October 15, 2015
Growing to the next level Capital Markets Day 2015 Thomas Ebeling Keynote | October 15, 2015 |
| Page 1
We have made great achievements since last year’s CMD … Leading audience share
>29%
Success of small channels
Distribution deals
Lighthouse productions
Σ 3.9% share
Key strategic M&A deals
New commerce verticals Beauty & Accessories
Online Comparison
| October 15, 2015 | Note: all audience shares target group A14-49, 9M 2015
International footprint of MCN #1 GER #5 Global | Page 2
… and introduce new strategic elements and topics today …
“String of Pearls” M&A strategy Own Ad Tech ecosystem
Enhanced vertical strategy
Distinct positioning of small channels
New advanced sales offerings
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 3
… supporting our strong equity story Share price increase and attractive dividends
Dual approach
Market leader
We are strongly positioned in our growing core TV market and in dynamic digital markets
We maintain leading positions in the Germanspeaking TV and online video business
| October 15, 2015 |
Growth path We expect to exceed our initial EUR 1bn 2018 revenue growth target
Financial outperformance We have delivered multi-year financial and operational outperformance
| Page 4
We grew dynamically in H1 2015 … External revenues [in EUR m]
1,427 Rec. EBITDA margin of
+155 (+12%) 1,272
H1 2014
| October 15, 2015 |
27.3%
H1 2015
| Page 5
… across all three business segments
Revenue growth vs. H1 2014
Broadcasting German-speaking
Digital & Adjacent
TV advertising
Distribution
Ventures & Commerce
Digital Entertainment
Adjacent
+3.4%
+28.7%
+37.2%
+18.0%
+9.1%
Content Production & Global Sales
+4.7%
+26.1%
+76.5%
+EUR 45m
+EUR 66.6m
+EUR 43.3m
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 6
We have continuously grown since 2009 … External Group revenues [in EUR m]
CAGR: +8.6% 1,921
2,051
2,199
2009
2010
2011
2,356
2012
2,605
2013
2,876
2014
3,031
H1 2015 LTM
| October 15, 2015 | Note: CAGR calculated based on annual growth rates of continuing operations at the time
| Page 7
… with strong revenue and earnings performance Revenues
+8.6%
(CAGR 2009 - LTM H1 2015)
Recurring EBITDA (CAGR 2009 - LTM H1 2015)
+10.9%
Recurring EBITDA margin (LTM H1 2015)
+29.0%
Underlying net income (CAGR 2009 - LTM H1 2015)
+28.6%
Net debt reduction
(2009 - LTM H1 2015)
Financial leverage
(June 30, 2015)
EUR
1.5bn
2.0x
| October 15, 2015 | Note: CAGRs calculated based on annual growth rates of continuing operations at the time
| Page 8
Our strategy
Outlook
2
1 How we build our Group strategy on key industry trends
How we strengthen our TV position
| October 15, 2015 |
3 How we take D&A to the next level
4 How we broaden our production footprint
5 What is our financial outlook?
| Page 9
1 2 3 4 5
Key industry trends are influencing our businesses … Changing TV and online viewing habits
Disintermediation of key steps in our value chains
Fragmentation of channels & platforms
Tech & data as new key success factors
Growing TV viewing share of best agers
Global platformdriven players entering the market
| October 15, 2015 |
Increasing convergence of TV and digital commerce
| Page 10
1 2 3 4 5
… on which we base our strategic objectives … Industry trend
Our strategic objectives
Changing viewing habits Become a local and global video entertainment player
Fragmentation Best ager Convergence of TV & digital commerce Disintermediation Tech & data Global platform players | October 15, 2015 |
Expand our reach through new distribution platforms
Establish specific products/services for elderly target group Further connect TV and our digital commerce platforms Integrate along the TV and online video value chain Build own programmatic ecosystem with acquired Ad Tech stack Build new platform-driven digital verticals | Page 11
1 2 3 4 5
… translated into our segment strategies Broadcasting German-speaking
Strengthen and expand our leading TV position with broader reach and leverage synergies with digital
Digital & Adjacent
Build leading local and international digital commerce verticals & entertainment platforms
Content Production & Global Sales
Become a leading global content producer/distributor
Optimize portfolio value through M&A | October 15, 2015 |
| Page 12
1 2 3 4 5
TV growth plan at a glance
Grow audience share with existing and new channels Attack print, radio and outdoor – national and regional Capture CPM upside potential through premium pricing Build reach and revenue streams through new distribution platforms Follow 360° sales approach covering the entire value chain
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 13
1 2 3 4 5
Digital & Adjacent growth plan at a glance
Continue to build and grow new commerce verticals Become a global digital entertainment player Secure top 3 PayVoD position through distribution deals Enter new adjacent segments and digitize business Accelerate growth through strategic M&A moves
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 14
1 2 3 4 5
Content Production & Global Sales growth plan at a glance
Continuously optimize portfolio Continue to build scale across key markets (e.g. English-speaking) and genres Extend US scripted, reality and factual portfolio Targeted strategic content production partnerships Expand own digital production capabilities and output
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 15
1 2 3 4 5
M&A growth plan at a glance
Continue “String of Pearls” strategy with smaller and larger bolt-on acquisitions Accelerate build-up of digital commerce verticals by leveraging our TV power Expand Digital Entertainment business globally Continue to build (US) content/production footprint
No transformative acquisition or merger currently contemplated
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 16
Our strategy
Outlook
2
1 How we build our Group strategy on key industry trends
How we strengthen our TV position
| October 15, 2015 |
3 How we take D&A to the next level
4 How we broaden our production footprint
5 What is our financial outlook?
| Page 17
1 2 3 4 5
Best 9 months ratings performance in the last ten years … Audience share (A14-49)
29.5
[9M, in %]
28.6
28.3
2006
27.9
27.9
2007
2008
2009
28.6
2010
28.6
2011
28.4 27.7
27.6
2012
2013
2014
2015
Basis: All German TV households (Germany + EU), A 14-49 years, Mon-Sun, full day 3-3h; P7S1 w/o N24 & w/o | October 15, 2015 | 9live, sixx since Feb. 1, 2011, SAT.1 Gold since Jan. 17, 2013, ProSieben MAXX since Sept. 3, 2013 Source: AGF in cooperation with GfK/TV Scope/P7S1 TV Deutschland
| Page 18
1 2 3 4 5
… with a clear lead over key competitor Audience share1)
Share of advertising2)
∆
[9M 2015, in %]
∆
[9M 2015, in %]
+5.0
+11.2
%pts
29.5
%pts
44.5 24.5 33.3
1) Basis: All German TV households (Germany + EU), A 14-49 years, Mon-Sun, full day 3-3h; RTL | October 15, 2015 | Mediengruppe w/o RTL II minority; Source: AGF in cooperation with GfK/TV Scope/P7S1 TV Deutschland 2) Gross values; Source: Nielsen/SevenOne Media, Sales Steering & Market Insights
| Page 19
1 2 3 4 5
The German TV market remains strong … TV viewing expected to remain stable in the coming years High quality content typically available on FTA TV Lower Pay TV penetration, limited willingness to pay Online video consumption incremental to TV viewing Studio contracts with supporting rights (incl. holdbacks) Windowing and preference for German language protect FTA TV and drive reach as well as monetization | October 15, 2015 |
| Page 20
1 2 3 4 5
… and TV is by far the leading medium Monthly net reach & usage duration Monthly net reach 100%
Total TV
Private TV Internet
50%
0
20 | October 15, 2015 |
40
60
80
100
Basis: TV viewers 3+; Internet users 2+; March 2015 Source: AGF in cooperation with GfK/TV Scope/Nielsen Netview/B4P/SevenOne estimates
120
Usage (hrs/month)
| Page 21
1 2 3 4 5
TV related consumption with increasing potential until 2020 … Daily TV and video consumption1) Online non-TV related (including PayVoD)
Ad target group (A 14-49)
Young segment (A 14-29)
[Ø daily video viewing in minutes]
[Ø daily video viewing in minutes]
Online TV related (streaming & catch-up)
Classic linear TV
259
217 31 9
177
2015E
50 187
38
+12% 171
162 33 12
60
117
98
2015E
2020E
29
TV related
2020E
-2% TV related
• Online video usage is incremental to TV related consumption • We have already captured the online eyeballs with our strong Digital Entertainment portfolio and are well prepared for potential changes in video consumption | October 15, 2015 |
1) Basis: All German TV households (Germany + EU) Source: AGF in cooperation with GFK, SOM projection
| Page 22
1 2 3 4 5
… supported by low penetration of alternative offerings … Pay TV penetration1)
20%
85%
53%
86-96%
USD 25
USD 95
USD 96
USD 33*
Share of time shifted usage (vs. live TV)3)
2%
11%
14%
5-7%
SVoD penetration4)
7%
45%
22%
32-69%
Connected TV penetration5)
32%
30%
41%
31-43%
Daily online video usage6)
21%
32%
33%
26-33%
Share of broadband connections >15 Mbps7)
14%
22%
24%
25-35%
Monthly spend per Pay TV household2)
Low penetration of pay offerings and alternative video technologies strengthen the position of linear Free-TV in Germany compared to other countries | October 15, 2015 |
1) DE ProSiebenSat.1 Distribution (2015E); USA SNL Kagan (2015E); UK ofcom International CMR 2014 (2013); NORDICS Digital TV Research (2014E) 2) DE VPRT Jahresbericht Pay-TV in Deutschland 2015 (2014) USA SNL Kagan 2015 (2014) UK ofcom International CMR 2014 (2013) NORDICS (*SWE only) ofcom International CMR 2014 (2013) 3) DE AGF TV Scope (Q1 2015) USA Nielsen (Q1 2015) UK Thinkbox Annual Review 2014 (2014) NORDICS FIN Finnpanel Oy, TAM 2014 (2014) NOR| TNS Gallup TV-meterpanel (2014) 4) DE P7S1 Analysis, YTD 08/2015, based on Goldmedia, GfK, forsa, PWC, IHS, Ampere Research; USA Nielsen Total Audience Report Q2 2015; UK ofcom CMR UK 2015 Q1; NORDICS eMarketer (2014) 5 & 6) TNS Google The Connected Consumer Survey 2014/2015 (2014) 7) AKAMAI Q1 2015
Page 23
1 2 3 4 5
… and distinct characteristics of the German TV market
Ad break intensity
Low intensity – highly regulated (max. 12 min/h)
High intensity – no ad break regulations (15-20 min/h)
Channel fragmentation
Less fragmentation – strong lighthouse channels
High fragmentation – premium TV package incl. >300 channels
Content quality in Free-TV
>50 high/good quality channels in FTA TV with top US & sport content
High-quality & top sport content not in basic TV service – Pay TV a ”Must Have”
Language
Dubbed version preferred
English language preferred
Studio contracts
FTA TV with strong negotiation position with supporting rights (incl. holdbacks)
Broad syndication model
Windowing
FTA TV widely protected vs. VoD
Parallel windowing of top content
Distinct characteristics of the German TV market secure dominant position of Free-TV compared to the US
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 24
1 2 3 4 5
TV usage share above print while TV ad share lagging behind … … while TV advertising share2) still lagging behind
TV usage share1) clearly higher than print …
[net share of advertising, in %]
[share of usage, in %]
37%
37%
∆
∆
+33 %pts
-15 %pts
22%
4% TV usage
Print usage
TV advertising
Print advertising
1%pt increase in media mix equals ~EUR 60m net TV ad revenues for P7S1 | October 15, 2015 |
1) Media usage 2014 (n = 1,501); based on Adults 14+ years; forsa, SevenOne Media 2) Magna Global (June, 2015), TV incl. Multichannel/Pay TV, Online including search (incl. Google) & other (incl. Facebook)
| Page 25
1 2 3 4 5
… which strongly differs from media mix in other countries Share of advertising: TV vs. print 2014 [in % of total media]
PRINT
53
TV 37 22
40
38
31 21
45
39
36
28 15
19
17
16
20
21
12
| October 15, 2015 | Source: Magna Global (Jun, 2015), TV incl. Multichannel/Pay TV, Online including search & other
| Page 26
1 2 3 4 5
We see an addressable EUR 2.7bn print ad spending potential Gross print ad spendings 20141) [in EUR bn]
Addressable net print potential (at 50% yield)
Not directly addressable2)
Regional
2.7 2.2 2.9
1.1
Regional: TV & digital potential
1.6
National: Core TV potential
Total: 8.3
3.2
National
1) Newspapers and magazines only; excl. professional magazines and direct mail | October 15, 2015 | 2) Not directly addressable: B2B, classifieds, tobacco, etc. Source: Nielsen Media Research (2014)/SOM Market Insights
| Page 27
1 2 3 4 5
Our strategy aims to strengthen & expand our leading position … Key market dynamics Linear TV with stronger position in Germany than in most other markets
Still comparably high print ad share in Germany
TV and digital remain complementary but with increasing convergence | October 15, 2015 |
Our strategic priority
Defend and broaden our core TV business Gain advertising business from print with TV Exploit synergies between TV and our digital business
| Page 28
1 2 3 4 5
… and translates into five priority actions Drive Attack
print
distribution
Maximize
and panel coverage
synergies with digital
Broaden
channel portfolio
Secure top
content
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 29
1 2 3 4 5
Content: Multi-year deals secure our program beyond 2019 Examples
Key TV program already secured beyond 2019
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 30
1 2 3 4 5
Channel portfolio: We have broadened our positioning …
Broaden core channels
Increase female share
Become younger
Increase relevance
10.9%
9.4%
5.3%
Focus on female
Strengthen elder female
Become broader
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
Grow small channels
9M 2015 audience shares1)
| October 15, 2015 |
1) Basis: All German TV households (Germany + EU), A 14-49 years, Mon-Sun, full day 3-3h Source: AGF in cooperation with GfK/TV Scope/P7S1 TV Deutschland
| Page 31
1 2 3 4 5
… and continue to launch new small channels Approach
Target groups Elderly/best agers
Innovative low cost, mono-thematic channels for stable target groups that are attractive for advertisers
Families & mainstream middle class Females
Less digital Millennials
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 32
1 2 3 4 5
Attack print: We are able to address regional potential of print Levers to address regional potential Existing solution: Cable spot overlay National spots with regional discount SAT.1 regional windows HbbTV 1.0 non-spot products HbbTV 2.0 spot overlay IPTV spot overlay (cooperation req.) Mobile live stream targeting (e.g. 7TV) | October 15, 2015 |
Short-term
Long-term
Potential ban 2016
HbbTV pricing upside potential due to print & individual TV targeting
| Page 33
1 2 3 4 5
Distribution: We maximize the value of our program offering Windowing Teaser
Reach
Monetization
Full preview Mobile
Catch up/ archive
Live TV
+
HD
+
Connected TV
Optimized windowing along entire value chain
| October 15, 2015 |
Increased reach through new technologies and devices
First time monetization of terrestrial HD distribution (2017)
| Page 34
1 2 3 4 5
Synergies: TV is the key enabler for our digital businesses TV
TV ad space at no additional cost
Advertising
High potential for product bundles and cross-promotion
Crosspromotion
>60k hrs top US studio content and exclusive local content
Content
Direct shopping through “clickable” Smart TV/HbbTV
Sales channel
Shared customer data & insights
| October 15, 2015 |
Data
Ventures & Commerce
Dig. Entertainment
| Page 35
Our strategy
Outlook
2
1 How we build our Group strategy on key industry trends
How we strengthen our TV position
| October 15, 2015 |
3 How we take D&A to the next level
4 How we broaden our production footprint
5 What is our financial outlook?
| Page 36
1 2 3 4 5
We maintain leading positions with our D&A assets Digital & Adjacent
Market position
Ventures & Commerce Travel vertical
Ventures
Digital Entertainment
New verticals Beauty & Accessories
#1
#1
(M4R/E) Leading German #1 media VC investor #1
AdVoD #1
#1
PayVoD
Games
Top
Top
34)
35)
Adjacent Music, Artist Mgmt., Live, Licensing #4
#2
#2 Top
Top
5
3
Online Comparison Top
5 Top
5
#2 #11)
#12)
#1 #1
#13)
#1 #1
Top
5 Other assets
#1 New
Video Innovation Hub
7NXT 1) Etraveli is the #1 flight player in the Nordics; Etraveli signed with envisaged closing in Q4 2015 2) Studio71 is #1 MCN in Germany, together with CDS top 5 globally 3) Yieldlab is #1 Premium SSP in DACH | October 15, 2015 | 4) SVoD market Germany, according to Forsa 5) Mobile and PC games publishers in Europe, excluding direct publishing by developers, P7S1 estimates
| Page 37
1 2 3 4 5
In Ventures & Commerce we continue our success story Key market dynamics E-commerce market growing doubledigit globally1)
International platform-driven players entering German market
New local digital markets emerging, e.g. for health or food products | October 15, 2015 | 1) Source: eMarketer
Our strategic priority
We continue to invest with M4R/E and in Lead Gen assets, to build new verticals in the most attractive markets, and grow these verticals in Germany and internationally with our platforms and M&A
| Page 38
1 2 3 4 5
We optimized our four phase approach to build verticals … Example: Phases of Travel vertical
Lead Gen
M4R/E
Vertical
International
Key criteria for vertical selection:
40 countries
Test media fit of markets with M4R/E
Understand markets with asset-light invests
| October 15, 2015 |
Build verticals based on phase 1 and 2 learnings
Expand most promising verticals internationally
• Synergies with TV • Structural market growth • Attractive margins • Synergies with existing verticals • Low likelihood of disruptive forces
| Page 39
1 2 3 4 5
… and have proven that our vertical strategy creates synergies … Example: Travel vertical
Cross-vertical lead gen and traffic push Marketing excellence (CRM, SEO, SEA) Joint WKZ initiatives (ad allowance)
>25% contribution to revenue growth1)
>35% contribution to rec. EBITDA growth1)
Shared services (e.g. HR, Finance, Legal)
15% Cross-unit data management
contribution to total rec. EBITDA1)
We generate more revenues and cost savings with inter- and intra-vertical synergies compared to standalone businesses | October 15, 2015 |
1) Estimated for FY 2015, rec. EBITDA w/o TV airtime costs Note: Etraveli signed with envisaged closing in Q4 2015
| Page 40
1 2 3 4 5
… therefore we take our vertical strategy to the next level Segment focus Focus on selected profitable market segments vs. “cover everything”
Blended offerings Create new revenue streams by bundling video, social and commerce (e.g. through new video innovation hub 7NXT)
| October 15, 2015 |
Own brands Broaden commerce portfolio with own exclusive offline brands/products
New sales platforms Establish multiple distribution platforms for attractive brands
| Page 41
1 2 3 4 5
In online video we further strengthen our position … Key market dynamics Video entertainment is becoming a local and global market (YouTube, Facebook) Advertising targeting is shifting from context buying to audience buying
Global players (Netflix, amazon) are pushing into the German SVoD market
| October 15, 2015 |
Our strategic priority
We build a global video player with key content verticals around Studio71 and CDS, create an Ad Tech stack to broaden AdVoD business, and secure our national PayVoD top 3 position via distribution
| Page 42
1 2 3 4 5
… through global expansion, Ad Tech and distribution …
We build the foundation for further global MCN expansion
| October 15, 2015 |
We create an own Ad Tech stack along the programmatic value chain
We secure our top 3 SVoD position through distribution deals
| Page 43
1 2 3 4 5
… growing our total video views further P7S1 total video views Germany1) [in bn]
+47% 2.6 1.8
+9bn Collective Digital Studio2)
Mandate
H1 2014
Mandate
Mandate
H1 2015
| October 15, 2015 |
1) Video Views of P7S1 AdVoD platforms and mandates 2) Collective Digital Studio video views pro forma (deal closed in Q3 2015)
| Page 44
1 2 3 4 5
We accelerate our growth with a “String of Pearls” M&A strategy
Bolt-on acquisitions accelerate our growth in national and international markets Attractive shareholder value creation potential for us through synergies with TV and our verticals Approach also includes joint deals with partners (e.g. VC funds) to secure most attractive assets
Commerce examples …
Entertainment examples …
We will continue our “String of Pearls” strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and opportunistic lighthouse deals to grow our commerce and entertainment business | October 15, 2015 |
| Page 45
1 2 3 4 5
Summary: In D&A we focus on five priority actions Become a global online
entertainment player
Build & grow further
commerce verticals
Continue
“String of Pearls” M&A strategy
Strengthen
Ad Tech footprint
Leverage TV and vertical
synergies
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 46
Our strategy
Outlook
2
1 How we build our Group strategy on key industry trends
How we strengthen our TV position
| October 15, 2015 |
3 How we take D&A to the next level
4 How we broaden our production footprint
5 What is our financial outlook?
| Page 47
1 2 3 4 5
Red Arrow has been showing continuous growth Red Arrow has been on an aggressive growth trajectory …
… while establishing a global footprint
[external revenues, in EUR m]
246 CAGR +90%
202
124 95 38 14 2010 2011 2012
2013
| October 15, 2015 |
2014 H1 2015 LTM | Page 48
1 2 3 4 5
Content production Key market dynamics Fragmentation of demand side – more smaller channels and digital/ OTT platforms “Golden age of scripted” – high demand for English-language fiction content Online market highly active, yet still experimental
| October 15, 2015 |
Our strategic priority
Create and own rights of “traveling” formats to maximize return across channels/platforms Expand US scripted catalogue
Build online production and sales capabilities
| Page 49
Our strategy
Outlook
2
1 How we build our Group strategy on key industry trends
How we strengthen our TV position
| October 15, 2015 |
3 How we take D&A to the next level
4 How we broaden our production footprint
5 What is our financial outlook?
| Page 50
1 2 3 4 5
We continued our strong financial performance in H1 2015 … H1 2015 vs. H1 2014 Continued double-digit revenue growth
Strong rec. EBITDA increase
Double-digit underlying net income growth rate above revenue and rec. EBITDA increase
| October 15, 2015 |
+12.2% +8.6%
+14.8%
| Page 51
1 2 3 4 5
… and confirm our positive outlook for 2015 …
High single-digit Group revenue growth TV ad performance in line with positive net TV ad market Digital & Adjacent with double-digit revenue growth Rec. EBITDA & underlying net income above prior year
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 52
1 2 3 4 5
… driven by positive development in all segments Broadcasting German-speaking • Continuing growth environment in TV advertising and distribution • Growing reach and improved monetization of new channels • Continuing efficiency of content exploitation across channel portfolio Digital & Adjacent
• Gaining scale in Ventures & Commerce and Digital Entertainment business • Further internationalization of SevenVentures business (“importer of choice”) • Leveraging TV power, vertical synergies and scale of commerce portfolio Content Production & Global Sales
• Broadening footprint in English-speaking markets • Increasing benefits from traveling formats and returning shows • Growing scripted and non-scripted catalogue through content investments
| October 15, 2015 |
| Page 53
1 2 3 4 5
We already achieved our current 2018 targets to a high degree … 2012-18 revenue growth target, degree of achievement
Current CMD 2018 target
[achievement based on H1 2015, in EUR m]
Achievement by H1 2015
Target achievement in %
61%
57%
150%
67%
1,000 600 300 182 Broadcasting German-speaking
674 343
1501) 100
Digital & Adjacent
Content Production & Global Sales
| October 15, 2015 | 1) 2018 target has already been exceeded
Current rec. EBITDA growth target:
EUR
200-250m | Page 54
1 2 3 4 5
… and therefore raise our revenue & rec. EBITDA growth targets 2012-18 revenue growth target increase
CMD 2018 target increase
[in EUR m]
1,850
Initial CMD 2018 target
+850 1,200
+600 375 +75
600
300
275 +175 100
Broadcasting German-speaking
Digital & Adjacent
| October 15, 2015 |
Content Production & Global Sales
1,000
New rec. EBITDA growth target:
EUR
350m | Page 55