Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Presented by: JOHN LEAHY COO, Customers

Global Market Forecast 2013: Highlights GMF 2013 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast

RPK (trillions) Passenger aircraft fleet

2012

2032

% Change

5.5

13.9

151%

16,094

33,651

109%

New passenger aircraft deliveries Dedicated freighters

28,355 1,645

2,905

New freighter aircraft deliveries

Total New Aircraft Deliveries

871

29,226

Market value of $4.4 trillion Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freight aircraft ≥10t Source: Airbus GMF © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

77%

20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

20,242 single-aisle aircraft +724 aircraft over GMF 2012

7,273 twin-aisle aircraft +299 aircraft

1,711 very large aircraft +5 aircraft

29,226 new aircraft +1,028 aircraft Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF

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Market value of $4.4 trillion

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth August Passenger Traffic

+7.1%

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year) 8% 6% 4% 2% Real GDP

0%

World passenger traffic (ASKs)

-2% -4% JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

World air transport is recovering after 12 months of slower growth Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A two-speed world Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth Real GDP growth (%) 10%

History Forecast

8%

Emerging economies*

6% 4% 2% 0%

Mature economies

-2% -4% 1982

1985

1988

54 emerging economies. Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

Emerging/Developing

China India Middle East Asia Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe

Advanced

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

Western Europe North America Japan

Yearly RPK growth 2013 -2032

6 billion people 2013

1 billion people 2013

Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Passenger traffic growth varies by region ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%) Emerging Markets Traffic

+13.2%

16%

12% Western Europe Traffic

8%

+4.6%

4% US Traffic

0%

+2.4% -4% -8% -12%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe with positive growth Source: OAG, Airbus

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Page 7

Emerging economies are driving future growth Today 28% of worldwide GDP

69% of worldwide population (4.9 billion people)

39%

39%

of world passenger trips

of world fleet-inservice

2032 67%

40%

of worldwide population (5.7 billion people)

of worldwide GDP

54%

51%

of world passenger trips

of world fleet-inservice

Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)

Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

More new fliers from the emerging markets Trips* per capita over GDP per capita Trips* per capita - 2012 10 China - 2032 .95 trips per capita

1 India - 2032 .25 trips per capita

0.1

United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita

USA 1.53 trips per capita

2/3 1/5

China .26 trips per capita

of the of the of population population of the emerging the emerging countries will countries took take a trip aa trip inin2012 year 2032

India .05 trips per capita

0.01

0.001

0

20,000

40,000

Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus * Passengers originating from respective country © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

60,000

80,000

100,000 120,000 2012 GDP per capita ($US)

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Oil Crisis

Oil Crisis

Gulf Crisis

Financial Asian WTC SARS Crisis Crisis Attack

5.0

67% 4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

67% growth through multiple crises over the last ten years Source: ICAO, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2012

2013 Airbus order backlog by region Europe & CIS

North America

18%

12% Middle East

8%

Lessors

Asia Pacific

36%

19% Latin America

Africa

1%

6%

Backlog of 5,190 aircraft As at end August 2013 Corporate, MRTT and undisclosed 1%

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth • Aviation increasingly at the centre of peoples’ journeys • More people, more wealth, bigger cities – urban population set to grow from 51% today to over 60%

• Emerging markets, more first time flyers and a growing middle class which will grow from 2.2 billion today to 5.2 billion

• Growing tourism and internationalisation will stimulate demand • More liberalisation to come, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America • Replacement of less eco-efficient aircraft - 2/3 of existing fleet will be replaced

• Low cost model set to grow in Asia-Pacific and Africa • Growth in the number of Aviation mega-cities driving demand for VLAs

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Month 200X

Traffic will double in the next 15 years 2012-2032

World annual RPK (trillion)

ICAO total traffic

Airbus GMF 2013

4.7%

16 2022-2032

14

4.4% 12

2012-2022

10

5.1%

8 6

Air traffic has doubled every 15 years

4

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

2 0 1972

1977

1982

Source: ICAO, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032 RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions) % of 2012 world RPK

20-year growth

29%

5.5%

34%

Europe

26%

3.8%

22%

North America

25%

3.0%

18%

8%

7.1%

12%

20-year world annual traffic growth

5%

6.0%

7%

4.7%

4%

5.8%

4%

3%

5.1%

3%

0 Asia-Pacific

1,000 2012 traffic

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2012-2032 traffic

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

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% of 2032 world RPK

Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032 Largest O&D flows in 2032 20-year CAGR

2012 – 2032 Billions RPK Domestic PRC

7.0%

Domestic USA

1.9%

Intra Western Europe

2.9%

Western Europe - USA

3.0%

Asia - Western Europe

4.3%

Domestic India

9.8%

Asia - PRC

6.2%

Domestic Brazil

7.0%

2012

Intra Asia

6.1%

2032

Western Europe - Middle East

4.8%

Western Europe - South America

4.8%

Domestic Asia

5.7%

Asia - Middle East

8.0%

Western Europe - PRC

5.7%

Indian Sub - Middle East

6.1%

Asia - USA

4.2%

PRC - USA

6.5%

Central Europe - Western Europe

5.9%

South America - USA

5.3%

Indian Sub - USA

6.6%

0

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Single-aisle: 69% of units; Wide-bodies: 59% of value 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000

29,226

GMF 2012

16,000

New Deliveries

GMF 2013

12,000

2013 -2032

8,000 4,000 0 Single-aisle

Small twin-aisle

% units

69%

17%

8%

6%

% value

41%

26%

17%

16%

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Intermediate twin-aisle

Very Large Aircraft

Approaching 10,000 A320 Family sales 9,821 firm orders 5,715 deliveries 4,106 firm order backlog (1,758 ceo, 2,348 neo)

A take-off or landing every 2.5 seconds, with 99.6% reliability End August 2013

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High oil prices here for the long-term Long-term oil price forecast 180

Brent oil price (current US$ per bbl)

History

Forecast

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980

1985

1990

Source: EIA, IHS CERA (May 2013), Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

A320neo offers environmental benefits • Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to: 1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars

• 3,600 tonnes of CO2 the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees

• NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6 • 500nm more range or 2 tonnes more payload

• Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV Significant environmental improvements

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A320neo leads the 737 MAX in orders and customers

42 customers

A320neo 2,348 orders 61%

737 MAX 1,498 orders 39%

20 customers + 8 unannounced orders

A320neo is the preferred market option Data to end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A330 Family deliveries pass 1,000 1,256 firm orders 1,008 deliveries 248 backlog

A take-off or landing every 25 seconds, with 99.0% reliability To end August 2013

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Maintaining market leadership

Delta order 10 x 242t A330-300s to add to their current A330-200/300 fleet

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242t A330-200 matches mature 787-8 range European capability

Trans-Pacific capability

MADRID

TOKYO ADDIS ABABA

MAURITIUS

787-8 7,350nm range with 246 pax A330-200 7,250nm range with 246 pax

Pax weight = 95kg, JAR 3% flight profile, LRC, 200nm diversion 787-8 227.9t MTOW, A330-200 242t MTOW © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

NEW YORK DALLAS ORLANDO

A350 XWB 682 firm orders 35 customers 682 backlog

To end August 2013

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MSN1 First flight June 14th, 2013

10% of flight test completed – 51 flights, 251 hours flown Data for 19 September 2013

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A350 XWB – a complete long-range family Airbus

Boeing

A350-1000

777-9X 777-8X A350-900

777-300ER 787-10

A350-800

787-9 787-8

One New Family of technically superior aircraft

Two aircraft types a generation apart

A step ahead of the 787, a generation beyond the 777

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Unrivalled A350-1000 efficiency A350-1000 is unbeatable LHR

+ 40T MTOW

SIN

777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW (+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure)

The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency 6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers

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42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day … 2012 Aviation Mega-Cities

42

0.8M

Aviation Megacities

Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities traffic

93% • • •

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 42 cities

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic; © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

… and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities 2032 Aviation Mega-Cities

89 Aviation Megacities

2.2M Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities

99% • • •

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 90 cities

Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic; © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A380 262 firm orders 20 customers 154 backlog

120,000 revenue flights – 1 million flight hours – 44 million passengers carried A take-off or landing every 5 minutes Orders/backlog August 2013

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A380 is the market’s VLA of choice Cumulative net orders for passenger aircraft in airline use 300

Market share (number of orders) 747-8 A380

A380 261 orders 19 airlines

250 11% 200 89% 150 100 50 0 2001

747-8 31orders 4 airlines

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Outselling the competition 8 to 1 As at end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com Does not include VIP versions © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2010

2011

2012

The next chapter for BA

A380 in service between LHR-LAX, TODAY!

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Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft Fleet in service evolution; 2013-2032 40,000

+ 3.7% per annum

36,556

35,000 30,000 18,817

Growth

25,000 20,000

New aircraft 29,226

17,739

15,000

10,409

Replaced

7,330

Stay in service & Converted

10,000 5,000 0 Beginning 2013

Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2032

Summary • Strong growth in passenger traffic – resilient growth through a difficult, but improving economic period

• Demand for over 29,000 new aircraft by 2032 – ~28,300 passenger aircraft and nearly 900 freighter aircraft

• Replacement of ageing fleets – 20 year demand for nearly 11,000 passenger aircraft for replacement, largely in the single-aisle segment

• Single-aisle aircraft represent 70% of demand in units, but widebody aircraft represent 60% of value

• VLA demand driven by aviation mega-cities – more than 99% of all long-haul passengers will fly to, from or through these cities by 2032

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Presented by: Bob Lange SVP, Market & Product Strategy

Airbus Global Market Forecast A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast Market Research Trends Analysis • Consumer & Travel Surveys • Tourism • Migration • Traffic flows • Passenger demands

Airlines • Business Models • Operations • Competition • Geopolitics

Governments & Regulators • Liberalization/ deregulation • Investments and constraints • Geopolitics

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Forecast Traffic • Economics and Econometrics • Fuel costs • Yields • Load Factors • Trade and Value of Goods

Network Development • Route planning • Origin and destination demand • Population centers

Fleet trends • Aircraft economics • Utilization • Fleet age and retirements

Understanding the reasons for peoples’ journeys is key to understanding the market

27%

…of all trips are for Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR)

Immigration flow by region

Pacific North America Latin America Europe/CIS

Asia/Middle East Africa Origin Source: UN WTO, UN DESA, Airbus

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Destination

International students further driving travel Evolution of the students studying abroad Millions of students

4

3

2

1

0 1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

The number of international students has nearly doubled since 2000 Source: OECD, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

What drives the demand of the future?

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

World urban population to reach 5 billion by 2030 10

Population (billions)

Urbanisation rate History

100%

Forecast

9

Urban population

90%

8

Rural population

80%

Urbanisation rate

70%

7 60%

6

60%

51%

5

70%

50%

4

40%

3

30%

2

20%

1

10%

0

0%

1950

1960

1970

Urban population: 1.3B

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1980

1990

2.3B

2000

2010

3.5B

2020

2030

5.0B

2040

2050

6.4B

Global Middle Class to more than double Global Middle Class*

5,211

(Millions of people)

5,000

4,000

3,000

Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 2,228

3,576

757

578 3,526

2,000

432

x2.4

x4.1

2,038

856 1,000

265

262

253

675

698

675

2012

2022

2032

7,100

7,800

8,400

32%

46%

62%

0

Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus * Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP) © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

World Population % of world population

Month 200X

Emerging regions will drive economic growth Real GDP forecast by period and region 9.0% 8.0%

2013

7.0%

2014 20-year CAGR

6.0%

World Averages

5.0% 4.0%

20-year CAGR 3.0%

2014 2013

2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Japan

Europe

North America

Pacific

Source: IHS Global Insight (September 2013), Airbus

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CIS

Central America

Middle East

Asia

South America

Africa

PRC

Indian Sub Continent

Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe

Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries) Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

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Aviation shapes the world Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, 2013 – 2032 growth and 2032 volume

2012

2022

2032

Traffic growth (20-year CAGR) Traffic volume (monthly O&D PAX)

Source: Sabre, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0%

0.1

13% 12

25 mio

Emerging economies grew strongly through the crisis Offered capacity for emerging and advanced economies (ASKs) (Base 100 in 2007) Emerging ASKs

160

+55%

150

To/from/within emerging economies*

140 130

120 110

Advanced ASKs

To/from/within advanced economies**

100

+4%

90 80 2007

Source: OAG, Airbus * 54 emerging economies ** 31 advanced economies © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic Evolution of long-haul vs short-haul traffic (ASKs), 1973-2013,

Long-haul traffic

Index 100 = 1973 *

x9.1

1000

Short haul

900

Long haul 800 700

600

Short-haul traffic

500

x6.2

400 300 200 100 0 1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

Since 1973, Long-haul traffic has grown 1% per year faster than short-haul traffic Source: OAG * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Long-haul traffic consolidation Evolution of traffic per long-haul airline (ASKs), 1973-2013, Index 100 = 1973 * 400 ASKs per Airline

350

Number of Airlines 300 250 200

150 100 50 0 1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

Since 1973, the amount of ASKs carried per airline has nearly quadrupled Source: OAG, Airbus * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Today’s Aviation Mega-Cities will continue to drive a huge amount of long-haul traffic Passenger traffic at cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers

Source: Sabre, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Cabin Supplier Council

13/09/2013

Details behind the forecast

>200 global traffic flows

>10.000 country pairs >200.000 O&D city pairs >1.000.000 O&D city pair routings

Macro traffic forecast

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Micro network forecast

Airbus GMF Methodology to Seabury

GMF 2013 new routes

The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Airbus Global Market Forecast

Nearly 800 airlines and their subsidiaries are analyzed Airlines distribution per region

Airlines distribution per type

Number of airlines 120 Installed seats in service (outside circle) Number of airlines (inside circle)

109 100 100 82

81

8%

80 64

11% 6% 5%

16%

60

50

20%

43

41 40

5%

37 32

30

20

19

36

49%

5% 17

9%

8%

0 Global Network Major Network Small Network LCC Regional & Affiliate Charter

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58%

…driving future demand of twin-aisle & VLA segments 20-year demand by category

Worldwide Demand Single-aisle: 20,242 Twin-aisle & VLA: 8,984

North America Europe

CIS Asia Pacific

Middle East

Africa Aircraft Demand

Twin-aisle/ SingleVLA aisle

Source: GMF 2013

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Latin America

Worldwide demand for 29,226 passenger aircraft 20 Year Aircraft Demand

North Latin Asia-Pacific Middle Europe Africa World CIS America America East 30

25

20

(Thousands) Africa CIS Latin America Middle East

2032 RPKs (Trillions)

14 12 10

North America

8 15

Europe

6

10 4

10,941 29,226 2,307 2,075 5,847 5,952 1.116 988 Aircraft Aircraft Aircraft 5

Traffic by domicile:

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~14 12% 18% 22% 34% 3%trillion 4% 7% ofof2031 2031RPKs World Worldin RPKs 2031

AsiaPacific

2

0

0 Aircraft Demand

RPKs