GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEAFOOD DEMAND, SUPPLY, TRADE AND PRICES

GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEAFOOD DEMAND, SUPPLY, TRADE AND PRICES by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Sta...
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GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEAFOOD DEMAND, SUPPLY, TRADE AND PRICES

by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Service

Woods Hole, 24-25 May 2011

Outline • • • • • • •

Overview Production Utilization Consumption Trade Prices Outlook

Overview: last two decade • Increase in global aquaculture production • Rising demand for fish and fishery products • Growth in world trade of fish and fishery products • Global call for responsible management

World fishery production million tonnes 150 120 Aquaculture

90 60

Capture

30 0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

World fishery production million tonnes

150

120

Aquaculture (marine waters)

90

Aquaculture (inland waters)

60

Capture (inland waters)

30

0 1950

Capture (marine waters)

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

World fishery production million tonnes

2009 Production

2010 e 2011f 2011/ 2010

144.6

145.1

149.0

2.7%

Capture

88.9

87.0

88.5

1.8%

Aquaculture

55.7

58.1

60.4

4.0%

e: estimation; f: forecast

Capture fishery production by continent/region million tonnes 100

Oceania 75

Central America and Caribbean Northern America

50 Africa South America 25 Europe

0 1950

Asia 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

2009 Capture: top producers China 17%

Others 47%

Peru 8%

Indonesia 6% USA 5% India Japan 5% Chile Russian 4% 4% Federation

Capture fishery production by ISSCAAP division million tonnes

100 Miscellaneous aquatic animals

75

Diadromous fishes Crustaceans 50 Molluscs Freshwater fishes

25

Marine fishes 0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

2009 Capture by species groups Shrimps, prawns 4%

Other marine fishes 32%

Squids, cuttlefishes, octopuses Bivalves 4% 2% Other crustaceans Other molluscs 3% 1%

Miscellaneous aquatic animals 0.5%

Freshwater fishes Salmons, trouts, 10% smelts 1% Other diadromous 1% Tunas, bonitos, billfishes 7%

Other pelagics 35%

Global trends in the status of marine stocks

Aquaculture production by continent/region million tonnes

60

Oceania Central America and Caribbean

40

Northern America Africa South America

20

Europe Asia

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

2009 Aquaculture: top producers Others 15%

Chile 1% Norway 2% Bangladesh 2% Thailand 3% Indonesia 3% Viet Nam 5% India 7%

China 62%

Aquaculture production by ISSCAAP division million tonnes

60 Miscellaneous aquatic animals Marine fishes 40 Diadromous fishes Crustaceans 20

Molluscs Freshwater fishes

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

2009 Aquaculture by species groups Other molluscs 3% Squids, cuttlefishes, octopuses 0.0%

Miscellaneous aquatic animals 1%

Bivalves 22%

Other crustaceans 3% Freshwater fishes 56%

Shrimps, prawns 6%

Other marine fishes Other pelagics 3% 0.4% Tunas, bonitos, billfishes Other diadromous 0.0% 2%

Salmons, trouts, smelts 4%

China Capture

Aquaculture

100

60

75 40

50 20

25

0 1950

1970

1990

World excluding China

2009

China

0 1950

1970

1990

2009

Annual growth rate %12 10

8

6

Capture

4

Aquaculture

2

0 1960-1969 -2

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

Annual growth rate Aquaculture vs agriculture 2000-2009

Meat Milk Eggs

1990-1999

Cereals Fruit

1980-1989

Vegetables Aquaculture 1970-1979

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 %

Annual growth rate Aquaculture vs meat %

12 10

Aquaculture

8

Poultry Meat

6

Meat, Total 4

Sheep and Goat Meat 2

Beef and Buffalo Meat 0 1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

Utilization of fish production and per capita fish supply Fish production Per capita fish supply (kg)

(million tonnes)

150

18.0 Fish for human consumption

125

15.0

Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply

100

12.0

75

9.0

50

6.0

25

3.0

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0.0 2010

Share of utilization of fish production 100%

80%

60%

Fish for human consumption

40%

Non-food uses 20%

0% 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Utilization of fish production breakdown by quantity Non-food uses

Curing

Canning

Freezing

Marketing fresh 0

10

20

30

40

50 60 Million tonnes

Fish as food • Important role in food security • Source of proteins, minerals, micronutrients and essential fatty acids • 118 million tonnes • 17.2 kg/capita • 47% from aquaculture

Per capita fish supply: contribution of capture and aquaculture 100%

75% Capture

50% Aquaculture

25%

0% 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Per capita fish supply

Per capita fish supply World

17.2

Africa

8.4

Asia

18.8

Europe

22.1

North America

24

Latin America

9.6

Oceania

25.5

Industrialized

28.7

Developed

24.3

Least Developed

10.3

Other developing

16.3

LIFDCs

9.1 0

5

10

15

kg/capita

20

25

30

Per capita fish supply by groups of species Aquatic animals, others Cephalopods Marine fish, other Crustaceans

2007 1987

Molluscs, excl. cephalopods

1967 Demersal fish Pelagic fish Freshwater and diadromous fish

0

1

2

3

kg/capita

4

5

6

Nutritional standards • Increase of the per capita food consumption • Improvement of nutritional standards since 1970 • Change in global dietary patterns • Increase in the average global calorie supply • Growth of the quantity of proteins, in particular for emerging economies

Food consumption • • • • •

Rising living standards Population growth Rapid urbanization Increased trade Transformation in food distribution, transportation, marketing • Improvement in food science, technology • Value-added products • More developed economies less reactive to income growth compared to low-income countries

Fish consumption in industrialized countries • • • • •

Diversification in the diets Health and diet conscious Value addition Ready-to-cook, ready-to-eat More fish in fresh form

Protein supply g/capita

120

Total proteins Meat and offals Eggs

Vegetable proteins Milk / dairy products

Animal proteins Fish

100 80 60 40 20 0 World

Africa

North America

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Fish contribution to animal protein supply (2005-2007)

Share of production traded million tonnes 150

120

90

Production 60

Exports

30

0 1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006 2009

Trade by groups of species (value) Meals 3%

Oils 2%

Shrimps, prawns 15%

Other finfish 27%

Other crustaceans 6% Other molluscs aquatic invert 5%

Salmons, trouts, smelts 12%

Cods, hakes, haddocks 10% Squids, cuttlefishes, Other pelagics octopuses 7% 4%

Tuna 9%

Fish exports USD billion

120

100

Central America Oceania

80

Africa 60 Northern America 40

South America Asia

20 Europe 0 1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006 2010

2009: Top exporters (value) China       12% Other 52%

Norway       8% Thailand   7% USA       5%

Viet Nam   4% Chile       Canada      4% 3% Peru       Indonesia    2% 3%

Net exports developing countries USD billion

25 20 1987

1997

2007

15 10 5 0 -5

Fish

Coffee

Rubber

Bananas

Cocoa

Meat

Tea

Sugar

Tobacco

Rice

Fish imports USD billion

120 Central America

100

Oceania 80

South America

60

Africa

40

Northern America Asia

20 Europe 0 1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2010

2009: Top importers (value) Other 48.4%

USA 14.1% Japan 13.6%

China 5.7% France 5.4% Korea Rep 2.9% Canada Russian Fed China,H.Kong UK 2.1% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1%

Trends in trade • 7% decline in 2009, followed by growth of 11% in 2010 • 2010 imports estimated ad USD 110 billion and exports at USD 105 billion • Positive 2011 • Wide range of product types and participants • Increased fishery trade within regions • Growing imports among/from developing countries

Africa

Imports in USD million

Asia

Imports in USD million

Oceania

Imports in USD million

Europe

Imports in USD million

South America

Imports in USD million

North and Central America

Imports in USD million

US fish imports in 2010 Value Central America&Caribb ean 7%

Oceania 2%

Africa 1%

Europe 9% South America 12% Asia 54%

North America 15%

US fish imports in 2010 Value China 14% Others 34%

India 2% Mexico 2% Norway 3%

Thailand 13%

Canada 13% Chile Indonesia Viet Nam 4% 6% 5% Ecuador 4%

US fish exports in 2010 Value Central South America Oceania Africa America&Carib 0.4% 1% 1% bean 3%

North America 24%

Asia 45%

Europe 26%

US fish exports in 2010 Value UK 2%

Others 19%

Canada 25%

China, Hong Kong SAR 2% Spain 2% Netherlands 3% China 16%

France 4% Germany 5%

Korea Rep 6%

Japan 16%

Fish Price Index (2005=100)

Outlook supply • Major increases will depend on aquaculture. • Factors to influence future growth of aquaculture: – costs/availability of feed for selected species; access and availability of areas/water – environmental impacts – availability of technology and finance – effects on biodiversity – climate changes – governance – food safety and traceability issues

• Capture: importance of implement more cautious and effective fisheries management

Outlook demand • Retail concentration in developed and developing which will affect demand • Product development, technological innovation • Continuous increase of trade • Increased imports from developing countries • Outsourcing of processing will continue • Slow growth in per capita consumption