GEOGRAPHY 450 POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT AND THE ENVIRONMENT SPRING 2016 MWF 12:20-1:10PM, Gardner 209 Instructor Dr. Clark Gray Assistant Professor of Geography Office: Carolina Hall 308 Office Hours: Monday 2:45-4:15pm & Wednesday 1:15-2:45pm: no appointment needed http://clarkgray.web.unc.edu/ [email protected] Course Homepage: http://sakai.unc.edu/ Lecture outlines, readings, assignments and grades will be posted here. Nature and Goals of the Course Historical and recent changes in human populations, international development and the global environment are closely interconnected, though sometimes in surprising ways. These changes have brought the world to a population of 7 billion with both unprecedented prosperity and resilient poverty, whose actions have led to a changing climate and declining biodiversity. However this century is likely to witness a peak in the global human population, declining poverty and net reforestation globally. We will examine these processes through the lens of population geography, a quantitative, people-focused perspective that draws on a variety of types of data, to ask how individual decisions contribute to global outcomes as well as how individuals are affected by global change. Structure of the Course In general, each week of class will consist of two days of lecture and one day dedicated to discussing the week’s readings. Approximately three readings will be assigned each week (primarily journal articles) along with a discussion topic. Responsibility for presenting the readings will be rotated among the students, but all students are expected to do the assigned readings and to participate in the discussion. Grading Item Percent Class participation 5% Weekly quizzes 10% Presentations 10% Midterm exam 20% Final exam 25% Papers (2) 30% 100% Total

Notes Weekly participation in discussions, lecture and/or office hours Short quizzes on lectures & readings. Lowest grade dropped. Two short presentations on the readings Mix of formats (multiple choice, short answer, essay) Mix of formats, 20% cumulative Two 5-page research papers with graphics (double-spaced)

If you have special needs that affect your participation in this class please let me know so that I can accommodate them as best possible.

Late assignments will be docked one letter grade per class day late. If illness, a family emergency or a religious obligation will force you to miss an exam or turn in an assignment late, it is your responsibility to contact me BEFORE the exam or due date to make other arrangements. Otherwise I can’t guarantee that a make-up will be available. Finally, please take the Honor Code seriously. Academic dishonesty will be reported through the Honor System. How to Succeed in This Course  Attend all lectures and take careful notes. I will post lecture outlines before class that you can download to aid note-taking. If you miss a lecture, you should meet with another student in the class to hear any announcements and discuss the material.  If some of the material is not clear, don’t hesitate to ask questions during the lecture or follow up with me after class.  Do the assigned readings prior to each day of discussion. The weekly quiz will cover these plus that week’s lectures.  Get started early on the presentation and papers. That way if you have questions you can talk to me before proceeding. Starting these the night before they are due is a good way to get a bad grade.  Prior to each exam, use your lecture and reading notes to prepare a study guide. Feel free to work with others. This is a great way to review and help remember the material.

Course Schedule: Dates are tentative with the exception of the midterm and final. Date Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Fri Mon Wed Sat

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Activity Assignments Welcome Intro to population: data and methods Presentation sign-up Intro to population: key concepts UNC HOLIDAY Discussion week 1 Bring laptop to class Lab session 1 Population and development: mortality Population and development: fertility Paper 1 topic due Discussion week 2 Population and environment: agriculture Population and environment: biodiversity Discussion week 3 The epidemiologic transition Malnutrition and obesity Paper 1 draft due Discussion week 4 Fertility and development The second demographic transition Discussion week 5 Population aging TBD Paper 1 final due Discussion week 6 Review Midterm Exam Bring laptop to class Lab session 2 Intro to migration: data and methods Intro to migration: key concepts Paper 2 topic due Discussion week 7 Urbanization Discussion week 8 UNC HOLIDAY International migration: intro International migration: Europe Paper 2 draft due Discussion week 9 International migration: US Guest lecture: Jason Davis Discussion week 10 Race in the US Indigenous peoples Paper 2 final due Discussion week 11 Population and climate change: drivers Population and climate change: responses Discussion week 12 TBD Review Final Exam 12-2pm: No early finals or make-ups.

Reading List and Discussion Topics Week 1: Are the traditional tools of population data collection running out of juice? Coleman, D. (2013). The twilight of the census. Population and Development Review, 38(s1), 334351. O’Hare, W. P. (2014). State-level 2010 census coverage rates for young children. Population Research and Policy Review, 33(6), 797-816. Meyer, B. D., Mok, W. K., & Sullivan, J. X. (2015). Household surveys in crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(4):199-226. Week 2: Are we reaching a maximum threshold on human health and longevity? Canning, D. (2012): Progress in health around the world. The Journal of Development Studies, 48:12, 1784-1798 Spears, D. (2013). How much international variation in child height can sanitation explain? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6351. Bongaarts, J. (2014). Trends in causes of death in low‐mortality countries: Implications for mortality projections. Population and Development Review, 40(2), 189-212. Week 3: Have we exceeded the Earth’s environmental carrying capacity? Lam, D. (2012). How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history. Demography 48(4), 1231-1262. Smil, V. (2011). Harvesting the biosphere: The human impact. Population and Development Review, 37(4), 613-636. Ausubel, J. H., Wernick, I. K., & Waggoner, P. E. (2013). Peak farmland and the prospect for land sparing. Population and Development Review, 38(s1), 221-242. Week 4: What is more worrying: global undernutrition or global obesity? Stevens, G.A., Finucane, M.M., Paciorek, C.J., Flaxman, S.R., White, R.A., Donner, A.J., Ezzati, M. and Nutrition Impact Model Study Group. (2012). Trends in mild, moderate, and severe stunting and underweight, and progress towards MDG 1 in 141 developing countries: a systematic analysis of population representative data. The Lancet, 380(9844), 824-834. Popkin, B. M., Adair, L. S., & Ng, S. W. (2012). Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries. Nutrition Reviews, 70(1), 3-21. Ng, M., Fleming, T., Robinson, M., Thomson, B., Graetz, N., Margono, C., Mullany, E.C., Biryukov, S., Abbafati, C., Abera, S.F. and Abraham, J.P. (2014). Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet, 384(9945), 766-781.

Week 5: Are the consequences of global fertility decline entirely positive? Reher, D. (2011). Economic and social implications of the demographic transition. Population and Development Review 37(s1): 11–33. Bongaarts, J. (2013). The implementation of preferences for male offspring. Population and Development Review, 39(2), 185-208. Coleman, D., & Rowthorn, R. (2011). Who's afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences. Population and Development Review, 37(s1), 217-248. Week 6: Should intact tropical forests be universally protected with strict conservation policies? Rudel, T. K. (2015). Have tropical deforestation's changing dynamics created conservation opportunities? A historical analysis. Environmental Conservation, 42(02), 108-118. Ferraro, P. J., Hanauer, M. M., & Sims, K. R. (2011). Conditions associated with protected area success in conservation and poverty reduction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(34), 13913-13918. Davis, J., Bilsborrow, R., & Gray, C. (2015). Delayed fertility transition among indigenous women in the Ecuadorian Amazon. International Perspectives on Sexual And Reproductive Health, 41(1), 1-10. Week 7: Should new data sources such as cell phones replace censuses and surveys? Palmer, J. R., Espenshade, T. J., Bartumeus, F., Chung, C. Y., Ozgencil, N. E., & Li, K. (2013). New approaches to human mobility: Using mobile phones for demographic research. Demography, 50(3), 1105-1128. Deville, P., Linard, C., Martin, S., Gilbert, M., Stevens, F.R., Gaughan, A.E., Blondel, V.D. and Tatem, A.J. (2014). Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(45), 15888-15893. Wesolowski, A., Eagle, N., Tatem, A. J., Smith, D. L., Noor, A. M., Snow, R. W., & Buckee, C. O. (2012). Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science, 338(6104), 267-270. Week 8: Should developing countries encourage or discourage internal migration and emigration? Fink, G., Günther, I., & Hill, K. (2014). Slum residence and child health in developing countries. Demography, 1-23. McKenzie, D. (2005). Beyond remittances: the effects of migration on Mexican households. International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain, McMillan and Palgrave, p123-47. Stillman, S., Gibson, J., McKenzie, D., & Rohorua, H. (2015). Miserable migrants? Natural experiment evidence on international migration and objective and subjective well-being. World Development, 65, 79-93.

Week 9: Should the US increase or decrease the number of incoming international migrants? Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Pren, K. A. (2014). Explaining undocumented migration to the US. International Migration Review, 48(4), 1028-1061. Rumbaut, R. G., & Massey, D. S. (2013). Immigration and language diversity in the United States. Daedalus, 142(3), 141-154. Coleman, D. (2009). Divergent patterns in the ethnic transformation of societies. Population and Development Review, 35(3), 449-478. Week 10: Should the US census continue to collect information about race? Hirschman, C. (2004). The origins and demise of the concept of race. Population and Development Review 30(3): 385–415. Bryc, K., Durand, E. Y., Macpherson, J. M., Reich, D., & Mountain, J. L. (2015). The genetic ancestry of African Americans, Latinos, and European Americans across the United States. The American Journal of Human Genetics, 96(1), 37-53. Gaddis, S. M. (2015). Discrimination in the credential society: an audit study of race and college selectivity in the labor market. Social Forces, 93(4), 1451-1479. Week 11: Can we limit climate change by reducing population growth? O'Neill, B. C., Dalton, M., Fuchs, R., Jiang, L., Pachauri, S., & Zigova, K. (2010). Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(41), 17521-17526. Wheeler, D., & Hammer, D. (2010). The economics of population policy for carbon emissions reduction in developing countries. Center for Global Development Working Paper 229. Bradshaw, C. J., & Brook, B. W. (2014). Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(46), 16610-16615. Week 12: Will climate change have consistently negative effects across the developing world? Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., & Lobell, D. B. (2010). The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 577-585. O’Loughlin, J., Linke, A. M., & Witmer, F. D. (2014). Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(47), 16712-16717. Gray, C., & Wise, E. (In press). Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration. Climatic Change.