George E. Blomgren G E Bl Blomgren Consulting Services Ltd. L k Lakewood, Ohio, USA d Ohi USA
Introduction Review some projections for lithium ion battery usage
in transportation sector Illustrate the various battery geometries and placements in several vehicles in production Review US sales for light vehicles using hybrid or electric drive produced in different geographic areas Discuss the suppliers of lithium ion batteries in diff different areas and their cell sizes, types and t d th i ll i t d chhemistries E l t b tt t Evaluate battery systems for energy and power f d
Projection of lithium ion battery transportation revenue from Pike Research transportation revenue from Pike Research
Global sales of 3.8 M ev and pev by 2020 projected by Pike Research
Lux Research predicts that lithium‐ion battery supply will reach about 30GWh by 2020, while demand could be as low as 2GWh in the worst scenario, and 20 GWh in the best. (Source: Lux Research) (Source: Lux
New Plug‐in Vehicle Sales in US by quarter (source Argonne National Laboratory) Argonne National Laboratory)
New Hybrid Vehicle Sales in US by year (source EVs Roll) EVs Roll)
2020 Sales Projections by area j y Pike Research forecasts that by 2020 more than 1.8
million BEVs will be on Europe s roadways, along with million BEVs will be on Europe’s roadways along with 1.2 million PHEVs and 1.7 million HEVs. Pike Research also forecasts that there could be as many as 1.8 million plug‐in electric vehicles on U.S. roads by 2020 Pike sees China taking the lead in terms of market size with growth really taking off from 2013 onward size, with growth really taking off from 2013 onward through that decade. By 2020, Asia Pacific is expected to become the world s largest PEV market to become the world’s largest PEV market
Geometry and placement of y p battery in evs, pevs, and hevs. Wide variety of placement, but generally not in engine compartment
The Nissan Leaf The Nissan Leaf’ss 480 480‐lb lb battery pack is made up of 48 battery pack is made up of 48 stackable lithium‐ion modules. (Source: Nissan) (Source: Nissan)
The Nissan Leaf's pack resides under the floor. (Source: Nissan) (Source: Nissan)
Chevy Volt Chevy Volt'ss T‐Shaped Battery T‐Shaped Battery ( ) Pack (Source: General Motors)
Chevrolet Volt battery location Chevrolet Volt battery location ( (Source GM) )
SSpark's battery configuration will differ from that of the Volt, k' b tt fi ti ill diff f th t f th V lt residing in the rear of the vehicle. (Source: GM) (Source: GM)
Toyota's Prius PHV plug‐in uses 288 cells in its lithium‐ion battery pack, and employs 42 temperature sensors, new ductwork, and k d l 42 t t d t k d three fans for cooling. (Source: Toyota) (Source: Toyota)
Prius Plug‐in placement in rear of trunk (source Toyota)
Tesla's Model S uses a flat battery pack (at bottom) that contains at least 7,000 small 18650‐type batteries, each measuring 18mm in diameter by about 65mm long. (Source: Design News) (Source: Design News)
2013 Ford Focus Electric battery 2013 Ford Focus Electric battery Mounted over rear axle Front wheel drive (Source Ford) Front wheel drive (Source Ford)
A 23kWh, high‐voltage, lithium‐ion battery system A kWh hi h l li hi i b Advanced liquid heating/cooling regulates battery temperature H l Helps maximize battery life and miles from each i i b tt lif d il f h charge
2012 Honda Civic Hybrid lithium ion battery in rear seat 2012 Honda Civic Hybrid lithium ion battery in rear seat (Source Honda)
US Hybrid Sales for US Producers y Mfr Buick Buick Cadillac Chevrolet
Model Lacrosse Hybrid Regal Hybrid Escalade Hybrid
Battery Chemistry
Battery Supplier
USA EPA Combined city/hwy gasoline (mpg/kpl)
CY 11
CY 2012
CY 12 vs 11
Battery Size (kWh)
1 801 1,801
12 010 12,010
566 90% 566.90%
05 0.5
Li Ion Li Ion
Hitachi
29
123
2,564
1984.60%
0.5
Li Ion
29
819
708
‐13.60%
1.8
NIMH
Hitachi Primearth PEVE)
24
16,664
69333.30%
0.5
Li Ion
Chevrolet
Malibu Hybrid Silverado Hybrid
1,001
469
‐53.10%
1.8
NIMH
Chevrolet
Tahoe Hybrid Tahoe Hybrid
519
533
2 70% 2.70%
18 1.8
NIMH
Ford
‐
10,935
N/A
1.4
Li Ion
Ford
C‐Max Hybrid Escape Hybrid (No longer available)
10 089 10,089
1 441 1,441
‐85.70% 85 70%
18 1.8
NIMH
Ford
Fusion Hybrid
11,286
14,100
24.90%
1.4
Li Ion
GMC
Yukon Hybrid
598
560
‐6.40%
1.8
NIMH
GMC
Sierra Hybrid
164
471
187.20%
1.8
NIMH
Lincoln
MKZ
5,739
6,067
5.70%
1.8
NIMH
32 163 32,163
66 522 66,522
107%
Total US Total US
Hitachi Primearth PEVE) Primearth PEVE) Panasonic (Sanyo) Panasonic (Sanyo) Panasonic (Sanyo) Primearth PEVE) Primearth Primearth PEVE) Panasonic (Sanyo)
21 29 21 21 47
32 47 21 21 45
US producers are transitioning to lithium ion from NIMH. Asian producers still sticking with NIMH.
US Hybrid Sales for Asian Producers Mfr
Model
Acura
ILX Hybrid
CY 11
CY 2012
‐
972
CY 12 vs 11
Battery Energy (kWh) or Power (kW)
NA
20 kW
Battery Chemistry
Battery Supplier
Combined city/hwy gasoline (mpg/kpl) NA
Honda
Civic Hybrid
4,703
7,156
52.20%
20 kW
Lithium ion
Honda
CR Z CR‐Z
11 330 11,330
4 192 4,192
63 00% ‐63.00%
20 kW 20 kW
Lithium ion Lithium ion
Blue Energy (JV Blue Energy (JV of GS Yuasa and Honda) Blue Energy (JV of GS Yuasa and Honda)
Honda
Insight
15,549
5,846
‐62.40%
0.6 kWh
NIMH
Sanyo
42
Hyundai
Sonata
19,673
20,754
5.50%
1.4 kWh
Lithium ion
LG Chem
36
Infiniti
M Hybrid
378
691
82.80%
1.3 kWh
Lithium ion
AESC
29
Kia
Optima Hybrid
403
10,084
2402.20%
1.4 kWh
Lithium ion
LG Chem
36
14,381
17,671 7,041
22.90% NA
1.3 kWh 1.6 kWh
NIMH NIMH
PEVE PEVE
42 40
Lexus Lexus
CT200h ES 300 Hybrid ‐
44
37
Lexus
GS 450h
282
607
115.20%
1.6 kWh
NIMH
PEVE
31
Lexus
HS 250h
2,864
649
‐77.30%
1.3 kWh
NIMH
PEVE
35
Lexus
LS 600h
84
54
‐35.70%
1.6 kWh
NIMH
PEVE
20
Lexus Toyota
RX 400 / 450 h Avalon Hybrid ‐
10,723
12,223 747
14.00% NA
1.6 kWh 1.6 kWh
NIMH NIMH
PEVE PEVE
30 NA
Toyota
9,241
45,656
394.10%
1.6 kWh
NIMH
PEVE
41
Toyota
Camry Hybrid Highlander Hybrid
4,549
5,921
30.20%
1.87 k
NIMH
PEVE
28
Toyota T Toyota Toyota
Prius Liftback Pi V Prius V Prius C ‐
128,064 8 399 8,399
147,503 40 669 40,669 35,733
15.20% 384 20% 384.20% NA
1.3 kWh 1 3 kWh 1.3 kWh 0.94 k
NIMH NIMH NIMH
PEVE PEVE PEVE
50 50 50
234,343
364,362
55%
Total Asia
US Hybrid Sales for European Producers US Hybrid Sales for European Producers Mfr
Model
Audi
Q5 Hybrid ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 7‐Series ActiveHybrid
BMW BMW BMW BMW Mercedes
Porsche
S400HV Hybrid Cayenne Hybrid Panamera S Panamera S Hybrid
Volkswagen
Jetta Hybrid
Volkswagen
Touareg Hybrid
Porsche
Total Europe
CY 11
CY 2012
CY 12 vs 11
Battery Size (kWh)
Battery Chemistry
Battery Supplier
Combined city/hwy gasoline (mpg/kpl)
‐
270
NA
1.3
Lithium ion
Sanyo
26
‐
402
N/A
13 1.3
Lithi Lithium ion i
A123
28
‐
404
N/A
1.3
Lithium ion
A123
26
338
231
‐31.70%
1.3
Lithium ion
A123
25
309
121
‐60.80%
0.9
Lithium ion
Saft
21
1,571
1,180
‐24.90%
1.7
NIMH
Sanyo
21
52
570
996.20%
1.7
NIMH
Sanyo
25
‐
162
N/A
1.1
Lithium ion
Sanyo
45
390
250
‐35.90%
1.7
NIMH
Sanyo
21
2703
3324
23%
Low sales in US, but dominated by lithium ion. Mostly luxury hybrid vehicles imported to US from Europe
US Sales for Plug‐in US Sales for Plug in and Battery electric vehicles and Battery electric vehicles Manufacturer
Model
CY 11 CY 11
CY 2012 CY 2012
CY 12 vs 11 CY 12 vs
Battery Size (kWh)
BMW
ActiveE
‐
671
N/A
32
Battery Supplier SB LiMotive (now Robert Bosch Battery Lithium ion Systems)
BYD BYD
Qin e6 BEV
_ _
_ _
_ _
10 60
Lithium ion Lithium ion Lithium ion
Chery Chevrolet
S18 Volt
_ 7,671
_ 23,461
_ 205.80%
40 16.5
Lithium ion Lithium ion
BYD BYD Wanxiang Group LG Chem
Chevrolet Fisher
Spark Karma
Unknown
20 20
Lithium ion Lithium ion
A123 A123
Ford Ford Honda
C‐Max Energi Focus Fit EV
N/A 8462.50% N/A
7.6 23 20
Lithium ion Lithium ion Lithium ion
Honda
Accord Plug‐ in Hybrid y
6.75
Lithium ion
Panasonic LG Chem Toshiba Blue Energy (JV of GS Yuasa and Honda))
New ‐ 8 ‐
2,374 685 93
New
Battery Chemistry
Continued next slide
Combined city/hwy Electric range gasoline (miles/km) (mpg/kpl)
94/151
N/A
31/50 200/321
_ N/A
93/150 38/61 80 to 90/130 80 to 90/130 to 140 33/53
N/A 37/15.7
21/34 76/122 82/131
43/18.3 N/A N/A
13/21
46/19.6
N/A 20/8.5
US Sales for Plug‐in and Battery electric vehicles US Sales for Plug in and Battery electric vehicles (continued) Manufacturer Model Mitsubishi
i
Mitsubishi
Outlander
Nissan
Leaf
Smart
CY 11
CY 2012
CY 12 vs 11
Battery Size Battery Size (kWh)
Battery Battery Chemistry
Battery Battery Supplier
80
588
635.00%
16
Lithium ion
Toshiba
12
Lithium ion
New
Electric range Electric range Combined city/hwy Combined city/hwy (miles/km) gasoline (mpg/kpl) 62/99
N/A
37/62
AESC (JV of Nissan ‐ NEC ‐ Lithium ion NEC Devices) Li‐Tec (JV of Daimler ‐ Lithium ion Evonik)
9,674
9,819
1.50%
24
forTwo EV
388
139
‐64.20%
17.6
Tesla
Model S*
‐
2,400 (Est)
N/A
40, 60, 85
Lithium ion
Panasonic
Toyota
Prius Plug In
‐
12,750
N/A
4.4
Lithium ion
Toyota Coda Automotive
RAV4 EV
‐
192
N/A
41.8
Lithium ion
Panasonic Tesla (Panasonic cells)
Sedan
‐
Unknown
N/A
31
Lithium ion
Lishen
Total
17821
53172
198%
73/117
N/A
68/109 NA, 208, 265/NA, 338, 431
N/A
N/A
18‐Nov
50/21.3
100/161
N/A
88/141
N/A
US EPA website: hybrid vs. non‐hybrid comparison y y p between similarly equipped vehicles Ford Fusion: hybrid vs. standard int. combustion engine
Ford fusion hybrid has lithium ion battery
Hybrid
Non‐hybrid
Difference
MSRP
$27995
$24515
$3480
Combined mpg
46.8
26.2
20.6
Fuel savings/mo
$78.7
Fuel savings/yr
$944
Gallons fuel/yr
320
572
152
Fuel cost/yr
$1202
$2147
$944
Years to payback
3.7
C diti Conditions: 15000 mi/yr, 55 city/45 highway, $3.75 per gal. fuel cost i/ it / hi h $ l f l t
Hybrids vs Plug‐in hybrids vs EV Hybrids vs. Plug‐in hybrids vs. EV In general, hybrids compare favorably with non‐hybrids with relatively g , y p y y y
small incremental costs and 10 to 40% fuel improvement Micro hybrids have only modest improvement in fuel use Mild hybrids are intermediate, with full hybrids giving largest savings Plug‐ins have better fuel savings , but incremental costs are higher so payback is longer The optimum electric range for different driving patterns is still not settled ‐ l d EPA web site can be used to personalize the driving pattern as EPA b i b d li h d i i well as total miles and fuel costs EVs are not selling well and are expensive because of battery costs. Industr is reorienting to ard plug in h brids in order to impro e sales Industry is reorienting toward plug‐in hybrids in order to improve sales Fuel standards may entice some manufacturers to go with losses in ev sales in order to satisfy requirements in US and other countries If battery costs come down as predicted, ev If battery costs come down as predicted ev sales should benefit the most, but plug‐ins will also benefit, particularly if power capability increases
Cell Properties for Asian Producers Cell Properties for Asian Producers Battery Battery Developer AESC
Nominal Voltage Voltage Capacity Capacity (V) (Ah) Weight (kg) Volume (l)
Specific Energy Energy (Wh/kg)
Energy Density Density (Wh/l)
0.277
89
171
0.331
0.194
67
114
50
?
0.92
?
174
3.65
20
0.428
0.202
173
360
carbon/LMO
3.6
4.8
0.24
0.194
72
123
Country
Cell Cell Designation
Cell Type
Electrode Electrode chemistry
Japan
L3‐10
Laminated/fla t
carbon/LMO
3.6
13
0.527
EH‐6
Wound/ Wound/ prismatic
carbon/NMC
3.7
6
Polymer/flat
carbon/LFP
3.2
C020
Polymer/flat
carbon/NMC
Blue Energy
Japan
BYD
China
EIG
Korea
Hitachi Vehicle Energy
Japan
Generation IV
Wound/ prismatic
LG Chem
Korea
E2
Polymer/flat
carbon/mixed cathode
3.7
10
0.243
0.135
152
273
Lishen
China
LP2770108ab
Prismatic
carbon/LFP
3.2
13.5
0.42
0.224
102
146
Lithium Energy Japan
Japan
LEV50
Rectangular / prismatic
carbon/LMO
3.7
50
1.7
0.865
108
213
Toshiba
Japan
SCiB
Rectangular / prismatic
LTO/LMO
23 2.3
20
0 51 0.51
0 296 0.296
90
177
LMO – lithium manganese oxide, NMC – nickel manganese cobalt, LFP – lithium iron phosphate, NCA – nickel cobalt aluminum oxide
Battery Properties for US and European Producers Battery Developer
A123
Enerdel Johnson Controls
Saft Dow Kokkam
Nominal Voltage Capacity (V) (Ah) Weight (kg) Volume (l)
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
Energy Density (Wh/l)
0.263
124 @ 3.1V
236
0.43
0.252
147
250
27
?
0.338
?
291
Country
Cell Designation
Cell Type
Electrode Chemistry
US
AMP20
Pouch/flat
carbon/LFP
3.3
20
0.5
US
C175‐360
Pouch/flat
carbon/Mixed Oxide
3.6
17.5
US
PL27M (Plan for Rectangular/ 4Q2013) prismatic Graphite/NMC
3.65
France
41M
Cylindrical
Graphite/NCA
3.6
41
1.07
0.51
139
289
US
HE 40
Pouch/flat
carbon/NMC
3.6
40
0.87
0.483
166
298
About 170 Wh/kg for NMC with adequate power and pouch cell 7 / g q p p Up to 120 Wh/kg for LFP in pouch cell, about 100 for LMO Cylindrical lowest in energy, coiled prismatic intermediate, pouch cell highest
Ford Presentation by Nancy Gioia y y July, 2010 y,
Improvements are clearly needed to have sufficiently good technology and low y yg gy enough cost to have a mass market, customer driven product in evs and phevs! Note the increased power capability needed for lower range plug –in vehicles
Cost projections for EV batteries from various sources Cost projections for EV batteries from various sources Source McKinsey & Co. Bloomberg New Energy Finance Ford Institute of Information Information Technology (Takeshita) BYD Presentation Element Energy Report to CCC (UK) US DOE goals
Date
Cost now (US$/kWh)
Jul, 2012
600
Apr 2012 Apr. 2012
689
Apr. 2012
522‐650
Projection 2015 Projection 2020 Projection 2025 Projection 2030 (US$/kWh) (US$/kWh) (US$/kWh) (US$/kWh) 200
160
150
380 (Cell basis) 380 (Cell basis)
120 (Cell basis) 120 (Cell basis)
Mar. 2012
532 (cellx1.4)
170 (cellx1.4)
2011
300
Mar. 2012
725
2012
1000 in 2008
205
320 300
125 in 2022
If costs can be brought to close to DOE goals, the ev If t b b ht t l t DOE l th market will benefit k t ill b fit substantially
Conclusions Hybrid vehicles are now well established in the market
with over 3% penetrlation in US light vehicles. Both NIMH and Li ion will contribute and most vehicles will
require at least a stop‐start technology and even mild hybrids i l h l d ild h b id will come on strong. Payback time looks very good for full hybrids.
Plug‐in hybrids will continue to develop and will benefit
substantially from cost reductions in Li ion batteries. C ill h d l i i i h Consumers will have to get used to plugging in every night and be more aware of range and acceleration to get maximum benefit Li ion batteries will certainly come down in price. The survivor companies will probably be the ones with the most flexibility in production and the most advanced SAFE technology
Conclusions 2 All electric vehicles will develop much more slowly Range anxiety is a major factor at present and will require a lot of consumer education
Range limitations are no different from running out of gas, but the l d ff f f b h charging times require major infrastructure development to accommodate the motorist with high power charging stations and cars equipped to handle it
Li ion battery cost is the limiting feature to any consumer
acceptance. Payback times for electric vs. gasoline are far too long at present Japan and Korea present formidable competition to US companies in battery manufacturing for vehicles China will probably devote its production to domestic use for some time to come