors, as at 28 May 2014 Note: Returns are in local currency, total return
17
Sector returns
European sector returns (%) 40
2013
1st Jan to 10 March 2014
10 March to 28 May 2014
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Materials
Energy
Consumer Staples
Utilities
Financials
Industrials
Health Care
IT
Consumer Discretionary
Telecoms
-5
Source: Bloomberg, Henderson Global Investors, as at 28 May 2014 Note: Returns are in local currency, total return, MSCI Europe sector returns
18
YTD activity
Net market exposure 31 December 2013
4 June 2014
Change
Index futures
-2.1
-21.9
-19.8
Financials
11.2
4.9
-6.3
Telecommunication Services
4.9
-0.2
-5.1
Health Care
8.5
6.8
-1.6
Industrials
2.2
0.6
-1.6
Consumer Discretionary
7.7
7.0
-0.6
Information Technology
6.7
6.2
-0.4
-0.5
1.9
+2.5
Energy
0.4
6.2
+5.8
Utilities
-1.5
4.4
+6.0
Materials
-5.0
1.5
+6.5
Consumer Staples
Source: Henderson Global Investors,
19
Current positioning
Top 10 long positions Name
Sector
Portfolio weight
ENI
Energy
3.0
SAP
IT
2.5
Astrazeneca
Health Care
2.0
Roche
Health Care
2.0
Fresenius SE
Health Care
2.0
Zurich Insurance Group
Financials
2.0
Publicis
Consumer Disc.
2.0
Total
Energy
1.9
RWE
Utilities
1.8
Renault
Consumer Disc.
1.7
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 4 June 2014
20
Appendices
Henderson Global Investors Overview •
Global fund manager with expertise in diverse asset classes
•
Total AUM: €95.8bn • • • •
•
Significant resources • •
•
Fixed Income: €23.4bn Direct Property: €16.3bn Equities: €54.9bn Private Capital: €1.2bn
Luxembourg UK (London/ Edinburgh) The Netherlands Ireland
Germany France
USA (Chicago/ Hartford)
Switzerland Spain
Italy
852* staff worldwide 19 offices worldwide
Independent public company – solely focused on investment management •
India China Hong Kong
Traditional and alternative offerings within a high quality support platform
Japan
Singapore
Australia
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 31 March 2014 Note: Private Equity funds’ closing AUM is based on 30 September 2013 valuations * As at 1 April 2014. Please note that Henderson’s property staff transferred to the new TH Real Estate venture on 1 April 2014
22
The Fund Managers
• Léopold Arminjon joined Henderson from Gartmore in 2011 • Worked on European long/short portfolios since 2007 Léopold Arminjon Fund Manager
• Previously worked on the sell-side for 8 years • Strategy assets of over €1.0bn • Works with a wider European equity team managing over €16bn
John Bennett Fund Manager Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 30 May 2014
23
A good market for stock picking
Correlation points to the return of a stockpickers’ market… 0.80
… implying better potential equity alpha returns 20%
European stock correlation
y = -0.2478x + 0.1673 R² = 0.3526
1 year moving average HFRI Equity Market Neutral Hedge Fund total return (y/y)
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
0.20 -10% 0.10
0.0 95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch European Investment Strategy, Datastream as at 2 January 2014
13
0.2
0.4 0.6 0.8 European Stock correlation
1.0
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch European Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, Datastream, as at 2 January 2014
24
Stock example - Grifols
Grifols 150000
350
Position (Number of units) Share price (RHS)
300
100000 250 50000
200
0
150 100
-50000 50 -100000 Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Feb-12 Mar-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
0
Source: Datstream, Henderson Global Investors, as at 20 January 2014 Basis: Data for the investment strategy
25
Stock example – Airbus
Airbus 40,000
60.0
Position (No. of Units) Share price (RHS)
35,000
50.0
30,000 25,000
40.0
20,000 15,000
30.0
10,000 20.0
5,000 0
10.0
-5,000 Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
0.0 Jan-12
-10,000
Source: Henderson Global Investors, Datstream, as at 20 January 2014 Basis: Data for the investment strategy
26
Sector attribution
Sector contribution bps 600
Utilities Telecoms
400
Materials IT
200
Industrials 0
Index Health Care
-200
Financials Energy
-400
Consumer Stap. -600 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Consumer Disc.
Source: Henderson Global Investors, as at 31 March 2013 Basis: Desk estimates Basis, Data for the investment strategy
27
Risk management – example liquidity
Market Cap
Gross exposure (%)
>€20bn
40.5
€5bn to €20bn
32.3
€1bn to €5bn
13.0