Heat Pump Water Heaters: Growing the Global Market Dr George Wilkenfeld George Wilkenfeld & Associates, Sydney ACEEE Hot Water Forum Atlanta, 5 November 2013

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

1

What I will cover   

Global heat pump water heater market Size of various markets Main drivers of market growth – will not say much about US market – or about Australia: leave that to my colleague – data sources in CLASP report – see http://www.clasponline.org/apec-hpwh



Some conclusions: what seems to work

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2

Global sales – air source HPWHs

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

3

Global market share 100% 90% 80%

Share of Global Market

70% Rest of World North America

60%

Australia China Europe

50% 40%

Japan

30% 20% 10% 0% 2004

2005

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

4

The market   

Global market grew 33% per yr to 2008 Then impacted by global financial crisis US sales about 2 x Australian sales » But US has nearly 14 times the population



Japan and Sweden only countries where HPWHs have a significant share of water heater market

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

5

HPWH sales per ’000 people, 2012

Sweden Japan France Germany Australia UK Rest of EU N. America China George Wilkenfeld & Associates

Air source 1.9 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

Ground source 3.4 ? 0.1 0.3 ? 0.0 0.2 ? ?

Combined 5.3 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 6

Minimum and endorsement efficiency levels China (Standard)

3.7 COP

One time heating

3.4 COP

Static heating

USA, Canada (MEPS 2015)

0.944 EER

55 US gal (208 litres)

1.994 EER

>55 US gal

2.0 EER

Energy star criteria (2013)

2.4 COP

Cold climate, small HH

3.0 COP

Warm climate, large HH

Japan (Top runner)

GB/T 23137-2008 CFR – 430,

JIS C9220

Thailand (new 3.5 COP bldgs >2000 m2) 3.0 COP

Delivery temp 50ºC Delivery temp 60ºC

Relevant standard up to regulator ?

Europe (Topten)

Also labelling

EN 16147

Depends on climate zone, size

AS/NZS 5125/4823

2.3 COP *

Australia (STCs) Varies *

* MEPS under consideration George Wilkenfeld & Associates

7

European market 450

Sales ('000)

400

350

All of EU ground source

300

France - air source

250

UK - air source

200 Sweden - air source 150 Germany - air source 100 Rest of EU - air source

50

0 2006

2007

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

8

EU Market 2012 140,000

120,000

Sales - all HPWH, 2012

100,000

80,000 Ground-source Air-source 60,000

40,000

20,000

0 France

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

Germany

Sweden

UK

Rest of EU

9

Some observations 

Air-source HPWH market growing steadily » After some shrinkage in France



Ground source HPWHs also popular » Mature market, especially in Nordic countries » 30% of the total EU HPWH market



Air-source market split between types » Unitary, split, exhaust air, monobloc (does SH also)



EU introducing a cross-type, cross-region label » A+ and higher only possible with HPWH or solar George Wilkenfeld & Associates

10

EU water heater label

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

11

EU water heater labelling scales Drawoff profile M L XL XXL

G

F

E

=28%

>=30% >=30% >=30% >=32%

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

Efficiency required to achieve this rating D C B A A+ >=33% >=34% >=35% >=36%

>=36% >=37% >=38% >=40%

>=39% >=50% >=55% >=60%

>=65% >=75% >=80% >=85%

>=100% >=115% >=123% >=131%

A++

A+++

>=130% >=150% >=160% >=170%

>=163% >=188% >=200% >=213%

12

Japan ‘Ecocute’ market 4,500,000

4,000,000

Air source CO2 HPWHs

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000 Total installed Sales 2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

2003

2004

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13

Japan 

Hot water use per dwelling unusually high » Typical 420 litres/day, much it for baths



Government and utilities started research in 1995 » Developed CO2 refrigerant products for AC and water heating



‘Eco-kyuto’ (‘Ecocute’) Water heaters introduced 2001 » About USD 6,000 (before govt/utility subsidy) » Sales now 550,000 per year; 3.5 million installed by end 2012 » Accounts for majority of electric WH sales

 

Now researching ground source HPWH for cold areas ‘Top-runner’ program raises MEPS for all types George Wilkenfeld & Associates

14

China 

China now world’s largest appliance maker » Domestic water heater market over 30 m/yr

 

HPWH sales low, but expect 40% annual growth Most production is exported » Concerned with differences in global standards and the design philosophies they favour – EN16147 favours small compressor, low ambient, quiet – GB/T23137 favours bigger compressor, higher ambient



Beginning to get serious about CO2 products George Wilkenfeld & Associates

15

Factors supporting HPWH market growth   



High electricity prices No access to natural gas Govt – industry joint commitment to market Regulations favouring HPWHs » e.g. greenhouse limits for new dwellings, outright bans on electric resistance



Sustained, reasonable price subsidies » But too much cash too quickly is problematic



Energy labelling » Officially-endorsed labels give customers confidence » But impacts of cross-type and cross-fuel labels remain to be seen



Steady progress with CO2 technology

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

16

Factors inhibiting HPWH market growth 

Lack of market clarity » Many configurations, refrigerants, performance claims



Competition from other “clean” WH types » Gas, solar



Premature over-hyping, immature technology » Need to sort out noise, performance and warranty issues » Danger of the ‘CFL effect’

 

Cost disadvantage Differences in test standards » But mainly a problem for global exporters » Not top of mind for other suppliers (more concerned with supports) George Wilkenfeld & Associates

17

Conclusions  



Air source HPWH market still very small and may not grow very fast Given the right conditions, can become dominant electric WH technology But the right conditions may not come together very often

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

18

THANK YOU. ANY QUESTIONS?

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

19

Australian market – all air source 80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000 Other Solar replace Electric replace

40,000

Gas replace New Build First HW

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 2005

2006

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20

Market drivers 

HPWHs and solar WHs eligible to create ‘renewable energy certificates’ since 2005 » Subsidises price by $800-1,000 per unit » Legislated to 2030, but often ‘reviewed’



New building regulations exclude electric resistance water heaters in most states » Some also exclude them from replacement market



Direct cash incentives, 2008-2011 » Federal (everywhere) and some States

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

21

Impact of cash rebates 80000

$2,500

$2,000 60000

50000 $1,500

40000

$1,000 30000

20000 $500

Average combined CW+NSW rebate per HP sale

Annual sales of HPWHs (Rest of Aust + NSW)

70000

10000

0

$0 2005

2006

George Wilkenfeld & Associates

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

22