GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS IEA/SEAI, DUBLIN IRELAND
COLIN MCKERRACHER 12 SEPTEMBER 2012
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CONTENTS
Smart grid: a global market
Smart grid drivers Case studies
/ / / / GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS, 12 SEPTEMBER 2012
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SMART GRID DRIVERS
Need for new generation investment Energy security
Ageing infrastructure System reliability / quality of service Climate change / environmental drivers
Peak demand constraints Increasing distributed energy resources
Demand growth and new loads Increasing renewable generation 0
5
Note: 26 responses received; total 114 votes cast. New loads = electric vehicles, heat pumps etc.
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10
15
20
Source: BNEF Pre-Forum Survey.
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DRIVERS: WIND PENETRATION (% OF INSTALLED CAPACITY) Poland USA France China Belgium Italy UK Sweden India Greece Netherlands Ireland Germany Spain Portugal Denmark
Rest of world Europe
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
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DRIVERS: SYSTEM AVERAGE INTERRUPTION INDICES BY COUNTRY Duration index
Frequency index
300
2.5
250
2
200
1.5
150
1
100
0.5
50
Duration
Germany
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
France
Austria
UK
Spain
0 US
0
Frequency
Note: 2007 data.
Source: CEER, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
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DRIVERS: TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES IN G20 NATIONS, 2009 (% OF POWER GENERATED) Germany Japan South Korea Australia China France US Italy Canada South Africa UK Indonesia Russia Saudi Arabia Turkey Argentina Brazil Mexico India
NON-TECHNICAL LOSSES
South Africa: $600m/yr
Turkey: $895m/yr
Brazil: $5.1bn/yr
India: $5bn/yr
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Source: METI, various national sources, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
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SMART GRID DRIVERS AND PROJECT TYPES
AMI Distribution automation
HEMS/ BEMS
Energy storage
Demand response
Increasing renewable generation
√
√
√
√
Improved grid reliability
√
√
√
√
Reduce non technical losses
√
√
EV integration Rising peak demand
√
Ageing infrastructure
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance..
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CONTENTS
Smart grid: a global market
Smart grid drivers Case studies
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CASE STUDY- AUSTRALIA T&D INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS (AUD M) ActewAGL (ACT) Aurora Energy (TAS) ETSA (SA) Jemena (VIC) CitiPower (VIC) United Energy (VIC)
SP Ausnet (VIC) Powercor (VIC) Essential Energy (NSW) Endeavor Energy (NSW) Ausgrid (NSW) Ergon Energy (QLD) Energex (QLD) 0
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Current regulatory period
Previous regulatory period
Regulated asset base Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance..
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SMART GRID DRIVERS: US VS. EUROPE KEY DRIVERS FOR INVESTMENT
1 ECONOMIC
2 OPERATIONS 3
• $4.5bn stimulus • Job creation • Tech companies
1
• Reduce opex • Improve asset mgmt
2
RELIABILITY
• Improve SAIDI/SAIFI • Manage major storms
4 ENERGY SECURITY
• Energy efficiency • Peak load management • Integrate RE / EV
CLEAN ENERGY
LIBERALISATION 3 MARKETS / INTEGRATION 4
OPERATIONS
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• Efficiency • RE and DER • Electric vehicles • Deregulation • Competition • Service innovation • European power markets
• European super-grid • Reduce opex • Improve asset mgmt 10
BUT, THE PICTURE CAN CHANGE
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STATES AND COUNTRIES WITH OPT-OUT PROVISIONS FOR CONSUMERS TO REFUSE SMART METERS
Canada Europe United States
In place
Australia
Proposed Note: No opt-out programme in UK, but regulator has clarified that consumers cannot be forced to have a smart meter. Australia opt-out is for TOU only.
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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Energy Finance. The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg New Energy Finance accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Bloomberg New Energy Finance does not consider itself to undertake Regulated Activities as defined in Section 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not registered with the Financial Services Authority of the UK.
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