Gas Export and Enhancing Reliability of Gas Supply to Europe
Press Conference, June 3, 2014
Export Volumes Fluctuation Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to Europe* 161.5 158.4 68.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
900
Source: Gazprom estimates
2
500 400
+168 bcm
300
+225 bcm
200 100
Диапазон прогнозов добычи Production forecast spread Production consensus forecast Консенсус-прогноз добычи
Диапазон прогнозов Consumption forecast потребления spread Consumption consensus forecast Консенсус-прогноз потребления
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
0 2010
*** Based on Cera, IEA, EIA, Eurogas, Cedigaz and EC scenarios.
600
2009
+168 bcm in 2025 +225 bcm in 2035
млрд. куб. м
700
According to consensus forecast***, Europe’s demand for extra gas imports will amount to:
2014**
Extending gap between domestic production and consumption in Europe
800
2025
* European states, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics ** Estimate
2024
2013 2014**
$272
2023
2012
$308
2022
2011
$298
2021
2010
$235
2020
2009
$205
2019
2008
56.4
$187
2018
2007
59.4
$109
2017
$387
2015
$402
2014
$383
2013
$302
64.4
39.2
2012
$296
2011
$410
$ per tcm
$ per tcm
43.0
$273
71.1
54.6
2016
142.9 138.6 150.3 139.9
bcm
bcm
158.8 168.5
Gazprom Group’s gas supplies to CIS and Baltic States
Gas Price Fluctuation Gas price for Europe*, USD bln
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
63.8 39.5
57.6 42.5
55.9
Gas price for CIS and Baltic states, USD bln 25
63.1
21.2
20
43.9
16.0
15 10 5
15.3
11.2 4.7
6.1
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 * European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics
Prospective Gazprom Group’s share at European market 2030
2020
2013 30%
32%
30%
70%
68%
70%
Gazprom Source: Gazprom estimates
3
19.9
Other suppliers
2013 Outcomes per Countries: Europe* Netherlands 2.9 Greece 2.6 Other 5.0 Bulgaria 2.9 Finland 3.5 Germany 41.0
Austria 5.2 Slovakia 5.5
Italy demonstrated most rapid growth versus 2012 (40% increment)
Value of gas supplied to countries beyond CIS exceeded USD 63 bln in 2013
Hungary 6.0 Czech Republic 7.9
Gas supplied to countries beyond CIS (bcm)
France 8.6
Turkey 26.7
Poland 12.9
UK 16.6
Italy 25.3 * European countries, including Turkey, excluding former USSR republics
2013 Outcomes per Countries: CIS and Baltic states Georgia 0.2 Estonia 0.7 South Ossetia 0.03 Kazakhstan 4.7 Latvia 1.1 Armenia 1.7
Estonia (13.6% increment) and South Ossetia (9.6% increment) showed most rapid growth versus 2012
Moldova 2.4
Lithuania 2.7
Gas supplied to CIS countries (bcm)
Proceeds from gas supplied to CIS countries reached USD 15.3 bln in 2013 Ukraine 25.8
Belarus 19.8
Diversifying Routes: Nord Stream Lack of transit states: decreasing Russian gas transmission costs, avoiding potential political risks – most reliable supplies to consumers in Western Europe
Entire Nord Stream gas transmission system, including German onshore extensions (NEL and OPAL pipelines), is capable of full load operation since November, 2013
Above 15 bcm of gas delivered through Nord Stream since early 2014
Gazprom is capable to provide 100% load of Nord Stream. EC inconsistent actions result in inefficient usage of existing gas transmission infrastructure in Europe: due to valid restriction gas volumes applied for transmission should not exceed 50% of total OPAL capacity
Diversifying Routes: South Stream
•
First joint of Bulgarian section welded near Rasovo compressor station on October 31, 2013
•
Agreements on purchasing pipes for first and second pipeline branches signed on January 29, 2014 and March 14, 2014 respectively
•
First branch construction contract with Saipem signed on March 14, 2014. Second branch construction contract with Allseas Group signed on April 29, 2014
Extending UGS Capacities Abroad: Reliability and Flexibility of Export Supplies Asset swap transaction between Gazprom and Wintershall Holding is scheduled to be completed in 2014, resulting in rising Gazprom’s share in European gas storage joint venture Astora up to 100%.
Bergermeer UGS (Netherlands) partially commissioned in April, 2014. It became one of core link in consumers’ supply chain through Nord Stream. USG will reach full capacity in 2015.
Gazprom Group keeps on constructing Katharina and Etzel UGS in Germany and Damborice UGS in Czechia.
Particulars
Countries beyond CIS* 2010/2011
2013/2014
Working gas capacity used by Gazprom, bcm
2.5
3.6
Maximum daily withdrawal rate, mcm
30.0
51.3
* Particulars as of December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2013
New Line of Business: Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) Fuel LNG and CNG as vehicle fuel means: - considerable fuel costs reduction - tiny emissions (conformance to Euro-6) - reliable and proven technologies - sufficient gas reserves over decades
Industry’s growing demand for imported gas: • Heavy truck can consume up to 200-300 kg of LNG daily • Shipping company having 20-40 trucks annually consumes several million cubic meters of gas • European NGV market may require extra 45 bcm of gas by 2030
Gazprom Group companies keep on running NGV projects in Europe. As of December 31, 2013 Gazprom, represented by its affiliated companies Gazprom Germania and Vemex, owned (both solely and jointly) 31 gas filling stations in Germany, Czech Republic and Poland, including 30 CNG filling stations and 1 LNG filling station.
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