Copyright 2014 Louisiana

February 17 - 24, 2014 HAI3227

404 Interviews Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Hello, my name is __________ from HAI, a national research firm. [IF LANDLINE] We're conducting a survey in Louisiana to get people's opinions on important issues. This number was selected at random and according to the research procedure, I would like to speak to the [ALTERNATE: YOUNGEST/OLDEST] [ALTERNATE: MAN/WOMAN] at this

address who is registered to vote. [IF CELL PHONE] We're conducting a survey of cell phone users in Louisiana to get people's opinions on important issues.

Since you are on a cell phone, I can call you back if you are driving or doing anything else that requires your full attention. Can you talk safely and privately now? [IF YES, CONTINUE. IF NO, SCHEDULE CALLBACK]

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS QB. Are you officially registered to vote in that parish? [IF YES]

Regardless of what you think of the candidates and how you might feel about the parties, on the official registration lists, at the present time are you officially registered as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or in some other way?

YES: Democrat ................................ 47% YES: Republican ................................ 28 YES: Independent ................................ 19 YES: Other ................................ 5 No/(Don’t know) --------> TERMINATE

QC. In November, elections will be held for U.S. Senate, Congress, and other offices.

Definitely vote ................................83% Probably vote ................................17 All other responses----> TERMINATE

But there is no election for President. Although it is a while away, how likely are you to vote in that election: will you definitely vote; probably but not certainly vote in it; are the chances about 50-50 that you will vote, or is it likely that you will not vote in November? Q1. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, an

Independent or a Republican? ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN

Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?

VOL: VOL:

Strong Democrat ................................ 25% Weak Democrat ................................ 9 Independent ................................ 26 Weak Republican ................................ 8 Strong Republican ................................ 23 (Green Party) ................................ (Other/Don't know) ................................ 9 TOTAL DEMOCRAT ................................ 35% TOTAL INDEPENDENT................................ 26 TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................ 30

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS Q2. Now I'd like to ask your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each name, tell me whether your impression of that

person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so. Here's the first one: [READ ITEM] Have you heard of that person? [IF YES] Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable? FAVORABLE Very Some • Mary Landrieu ................................................................ 23% 19 ROTATE

(Mixed) 1

UNFAVORABLE Some Very 14 38

(Can’t rate) 4

Never heard 2

RECOGNITION Effective Total 95% 98%

TOTAL Fav Unfav 42% 52

• Barack Obama ................................................................ 30%

11

-

11

45

2

1

97%

99%

41%

56

• Bill Cassidy ................................................................ 6%

19

1

8

8

15

43

42%

57%

25%

16

Q3. Mary Landrieu is running for another term in the U.S. Senate this year.

At this point, would you most likely vote for Landrieu to serve another term in the U.S. Senate, or would you most likely vote to replace him with a Republican? [IF CHOICE] Do you strongly or only somewhat support [RE-ELECTING LANDRIEU/REPLACING LANDRIEU WITH A REPUBLICAN]?

VOL: VOL:

Likely Definite LANDRIEU: Strongly................................ 28% 28% LANDRIEU: Somewhat ................................ 8 7 REPUBLICAN: Somewhat ................................ 5 5 REPUBLICAN: Strongly ................................ 42 44 (Depends) ................................ 6 7 (Don’t know) ................................ 10 9 TOTAL LANDRIEU ................................ 36% 35% TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................ 47 48

Q4. In particular, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, the candidates are [ROTATE:] • Mary Landrieu, the Democrat, AND

• Bill Cassidy, the Republican, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?

VOL:

Likely Definite Landrieu ................................................................ 42% 40% (Lean Landrieu) ................................* * Cassidy ................................................................ 45 47 (Lean Cassidy) ................................2 2 (Undecided) ................................ 11 11 TOTAL LANDRIEU ................................ 42% TOTAL CASSIDY ................................ 46

40% 49

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3227

Louisiana

Page 2/3

Now for a few questions on other issues. ROTATE ORDER OF ASKING Q5 and Q6/Q7 Q5. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose oil

and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimes known as fracking? VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly ................................37% SUPPORT: Somewhat................................ 20 OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................8 OPPOSE: Strongly ................................ 7 (Don't know) ................................................................ 28 TOTAL SUPPORT ................................ 57% TOTAL OPPOSE ................................ 15

Q6. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose

the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the Northern U.S. to refineries in Texas? VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly ................................53% SUPPORT: Somewhat................................ 15 OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................7 OPPOSE: Strongly ................................ 5 (Don't know) ................................................................ 20 TOTAL SUPPORT ................................ 67% TOTAL OPPOSE ................................ 12

ASK IF SUPPORT KEYSTONE [N = 272, MoE = 5.9%] Q7. For this question, assume that President Obama denies the permit to construct the

Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct the Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for Mary Landrieu for U.S. Senate?

VOL: VOL:

MORE LIKELY: Much ................................ 14% MORE LIKELY: Somewhat ................................ 9 LESS LIKELY: Somewhat................................ 12 LESS LIKELY: Much ................................34 (No difference) ................................................................ 22 (Don't know) ................................................................ 10 TOTAL MORE LIKELY ................................ 23% TOTAL LESS LIKELY ................................ 45

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS Q9. Looking ahead, how important are energy issues, including the Keystone XL pipeline,

in terms of how you will vote in this year’s election? Are they very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all in determining how you will vote? VOL: VOL:

Very important ................................................................ 45% Somewhat important ................................34 Not very important ................................ 10 Not important at all ................................ 6 (Depends) ................................................................ 1 (Don't know) ................................................................ 5 TOTAL IMPORTANT ................................ 78% TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT................................ 16

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only. D100. Sex.

Male ................................................................ 48% Female ................................................................ 52

VOL:

18-24 ................................................................ 3% 25-29 ................................................................ 4 30-34 ................................................................ 5 35-39 ................................................................ 5 40-44 ................................................................ 8 45-49 ................................................................ 6 50-54 ................................................................ 10 55-59 ................................................................ 12 60-64 ................................................................ 14 65+ ................................................................ 32 (Refused) ................................................................ 1

VOL:

Liberal ................................................................ 12% Somewhat liberal ................................ 5 Moderate ................................................................ 16 Somewhat conservative ................................ 21 Conservative ................................................................ 36 (Don’t know) ................................................................ 9

D101. What is your age?

D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal, somewhat

liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative?

TOTAL LIBERAL................................ 18% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ................................ 57

VOL:

Yes ................................................................ 73% No................................................................ 26 (Don't know/Not sure) ................................1

VOL:

Yes ................................................................ 89% No................................................................ 10 (Don't know/Not sure) ................................1

D510. Do you have a landline telephone?

D511. Do you have a mobile telephone?

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3227

Louisiana

Page 3/3

D512. Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobile

phone, or do you use both equally?

VOL:

Landline only ................................................................ 11% Landline mostly ................................................................ 8 Both ................................................................ 25 Cell mostly................................................................ 28 Cell only ................................................................ 27 (Don't know) ................................................................ 1 TOTAL LANDLINE ................................ 19% TOTAL CELL................................................................ 55

D300. And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you please tell me your race? [IF NECESSARY] Well, most people consider themselves black or white?

VOL: VOL:

Black ................................................................ 30% White ................................................................ 66 (Other) ................................................................ 2 (Don’t know/Refused) ................................2

VOL:

Yes ................................................................ 3% No................................................................ 94 (Don't know/Refused) ................................3

D301. Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?

Thank you for taking the time to complete this interview.

Personal popularity of U.S. Senate candidates Mary Landrieu Total CR/ Unfav NH

Net Fav

Total Fav

Bill Cassidy Total CR/ Unfav NH

Total recognition Mary Bill Landrieu Cassidy

Effective recognition Mary Bill Landrieu Cassidy

Total

Total Fav

TOTAL

404

42%

52

5

-10

25%

16

58

10

98%

57%

95%

42%

Definite voters

337

40%

54

4

-14

27%

16

56

11

99%

59%

96%

44%

REGION New Orleans: All New Orleans: White New Orleans: Black Baton Rouge Lake Charles/Lafayette Shreveport Alexandria/Monroe

138 89 40 80 79 49 58

56% 41% 88% 27% 46% 30% 34%

38 55 3 72 44 58 59

4 4 6 1 8 12 6

17 -14 85 -45 2 -28 -25

17% 18% 21% 47% 22% 31% 14%

13 9 21 27 16 5 14

69 73 56 25 59 62 71

4 9 0 20 6 26 0

99% 100% 97% 100% 97% 96% 96%

54% 49% 69% 84% 57% 47% 35%

96% 96% 94% 99% 92% 88% 94%

31% 27% 44% 75% 41% 38% 29%

RACE White Black

268 120

29% 70%

64 24

6 5

-35 46

28% 19%

12 24

59 56

17 -4

99% 97%

58% 56%

94% 95%

41% 44%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat White Democrat Others Republican

139 53 142 122

78% 77% 33% 11%

17 18 58 83

5 4 6 5

61 59 -25 -72

15% 7% 23% 40%

28 27 13 4

56 65 63 54

-13 -20 10 35

98% 100% 98% 98%

59% 58% 51% 61%

95% 96% 94% 95%

44% 35% 37% 46%

WHITE-SEX Male Female

128 140

26% 32%

68 61

5 6

-42 -28

32% 25%

11 12

56 61

21 13

100% 98%

57% 58%

95% 94%

44% 39%

WHITE-AGE 18-39 40-59 60+

44 86 138

19% 29% 33%

78 61 62

4 10 3

-59 -32 -29

29% 26% 29%

7 12 13

64 60 56

22 14 16

100% 97% 100%

51% 48% 66%

96% 90% 97%

36% 40% 44%

WHITE-IDEOLOGY Conservative Other

174 94

17% 53%

79 37

4 9

-62 16

35% 16%

8 18

55 66

26 -2

99% 98%

61% 51%

96% 91%

45% 34%

RATE LANDRIEU: Rate favorably LANDRIEU: Rate not favorably CASSIDY: Can rate CASSIDY: Cannot rate Can rate both

169 213 171 233 167

100% 0% 39% 44% 40%

0 98 58 47 59

0 0 2 8 0

100 -98 -18 -3 -19

14% 36% 60% 0% 60%

26 9 37 0 37

60 53 0 100 0

-12 27 23 0 22

100% 100% 99% 97% 100%

52% 63% 100% 26% 100%

100% 100% 98% 92% 100%

40% 47% 100% 0% 100%

RE-ELECT Landrieu Republican Depends/Don't know

146 190 69

90% 7% 34%

6 88 46

2 4 16

84 -81 -11

14% 39% 12%

32 6 8

53 54 77

-19 33 4

99% 99% 96%

60% 61% 40%

98% 96% 84%

47% 46% 23%

SENATE VOTE Landrieu Cassidy Don't know

171 188 45

86% 4% 31%

11 93 35

3 3 26

76 -89 -4

15% 40% 4%

30 5 5

55 53 88

-16 35 -1

99% 99% 94%

57% 64% 29%

97% 97% 74%

45% 47% 12%

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Support Oppose Don't know

231 60 113

33% 66% 47%

63 31 38

3 2 12

-30 35 9

31% 21% 15%

15 28 10

53 50 72

16 -8 5

98% 98% 99%

62% 64% 44%

97% 98% 88%

47% 50% 28%

KEYSTONE Support Oppose Don't know

272 50 81

33% 62% 59%

62 37 25

4 1 13

-29 25 35

32% 15% 10%

14 36 9

53 49 80

18 -22 1

98% 99% 99%

62% 65% 35%

96% 99% 87%

47% 51% 20%

EFFECT ON VOTE More likely to vote Landrieu Less likely to vote Landrieu No difference/Don't know

63 124 85

76% 13% 30%

21 84 61

3 2 7

55 -71 -31

19% 39% 31%

32 6 12

49 53 55

-13 33 19

97% 100% 96%

63% 62% 62%

97% 98% 93%

51% 47% 45%

ENERGY ISSUES Very important Not very important

181 223

36% 46%

58 46

5 6

-22 0

30% 22%

17 15

53 62

13 7

98% 98%

62% 54%

95% 94%

47% 38%

Net Fav

U.S. Senate vote preference

Total

Q3. Re-elect Landrieu Dep Net Re-elect Replace /DK Re-elect

Q4. Current vote Landrieu Cassidy

DK

Net Landrieu

TOTAL

404

36%

47

17

-11

42%

46

11

-4

Definite voters

337

35%

48

16

-13

40%

49

11

-8

REGION New Orleans: All New Orleans: White New Orleans: Black Baton Rouge Lake Charles/Lafayette Shreveport Alexandria/Monroe

138 89 40 80 79 49 58

42% 29% 75% 27% 39% 34% 31%

41 55 12 65 43 51 37

16 16 13 7 18 14 32

1 -26 63 -38 -4 -17 -7

51% 36% 83% 33% 42% 34% 43%

37 50 9 64 43 54 42

12 14 8 3 15 11 15

14 -15 74 -30 -2 -20 0

RACE White Black

268 120

23% 65%

62 15

15 20

-38 50

26% 79%

63 12

12 9

-37 68

PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat White Democrat Others Republican

139 53 142 122

72% 70% 25% 8%

13 20 45 87

14 9 30 5

59 50 -20 -80

84% 76% 29% 11%

11 20 51 81

5 4 20 8

73 57 -23 -71

WHITE-SEX Male Female

128 140

20% 26%

63 60

17 14

-44 -34

23% 28%

64 62

14 10

-41 -34

WHITE-AGE 18-39 40-59 60+

44 86 138

12% 19% 29%

76 59 59

12 22 12

-64 -39 -29

15% 25% 29%

73 56 63

11 20 7

-58 -31 -34

WHITE-IDEOLOGY Conservative Other

174 94

13% 43%

74 39

14 17

-61 4

13% 48%

77 36

9 16

-64 12

RATE LANDRIEU: Rate favorably LANDRIEU: Rate not favorably CASSIDY: Can rate CASSIDY: Cannot rate Can rate both

169 213 171 233 167

78% 5% 40% 33% 41%

8 79 51 44 50

14 16 9 23 9

70 -74 -11 -11 -9

87% 9% 45% 40% 46%

4 82 52 42 51

8 9 3 17 3

83 -74 -7 -2 -5

RE-ELECT Landrieu Republican Depends/Don't know

146 190 69

100% 0% 0%

0 100 0

0 0 100

100 -100 0

98% 5% 29%

1 89 25

1 6 47

96 -84 4

SENATE VOTE Landrieu Cassidy Don't know

171 188 45

83% 1% 3%

5 90 27

12 9 71

78 -89 -24

100% 0% 0%

0 100 0

0 0 100

100 -100 0

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Support Oppose Don't know

231 60 113

27% 62% 41%

60 26 32

14 12 27

-33 36 9

33% 67% 48%

58 30 32

9 3 21

-25 38 16

KEYSTONE Support Oppose Don't know

272 50 81

28% 61% 49%

57 30 25

15 9 27

-29 31 24

34% 71% 53%

57 27 23

9 2 24

-23 45 30

EFFECT ON VOTE More likely to vote Landrieu Less likely to vote Landrieu No difference/Don't know

63 124 85

75% 8% 22%

11 85 50

14 8 28

64 -77 -28

90% 12% 24%

8 82 57

2 6 19

82 -70 -33

ENERGY ISSUES Very important Not very important

181 223

32% 39%

54 42

14 19

-21 -2

42% 43%

50 43

8 14

-9 0

Keystone pipeline and hydraulic fracturing

Total

Q5. Hydraulic fracturing Net Support Oppose DK Support

Q6. Keystone pipeline Support Oppose

DK

Net Support

Q7. Effect on Landrieu vote if stopped More Less None Net Total likely likely /DK More

TOTAL

404

57%

15

28

42

67%

12

20

55

272

23%

45

31

-22

Definite voters

337

57%

16

27

41

68%

13

19

55

230

20%

47

32

-27

REGION New Orleans: All New Orleans: White New Orleans: Black Baton Rouge Lake Charles/Lafayette Shreveport Alexandria/Monroe

138 89 40 80 79 49 58

53% 52% 49% 57% 63% 70% 47%

15 14 17 16 15 7 18

32 34 34 27 21 22 34

38 38 32 41 48 63 29

56% 57% 46% 70% 81% 74% 68%

17 17 20 18 8 6 5

27 26 34 12 11 19 27

38 41 27 52 74 68 63

77 51 19 56 64 36 39

21% 12% 50% 18% 28% 16% 33%

41 47 24 56 37 60 40

38 41 25 27 35 24 26

-20 -36 26 -38 -9 -44 -7

RACE White Black

268 120

59% 50%

13 20

28 31

46 30

71% 60%

11 15

18 26

60 45

190 72

12% 55%

54 22

34 24

-42 33

PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat White Democrat Others Republican

139 53 142 122

44% 36% 57% 71%

22 26 15 7

33 38 28 22

22 10 42 65

53% 44% 68% 83%

19 28 9 9

28 29 23 8

33 16 59 75

74 23 97 102

59% 33% 13% 6%

22 32 48 60

19 34 38 34

38 1 -35 -53

WHITE-SEX Male Female

128 140

73% 46%

13 13

15 40

60 33

82% 60%

8 14

10 25

75 46

105 84

11% 13%

49 61

40 26

-37 -48

WHITE-AGE 18-39 40-59 60+

44 86 138

63% 54% 61%

15 11 13

21 35 26

48 42 48

69% 70% 72%

14 9 11

17 21 17

55 61 60

31 60 99

10% 12% 12%

54 45 59

35 43 28

-44 -32 -47

WHITE-IDEOLOGY Conservative Other

174 94

67% 45%

7 23

26 31

59 22

81% 51%

7 19

12 30

74 33

142 48

9% 21%

58 43

33 36

-49 -22

RATE LANDRIEU: Rate favorably LANDRIEU: Rate not favorably CASSIDY: Can rate CASSIDY: Cannot rate Can rate both

169 213 171 233 167

45% 69% 64% 52% 64%

24 9 18 13 18

31 22 18 35 18

21 61 46 39 46

53% 81% 75% 62% 75%

18 9 15 10 15

29 11 10 28 9

35 72 60 51 60

90 172 129 144 126

53% 8% 25% 22% 25%

18 61 45 46 45

28 31 30 33 30

35 -53 -20 -24 -21

RE-ELECT Landrieu Republican Depends/Don't know

146 190 69

42% 73% 46%

25 8 11

32 19 44

17 64 35

52% 82% 62%

21 8 7

27 11 32

31 74 55

76 154 42

63% 4% 21%

12 68 22

25 28 56

50 -63 -1

SENATE VOTE Landrieu Cassidy Don't know

171 188 45

45% 71% 44%

24 9 4

32 19 52

21 62 40

54% 83% 55%

21 7 3

25 10 43

33 76 52

92 155 25

61% 3% 6%

16 66 28

22 31 66

45 -62 -23

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Support Oppose Don't know

231 60 113

100% 0% 0%

0 100 0

0 0 100

100 -100 0

85% 52% 40%

6 41 10

9 7 50

79 10 30

196 31 45

20% 39% 27%

49 40 33

31 21 40

-29 -1 -6

KEYSTONE Support Oppose Don't know

272 50 81

72% 28% 25%

11 50 5

16 23 70

61 -22 20

100% 0% 0%

0 100 0

0 0 100

100 -100 0

272 0 0

23% 0% 0%

45 0 0

31 0 0

-22 0 0

EFFECT ON VOTE More likely to vote Landrieu Less likely to vote Landrieu No difference/Don't know

63 124 85

62% 78% 71%

19 10 8

19 12 21

43 68 64

100% 100% 100%

0 0 0

0 0 0

100 100 100

63 124 85

100% 0% 0%

0 100 0

0 0 100

100 -100 0

ENERGY ISSUES Very important Not very important

181 223

66% 50%

15 15

19 35

51 35

78% 59%

12 13

10 28

66 46

142 131

28% 18%

51 40

21 43

-22 -22