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Global market review of malt whisky – forecasts to 2015
2011 edition In this report sample you’ll find an overview of the report, a full table of contents and list of data tables and figures, plus one sample page of each chapter. To order a copy of the full report; •
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Author: IWSR editor-in-chief Alexander T Smith
Date published: February 2011
Published by: Aroq Limited Seneca House Buntsford Park Road Bromsgrove Worcestershire B60 3DX United Kingdom
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Overview Total malt Scotch sales fell by 4.8% in 2009 to 6.1m nine-litre cases, as the global recession took hold. This drop reversed the prior five-year performance of 2% CAGR growth. The impact of the recession was most pronounced in the more developed Western markets. The recession was characterised by a shift from on- to offpremise consumption. Although the malt category isn’t as on-trade developed and focused as other categories, the fact that the on-trade was down did have some impact on volumes. Destocking was also a factor in the first half of 2009. The important travel retail channel, the third-largest malt market, was also hard hit as global travel declined, with the business traveller segment being particularly hard hit. Ian Macleod Distillers' managing director Leonard Russell believes the economic problems have led to polarisation within the market. “As a company, we have benefited from polarisation of consumer demand whereby affordable luxury whisk(e)y at the top end has seen some growth. A general trading down from standard brands to more competitively priced Scotch whiskies and ownlabels has been prevalent.” Nevertheless, the long-term outlook is very positive. This report forecasts that total malt sales will rise by 14.7% between 2009 and 2015 to reach 7m cases. This latest report from just-drinks/IWSR provides a complete market analysis of the global malt whisky sector, offering an expert review off the markets, brands, categories and companies. Latest consumption volume data includes actual 2009 volumes, with all data tables trending from 1999 to 2009/2015. Coverage includes the top ten companies' and brands' volumes in each major market and region, and overall volumes globally and by region and major market. In-depth interviews with the following major players provide unique and candid opinion that enhances the analysis: •
Beam Global Spirits & Wine Scotch brand director
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Bushmills’ global brand director
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Campari CEO
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Chivas Brothers' brand director for malts
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Chivas Brothers' chairman and CEO
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Chivas Brothers' marketing director
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Cooley Distillery sales and marketing director
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Dewars' global brand director
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Diageo’s global head of Whisk(e)y, Gins and Reserve brands
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Diageo's Scotch Knowledge and Heritage director
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Duty Free Americas liquor purchasing manager
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Edrington director of malts
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Glenglassaugh managing director
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Ian Macleod director Americas, Africa and Europe
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Ian Macleod Distillers’ managing director
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Morrison Bowmore CEO
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Suntory marketing director, whisky
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The Nuance Group Europe buying and merchandising director
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Whyte & Mackay global sales and marketing director
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William Grant & Sons' global marketing director
The report looks at the recent performance of the malt whisky sector, then discusses the scope of the market, analysing the following key trends and topics: •
Market drivers
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Room for growth?
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Industry structure
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Role of innovation
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The move into super luxury
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The comparison of young versus mature markets
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Future of blended malts
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Age statements
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Inventory situation
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Future competition
The report provides detailed analysis of the major markets' recent performance including coverage of: •
United States
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United Kingdom
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Germany
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Switzerland
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The Netherlands
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Russia
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Spain
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France
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Taiwan
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China
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Japan
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South Korea
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India
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South Africa
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Travel retail
A couple of appendices round off the coverage looking at new regulations and major production moves in the industry. Market data is provided for the following brands: •
Aberlour
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Ballantines
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Balvenie
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Bowmore
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Bruichladdich
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Caol Ila
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Cardhu
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Classic Malts
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Dalmore
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Famous Grouse
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Glen Deveron
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Glen Grant
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Glen Moray
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Glen Turner
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Glenfarclas
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Glenfiddich
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Glenmorangie
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Glenrothes
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Heritage Scotch
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Highland Park
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Isle of Jura
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Johnnie Walker
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Knockando
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Laphroaig
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Loch Lomond
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McClellands
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Prime Blue Scotch
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Spey
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Speyburn
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Strathisla
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The Glenlivet
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The Macallan
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The Singleton
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Tomatin
Use this report to: •
understand the size and scope of the market
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know what's driving the trends within the sector
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hear what the leading brands' latest thinking is
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see where the future lies for the sector
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Table of contents Chapter 1 Recent performance
Chapter 2 Scope of the market Market drivers Headroom for growth Industry structure Role of innovation Move into super luxury Horses for courses Future of blended malts Age statements Vox pops Inventory situation Future competition
Chapter 3 North America market performance United States Rest of Americas Canada
Chapter 4 Europe market performance United Kingdom Germany Italy Switzerland The Netherlands Russia Spain France
Chapter 5 Asia market performance Taiwan China
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Japan South Korea India Other markets: South Africa
Chapter 6 Travel retail market performance Appendix 1 New regulations Appendix 2 Major production moves
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List of tables Table 1: Global malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 2: Top ten countries by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 3: Top ten fastest growth markets by malt scotch consumption, 19992015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 4: Share of malt Scotch on total Scotch in each market Table 5: Malt scotch consumption by region, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 6: Global top ten companies by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 7: Global top ten brands by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 8: 2008 and 2009 Scotch malt whisky stock by age Table 9: Top ten companies in North America malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 10: Top ten brands in North America malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 11: Top ten companies in United States malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 12: Top ten brands in United States malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 13: Top ten companies in Rest of America malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 14: Top ten brands in Rest of Americas malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 15: Top ten companies in Canada malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 16: Top ten brands in Canada malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 17: Top ten companies in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 18: Top ten brands in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)
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Table 19: Top ten companies in UK malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 20: Top ten brands in UK malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 21: Top ten companies in Germany malt scotch consumption, 19992009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 22: Top ten brands in Germany malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 23: Top ten companies in Italy malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 24: Top ten brands in Italy malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 25: Top ten companies in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 25: Top ten companies in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 26: Top ten brands in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 27: Top ten companies in Spain malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 28: Top ten brands in Spain malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 29: Top ten companies in France malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Table 30: Top ten brands in France malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)
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Chapter 1 Recent performance Total malt Scotch sales fell by xxx% in 2009 to xxxm nine-litre cases, according to The IWSR, as the global recession took a toll. This is a reversal of the five-year CAGR pattern of x% growth.
Table 1: Global malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Value 000's (US$)
Volume 000's nine-litre cases
2009
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2009
F2010
F2011
Global total
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 2005
2006
2007
2008
Global total
Volume 000's nine-litre cases F2012
F2013
F2014
Percentage change F2015
2008-2009
2009-2015
Global total
CAGR 1999-2009
2004-2009
Global total Source: The IWSR
The impact of the recession was most pronounced in the more developed Western markets. The recession was characterised by a shift from on- to offpremise consumption. Although the malt category isn’t as on-trade developed and focused as other categories, the fact that the on-trade was down did have some impact on volumes. Destocking was also a factor in the first half of 2009. The important travel retail channel, the third-largest malt market, was also hard hit as global travel declined. The important business traveller segment was particularly hard hit.
© 2011 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Chapter 2 Scope of the market Europe and North America combined account for a xxxx% share of total category volume. Europe has seen its share of the global market decline over the past ten years, falling from xxxx% in 1999 to xxxx% in 2009. Within Europe, North-west Europe (domestic) is the single largest consuming subregion, despite actually declining by xxxxxx cases between 2004 and 2009 to reach xxxxm cases. Southern Europe also lost xxxxxxx cases over the same period, due chiefly to malt’s sales in Italy.
Table 4: Share of malt Scotch on total Scotch in each market Country
Vol2004
Total Taiwan Italy Canada Sweden Japan Germany Duty Free United States Netherlands United Kingdom Belgium and Luxembourg France India China Australia Other Africa Spain Russia Poland South Africa Greece South Korea
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Vol2009
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Chapter 3 North America market performance
Table 9: Top ten companies in North America malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Value 000's (US$) 2009
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 1999
2000
2001
2002
2008
2009
Pernod Ricard Wm Grants Edrington Group Diageo Suntory LVMH Beam Global Thai Beverage U. B. India Berry Brothers Others
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 2005
2006
2007
Pernod Ricard Wm Grants Edrington Group Diageo Suntory LVMH Beam Global Thai Beverage U. B. India Berry Brothers Others
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2003
2004
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Chapter 4 Europe market performance Table 17: Top ten companies in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Value 000's (US$) 2009
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 1999
2000
2001
2002
2008
2009
Diageo Wm Grants Pernod Ricard Campari Edrington Group LVMH La Martiniquaise Beam Global Suntory U. B. India Others
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 2005
2006
2007
Diageo Wm Grants Pernod Ricard Campari Edrington Group LVMH La Martiniquaise Beam Global Suntory U. B. India Others
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2003
2004
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Chapter 5 Asia market performance Table 31: Top ten companies in Asia malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Value 000's (US$) 2009
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 1999
2000
2001
2002
2008
2009
Edrington Group Wm Grants Diageo Pernod Ricard Suntory LVMH Harvie's of Edinburgh Beam Global Takara Shuzo Bacardi Martini Others
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 2005
2006
2007
Edrington Group Wm Grants Diageo Pernod Ricard Suntory LVMH Harvie's of Edinburgh Beam Global Takara Shuzo Bacardi Martini Others
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2003
2004
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Chapter 6 Travel retail market performance
Table 39: Top ten companies in Duty Free malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s) Value 000's (US$) 2009
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 1999
2000
2001
2002
2008
2009
Wm Grants Diageo Edrington Group Pernod Ricard Suntory LVMH Beam Global U. B. India Campari J & G Grant Others
Volume 000's nine-litre cases 2005
2006
2007
Wm Grants Diageo Edrington Group Pernod Ricard Suntory LVMH Beam Global U. B. India Campari J & G Grant Others
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2003
2004
