Gas turbine market forecast - 1 number of gas turbines

11 Febrauary 2002 TECHNOLOGY FOR GAS TURBINE POWER PLANTS - AN ENVIRONMENTAL VIEW Olav Bolland Associate Professor Norwegian University of Science ...
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11 Febrauary 2002

TECHNOLOGY FOR GAS TURBINE POWER PLANTS - AN ENVIRONMENTAL VIEW

Olav Bolland

Associate Professor Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

IBC Conference New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power Oslo, 11-12 February 2002

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Gas turbine market forecast - 1 number of gas turbines 2001-2010

800 700

Number of gas turbines

600 500

125+ MW 20-50 MW

400 3-10 MW 300

Number of gas turbines size [MW] Total 2001-2010 125+ MW 5155 20-50 MW 4377 50-125 MW 4182 3-10 MW 3280 0.2-3 MW 1563 10-20 MW 326 total 18883

50-125 MW

200 0.2-3 MW

10-20 MW 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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0.2-3 MW 3-10 MW

100

10-20 MW 20-50 MW 50-125 MW 125+ MW

Source: 2001/2002 TMI Handbook

Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Gas turbine market forecast - 2 Value of gas turbines 2001-2010

25000 125+ MW

Value (U.S. $ millions)

20000 0.2-3 MW 3-10 MW

15000

10-20 MW 20-50 MW 50-125 MW 10000

125+ MW 50-125 MW

Value of gas turbines U.S. $ millions (2001) size [MW] Total 2001-2010 125+ MW 201825 50-125 MW 98608 20-50 MW 53600 3-10 MW 7019 10-20 MW 1840 0.2-3 MW 1600 total 364492

20-50 MW

5000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Source: 2001/2002 TMI Handbook

Gas turbine market forecast - 3 By manufacturer 2001-2010

by value of power generation gas turbines

by numbers of power generation gas turbines

Kawasaki 1%

others 18 %

Pratt & Whitney 2%

Kawasaki 5%

GE 42 %

Pratt & Whitney 5%

others 18 %

Solar 1% Rolls-Royce 1%

GE 55 %

Siemens 14 %

Solar 5% Rolls-Royce 7% Siemens 7%

Alstom 11 %

Alstom 8%

Others: 12 firms, including Ansaldo, Fiat, Mitsubishi and Vericor

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Source: 2001/2002 TMI Handbook

Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

General trends for gas turbines - 1 • Manufacturing – Excess production capacity – OEMs increase standardization

• High demand for gas turbines, but prices remain fairly constant over time 700

Cost per kW (US$)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1-2 MW

5 MW

50 MW

150 MW

250 MW

260-340 MW

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General trends for gas turbines - 2 • Manufacturers have become more selective to new projects • Outsourcing of EPC • A tendency to promise less on guarantees for power output and efficiency • Gas turbines have become more difficult to insure • Microturbines (38% efficiency • Large Combined Cycles ≈ 58-60% efficiency • Gas turbines 40-50 MW ≈ 42-45% efficiency

Definitions of Turbine Inlet Temperature - TIT T1

T2

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T1: Combustor exit temperature (not much used) T2: Temperature after first blade row in Stage 1 (mostly used) T3: Calculated mixing temperature of combustor exit stream and cooling air (ISO definition)

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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Historical Development of: Turbine Inlet Temperature

Max. Metal Temperatures

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Air and steam cooling of turbine blades

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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Turbine blade materials

Directionally Solifified

Singlecrystal

Normal casting

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Gas Turbine Power Plant Efficiencies – Potential 2010

GT + SOFC

Aeroderivative GT Combined Cycle Humid Air Turbine

60

Combined Cycle

GT + ABC

Thermal Efficiency [%]

50

Aeroderivative Intercooled GT

40

Heavy Duty GT

Aeroderivative GT

30

Intercooled Recuperated GT

20 10 0 0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

GT Power Output [MW] 12 Bolland

Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

NOX emissions from gas turbines - 1 • NOX ≡ NO and NO2 • causes acid rain and ground level ozone formation • Quantified as ppmv = parts per million on volumetric basis • Emission limits in USA more stringent than in Europe • 9 ppmv vs. 25 ppmv • technology development for 50 Hz (Europe) machines is lagging behind the 60 Hz (USA) • But: In Norway ≈ 5 ppmv

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Reducing NOX emissions from gas turbines - 2 commercially available technologies

• Dry Low-NOX Combustion

• Lean pre-mix of fuel and combustion air • Offered for most Gas Turbines on natural gas • 9-25 ppmv achievable on gaseous fuel, operating experience: 9-12 ppmv • Is becoming available also for liquid fuels

• Water (liquid or steam) Injection into the GT combustor • Water/fuel-ratio 1-1.6 • Below 25 ppmv (natural gas) or 42 ppmv (dist. oil)

• Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) • • • • • •

Use of NH3 to react with NO2 (to N2 and H2O) Catalyst at appr. 350 °C in the steam boiler Typically used in oil fired units Below 10 ppmv achievable (typical 80% reduction) Ammonia slip → ammonium sulfate & ammonium nitrate State-of-the-art: 3 ppmv NOX & 3 ppmv NH3

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Reducing NOX emissions from gas turbines - 3 new technologies

• Catalytic Combustion • • • • •

Catalyst in the combustor Tests carried out in a small Gas Turbine not commercially available Temperature limitation, life-time limited 3 ppmv demonstrated in test, single-digit emissions achievable

• Catalytic absorption (SCONOX)

• Catalyst the exhaust gas system (150-370 C) • Use of a solid dry catalyst, Potassium Carbonate, to reduce NO2 (to N2 and H2O) • The catalyst is first converted Potassium Nitrites and then regenerated by a CO2/H2-containing gas • Below 3 ppmv NOX achievable

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Options for power plant CO2 capture Exhaust, 0.3-0.5% CO2 1

Power plant Conventional

CO2 capture 2 H 2 + O2 ⇔ 2 H 2O

Coal Oil Natural gas

2

Gasification Reforming

Watershift H 2 + CO

H 2 + CO2 O2

3

Power plant Oxy-fuel combustion CH 4 + O2 ⇔ CO2 + 2 H 2O

CO2 capture

Power plant Hydrogen-rich fuel

CO2 storage

Exhaust, 0.1-0.5% CO2

Air separation Water removal

1: Post-combustion principle 2: Pre-combustion principle 3: Oxy-fuel principle = direct

stoichiometric combustion with oxygen

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Costs for natural gas fired CC with CO2 Capture z

z

z

z 17

Total cost for CO2 capture and sequestration in a saline aquifer, based on available technology is 25-60 $/tonne CO2 for power plants of 1200-400 MW (7% pre tax discount rate) There are significant differences between the “post-combustion” vendors: cost, plant configuration and technology ⇒ immature technology Cost reduction potential up to 25% ( 1 million tonnes/year)

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Economies of scale – exhaust gas CO2 capture from CC Plant cost [US$/kW]

400 MW

2100 post-comb 1800

Larger gradient with CO2 capture 1200 MW post-comb

1500 1200

2.7-3.1

Factor ∼ 2.5

900 600 300 0 200

pipeline & well excluded

No CO2 capture CO2 capture 400

600

800 1000 1200 1400

Plant output [MW]

z

z

CO2 capture increases investment costs by a factor 2.4-3.1 (per kW, pipeline & well excluded) Economies of scale is more predominant for CO2 capture plants compared to CC

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Economies of scale – exhaust gas CO2 capture from CC Including operational and investment cost - pipeline & well included ⇒ CO2 capture cost is 25-60 US$/tonne CO2 • Increasing plant size from 400 to 1200 MW, reduces cost per tonne CO2 by 50%

• CO2 pipeline/injection well contribution to the reduction is 60% • CO2 capture and compression contribution is 45% (65-70% of overall cost)

• CO2 pipeline cost depends mainly on length, and to a much lesser extent on diameter • The well comprise only a small fraction of total costs

•Total cost for CO2 capture and sequestration in a saline aquifer, based on available technology is 25-60 $/tonne CO2 for power plants of 1200-400 MW (7% pre tax discount rate) CO2 tax in Norway z Use of natural gas as fuel in oil/gas production ≈ 36 US$/tonne CO2 19 Bolland

Barriers for power generation with CO2-capture – 1 Reducing the cost gap ?

Production cost €/MWh

Conventional Gas Fired Combined Cycle, NGCC

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Gas fired Combined Cycle with CO2 capture

NGCC with CO2 capture

... including sale of CO2 for 12 €/tonn 12-19 €/MWh

4-10 €/MWh added CO2-tax 12 €/tonn CO2

Conventional NGCC

12.5 €/MWh ≈ 100 NOK/MWh = 0.1 NOK/kWh

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Barriers for power generation with CO2-capture – 2 Infrastructure for CO2 does not exist !

For EOR (enhanced oil recovery): Large quantities of CO2 required ≈ 10 mill. tonnes CO2/year

CO2 for enhanced oil recovery

Large quantities required to help influence greenhouse gas emissions

CO2 into aquifers CO2 into gas reservoirs

Distinct scale of economy What should be done: Establishing a physical infrastructure for CO2 International regulations for liability and verification

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Capacity: Norwegian sector: Commercial interfaces ≈ 20 Gt of CO2 (sealed structures) ≈ 20 years of all CO2 produced Source: Holloway et al., 1996: The underground disposal of carbon dioxide. in European power plants Report from a Joule II project

Why hydrogen ? Short term: Improved air quality in large cities Independence of oil Long term: Shortage and high prices for fossil fuels Limitation on the emission of air pollutants Renewable energy O2

Hydropower

Biomass

Electr.

Water electrolysis

H2

H2

Fuel cell

Wind

Solar water 22 Bolland

Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Barriers for the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier – ”hydrogen economy” 1) The technology development for fuel cells is slower than expected Cost has to come down to 50-60 $/kW, ⇒ market has to “lift off”, motor industry has to do the job 2) Technology for storage of hydrogen 3) Infrastructure (transport, distribution, filling stations) 4) Acceptance

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What about fuel cells ?

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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11 Febrauary 2002

Hybrid Fuel Cell and Gas Turbine Water

Exhaust

Heat exchanger Hot, pressurised air

Natural gas

SOFC Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

Combustor

Compressor

Turbine

Air

Recuperator Gas Turbine

~

Exhaust Stack Air Inlet

Generator

Power: 250 kW - 10 MW Efficiency: 58-70% fuel-to-electricity

Fuel Processing System SOFC Module Switchgear

SOFC Power Conditioning System

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Courtesy Shell International Exploration and Production BV

Instrumentation and Controls

Thank you !

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Olav Bolland, New Dynamics of Scandinavian Gas & Power, Oslo 2002

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