GLOBAL WARMING AND THE BLUE ECONOMY: CHALLENGES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS Abstract Dr Anton Lucas. Adjunct Associate Professor, Flinders Asia Centre, Flinders University of South Australia

Based on the last report in September 2013 IPCC (Panel antar Pemerintah Mengenai Perubahan Iklim), global warming is one of reality which is faced by the whole of economic sectors including fisheries and marines. The increasing temperature in global warming and the amount of carbon dioxide at atmosphere, we will get a lot of rain but it is not in every place beside that increasing the water on the sea surface level, reducing the surface of the snow, melting the glacier and at Antarctic continent which is warm according to the IPCC. It is identified which is bigger in result. It will simplify and the last IPCC, it is connecting with globalization, the understanding of climate for the fisherman and it relevance with the “Blue Economy” There are two things of Blue Economy which is controversial In the International Seminar terms of reference; the concept of Blue Economy is as follow: • “Blue Economy in the marine and fisheries sectors is a concept that aims to boost economic growth and ensure sustainability of both coastal and ocean resources” • In the summary of the seminar says “Marine and fisheries industries of the world are driven by globalization and free trade” There are some questions on understanding about it. • Is there the growth of Blue Economy in the contextual of globalization in the sustainability of the fisheries growth? • Is the concept of Blue Economy able to guarantee the /sustainability ecosystem and ocean resources in the future? • What is the effect of global warming with the ocean’s ecosystem? Gunter Pauli’s idea about the Blue Economy as follow • • •

Gunter Pauli offers the concept of ‘Blue Economy’ as the sustainability economic solution as the fisheries and ocean industry. The basic concept of Blue Economy Is the global warming as the challenge or the problem?

The latest data about the global warming •

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) government’s Panel for the climate change. Fifth Assessment Report climate Change2013

Summary for Policymakers http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

Table SPM 1 [Summary for Policy Makers] • Extreme weather and climate events: The table shows the 7 climate change in the global, it is happened since the human’s behaviour and the changing of the future. IPCC approach and modelling • In its own reports, the IPCC not only laid out clearly the range of scenarios it had investigated, but got increasingly specific about whether the consensus of experts judged a given impact to be “unlikely” "likely," “more likely than not” , "very likely," “extremely likely’ (= 95% confidence level /absolute) or "virtually certain." • Perhaps it’s not happened, perhaps it’s happened or it is absolutely going to be happened, or almost happened. • IPCC uses ‘low confidence’, ‘medium confidence’ and ‘high confidence’ that something is “more likely than not” to happen • The IPCC is preoccupied with impacts that were more likely than not to occur. • The modeling is not the truth but the prediction. The changing climate of the world • •

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal (tak ambigu, jelas sekali ) and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented (belum pernah terjadi) over decades to millenia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished , sea level has risen, and the concentration of greenhouse gases have increased” (SPM hal 2)

Pemanasan Udara (Atmosphere) • •

Each of the last three decades has successively warmer at the earth’s surface than any preceeding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983-2013 was likely the warmest 30 year period of the last 1400 years” (SPM hal 3)

Dampak pemanasan bumi terhadap laut • •

As some 90% of the global heat rise is trapped in the oceans, the ocean heat level reflects global warming more accurately than land and atmosphere warming. The heat content of the ocean has risen since about 2000 by about 4x1022 joules The heat content of the upper layers of the world's oceans is the most comprehensive measure of changes in the temperature of the planet (the oceans contain far more of any new heat added than the thin atmosphere)

Ocean warming • “Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). • It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0-700m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 and it is likely warmed between the 1880s and 1971” (SPM page 6) The prediction of ocean • •

“The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation” (SPP page 22) “Global mean sea level will continue to rise…due to increased ocean warming loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets” (SPP page 23)

The rate of sea level rise • •

“The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19thy century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901-to 2010 global mean (average) sea level rose by 0.19 (0.17 to 0.2)m” One of the most dangerous climate which is very widen and“irreversible” (James Hansen 2009 : 144)

The melting Gleitsers •

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“Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence = 95% likely)” SPP page 9) It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and Northern Hemisphere snow cover will decrease as global mean surface temperature rises (SPP page 22)

The real fossil fuel “The atmospheric concentrations of C02, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20), have increased to levels unprecedented at least the last 800,000 years. • C02 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times [1750], primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondly from net land use change emissions. • The oceans have absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification” (SPP page 9) There are two effects of arctic sea: • •

The changing climate which support the global warming that has a dangerous effect for the sea ecosystem. Coral bleaching case is happened in the whole of the world meanwhile in Indonesia as the central of coral species.

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Coral bleaching is happened because of increasing the sea temperature since organism of zooxantella (algae) which is living and having the animal symbiosis that is out and the coral will be broken.

The arctic effects are: The highly changed of carbon dioxide in the air will change the pH level of the sea water that breaks the coral development. (The broken reef since there is an improving water temperature will influence the organism of coral reef and also the fish which is the economical source for human being.) The acid effect disturbs the reproduction of some species and the other animal’s ability is called calcify to create the cover and the skeleton of calcium carbonate Prof Drf Jamaluddin Jopa, COREMAP Coral Reef Rehabilitation Management Program The Definition of radiative forcing in global warming IPCC SPM uses radiative forcing’ (RF) to measure the radiation of GKR (RF). RF is identified as the different radiation energy which is accepted by the earth and reflected back to the space. The bigger RF will be bigger the energy which is staying and warming the system up. • “Total radiative forcing is positive and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system the largest contribution to radiative forcing is CO2 The influence human behaviour in global warming • • • • • •

“Human influence has been detected in the following warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, In reductions in snow and ice, In global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominate cause of the observed warming since the mid -20th Century” (SPM page 15)

The Definition cycle of hydrology at atmosphere •

The increasing temperature had fasten the hydrology cycle. Atmosphere yang lebih hangat akan menyimpan lebih banyak uap air, yang akan menghasilkan lebih banyak hujan lebat. Panas yang lebih besar juga juga mempercepat proces evaporasi (Climate Ghange at a Glance)

Prediksi masa depan • •

Atmospheric water cycle (siklus hidrologi di atmosfer) “Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase…” (SPP hal 18)

Perubahan iklim jangka panjang • • • • • •

At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones

Dampak pemanasan global terhadap kesehatan penduduk • • • • • •

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change Lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socioeconomic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance.

Gejala PB (Pemanasan Bumi) dan perubahan habitat satwa alam • • •

In the late 1990s, field surveys of sensitive and well-studied groups like birds and butterflies found them measurably shifting their ranges, or even facing extinction, in just the ways that could be predicted from the observed warming Another example: bark beetles, no longer controlled by winter freezes, devastated millions of acres of forests from Alaska to Arizona, leaving the weakened timber prey to an unprecedented outbreak of forest fires Apakah ikan tangkap akan pindah dari laut tropis ke utara dan ke selatan?

Prediksi pengeringan di tahun 2060s • • •

Projected drought conditions in the 2060s. Conditions of -4 (dark red) or worse represent dust-bowl creation. "Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20-50 years

Dampak dari pemanasan bumi terhadap lingkungan kelautan •

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Keadaan biota perairan saat ini (yang diketahui), 111 species terancam punah: ikan, 20 spesies; kerang, 36 spesies; udang dan kepiting 35, spesies; tripang 6 spesies; amfibi dan reptil 12 spesies; Menurut Fishbase 144 spesies ikan bersirip di Indonesia yang terancam punah Keadaan biota laut menjamin masa depan keanekaragam hayati Keadaan keanekaragaman hayati (bidoversity) menjamin keberlanjutan sumber daya perikanan produktivitas perikanan dan kuntungan usaha kelautan (Blue Economy ) tergantung pada biota laut, keanekaragaman hayati, dan keberlanjutan sumber daya perikanan

“Hot spot” keaneka ragaman hayati •

Bambu laut (Isis hippuris) merupakan komoditas ekspor untuk bahan herbal, obat obatan, kosmetik, dan perhiasan yang permintaanya cukup tinggi. Untuk mendapatkan

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potensi produksinya maka perlu dilakukan penelitian. Sehingga eksploitasinya tidak merusak populasi bambu laut itu sendiri. Hasil Survei Status Populasi dan Pemanfaatan Biota Bambu Laut di Perairan Konawe-Sulawesi Tenggara

Bambu laut (Isis hippuris) merupakan komoditas ekspor untuk bahan herbal, obat obatan, kosmetik, dan perhiasan yang permintaanya cukup tinggi. Untuk mendapatkan potensi produksinya maka perlu dilakukan penelitian. Sehingga eksploitasinya tidak merusak populasi bambu laut itu sendiri. Hasil Survei Status Populasi dan Pemanfaatan Biota Bambu Laut di Perairan Konawe-Sulawesi Tenggara