GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEAFOOD DEMAND, SUPPLY, TRADE AND PRICES
by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Service
Woods Hole, 24-25 May 2011
Outline • • • • • • •
Overview Production Utilization Consumption Trade Prices Outlook
Overview: last two decade • Increase in global aquaculture production • Rising demand for fish and fishery products • Growth in world trade of fish and fishery products • Global call for responsible management
World fishery production million tonnes 150 120 Aquaculture
90 60
Capture
30 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
World fishery production million tonnes
150
120
Aquaculture (marine waters)
90
Aquaculture (inland waters)
60
Capture (inland waters)
30
0 1950
Capture (marine waters)
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
World fishery production million tonnes
2009 Production
2010 e 2011f 2011/ 2010
144.6
145.1
149.0
2.7%
Capture
88.9
87.0
88.5
1.8%
Aquaculture
55.7
58.1
60.4
4.0%
e: estimation; f: forecast
Capture fishery production by continent/region million tonnes 100
Oceania 75
Central America and Caribbean Northern America
50 Africa South America 25 Europe
0 1950
Asia 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2009 Capture: top producers China 17%
Others 47%
Peru 8%
Indonesia 6% USA 5% India Japan 5% Chile Russian 4% 4% Federation
Capture fishery production by ISSCAAP division million tonnes
100 Miscellaneous aquatic animals
75
Diadromous fishes Crustaceans 50 Molluscs Freshwater fishes
25
Marine fishes 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2009 Capture by species groups Shrimps, prawns 4%
Other marine fishes 32%
Squids, cuttlefishes, octopuses Bivalves 4% 2% Other crustaceans Other molluscs 3% 1%
Miscellaneous aquatic animals 0.5%
Freshwater fishes Salmons, trouts, 10% smelts 1% Other diadromous 1% Tunas, bonitos, billfishes 7%
Other pelagics 35%
Global trends in the status of marine stocks
Aquaculture production by continent/region million tonnes
60
Oceania Central America and Caribbean
40
Northern America Africa South America
20
Europe Asia
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2009 Aquaculture: top producers Others 15%
Chile 1% Norway 2% Bangladesh 2% Thailand 3% Indonesia 3% Viet Nam 5% India 7%
China 62%
Aquaculture production by ISSCAAP division million tonnes
60 Miscellaneous aquatic animals Marine fishes 40 Diadromous fishes Crustaceans 20
Molluscs Freshwater fishes
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2009 Aquaculture by species groups Other molluscs 3% Squids, cuttlefishes, octopuses 0.0%
Miscellaneous aquatic animals 1%
Bivalves 22%
Other crustaceans 3% Freshwater fishes 56%
Shrimps, prawns 6%
Other marine fishes Other pelagics 3% 0.4% Tunas, bonitos, billfishes Other diadromous 0.0% 2%
Salmons, trouts, smelts 4%
China Capture
Aquaculture
100
60
75 40
50 20
25
0 1950
1970
1990
World excluding China
2009
China
0 1950
1970
1990
2009
Annual growth rate %12 10
8
6
Capture
4
Aquaculture
2
0 1960-1969 -2
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
Annual growth rate Aquaculture vs agriculture 2000-2009
Meat Milk Eggs
1990-1999
Cereals Fruit
1980-1989
Vegetables Aquaculture 1970-1979
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 %
Annual growth rate Aquaculture vs meat %
12 10
Aquaculture
8
Poultry Meat
6
Meat, Total 4
Sheep and Goat Meat 2
Beef and Buffalo Meat 0 1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
Utilization of fish production and per capita fish supply Fish production Per capita fish supply (kg)
(million tonnes)
150
18.0 Fish for human consumption
125
15.0
Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply
100
12.0
75
9.0
50
6.0
25
3.0
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
0.0 2010
Share of utilization of fish production 100%
80%
60%
Fish for human consumption
40%
Non-food uses 20%
0% 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Utilization of fish production breakdown by quantity Non-food uses
Curing
Canning
Freezing
Marketing fresh 0
10
20
30
40
50 60 Million tonnes
Fish as food • Important role in food security • Source of proteins, minerals, micronutrients and essential fatty acids • 118 million tonnes • 17.2 kg/capita • 47% from aquaculture
Per capita fish supply: contribution of capture and aquaculture 100%
75% Capture
50% Aquaculture
25%
0% 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Per capita fish supply
Per capita fish supply World
17.2
Africa
8.4
Asia
18.8
Europe
22.1
North America
24
Latin America
9.6
Oceania
25.5
Industrialized
28.7
Developed
24.3
Least Developed
10.3
Other developing
16.3
LIFDCs
9.1 0
5
10
15
kg/capita
20
25
30
Per capita fish supply by groups of species Aquatic animals, others Cephalopods Marine fish, other Crustaceans
2007 1987
Molluscs, excl. cephalopods
1967 Demersal fish Pelagic fish Freshwater and diadromous fish
0
1
2
3
kg/capita
4
5
6
Nutritional standards • Increase of the per capita food consumption • Improvement of nutritional standards since 1970 • Change in global dietary patterns • Increase in the average global calorie supply • Growth of the quantity of proteins, in particular for emerging economies
Food consumption • • • • •
Rising living standards Population growth Rapid urbanization Increased trade Transformation in food distribution, transportation, marketing • Improvement in food science, technology • Value-added products • More developed economies less reactive to income growth compared to low-income countries
Fish consumption in industrialized countries • • • • •
Diversification in the diets Health and diet conscious Value addition Ready-to-cook, ready-to-eat More fish in fresh form
Protein supply g/capita
120
Total proteins Meat and offals Eggs
Vegetable proteins Milk / dairy products
Animal proteins Fish
100 80 60 40 20 0 World
Africa
North America
Latin America and the Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Oceania
Fish contribution to animal protein supply (2005-2007)
Share of production traded million tonnes 150
120
90
Production 60
Exports
30
0 1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006 2009
Trade by groups of species (value) Meals 3%
Oils 2%
Shrimps, prawns 15%
Other finfish 27%
Other crustaceans 6% Other molluscs aquatic invert 5%
Salmons, trouts, smelts 12%
Cods, hakes, haddocks 10% Squids, cuttlefishes, Other pelagics octopuses 7% 4%
Tuna 9%
Fish exports USD billion
120
100
Central America Oceania
80
Africa 60 Northern America 40
South America Asia
20 Europe 0 1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006 2010
2009: Top exporters (value) China 12% Other 52%
Norway 8% Thailand 7% USA 5%
Viet Nam 4% Chile Canada 4% 3% Peru Indonesia 2% 3%
Net exports developing countries USD billion
25 20 1987
1997
2007
15 10 5 0 -5
Fish
Coffee
Rubber
Bananas
Cocoa
Meat
Tea
Sugar
Tobacco
Rice
Fish imports USD billion
120 Central America
100
Oceania 80
South America
60
Africa
40
Northern America Asia
20 Europe 0 1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2010
2009: Top importers (value) Other 48.4%
USA 14.1% Japan 13.6%
China 5.7% France 5.4% Korea Rep 2.9% Canada Russian Fed China,H.Kong UK 2.1% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1%
Trends in trade • 7% decline in 2009, followed by growth of 11% in 2010 • 2010 imports estimated ad USD 110 billion and exports at USD 105 billion • Positive 2011 • Wide range of product types and participants • Increased fishery trade within regions • Growing imports among/from developing countries
Africa
Imports in USD million
Asia
Imports in USD million
Oceania
Imports in USD million
Europe
Imports in USD million
South America
Imports in USD million
North and Central America
Imports in USD million
US fish imports in 2010 Value Central America&Caribb ean 7%
Oceania 2%
Africa 1%
Europe 9% South America 12% Asia 54%
North America 15%
US fish imports in 2010 Value China 14% Others 34%
India 2% Mexico 2% Norway 3%
Thailand 13%
Canada 13% Chile Indonesia Viet Nam 4% 6% 5% Ecuador 4%
US fish exports in 2010 Value Central South America Oceania Africa America&Carib 0.4% 1% 1% bean 3%
North America 24%
Asia 45%
Europe 26%
US fish exports in 2010 Value UK 2%
Others 19%
Canada 25%
China, Hong Kong SAR 2% Spain 2% Netherlands 3% China 16%
France 4% Germany 5%
Korea Rep 6%
Japan 16%
Fish Price Index (2005=100)
Outlook supply • Major increases will depend on aquaculture. • Factors to influence future growth of aquaculture: – costs/availability of feed for selected species; access and availability of areas/water – environmental impacts – availability of technology and finance – effects on biodiversity – climate changes – governance – food safety and traceability issues
• Capture: importance of implement more cautious and effective fisheries management
Outlook demand • Retail concentration in developed and developing which will affect demand • Product development, technological innovation • Continuous increase of trade • Increased imports from developing countries • Outsourcing of processing will continue • Slow growth in per capita consumption
