This issue brought to you by

March 25, 2016 Volume 39, No. 6

2016 Senate Ratings Pure Toss-Up Johnson (r-Wi) fl open (rubio, r) NV open (reid, d)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat

Toss-Up/Tilt republican

Kirk (R-IL)

ayotte (r-NH) portman (r-oH) toomey (r-pa)

Lean Democrat

Lean republican

bennet (d-co)

burr (r-Nc)

Democrat Favored

republican Favored blunt (r-mo) mccain (r-az) iN open (coats, r)

Safe Democrat

Safe republican

blumenthal (d-ct)

boozman (r-ar)

leahy (d-Vt)

isakson (r-Ga)

murray (d-Wa)

lankford (r-oK)

schatz (d-Hi)

crapo (r-id)

schumer (d-Ny)

Grassley (r-ia)

Wyden (d-or)

Hoeven (r-Nd)

ca open (boxer, d)

lee (r-ut)

md open (mikulski, d)

moran (r-Ks) murkowski (r-aK)

GOP

DEM

paul (r-Ky)

114th congress

54

46

scott (r-sc)

Not up this cycle

30

36

shelby (r-al)

currently safe

14

8

thune (r-sd)

competitive

10

2

la open (Vitter, r)

Takeovers in Italics # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans

GOP Incumbents Brace for Primary Losses, But Survive So Far By Nathan L. Gonzales As Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and even Ben Carson harnessed the energy of antiestablishment voters in the Republican presidential race, GOP incumbents have grown worried they will be simultaneously swept out of office. But in spite of the volatility at the top of the ticket, Senate and House incumbents have survived their primaries, at least so far. The first test was Super Tuesday on March 1, when allies of Republican Sen. Richard Shelby (who has been in office since Ronald Reagan was president) and GOP Reps. Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby were concerned that Trump and Cruz supporters would vote against “establishment” candidates down the primary ballot. But Shelby prevailed with 65 percent over Jonathan McConnell (28 percent) and three other candidates. Byrne defeated Dean Young 60-40 percent (the two men faced off in a much closer race in 2014) in the 1st District. And Roby was renominated, 66-28 percent, over local tea party leader Becky Gerritson. Shelby received plenty of attention for a concerted digital advertising effort, but overall he outspent his opponents by millions of dollars. Roby’s allies were hoping to make an example of Gerritson by defeating her soundly. They were successful, but it’s not clear whether other insurgent candidates around the country were aware enough of the race to be discouraged. Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas did not have the massive campaign account that Shelby enjoys, but still faced down primary challenger Curtis Coleman 76-24 percent in the Republican primary on March 1. Two weeks later in North Carolina, Sen. Richard Burr defeated Greg Brannon 61-25 percent in the GOP primary. Brannon finished second in the 2014 primary with 27 percent Thom Tillis and is now GOPagainst DEM challenging Rep. Renee Ellmers in the 2nd District primary, which was 114th congress 54 46 re-scheduled for June 7 after the court ordered a new map to be drawn. Not up this cycle 30the most 36attention on March 15, Ohio While Burr’s primary received currently safe 8 percent and Illinois Sen. Sen. Rob Portman won his primary with 82 Mark Kirk prevailed with 71 percent on the competitive 10 2 same day. In the wake of senators stumbling and even completely falling in primaries over the last six years, it’s remarkable for the handful of senators to win their initial races with an average of 71 percent — especially amid Trump’s organic support. Even without Portman and

Continued on page 9

RothenbergGonzales.com

The Dust Clears: Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz

2016 Presidential Ratings (Electoral Votes)

Pure Toss-Up (69)

By Stuart Rothenberg The most bizarre presidential race in the history of the universe is starting to gel. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead looks solid enough, and she appears to be pivoting to the general election. Bernie Sanders will win more delegates and carry more states, but Clinton’s margin, including her huge advantage with superdelegates, means that barring some dramatic news, she will be her party’s nominee. On the GOP side, there are two possible outcomes. Either Donald Trump gets the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated (or gets close enough to that number so that he can’t be denied), or he comes up short on the first ballot and the convention picks the eventual nominee. While talk of a deadlocked convention has names like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney swirling, it is difficult to see the convention nominating someone other than either Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz 741 delegates to 461, according to CNN’s estimates. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails with 145 delegates, putting him even behind Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who exited the race with 166 delegates. Trump is the only hopeful with any chance of hitting a majority when the primary process ends on June 7. His prospects for gathering a majority of delegates depends on how well he shows in upcoming primaries in Wisconsin (April 5), New York (April 19), five Northeastern states (April 26) and California (June 7). Cruz continues to win support, or at least favorable comments, from establishment candidates, including Jeb Bush and Rubio, who see Trump as a greater long-term threat to the GOP. Trump’s positions on trade, spending, entitlements and national security are significantly at odds with most in the Republican Party, and insiders are clearly more worried that he will fracture the party than that he will merely lose the November election. Cruz has been asking for a head-to-head fight with Trump, but it isn’t clear that he can win that contest. His appeal in the Northeast is limited, and his prospects in six New England and Mid-Atlantic states that still have primaries are very uncertain. At this point, Kasich seems more a distraction than a serious contender. The GOP nomination isn’t likely to be decided until June 7 at the earliest.

colorado (9)

ohio (18)

florida (29)

Virginia (13)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (14) Toss-Up/Tilt republican (15) New Hampshire (4)

North carolina (15)

Wisconsin (10)

Lean Democratic (32)

Lean republican (0)

iowa (6) Nevada (6) pennsylvania (20)

Democrat Favored (38)

republican Favored (48)

michigan (16)

arizona (11)

minnesota (10)

Georgia (16)

New mexico (5)

indiana (11)

oregon (7)

missouri (10)

Safe Democratic (179)

Safe republican (143)

california (55)

rhode island (4) alabama (9)

connecticut (7)

Vermont (3)

delaware (3)

Washington (12) arkansas (6)

dc (3)

oklahoma (7)

alaska (3)

south carolina (9) south dakota (3)

idaho (4)

tennessee (11)

Hawaii (4)

Kansas (6)

texas (38)

illinois (20)

Kentucky (8)

utah (6)

maine (4)

louisiana (8)

West Virginia (5)

maryland (10)

mississippi (6)

Wyoming (3)

massachusetts (11)

montana (3)

New Jersey (14)

Nebraska (5)

New york (29)

North dakota (3)

270 needed to win

@InsideElections facebook.com/RPRPolitics Nathan L. Gonzales Editor & Publisher [email protected] @nathanlgonzales

Stuart Rothenberg Founding Editor & Publisher [email protected] @stupolitics

Will Taylor Production Artist

The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and presidential politics. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions in matters of public policy. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is published 24 times annually. Annual Subscription Rates: Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) • Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) Copyright 2016, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 77 K Street NE • 7th Floor • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822

2

March 25, 2016

RothenbergGonzales.com

Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections

Is an Anti-Trump Wave Putting the House Into Play? By Nathan L. Gonzales

rothenbergGonzales.com

more narrow than it appears. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján held a recent press conference to talk about the Trump effect and was asked to name specific districts. The New Mexico congressman mentioned districts such as Colorado’s 6th, Virginia’s 10th, Nevada’s 3rd, Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th, and California’s 25th. Those are all districts which would, or at least should, have been competitive Volume 38, No. 2

JaN. 23, 2015

Continued on page 4

2016 House Ratings Pure Toss-Up (2D, 10r)

CQ Roll Call File Photo

The closer Donald Trump or Ted Cruz gets to winning the Republican presidential nomination, the more Democrats talk about control of the House being in play. But even though the duo may deliver Democrats an electoral wave of historic proportions, it’s still not clear whether one will develop or whether Democrats are in position to ride it. According to the most common narrative, Trump is on pace to lose the presidential election by a wide margin. He trails Hillary Clinton by an average margin of 9 points (and as much as 13 points) in hypothetical general election matchups. That means we could be headed for the most lopsided presidential race since 1984, when President Ronald Reagan was re-elected by 18 points. Democrats’ dream is a replay of the 1964 election, when President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated conservative GOP Sen. Barry Goldwater 6139 percent and Democrats gained 37 House seats. Trump’s weakness this year has a lot to do with his terrible favorability ratings, as Stu pointed out in a recent Roll Call column. His unfavorable rating among adults was 67 percent, according to a March 3-6 Washington Post/ABC News poll, compared to Clinton’s 52 percent. And onethird of Republicans Barry Goldwater had an unfavorable rating of Trump in a late February poll for CNN, compared to just 14 percent of Democrats who had an unfavorable rating of Clinton. But while Trump’s supporters have yet to punish congressional Republicans by voting them out in primaries, there is a chance House Republicans suffer in the general election as moderate voters vote against them because of Trump and Republican voters embarrassed by Trump fail to support them by skipping the election altogether. That scenario is certainly possible, and may be even likely, but it’s also not clear yet that that is happening. In fact, there isn’t any district-level evidence to prove the House playing field is any different than it was 6-9 months ago, before Trump tightened his grip on the nomination. Last week, our friends at The Cook Political Report changed the ratings of 10 House races as the result of the so-called “Trump Effect.” But eight of those changes brought their rating in alignment to where we’ve had the race rated for weeks, and sometimes months, and none of the changes signaled a dramatic broadening of the playing field in favor of the Democrats. For example, three of the Cook changes moved races from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. For most of the cycle, Democratic strategists have been talking about recruiting candidates in 60 competitive districts in their quest to gain 30 seats and win the majority for the first time since 2010. But Democrats currently hold a quarter of the 60 districts on their list, which means that winning those seats in November does nothing to put a dent in the Republican majority, and the universe of takeover targets is

az 1 (open; Kirkpatrick, d)

mN 2 (open; Kline, r)

fl 18 (open; murphy, d)

NH 1 (Guinta, r)

fl 26 (curbelo, r)

NV 3 (open; Heck, r)

ia 3 (young, r)

Ny 22 (open; Hanna, r)

il 10 (dold, r)

Ny 24 (Katko, r)

me 2 (poliquin, r)

tX 23 (Hurd, r)

Toss-Up/Tilt Dem (2r, 2D) Toss-Up/Tilt GOP (3r) IA 1 (Blum, R)

mi 7 (Walberg, r)

Ne 2 (ashford, d)

Ny 1 (zeldin, r)

Ny 3 (open; israel, d)

pa 8 (open; fitzpatrick, r)

NV 4 (Hardy, R)

Lean Democratic (1r)

Lean republican (5r)

FL 13 (Open; Jolly, R)

co 6 (coffman, r) mi 1 (open; benishek, r) Ny 19 (open; Gibson, r) Va 2 (forbes, r) Va 10 (comstock, r)

Democrat Favored (2D)

republican Favored (6r, 1D)

ca 7 (bera, d)

az 2 (mcsally, r)

mN 8 (Nolan, dfl)

ca 21 (Valadao, r) ca 25 (Knight, r) FL 2 (Graham, D) fl 7 (mica, r) NJ 5 (Garrett, r) Wi 8 (open; ribble, r)

Safe Democrat (2r)

Dropped From List

FL 10 (Open; Webster, R) VA 4 (Open; Forbes, R) GOP

DEM

114th congress

247

188

currently safe

219

183

competitive

27

7

Needed for majority

218

Takeovers in Italics # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans

March 25, 2016

r 3

House: Democrats Searching For New Takeover Targets if Republicans had nominated a more mainstream candidate, such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and are not evidence of an anti-Trump wave. Democrats not only face a challenging map but a lack of time, as we wrote in the Jan. 25 issue of the Report. As of March 25, filing deadlines have passed in 22 states (37 percent of House districts, according to Daily Kos Elections), with more on the way. Potential Democratic candidates who think an anti-Trump wave is developing either missed their opportunity or likely need to make up their minds soon, before the GOP presidential nominating process is finalized and direction of the election is clear. The Democrats’ target list has already adjusted accordingly. The party hoped to knock off GOP Reps. Rodney Davis and Mike Bost in Illinois but failed to recruit top challengers by the December filing deadline, and those districts have been removed from their takeover map. The filing deadline has also passed in Pennsylvania, where Democrats need to keep GOP Rep. Ryan Costello and his competitive 6th District in focus. But the party is left with their initial recruit, Mike Parrish, who hasn’t been able to raise money, and 25-year-old Lindy Li, who can raise money but has unproven candidate appeal. Illinois and Pennsylvania were an important part of Democrats’ most recent majority, when the states accounted for a combined 24 Democratic Members. Democrats currently control 15 seats combined in Illinois and Pennsylvania, with a high-water mark of probably 18-19 seats this cycle, which means the party will need to make up for those five seats elsewhere around the country. Depending on the size of the electoral wave, Democrats likely have some work to do to bring their candidates to viability in their targeted races around the country before talk about expanding the field. Of the 44 Republican-held seats Democrats are targeting, 14 have either no Democratic candidate or Democratic candidates with uncertain appeal. In the remaining 30 Republican-held seats, Democrats are often facing incumbents with formidable campaign accounts. As of the end of year, GOP candidates had at least a $500,000 cash-on-hand advantage in 12 districts, a $1 million advantage in four of them, and a $2 million advantage in two districts. Of course, Republican candidates could end up with a problem that money can’t fix (just ask former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush about those). A Democratic partisan wave could develop that is so great that no amount of television ads could save the most vulnerable Republicans. But most GOP incumbents are doing everything in their power to be wellpositioned for the fall and will be difficult to unseat. Democrats have some obvious targets on their list of opportunities, including New York Rep. John Katko, Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, Illinois Rep. Bob Dold and Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who represent districts that President Barack Obama won with over 55 percent in 2012. But other targeted districts are much less favorable and based on scenarios spun by Democratic candidates and party strategists. Democrats believe Rep. Mia Love is vulnerable in Utah’s 4th District after a close race in 2014, unflattering headlines in her first term in office, and a recent round of stories about Trump’s struggles in the state, even though Obama received 30 percent in 2012. Rep. Alex Mooney is allegedly vulnerable in West Virginia’s 2nd District, where Obama received 38 percent, since the congressman’s previous political career

4

March 25, 2016

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

Continued from page 3

was based in Maryland before his election in 2014. Democrats are also targeting Kansas Rep. Kevin Yoder because they believe the Kansas City suburbs in his 3rd District are moving in their favor. Obama lost the district by nearly 10 points, Yoder had nearly $2.2 million in the bank on Dec. 31, and Democrats have a candidate who had less than $5,000 in cash on hand at the same time. The biggest assumption in this entire scenario is that Trump will be a disaster and his downfall will automatically sink Republican efforts to hold the House and the Senate. That’s certainly a possibility, but Trump has proven he doesn’t fit neatly into historical election models. And it’s not guaranteed that people who vote against Trump will blame all Republicans in the same way they would if Republicans nominated a polarizing candidate such as Ted Cruz, who fits the caricature of a tea party Republican casting a narrow vision to conservative voters. Democratic Mia Love chances of taking back the House majority are further complicated by the fact that 18 percent of the party’s most competitive races (9 of 50, including a couple of their own) reside in New York, where Trump’s appeal against former Empire State Sen. Hillary Clinton may be even more unclear. On one hand, Trump’s policies and statements could offend moderate voters and torpedo his chances in the state. On the other hand, he could be a native son whose populist message resonates with voters, particularly Upstate. In spite of all the Democrats’ challenges of the map, looming filing deadlines, and under-funded challengers, Donald Trump’s (and potentially Cruz’s) limited appeal could put the Republican House majority in jeopardy. Even with an anti-Republican wave, Democrats probably still need a couple dozen more districts on the playing field of competitive races to win back the majority. Party strategists are actively trying to identify new takeover targets by focusing on a set of specific demographic groups who could be particularly offended by Trump. But the challenge is to identify those districts with enough time to recruit a challenger and get him or her to a level of credibility necessary to be an alternative to the GOP member. Right now, any Democratic House majority scenario is based on conjecture from presidential ballot tests which show Clinton dominating Trump. Over the next few weeks and months, there will be district-level polling data, which will show how vulnerable Republicans really are and if voters are coupling House Republicans with their presidential nominee. If Democrats win back the House, it will be because of a complete collapse of the Republican Party. If Republicans nominate Trump or Cruz and hold the House, it will likely be because the most vulnerable GOP incumbents planned for competitive races from the beginning of the cycle. At this stage, Democrats look to be headed for significant double-digit gains in the House, but a majority is still out of reach. Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections

Senate Matchups Start to Solidify, But Landscape Unclear By Nathan L. Gonzales

rothenbergGonzales.com

Candidate Conversation Meredith Dake-O‘Connor/CQ Roll Call

The playing field for competitive Senate races could still change and grow, particularly if the bottom falls out of the election for Republicans because of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. But in three of the eight most competitive contests, the general election matchups are set after a series of early primaries. In Ohio, former Gov. Ted Strickland defeated young Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld 65-22 percent in the March 15 Democratic primary setting up a top-tier matchup against GOP Sen. Rob Portman in the general election. We have the race rated Toss-Up/Tilt Republican, and Ohio looks like a must win for Democrats to win back the majority, under fairly normal electoral circumstances. Although the primary result wasn’t particularly close, there was enough concern among Strickland allies to have President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden endorse the former governor before the primary. Early general election polls show Portman and Strickland in a tight race that should be one of the most expensive in the country. In Illinois, Rep. Tammy Duckworth won the Democratic primary with 64 percent against former Chicago Urban League president Andrea Zopp (24 percent) and state Sen. Napoleon Harris (12 percent). Zopp received some national attention for running explicitly against the DSCC, but she didn’t have the resources to compete with or catch up to Duckworth. As a Democrat running statewide in a Democratic state in a presidential year, Duckworth starts the general election as the slight favorite over GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. We have the race rated Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic, but that may be generous to the incumbent. In North Carolina, former state Rep. Deborah Ross won the Democratic primary with 62 percent against three lower-tier candidates. Ross wasn’t Democrats’ first choice, but strategists are trying to craft the former director of the state ACLU chapter into a top-tier opponent to GOP Sen. Richard Burr. We have the race rated Lean Republican. In Arkansas, GOP Sen. John Boozman didn’t have any difficulty winning his primary and now faces former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge in the general election. The Democratic nominee didn’t have a primary and faces an uphill battle in the fall. We have the race rated Currently Safe for Republicans. In each of the early primaries, Democratic strategists got their preferred choice. But it’s remarkable that in Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina, the establishment favorite received between 62 and 65 percent while underfunded candidates received about a third of the vote. The Democratic Party is not immune to anti-establishment forces. The next consequential Senate primaries are about a month away, including the Democratic primaries in Maryland and Pennsylvania on April 26 and the Republican primary in Indiana on May 3. The California primary is on June 7, but two Democrats look likely to advance to the November election. And GOP Rep. Joe Heck is the favorite to win the Nevada Republican primary on June 14, although former Assemblywoman/2010 nominee Sharron Angle filed for the race at the last minute. Then there is a lull in the primary calendar until August 30, when Sen. John McCain faces yet another intra-party challenger in Arizona and both parties have primaries in Florida. GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire faces the latest primary on Sept. 13, followed by a sprint to the general election against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.

Geraldine Thompson (D)

Candidate for Florida’s 10th District Interview Date: March 15, 2016 Date of Birth: Nov. 18, 1948; New Orleans, La. Education: Miami-Dade College (A.A. 1968); Miami Univ. (B.A. 1970); Florida State Univ. (Master’s 1973) Political Office: State Senate; State House (former) Current Outlook: Thompson is a credible contender for a newlyredrawn seat in the Orlando area, formerly represented by GOP Rep. Daniel Webster. Webster chose to run for re-election in the neighboring 11th District since the new map took his formerly Republican-leaning seat and turned it into a strong Democratic district, where Barack Obama received over 60 percent of the vote in the last two presidential races. We have the race rated Safe for Democrats and the fight for the seat will take place in the Aug. 30 Democratic primary. Thompson faces former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, wealthy former state Democratic Party chairman Bob Poe, and attorney Fatima Fahmy. Democratic strategists in Washington are most familiar with Demings from her unsuccessful run against Webster in 2012 and there is little question that Demings is the preferred choice in DC. There is some concern that Thompson and Demings will divide black voters in the primary and allow Poe an easier path to the nomination. Evaluation: As a local elected official for a decade who has been active in the community through her work at Valencia College, Thompson isn’t ceding ground to anyone. When interviewing someone like Thompson, you feel like there is a story behind every line of her bio. She started somewhat guarded, but opened up as we talked about her founding the Wells’ Built Museum of African-American History and Culture, a former Orlando hotel where Jackie Robinson stayed during spring training when he wasn’t allowed to stay at the team hotel, which she saved from demolition. Thompson gets overshadowed by Demings in Washington conversations, but she represents 470,000 people in the state Senate, all of whom are in the 10th District and her husband was a long-time judge in the region. Thompson believes she is the known quantity in the race, but her biggest challenge could be fundraising. The state Senator had just $86,000 in her campaign account on Dec. 31, compared to the $267,000 in Demings’ coffers. Poe, who is gay with an African-American husband, entered the race on Jan. 5, and his March 31 report will be his first, but he is known to have significant personal money. Demings raised and spent nearly $2 million in 2012. Thompson knows she is running against the grain, considering Demings is featured on the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and has been endorsed by EMILY’s List. But Thompson was fun to interview because she is comfortable in her own skin and talks like a candidate who has faced, and beaten, long odds before, including the times she ran for re-election after breaking her leg and foot and being diagnosed with breast cancer.

March 25, 2016

5

Few Surprises (and One Likely New Member) In Early House Primary Results As the presidential race dominates the news coverage, some key House primaries set the stage for the general election or gave us a glimpse at some new Members of the next Congress who are close to securing safe, open seats. We wrote separately about House incumbents surviving primaries including Alabama Republicans Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby, a handful of Texas Republicans, Illinois Rep. John Shimkus and the winner of the special election to replace Speaker John Boehner in Ohio’s 8th District. But those weren’t the only consequential primaries over the last few weeks. Illinois. Former Rep. Brad Schneider defeated Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering 54-46 percent in the Democratic primary to set up a rematch with GOP Rep. Robert Dold in the 10th District, north of Chicago. Schneider defeated Dold in the 2012 general election and Dold came back to defeat Schneider in 2014. In the 1st District, on the South Side in Chicago, Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush won his primary 71-19 percent over Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins Jr., who had support from powerful state Speaker Michael Madigan. I wrote about a handful of Rush’s Congressional Black Caucus colleagues and their primaries in a recent Roll Call story. The Democratic primary in the 8th District likely produced the first freshman Member of the next Congress. Attorney and businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi finished first in the March 21 primary with 57 percent over state Sen. Mike Noland (29 percent) and Villa Park Village President Deb Bullwinkel (14 percent). The Indian-born businessman previously ran unsuccessfully for state comptroller in 2010, losing in the primary, and for Congress in 2012, when he lost the Democratic primary in the 8th District to Tammy Duckworth. When Duckworth left the suburban Chicago seat to challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, Krishnamoorthi seized the opportunity to run again. President Barack Obama received 57 percent in the 8th District in 2012 and 62 percent in 2008. Of course, he is a former senator from Illinois, but Republicans aren’t targeting the seat and Hillary Clinton should do well in the area, considering she grew up just a few miles away in Park Ridge, in the 9th District. Ohio. Democrats tried to promote GOP Rep. David Joyce’s primary opponent as a serious threat to the incumbent in Northeast Ohio’s 14th District in an effort to keep the seat on the general election map. But the congressman defeated Matt Lynch 64.5-35.5 percent, nearly twice the margin as 2014, when the pair squared off in the primary. On the Democratic side, 2014 nominee Michael Wager won the primary with 67 percent, setting up a rematch from last cycle. Joyce won that race 63-33 percent, in a great Republican year. But the congressman starts the general election in a strong position. Joyce had $550,000 in the bank on Feb. 24 compared to less than $5,000 for Wager. Democrats are desperately trying to keep Joyce and 6th District Rep. Bill Johnson on their list of takeover targets. But while Wager doesn’t have the money to take advantage of a wave, Johnson’s opponent doesn’t appear to have reached the minimum threshold to have to file with the Federal Election Commission. Both seats are still Safe for Republicans.

6

March 25, 2016

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

By Nathan L. Gonzales North Carolina. While voters in the Tar Heel State made their preference known in the presidential and Senate primaries, the House primaries were pushed back after the court ordered the map to be redrawn. The filing deadline is now March 25, with a June 7 primary. The runoff provision was suspended for this cycle. The 2nd District is one of the top races to watch where GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers is in the fight of her life. Initially, before the lines were redrawn, the congresswoman’s main challenger was former Chatham County Republican Chairman Jim Duncan, who has been endorsed by the Club for Growth. But Ellmers drew more challengers when the new lines came out, with fellow Rep. George Holding leaving his 13th District to run for re-election in the 2nd District. Then Greg Brannon, who just lost a primary challenge to Sen. Richard Burr, decided to run in the House primary. Renee Ellmers In the 12th District, Democratic Alma Adams faces a difficult primary after she found her home 90 miles outside of the district’s new lines. She faces former state Sen. Malcolm Graham, whom she defeated in the 2014 primary, state Rep. Rodney Moore and others in the primary. The seat is safely Democratic. Holding’s decision leaves the 13th District open for a Republican primary battle between state Sen. Andrew Brock, state Rep. John Blust, former Winston-Salem city councilman Vernon Robinson and others. Robinson is a frequent candidate and a notoriously negative campaigner. The seat should be Safe for Republicans. Texas. Large fields of candidates battled on March 1 in a pair of safe open seats. Democrats are jockeying to replace retiring Rep. Ruben Hinojosa in the 15th District in South Texas while Republicans are looking to replace retiring Rep. Randy Neugebauer in the 19th District in West Texas. In the 15th, attorney and former congressional intern Vicente Gonzalez finished well ahead of the pack with 42 percent and will face Edinburg School Board Member Juan “Sonny” Palacios Jr., who finished second with 19 percent, in the May 24 runoff. On election night, EMILY’s List prematurely sent out an email congratulating former Hidalgo County Democratic Party Chairwoman Dolly Elizondo on being one step closer to becoming the first Latina elected to Congress in state history. But she finished third with 17 percent in the six-candidate field. While Gonzalez finished well short of 50 percent, Palacios has some considerable ground to make up in the next two months and is likely to be outspent. Palacios spent $177,000 on the race through Feb. 10 compared to $709,000 for Gonzalez, who contributed $1 million of his own money to the campaign. Palacios is banking on low turnout.

Continued on page 7

Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections

Seats

Incumbent

az-1

Kirkpatrick (d)

az-5

salmon (r)

ca-20

farr (d)

ca-24

capps (d)

ca-44

Hahn (d)

ca-46

sanchez (d)

de atlarge fl-6

carney (d)

fl-9

Grayson (d)

fl-10

Webster (r)

fl-13

Jolly (r)

fl-18

murphy (d)

Ga-3

Westmoreland (r)

il-8

duckworth (d)

iN-3

stutzman (r)

iN-9

young (r)

Ky-1

Whitfield (R)

la-3

boustany (r)

la-4

fleming (r)

md-4

edwards (d)

md-8

Van Hollen (d)

desantis (r)

2016 House Open Seats

Presidential Winner 2012 2008 2004 romney 50.4% romney 64% obama 70.9% obama 54.1% obama 84.7% obama 61.4% obama 58.6% romney 57.2% obama 55.6% obama 60.7% obama 54.6% romney 51.4% romney 65.9% obama 57.4% romney 62.5% romney 57.2% romney 66.4% romney 66.1% romney 59% obama 78.3% obama 62.0%

mccain 51% mccain 63% obama 72.2% obama 56.8% obama 83.8% obama 58.7% obama 61.9% mccain 50% obama 54.6% obama 60.9% obama 55.5% obama 51.2% mccain 64.7% obama 61.5% mccain 56% mccain 52.6% mccain 61.6% mccain 65% mccain 59.5% obama 77.4% obama 63.1%

bush 50.2% bush 64% Kerry 66% Kerry 50.5% Kerry 76.2% bush 51.9% Kerry 53.4% N/a

benishek (r)

mi-10

miller (r)

mN-2

Kline (r)

NV-3

Heck (r)

Ny-3

israel (d)

Ny-13

rangel (d)

Ny-19

Gibson (r)

Ny-22

Hanna (r)

N/a

Nc-13

Holding (r)

N/a

pa-8

fitzpatrick (r)

N/a

pa-16

pitts (r)

N/a

tN-8

fincher (r)

bush 70.1% Kerry 51.3% bush 67.4% bush 61.8% bush 63.2% bush 61.1% bush 59% Kerry 70.6% Kerry 58.1%

tX-15

Hinojosa (d)

tX-19

Neugebauer (r)

Va-4

forbes (r)

Va-5

Hurt (r)

Wa-7

mcdermott (d)

Wi-8

ribble (r)

Wy atlarge

lummis (r)

The winner of the Democratic runoff will be a Member of Congress next year. The district voted for Barack Obama twice with 57 percent, and Latinos make up about 80 percent of the voting age population. In the 19th District, Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson and former Texas Tech Vice Chancellor Jodey Arrington are facing off in the May 24 runoff after finishing in the top two in the primary Robertson slightly outpaced Arrington 26.7-26 percent, a margin of

rothenbergGonzales.com

2

January 11, 2013

Incumbent

mi-1

House Results (Continued) Continued from page 6

Seats

Presidential Winner 2012 2008 2004 romney 53.6% romney 55.3% obama 49.1% obama 49.5% obama 51.3% obama 94.6% obama 52.1% romney 49.2% romney 53.4% romney 49.4% romney 52.4% romney 66.1% obama 57.4% romney 73.6% obama 60.9% romney 53.8% obama 79.2% romney 51.3% romney 68.6%

obama 49.7% mccain 50.1% obama 50.4% obama 53.5% obama 52.9% obama 93.2% obama 52.4% mccain 48.6% mccain 51.6% obama 53.2% obama 49.9% mccain 64.2% obama 57.3% mccain 71.2% obama 60.1% mccain 52.2% obama 80.1% obama 53.7% mccain 64.8%

bush 54.9% bush 56.3% bush 51.4% bush 52.1% Kerry 53.7% Kerry 89.1% bush 50.0% bush 52.6% bush 58.5% Kerry 50.2% bush 59.4% bush 63.1% bush 53.6% bush 76.9% N/a N/a Kerry 75.8% bush 55% bush 68.9%

Competive Seats Shaded in Gray

about 800 votes, while Michael Bob Starr finished third with 21 percent in the nine-candidate field. Robertson is mayor of the largest city in the district (population 244,000) and is a former Ransom Canyon city alderman. Arrington worked in President George W. Bush’s White House, is president of a healthcare technology company and ran unsuccessfully for the state senate in 2014. This is the region where Bush ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 1978, and this seat has no chance of falling into Democratic hands. Mitt Romney won 74 percent in the 19th in 2012 and John McCain took 71 percent four years earlier. March 25, 2016

7

A NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN POLITICS AND ELECTIONS

Illinois 15: Shimkus Escapes Primary Challenge With Decisive Victory in Downstate District By Nathan L. Gonzales

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

8

March 25, 2016

square miles, which made it difficult for McCarter to raise his name identification. Shimkus deserves credit for pushing back a potentially credible primary challenge. But it should still be slightly discomforting to the congressman for next cycle or his colleagues later this cycle, that underfunded and inferior candidates continue to attract large chunks of voters.

Candidate Conversation Monica Vernon (D)

Candidate for Iowa’s 1st District Interview Date: March 22, 2016 Date of Birth: Oct. 19, 1957; F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Cheyenne, Wyo. Education: Univ. of Iowa (B.A. 1980, MBA 1999); Political Office: Cedar Rapids City Council; 2014 1st District candidate Current Outlook: Vernon is a top contender for the Democratic nomination and the right to face GOP Rep. Rod Blum in the general election. Blum is a top Democratic target in a northeast Iowa district that Barack Obama won with 56 percent in 2012 and 58 percent in 2008. But Vernon must get by 2014 nominee Pat Murphy, the former speaker of the state House, who is running again. Last cycle, Murphy won the nomination 37-24 percent over Vernon in a five-candidate field. She subsequently lost a bid for lieutenant governor in 2014 on a ticket with the Democratic gubernatorial nominee to cap off the cycle. One of the lessons Vernon apparently learned from 2014 is that campaigns need time to build, and she jumped into this race in Jan. 2015. The field grew when former Saturday Night Live actor Gary Kroeger jumped into the race and Murphy decided to run again. But Kroeger decided to run for the Legislature instead and has endorsed Vernon. Evaluation: For someone with two recent losses Vernon was upbeat and optimistic, even if it meant veering into talk about building relationships and coalitions from time to time. She has more support than last cycle, including EMILY’s List and improved fundraising, and a fresh attack against Murphy, as someone who had their chance. Murphy can be a polarizing figure, even among Democrats who believe he shouldn’t have let the seat fall into GOP hands last cycle. But Murphy will continue to attack Vernon for being a former Republican and not true to liberal causes. Vernon admits she has not been a lifelong Democrat but claims to be a progressive. If Vernon, who was college roommates with long-time Democratic activist and organizer Teresa Vilmain, can consolidate the anti-Murphy vote from 2014, then she can secure the nomination. The Democratic nominee will start as the favorite against Blum, particularly if the bottom falls out of the election for the GOP. If Democrats can’t defeat Blum, it’s going to be a long Election Night for their party. Al Drago/CQ Roll Call

With a nearly 20-year record in Congress and a mediocre rating with the Club for Growth, it’s not surprising that Illinois Republican John Shimkus drew a primary challenger in this political environment. But like the rest of his colleagues thus far in the cycle, the congressman prevailed. While anti-establishment favorites Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz combined for 69 percent statewide in the Land of Lincoln, Shimkus defeated state Sen. Kyle McCarter, 6040 percent, Downstate in the 15th District. While it may look like a vote of confidence in Shimkus, local GOP sources say McCarter missed an opportunity. The congressman is a longtime Member who will never be mistaken for a movement conservative. He has a lifetime 66 percent rating with the Club for Growth, but his grade fell to 34 percent in 2014. The term-limited state senator’s bid didn’t come as a surprise to subscribers since we first mentioned McCarter in the August 21 issue and wrote more about the race on Oct. 6. Some local Republicans believe Shimkus would have been more vulnerable against a stronger opponent who could have exposed the congressman’s weaknesses. They said the challenger didn’t appear to have much of an organization, didn’t make an appearance at multiple Lincoln Day dinners, and didn’t raise that much money. Through Feb. John Shimkus 24, McCarter spent about $200,000 compared to about $1.5 million for Shimkus. “I really think he just thought a bunch of outside money would come in and do his work for him,” according to the GOP source. “I know there was a lot of frustration regarding his lack of effort and organizing.” The Club spent at least $270,000 in February on independent television ads, but went dark (stopped airing television ads) in the final weeks as the group appeared to focus on other races. The Club’s endorsed candidate won the special election to replace John Boehner on the same day, not too far away, in Ohio’s 8th District with the help of $1 million in Club spending. “People are very tired of John but they either don’t know Kyle or they do know him…and to know him is to not like him,” the source added. “I believe Trump would define Kyle as ‘low-energy.’” Shimkus also may have benefited from the old Machiavellian motto, “It is safer to be feared than loved,” as potential McCarter supporters paused before opposing the Downstate kingmaker. The incumbent also benefited from representing a district that spans nearly 15,000

Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections

Survivors: Early Success Doesn’t Guarantee Future Victory

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

Kirk’s races, the average is still 68 percent. That’s the good news. The bad news for the so-called “establishment?” Candidates with far fewer resources and institutional support are garnering a minimum of 30 percent of the primary vote without hardly breaking a sweat. What’s less clear this year is whether anti-establishment voters are skipping the down-ballot races after voting for Trump or Cruz, or crossing over to support incumbents in Senate and House contests. The answer appears to be something closer to the latter scenario. Fewer voters participated in the Senate primary compared to the presidential primary in the first five states with a vulnerable senator, but by varying margins. For example, turnout was down by about 13 percent between the presidential and Senate primaries in Alabama — a difference of over 100,000 votes. Turnout was also down by 13 percent in Illinois and 21 percent in Ohio. But turnout was down between the two races by a much narrower 5 percent in Arkansas and 2 percent in North Carolina. These senators did not win without some Trump and Cruz supporters. That doesn’t mean anti-establishment presidential primary voters are in love with their incumbents. They just may not have been familiar enough with the alternatives to throw their Members out of office. The success of the senators could also be a function of the high bar to gaining statewide name identification, but House Republicans are hanging on as well, as Byrne and Roby demonstrated. In Texas, at least six House Republicans were thought to be in some primary trouble on March 1, particularly with native son Cruz on the ballot. Not only did all of them win, but all of them cleared 50 percent and avoided a potentially dangerous runoff. Louie Gohmert won the 1st District primary with 82 percent, Joe Barton won the 6th with 69 percent, and John Culberson won the 7th with 57 percent. Kevin Brady Martha Roby came the closest to the threshold with 53 percent in the 8th District. Blake Farenthold is perpetually underestimated, but he received 56 percent in the 27th. And former NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions received 61 percent in his 32nd District. None of the Texas challengers had support from significant outside groups, such as the Club for Growth. But the Club did endorse state Sen. Kyle McCarter against Rep. John Shimkus in Illinois’s 15th District. Local sources believe McCarter had an opportunity, but didn’t do the work necessary to knock off an incumbent, and the congressman prevailed 60-40 percent. Also on March 15, there was some buzz about Rep. David Joyce’s primary challenger in Ohio’s 14th District. But the congressman won renomination 65-35 percent. Similar to the dynamic on the Senate side, the potentially vulnerable House incumbents won their primaries with an average of 63 percent. rothenbergGonzales.com

But once again, the bad news for the so-called establishment candidates is that most of the challengers were significantly underfunded and still received at least a third of the vote. Of course just because an incumbent has yet to lose, doesn’t mean the rest are invincible. There aren’t too many more GOP senators left who could get tripped up in the primary, although Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire is getting squeezed from both sides of the ideological spectrum. The senator faces a competitive general election against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan but also a primary challenge from former state Sen. Jim Rubens. Even though Ayotte could have interjected herself into the Granite State’s presidential primary in February, the Senator chose not to endorse a candidate. Choosing one would have alienated supporters of a dozen other presidential contenders and could have complicated her primary. Even though she’s still favored to be renominated, it’s a race Ayotte can avoid and the political landscape could shift dramatically

Continued on page 10

Candidate Conversation Angie Craig (DFL)

Candidate for Minnesota’s 2nd District Interview Date: March 22, 2016 Date of Birth: Feb. 14, 1972; West Helena, Ark. Education: Memphis State Univ. (B.A. 1994) Political Office: None; First run for office Current Outlook: Craig is the presumptive DFL nominee in the competitive seat left open by retiring GOP Rep. John Kline after Democrat Mary Lawrence dropped out of the race. The 2nd District, located outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, voted for Barack Obama 51-48 percent in 2008 but by a much narrower 49.1-49 percent four years later. Republicans have a crowded and competitive contest which could result in a polarizing nominee (former radio talk show host Jason Lewis, who has years of inflammatory remarks that Democrats will exploit). Evaluation: Democratic strategists are very high on Craig and she appears to be worth the hype. She was both personable and poised, particularly for a first-time candidate, with a hint of a Southern accent. She talked openly about her family structure (she has a wife and four boys) and would be the first openly LGBT mother elected to Congress, but she is not running as an activist. Craig plans to talk about and use her family in the same way any candidate would. Craig will try to inoculate herself from GOP attacks that she is too liberal by focusing on her work at St. Jude Medical Center and in the medical technology industry. But this could be a fascinating race between two candidates on either side of the ideological spectrum in a swing seat. You can read our full analysis of the race in the Feb. 19 issue. Craig looks like she could be a rising star in the party, but she’s got to win this race first. Al Drago/CQ Roll Call

Continued from page 1

March 25, 2016

9

Continued from page 9

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

before the Sept. 13 primary. It’s also a long way until Arizona’s primary on Aug. 30, giving former state Sen. Kelli Ward time to convince outside groups to help her knock off Sen. John McCain. Or another challenger has until June 1 to file for the race. The Wisconsin Senate primary isn’t until August 9, but incumbent Ron Johnson isn’t likely to face a serious intra-party challenger. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski could have a competitive primary a week later but looks more likely to be challenged by a third-party candidate. The Pennsylvania primary is a month from now, but Sen. Pat Toomey doesn’t have an opponent. He endorsed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earlier in the presidential race. For now, not only are Republican incumbents surviving primaries, but John McCain GOP strategists are promoting higher turnout as a potential silver lining to the Republican civil war. For example, over 700,000 more people cast ballots in the Republican presidential primary (and nearly 500,000 more in the Republican Senate primary) compared to the Democratic contests in Ohio, which is a mustwin state in November up and down the ballot. But primary turnout is not a good predictor of general election success. As Harry Enten wrote recently for FiveThirtyEight, the last six times when both parties had a competitive presidential primary, the party with the higher primary turnout won the popular vote in the general election just half of the time. There is still a chance Trump or Cruz could cause headaches for GOP incumbents in remaining primaries. And if they don’t cause headaches in primaries, there could be migraines for Republican Members in the general election. But thus far, the lack of incumbents being thrown out of office in the face of an agitated, anti-establishment presidential vote is just another surprising part of a volatile election.

caLENDar 2016

April 3

major league baseball opening day

April 5

Wisconsin presidential primaries

April 8-9

colorado republican conventions

April 19

New york presidential primaries

April 26

connecticut, delaware, maryland, pennsylvania, rhode island presidential primaries

April 26

maryland & pennsylvania senate primaries

May 3

indiana primaries (president and senate)

May 10 Nebraska & West Virginia presidential primaries May 17

Candidate Conversation Meredith Dake-O‘Connor/CQ Roll Call

Primary Losses (Continued)

Mark Hunt (D)

Candidate for West Virginia’s 2nd District Interview Date: March 3, 2016 Date of Birth: Jan. 23, 1960 (Charleston, W.V.) Education: Univ. of Charleston (B.A. 1982); Marshall Univ. (Master’s 1984); Univ. of District of Columbia (J.D. 1993)

Political Office: State Delegate (former) Current Outlook: Hunt is a credible contender for the Democratic nomination in the central West Virginia district, currently represented by Republican Alex Mooney. Mooney won the open seat in a close race in 2014 when GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito left to run for the U.S. Senate. Democrats are still disturbed by the loss, considering Mooney was a former state Legislator across the border in Maryland, where he was also state party chairman, before he moved to West Virginia and ran for Congress. Even though Barack Obama received a whopping 38 percent of the vote in the 2nd in the 2012 presidential race, Democrats are desperate to keep the seat on their map of takeover targets. They have no love for Mooney and believe 2014 was about Obama, and Republicans had plenty of evidence tying their nominee, Nick Casey, to the unpopular president. Not long before the Jan. 26 filing deadline, Democrats recruited attorney Cory Simpson, a West Virginia native living in Silver Spring, Maryland and working at the Pentagon to run in the 2nd District. Simpson’s wife is an active duty Army doctor completing her residency at Walter Reed National Medical Center, also in the Washington, D.C. area. But someone forgot to tell Hunt that Simpson is the preferred choice, because the former delegate is running and looks like a serious contender in the May 10 primary. Evaluation: Hunt has had some difficulty reaching above the state House. He ran unsuccessfully for the state Senate in 2000 and unsuccessfully for the 2nd District once before in 2006, when he lost in the Democratic primary. But his experience in elected office probably helped him in our interview, where he was warm and personable. As a long-time elected official in the area (he’s been in the office for about 15 years over a couple stints in the Legislature), Hunt can’t grasp why some Democrats prefer Simpson or how the political newcomer is going to win the primary. Hunt likely starts the race with some name identification advantage, the ability to invest significant personal money into the race, and has the endorsement of Casey, the party’s 2014 nominee. The campaign’s IVR poll from the middle of February showed Hunt with 49 percent in an initial primary ballot test compared to 8 percent for Simpson. Three other candidates combined for 42 percent, but none of them had more than 16 percent. The former state Delegate wasn’t angry in our interview but I think internally agitated by Mooney’s election and talk of Simpson. In his mind, Hunt plans to defeat two candidates from Maryland this year. It’s not hard to see Hunt winning the primary, but the general election will be a much tougher race. Hunt doesn’t have the same connections to Obama as Casey, but the economically distressed district with a minority population of less than 8 percent is the type of place where Donald Trump’s message could resonate.

oregon presidential primaries

May 24 Washington republican presidential primary 10 March 25, 2016

Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections