Government policy to accelerate renewable energy development in Indonesia

Page  1 Government  policy  to  accelerate  renewable   energy  development  in  Indonesia Paul  Butarbutar Regional  Director  SEA  South  Pole  Gro...
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Government  policy  to  accelerate  renewable   energy  development  in  Indonesia Paul  Butarbutar Regional  Director  SEA  South  Pole  Group Head  of  Policy,  Regulation  &  Advocacy  IRES

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Overview

Current  energy  condition National  energy  policy Renewable  energy  potentials RE  policy  and  regulation

South  Pole  Carbon  ·  30.  J uni  2016

Current  energy  condition

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Current  energy  condition  Indonesia 1. Economic  growth  about  5  – 6%  per  year;;  population   growth  1.2%  per  year  à need  to  grow  energy  supply  by   7  – 8%  /  year 2. Energy  mix  is  still  dominated  by  fossil-­based  energy 3. Indonesia  is  a  net  oil  importer,  importing  crude  oil  as  well   as  diesel  and  gasoline   to  meet  energy  demand,  while  on   the  other  side  exporting  coal  and  gas 4. National  electrification  ratio  2015  was  88.5%,  target  for   2016  is  90%;; 5. Province  with  lowest  electrification  ratio: 1. 2. 3. 4.

Papua  (44,40%);; East  Nusatenggara (57,74%) South-­East  Sulawesi   (66,78%) Central  Kalimantan  68,27%;;

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Supply  of  primary  energy  Indonesia  (without  biomass)

Supply, of,primary,energy

Supply. of.primary.energy.2014

120

2.62

100

1.11

0.46

80

Oil. 18.62

60

Coal. 43.03

40 20

Gas. Hydropower.

0 34.16

Oil,

Coal,

Gas,

Hydropower,

Geothermal,

Biofuel,

Note: Oil Including Crude Oil, Petroleum Product and LPG Coal Including Coal and Briquette. Gas Including Natural Gas and LNG Biomass Including Firewood and Charcoal Biofuel Shows Pure Bio Energy (not Blending Product) Source:  2015  Handbook  of  Energy  &  Economic  Statistics  of  Indonesia,  Ministry  of  Energy  and  Mineral  Resources

Geothermal. Biofuel.

Electrification  ratio RASIO ELEKTRIFIKASI 2014 KATEGORI

Aceh

92,31%

Sumut

> 70 %

Kaltara

91,03%

Kaltim

69,64%

50 - 70 %

91,71%

< 50 %

Riau

Sulut

Kalbar

84,54%

Gorontalo

79,77%

Kepri

85,53%

Malut

74,65%

74,06%

90,52%

Papua Barat

77,81% Sumbar

Sumsel

80,14%

76,38%

Kalteng

67,23%

Sulteng

75,58% Jambi

80,70%

Babel

Sulbar

95,53%

74,11%

Papua

43,46%

Sultra Jakarta

Bengkulu

Jateng

99,61% 88,04%

83,47%

66,78%

Kalsel

Lampung

81,27%

Maluku

82,22%

83,75%

Banten

Bali

Sulsel

85,17%

85,05%

92,93% Jabar

86,04%

DIY

Jatim

NTB

NTT

82,26%

83,55%

68,05%

58,91%

REALISASI

TARGET BERDASARKAN DRAFT RUKN

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

67.15%

72.95%

76.56%

80.51%

84.35%

87.35%

90.15%

92.75%

95.15%

97.35%

3

3

GHG  emission  and  energy  security,  main  drivers  for   the  development  of  RE  &  EE  in  Indonesia Updated  baseline  emission  Indonesia

Source: Bappenas 2015 Hasil simulasi jangka panjang menunjukkan trend emisi GRK meningkat cukup signifikan Emission  from  the  energy  sector  will  increase  significantly  after  2020 terutama dari sektor energi hingga2010 tahun 2015-2030. PascatCO2e) 2030, emisi diperkirakan Simulationberasal of Indonesian baseline emission – 2045 (in thousand

South  Pole  Carbon  ·  30.  J uni  2016

National  energy  policy

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National Energy Policy (Gov Regulation No. 79/2014) Bussiness As Usual

Under  the  National  Energy  Policy,   government  combines  RE  +  EC

NRE 6%

Gas 24% Oil 41% 2014

NRE

Coal 30%

Coal 29%

Coal 29%

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSERVATION 11%

23%

EBT 17%

215 MTOE

§ PRIMAY ENERGY FRO M RE: 13 MTOE ü GEOTHERMAL: 6 MTOE ü BIOFUEL : 4 MTOE ü BIOMASS : 2 MTOE ü HYDRO : 1 MTOE

TARGET   2025 400 Juta TOE

290 MTOE

TODAY

§ TOTAL NATIONAL PRIMARY ENERGY 215 MTOE

450 MTOE

Gas 22%

Gas 22%

Oil 32%

Oil 25%

2020

2025 Current Power  generation Energy consumption Electricity consumption

2025 51  GW

115  GW

0,8  TOE/capita

1,4  TOE/capita

776  KWh/capita

2.500  KWh/capita

Primary Energi Mix (PP 79/2014)

Mandatory Primary Energi Mix Power generation (National Energy Policy)

Oil

25% ~ 96 MTOE

2025:  115  GW Power generation composition

Natural Gas 22% ~ 76,75 MTOE

60% Fosil

40% RE

Coal

22% ~ 113,45 MTOE

RE

23% ~ 84,15 MTOE

68,2 GW

46,8 GW

Optimazing RE power generation 46,75 Capacity gap ± 5GW, still in series of discussion on how to fill in this gap

41,89 GW 20,74 GW

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RE  development  plan  based  on  National   Electricity  Development  Plan Power&plant Geothermal Large&hydro Minihydro PV Wind Biomass/MSW Ocean Biofuel Total

Capacity MW MW MW MW MW MW MW Thousand&kL MW

2016 &&&&85 &&&&45 &&&&32 &&&&26 E &125 E &812 &313

2017 &350 &&&&57 &&&&78 &122 &&&&70 &142 E &594 &819

2018 &&&&&320 &&&&&175 &&&&&115 &&&&&&&70 &&&&&190 &&&&&135 E &&&&&365 &1,005

2019 &&&&&590 &1,405 &&&&&292 &&&&&&&50 &&&&&165 &&&&&&&11 E &&&&&261 &2,513

2020 &&&&&580 &&&&&147 &&&&&&&81 &&&&&118 &&&&&195 &&&&&&&21 E &&&&&230 &1,142

2021 &450 &330 &&&&86 &&&&11 &&&&10 &&&&11 E &170 &898

2022 &&&&&340 &&&&&639 &&&&&196 &&&&&&&10 E E E &&&&&173 &1,185

2023 &&&&&935 &2,322 &&&&&&&26 &&&&&&&17 &&&&&&&&&5 &&&&&&&21 E &&&&&179 &3,326

2024 &1,250 &2,031 &&&&&257 &&&&&&&10 E &&&&&&&15 E &&&&&189 &3,563

2025 &1,250 &5,950 &&&&&201 &&&&&&&10 &&&&&&&&&5 &&&&&&&&&6 E &&&&&191 &7,422

Total &&&&6,150 &13,101 &&&&1,364 &&&&&&&444 &&&&&&&640 &&&&&&&487 &&&&&&&&&&&&E &&&&3,164 &22,186

Note:  only  power  plants  with  installed  capacity  >  10  MW  needs  to  be  registered  in   the  National  Electricity  Development  Plan

South  Pole  Carbon  ·  30.  J uni  2016

Renewable  energy  potentials

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RE resources Indonesia  blessed  with  huge  RE  potentials  that  can  be  utilized  to  meet   government  target

NO

NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY

RESOURCES

INSTALLED CAPACITY (IC)

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2

3 75,000 MW 28,910 MW 32,654 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/day 3 – 6 m/s 49 GW ***) 3,000 MW *)

4 7,572 MW 1,403.5 MW 1,717.9 MW 48.05 MW 1.87 MW 0.01 MW ****) 30 MW **)

Hydro Geothermal Biomass Solar Wind Ocean Uranium *) Only in Kalan – West Borneo **) As a center of research, non-energy

***) Source: National Energy Council ****) BPPT’s Prototype

RATIO OF IC/RESOURCES (%) 5 = 4/3 10.1 % 4.9 % 5.4 % -

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