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Government policy to accelerate renewable energy development in Indonesia Paul Butarbutar Regional Director SEA South Pole Group Head of Policy, Regulation & Advocacy IRES
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Overview
Current energy condition National energy policy Renewable energy potentials RE policy and regulation
South Pole Carbon · 30. J uni 2016
Current energy condition
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Current energy condition Indonesia 1. Economic growth about 5 – 6% per year;; population growth 1.2% per year à need to grow energy supply by 7 – 8% / year 2. Energy mix is still dominated by fossil-based energy 3. Indonesia is a net oil importer, importing crude oil as well as diesel and gasoline to meet energy demand, while on the other side exporting coal and gas 4. National electrification ratio 2015 was 88.5%, target for 2016 is 90%;; 5. Province with lowest electrification ratio: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Papua (44,40%);; East Nusatenggara (57,74%) South-East Sulawesi (66,78%) Central Kalimantan 68,27%;;
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Supply of primary energy Indonesia (without biomass)
Supply, of,primary,energy
Supply. of.primary.energy.2014
120
2.62
100
1.11
0.46
80
Oil. 18.62
60
Coal. 43.03
40 20
Gas. Hydropower.
0 34.16
Oil,
Coal,
Gas,
Hydropower,
Geothermal,
Biofuel,
Note: Oil Including Crude Oil, Petroleum Product and LPG Coal Including Coal and Briquette. Gas Including Natural Gas and LNG Biomass Including Firewood and Charcoal Biofuel Shows Pure Bio Energy (not Blending Product) Source: 2015 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics of Indonesia, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Geothermal. Biofuel.
Electrification ratio RASIO ELEKTRIFIKASI 2014 KATEGORI
Aceh
92,31%
Sumut
> 70 %
Kaltara
91,03%
Kaltim
69,64%
50 - 70 %
91,71%
< 50 %
Riau
Sulut
Kalbar
84,54%
Gorontalo
79,77%
Kepri
85,53%
Malut
74,65%
74,06%
90,52%
Papua Barat
77,81% Sumbar
Sumsel
80,14%
76,38%
Kalteng
67,23%
Sulteng
75,58% Jambi
80,70%
Babel
Sulbar
95,53%
74,11%
Papua
43,46%
Sultra Jakarta
Bengkulu
Jateng
99,61% 88,04%
83,47%
66,78%
Kalsel
Lampung
81,27%
Maluku
82,22%
83,75%
Banten
Bali
Sulsel
85,17%
85,05%
92,93% Jabar
86,04%
DIY
Jatim
NTB
NTT
82,26%
83,55%
68,05%
58,91%
REALISASI
TARGET BERDASARKAN DRAFT RUKN
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
67.15%
72.95%
76.56%
80.51%
84.35%
87.35%
90.15%
92.75%
95.15%
97.35%
3
3
GHG emission and energy security, main drivers for the development of RE & EE in Indonesia Updated baseline emission Indonesia
Source: Bappenas 2015 Hasil simulasi jangka panjang menunjukkan trend emisi GRK meningkat cukup signifikan Emission from the energy sector will increase significantly after 2020 terutama dari sektor energi hingga2010 tahun 2015-2030. PascatCO2e) 2030, emisi diperkirakan Simulationberasal of Indonesian baseline emission – 2045 (in thousand
South Pole Carbon · 30. J uni 2016
National energy policy
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National Energy Policy (Gov Regulation No. 79/2014) Bussiness As Usual
Under the National Energy Policy, government combines RE + EC
NRE 6%
Gas 24% Oil 41% 2014
NRE
Coal 30%
Coal 29%
Coal 29%
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSERVATION 11%
23%
EBT 17%
215 MTOE
§ PRIMAY ENERGY FRO M RE: 13 MTOE ü GEOTHERMAL: 6 MTOE ü BIOFUEL : 4 MTOE ü BIOMASS : 2 MTOE ü HYDRO : 1 MTOE
TARGET 2025 400 Juta TOE
290 MTOE
TODAY
§ TOTAL NATIONAL PRIMARY ENERGY 215 MTOE
450 MTOE
Gas 22%
Gas 22%
Oil 32%
Oil 25%
2020
2025 Current Power generation Energy consumption Electricity consumption
2025 51 GW
115 GW
0,8 TOE/capita
1,4 TOE/capita
776 KWh/capita
2.500 KWh/capita
Primary Energi Mix (PP 79/2014)
Mandatory Primary Energi Mix Power generation (National Energy Policy)
Oil
25% ~ 96 MTOE
2025: 115 GW Power generation composition
Natural Gas 22% ~ 76,75 MTOE
60% Fosil
40% RE
Coal
22% ~ 113,45 MTOE
RE
23% ~ 84,15 MTOE
68,2 GW
46,8 GW
Optimazing RE power generation 46,75 Capacity gap ± 5GW, still in series of discussion on how to fill in this gap
41,89 GW 20,74 GW
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RE development plan based on National Electricity Development Plan Power&plant Geothermal Large&hydro Minihydro PV Wind Biomass/MSW Ocean Biofuel Total
Capacity MW MW MW MW MW MW MW Thousand&kL MW
2016 &&&&85 &&&&45 &&&&32 &&&&26 E &125 E &812 &313
2017 &350 &&&&57 &&&&78 &122 &&&&70 &142 E &594 &819
2018 &&&&&320 &&&&&175 &&&&&115 &&&&&&&70 &&&&&190 &&&&&135 E &&&&&365 &1,005
2019 &&&&&590 &1,405 &&&&&292 &&&&&&&50 &&&&&165 &&&&&&&11 E &&&&&261 &2,513
2020 &&&&&580 &&&&&147 &&&&&&&81 &&&&&118 &&&&&195 &&&&&&&21 E &&&&&230 &1,142
2021 &450 &330 &&&&86 &&&&11 &&&&10 &&&&11 E &170 &898
2022 &&&&&340 &&&&&639 &&&&&196 &&&&&&&10 E E E &&&&&173 &1,185
2023 &&&&&935 &2,322 &&&&&&&26 &&&&&&&17 &&&&&&&&&5 &&&&&&&21 E &&&&&179 &3,326
2024 &1,250 &2,031 &&&&&257 &&&&&&&10 E &&&&&&&15 E &&&&&189 &3,563
2025 &1,250 &5,950 &&&&&201 &&&&&&&10 &&&&&&&&&5 &&&&&&&&&6 E &&&&&191 &7,422
Total &&&&6,150 &13,101 &&&&1,364 &&&&&&&444 &&&&&&&640 &&&&&&&487 &&&&&&&&&&&&E &&&&3,164 &22,186
Note: only power plants with installed capacity > 10 MW needs to be registered in the National Electricity Development Plan
South Pole Carbon · 30. J uni 2016
Renewable energy potentials
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RE resources Indonesia blessed with huge RE potentials that can be utilized to meet government target
NO
NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY
RESOURCES
INSTALLED CAPACITY (IC)
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2
3 75,000 MW 28,910 MW 32,654 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/day 3 – 6 m/s 49 GW ***) 3,000 MW *)
4 7,572 MW 1,403.5 MW 1,717.9 MW 48.05 MW 1.87 MW 0.01 MW ****) 30 MW **)
Hydro Geothermal Biomass Solar Wind Ocean Uranium *) Only in Kalan – West Borneo **) As a center of research, non-energy
***) Source: National Energy Council ****) BPPT’s Prototype
RATIO OF IC/RESOURCES (%) 5 = 4/3 10.1 % 4.9 % 5.4 % -
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