Gas Export and Enhancing Reliability of Gas Supply to Europe

Gas Export and Enhancing Reliability of Gas Supply to Europe Press Conference, June 3, 2014 Export Volumes Fluctuation Gazprom Group’s gas supplies...
Author: Jonathan Baker
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Gas Export and Enhancing Reliability of Gas Supply to Europe

Press Conference, June 3, 2014

Export Volumes Fluctuation Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to Europe* 161.5 158.4 68.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

900

Source: Gazprom estimates

2

500 400

+168 bcm

300

+225 bcm

200 100

Диапазон прогнозов добычи Production forecast spread Production consensus forecast Консенсус-прогноз добычи

Диапазон прогнозов Consumption forecast потребления spread Consumption consensus forecast Консенсус-прогноз потребления

2035

2034

2033

2032

2031

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

0 2010

*** Based on Cera, IEA, EIA, Eurogas, Cedigaz and EC scenarios.

600

2009

+168 bcm in 2025 +225 bcm in 2035

млрд. куб. м

700

According to consensus forecast***, Europe’s demand for extra gas imports will amount to:

2014**

Extending gap between domestic production and consumption in Europe

800

2025

* European states, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics ** Estimate

2024

2013 2014**

$272

2023

2012

$308

2022

2011

$298

2021

2010

$235

2020

2009

$205

2019

2008

56.4

$187

2018

2007

59.4

$109

2017

$387

2015

$402

2014

$383

2013

$302

64.4

39.2

2012

$296

2011

$410

$ per tcm

$ per tcm

43.0

$273

71.1

54.6

2016

142.9 138.6 150.3 139.9

bcm

bcm

158.8 168.5

Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to CIS and Baltic States

Gas Price Fluctuation Gas price for Europe*, USD bln

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

63.8 39.5

57.6 42.5

55.9

Gas price for CIS and Baltic states, USD bln 25

63.1

21.2

20

43.9

16.0

15 10 5

15.3

11.2 4.7

6.1

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 * European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics

Prospective Gazprom Group’s share at European market 2030

2020

2013 30%

32%

30%

70%

68%

70%

Gazprom Source: Gazprom estimates

3

19.9

Other suppliers

2013 Outcomes per Countries: Europe* Netherlands 2.9 Greece 2.6 Other 5.0 Bulgaria 2.9 Finland 3.5 Germany 41.0

Austria 5.2 Slovakia 5.5



Italy demonstrated most rapid growth versus 2012 (40% increment)



Value of gas supplied to countries beyond CIS exceeded USD 63 bln in 2013

Hungary 6.0 Czech Republic 7.9

Gas supplied to countries beyond CIS (bcm)

France 8.6

Turkey 26.7

Poland 12.9

UK 16.6

Italy 25.3 * European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics

2013 Outcomes per Countries: CIS and Baltic states Georgia 0.2 Estonia 0.7 South Ossetia 0.03 Kazakhstan 4.7 Latvia 1.1 Armenia 1.7

 Estonia (13.6% increment) and South Ossetia (9.6% increment) showed most rapid growth versus 2012

Moldova 2.4

Lithuania 2.7

Gas supplied to CIS countries (bcm)

 Proceeds from gas supplied to CIS countries reached USD 15.3 bln in 2013 Ukraine 25.8

Belarus 19.8

Diversifying Routes: Nord Stream Lack of transit states: decreasing Russian gas transmission costs, avoiding potential political risks – most reliable supplies to consumers in Western Europe

Entire Nord Stream gas transmission system, including German onshore extensions (NEL and OPAL pipelines), is capable of full load operation since November, 2013

Above 15 bcm of gas delivered through Nord Stream since early 2014

Gazprom is capable to provide 100% load of Nord Stream. EC inconsistent actions result in inefficient usage of existing gas transmission infrastructure in Europe: due to valid restriction gas volumes applied for transmission should not exceed 50% of total OPAL capacity

Diversifying Routes: South Stream



First joint of Bulgarian section welded near Rasovo compressor station on October 31, 2013



Agreements on purchasing pipes for first and second pipeline branches signed on January 29, 2014 and March 14, 2014 respectively



First branch construction contract with Saipem signed on March 14, 2014. Second branch construction contract with Allseas Group signed on April 29, 2014

Extending UGS Capacities Abroad: Reliability and Flexibility of Export Supplies Asset swap transaction between Gazprom and Wintershall Holding is scheduled to be completed in 2014, resulting in rising Gazprom’s share in European gas storage joint venture Astora up to 100%.

Bergermeer UGS (Netherlands) partially commissioned in April, 2014. It became one of core link in consumers’ supply chain through Nord Stream. USG will reach full capacity in 2015.

Gazprom Group keeps on constructing Katharina and Etzel UGS in Germany and Damborice UGS in Czechia.

Particulars

Countries beyond CIS* 2010/2011

2013/2014

Working gas capacity used by Gazprom, bcm

2.5

3.6

Maximum daily withdrawal rate, mcm

30.0

51.3

* Particulars as of December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2013

New Line of Business: Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) Fuel LNG and CNG as vehicle fuel means: - considerable fuel costs reduction - tiny emissions (conformance to Euro-6) - reliable and proven technologies - sufficient gas reserves over decades

Industry’s growing demand for imported gas: • Heavy truck can consume up to 200-300 kg of LNG daily • Shipping company having 20-40 trucks annually consumes several million cubic meters of gas • European NGV market may require extra 45 bcm of gas by 2030

Gazprom Group companies keep on running NGV projects in Europe. As of December 31, 2013 Gazprom, represented by its affiliated companies Gazprom Germania and Vemex, owned (both solely and jointly) 31 gas filling stations in Germany, Czech Republic and Poland, including 30 CNG filling stations and 1 LNG filling station.

9

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