SAVINGS BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (OPEN JOINT STOCK COMPANY)

CENTER FOR MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH

July 2010

Forecast of Russian Economy Development for 2010-2011 and 2012-2013

The previous forecast of the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) for 2010-2012 was prepared in August 2009 and captured generally correct dynamics of the main macroeconomic indices for the current year. According to our previous forecast, in 2010 the real GDP should have made 3.8%, inflation 8.2% (in March 2010 the forecast was reduced to 7.6%), and dual currency basket RUR 33.6. It’s worth noting that with time certain tendencies that contribute to inflation processes and the economic growth in Russia have become more apparent, and we consider reasonable to review our forecast for 20102011 and to try to get an idea of what the Russian economy will be in 2012-2013. In the basic scenario of our new forecast that supposes global economy recovery and further development (and, consequently, increase in the world trade by 7.4% in 2010 and by 6.1% in 2011), and the average oil prices in 2010-2011 at the level of $75 a barrel, we expect that:  The Russian economy will increase by 4.4%-4.7% in 2010 (considering possible GDP figures review by the Federal State Statistics Service) and by 3.6% in 2011. The main driver of the economic growth will be the domestic demand.  In 2010 the inflation will make 6.8%. Close to the end of the year, due to demand recovery and increase in monetary aggregates in the end of 2009 – beginning of 2010, we expect certain acceleration in consumer prices growth rate, which will continue also for the first part of the next year. According to our forecast, the annual inflation figure will go up to 7.1% in 2011.  The value of the dual currency basket will make RUR 34.2 in 2010 and RUR 32.6 in 2011. Ruble exchange rate will be being influenced by considerable balance of current account, moderate capital inflow and shocks caused by indefinite state of the financial system in Europe, as well as by Bank of Russia interventions that partly smooth impact of all these factors.

Ksenia Yudaeva Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Nadezhda Ivanova Head of Forecasting Department of the Center for Macroeconomic Research

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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I. EXTERNAL CONDITIONS FOR 2010-2013 Basic Scenario The basic scenario is based on the assumption of continued world economy recovery and its further development. Such case scenario assumes localization of sovereign debt in the countries in the south of Europe and lack of serious defaults in Eurozone and other countries. It is also assumed that the financial system of Europe is relatively steady. Nonetheless, even the basic scenario cannot exclude aggravation of the situation with Greek state obligations in the first half of 2011 that may evoke temporary destabilization of global markets. However, the growth rates of the world economy in the nearest few years will be lower than those before the crises. Yet unsteady growth rates, crisis measures roll-up, and necessity of a more tough fiscal policy in developed countries as well as significant uncertainty in the growth rate of developing countries make us consider this development scenario as the most possible. As per the latest estimations of the International Monetary Fund (made in July) global GDP growth rate will amount to 4.6% and 4.3% in 2010 and 2011 accordingly. Based on this, it is forecasted that the volume of the world trade will grow as follows: 7.4% in 2010, 6.1% in 2011 and 6.5% in 2012-13. The world trade growth will be accompanied by an increase in demand for energy resources. We expect that the average price for Russia’s Urals oil in the second half of the current year will make $73-75 a barrel. In the first half of 2011 a certain decrease in world oil prices is possible which will be followed by an increase in the second half of the next year. Thus, we suppose that the average yearly price for Urals oil will reach $75 a barrel in 2011. In the basic scenario, years 2012-2013 will see average oil price increase to $83 and $86 a barrel accordingly.

Actual and Estimated Urals Oil Prices 120 105

$/bb l

90 75 60 45

Actual Pessimistic scenario

2013 Q3

2012 Q4

2012 Q1

2011 Q2

2010 Q3

2009 Q4

2009 Q1

2008 Q2

2007 Q3

2006 Q4

2006 Q1

2005 Q2

2004 Q3

2003 Q4

2002 Q2

2003 Q1

2001 Q3

2000 Q4

15

2000 Q1

30

Basic scenario Optimistic scenario

Regarding capital flows in quarters III and IV of 2010 we expect around the same private capital inflow into the Russian economy as it was in Q2 ($4.5 bn, according to CBR estimations). Considering results of January-March period (-$14.7 bn) 2010 will generally witness almost zero capital inflow. Along with other economies of new markets that show higher dynamics in their development compared to developed countries, in 2011 Russia may achieve positive capital inflow (around $10 bn), that will be increased in the following years (See Appendix 1).

Pessimistic Scenario Pessimistic scenario assumes a new recession in the developed countries, first of all in the USA and Europe, due to, in particular, deeper stage of the financial crisis in the Eurozone and, possibly, due to increased concerns of investors regarding high national debt of the USA and Japan. Also this scenario may have more severe economic growth slowdown in the Asian countries as well. Reduction in the internal demand in the developed countries will entail lower © Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

2

growth rates of the world trade: 3% in 2010-2011 and 4-4.5% in 2012-2013, as well as stronger deflation tendencies. In the pessimistic scenario we suppose that in the second half of 2010 oil prices will go down to $60 a barrel and stay there through 2011-2013. Reflection of the crisis in the global economy will be seen in changes of the leading world currencies exchange rates and directions of capital flows. In 2010 the Euro will continue its devaluation against USD, and in 2011 the par value of the two currencies will be reached. In 2012-2013 we will see a bit stronger Euro (with average annual figure of $1.1-1.2 for €1). Relatively low oil price and global risk aversion will lead to capital outflow from the Russian economy: $10-15 bn in 2010-2011.

Optimistic Scenario In case of a more dynamic recovery and further growth of developed and developing economies, than presumed in the basic scenario, world economy growth rate might be equal to 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011-2013. Consequently, higher demand for power resources will push up oil prices to $81 a barrel (Urals brand) in 2010, $90 a barrel and $95 a barrel in 2012-2013. Such development will come along with larger, compared to the basic scenario, capital inflows into the Russian economy, i.e. $10 bn in 2010 and $25-40 bn in 2011-2013.

II. BASIC FORECAST SCENARIO The Second Half of 2010-2011: Switching to Other Growth Drivers According to our estimations, the second quarter of the current year will show the highest registered growth of GDP compared to the same period of the previous year (about 6% yoy). Besides the low base effect such dynamics will be caused by the growth of all domestic demand components. Apart from a statistically registered increase in retail turnover in Q2 (5.1% yoy against 1.5% yoy in Q1), signaling the growth in household consumption and the beginning of the growth in investments into fixed assets (7.4% yoy in June, 5.5% yoy in May and 2,3% yoy in April against decrease by 4.1% yoy in Q1), we also expect a considerable recovery of enterprise inventories. In Q1 of 2010 changes in inventories already had its good impact on real GDP growth yoy (about 1 percentage point), and in Q2, according to our estimations, this GDP component value will increase. Main Macroeconomic Indices

Employment and Unemployment

130

120

9.0

72.0

8.5

71.5

8.0

110

71.0

7.5 100

70.5

7.0 6.5 January 2007=100, Seasonally adjusted Calculated by CMR

Investments into fixed assets Retail turnover

May 10

Feb. 10

Nov. 09

Aug. 09

May 09

Feb. 09

Aug. 08

Nov. 08

68.5 May 08

5.0 Feb. 08

69.0

Nov. 07

Industrial production (calculated by Rosstat)

5.5

May 07

May 10

Mar. 10

Nov. 09

Jan. 10

July 09

Sep. 09

May 09

Mar. 09

Nov. 08

Jan. 09

July 08

Sep. 08

May 08

Mar. 08

Jan. 08

Sep. 07

Nov. 07

May 07

July 07

Mar. 07

80 Jan. 07

69.5

6.0

Aug. 07

90

70.0

Seasonal fluctuations excluded

Unemployment, % (left) Employment, m persons (right)

On the other hand, the impact of net export as the main growth driver in H2 of the previous year and Q1 of the current year is evidently going down and in H2 of 2010 may pass zero level. According to the Federal Customs Service, in April-May Russian export growth slowed down (-3.2% yoy in May and 5.2% yoy in April against 20.4% yoy in JanuaryMarch), whereas import has been increasingly growing (34.6% yoy in May and 24.3% yoy in April against 12.9% yoy in January-March). Reduction of net export nominal volume is evident also from the balance of payments in H1 of 2010 of CBR, according to which balance of goods and services fell in April-June for over $9 bn compared to the previous quarter results.

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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We expect that in H2 of 2010 the continued growth of import will exceed the growth of export. At the same time domestic demand components, on the opposite, according to our estimations, will demonstrate increasing growth rates. As a result, positive influence of household consumption and investments will be partially compensated by net export reduction and real GDP growth rate in Q3-4 will amount, according to our estimations, to around 4.2-4.5% yoy. Based on unexpectedly weak results of Q1 (2.9%), our evaluation of the economic growth in 2010 amounts to 4.4%. At the same time, considering expected review of GDP figures by Rosstat, the final estimation of economic growth may be a bit raised to 4.7% as well.

Contribution into GDP growth by components in 2008-2010 15 9.3

7.7

6.6

10 0.0

2.9

5 0 -5

Consumption Net export Investments into fixed capital Investments into inventories -9.4 GDP growth, % yoy

-10

-3.8 -7.7

-10.8

-15 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2.

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

In 2011 the general tendencies will be the same as in H2 of 2010: the main contribution to the GDP growth will make household consumption and investments into fixed assets increase. Due to the growing world economy, demand for the Russian export will increase as well, but raising domestic demand will ensure higher import growth. As a result, in 2011 the Russian economy will show lower economic growth compared to 2010 that will make, according to our estimations, 3.6%. Pre-crisis GDP may be achieved by the beginning of 2012.

Lending Continued economic growth will be accompanied by recovery and further increase in demand for bank loans. Thus, in April-May the first signs of revival could be seen in the market of loans to both corporate (loans grew by 0.9% mom in April and by 1.9% mom in May), and private borrowers (1% mom in April and 1.2% mom in May). Increase in crediting will support, in its turn, investment and consumption demand. According to our estimations, by the end of 2010 the growth of bank loans to non-financial enterprises and individuals may amount to 6-7%. In 2011 we expect to see a more significant crediting increase, and due to cuts in loans issued to households in 2009 this segment may show even higher recovery. On the whole, the following years will witness crediting growth rate lower than that before the crisis, this is connected with weaker economic growth figures and changes in the very lending model. Before the crisis loans were issued, as a matter of fact, at negative real interest rates, being investments, in their essence. In the nearest years we expect that real interest rates will be positive, and that is a matter of interest to CBR which seeks to raise the role of interest rates as a monetary policy instrument having its impact on the real sector of the economy. Besides, the crisis of 2008-2009 must have taught a lesson to both bankers and borrowers. The level of risk management must be improved in

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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banks and borrowers must become more careful when extending their debt. And, finally, compared to the pre-crisis times, opportunities for banks to raise foreign funds will be lower.

Labor Market, Household Income According to our forecast, employment growth in the nearest years will lag behind the economic growth. Consequently, unemployment level may remain higher than in pre-crisis times. In our point of view, reduction in unemployment from 8.2% in April to 7.3% in May and then to 6.8% in June is partially of seasonal nature and in the autumn we may expect another unemployment increase. Delayed recovery of the labor market compared to the whole economy exit from the crisis is expected in many countries, and this phenomenon is called “jobless” or “jobloss recovery”. Companies that are not sure in steady economic recovery and future demand for their products prefer to increase output by means of higher loading of existing personnel rather than by employing new workforce. It is expected by us that average annual unemployment in Russia in 2010 will make 7.7%, and 7.5% in 2011. At the same time in the situation of unsteady economic growth and rather high unemployment level employers will not be tended to increase substantially salaries and wages in the next year, despite the growth of labor efficiency. As to the budget sphere workers, due to the crisis, in 2010 there will not be an indexation of their salaries out of budget funds and starting from January 2011 the very notion of “budget organization” ceases to exist. The end of 2011 and 2012 will be remarkable for the parliamentary and presidential elections, due to which increase in salaries of certain budget sphere workers cannot be excluded. On the other hand, a limiting factor of an official salary growth may be gain in tariff rates of insurance contributions to extra-budgetary funds, planned for 2011, the funds that, starting from 2010, replaced payments of the Unified Social Tax to the budget. Considering drop in real salary in 2009, according to our estimations, this index will increase in 2010 by 3.8%. In 2011 the growth of the real salary will reach 3.1%. The growth of real income in 2010-2011 is expected at the level of 3.6-4.1%. According to our calculations, in 2010-2011 household consumption may have higher growth pace than real income of households. The reasons for that is so called “delayed” consumption of goods and services due to the crisis, and also considerably advanced ratio of household savings during the crisis. Thus, according to Rosstat, the share of money income of households in deposits or in securities, as well as changes in debt under credits and immovable property acquisition in 2009 amounted to 14.5% against a 10.8% average in 2002-2007. The maximum value of this indicator was reached in February 2010 (18.1%), after which a certain decrease in savings ratio followed: to 16.1% in May 2010 (against 17.1% in May 2009).

Balance of Payments, Exchange Rate As it was already mentioned before, the growth of import will outpace exports in 2010-2011. Nonetheless, the expected rather high prices for the main goods of the Russian export, oil, gas and metals, will allow maintaining positive trade balance, as well as positive balance of the current account. According to our estimations, balance of goods and services in 2010 will make $133 bn and in 2011, as a result of import increase, it will go down to $112 bn. Assuming that the balance of income and current transfers in this and the next years will equal to $47 bn, we forecast that the current account balance will come to $87 bn (6% of GDP) in 2010 and $65 bn (4% of GDP) in 2011. Considerable export income as well as expected capital inflow will contribute to the upward pressure on the ruble exchange rate. On the other hand, persisting uncertainty regarding development of crisis of the sovereign debt and financial sector situation in Europe as well as other shocks due to unsteady recovery of the global economy may lead to insignificant temporary weakening of the Russian currency. Considering less significant but continued interference of CBR in exchange rate formation we expect that average annual value of the dual currency basket will make RUR 34.2 in 2010 and will drop to RUR 32.6 in 2011. Assuming that the average annual dollar exchange rate in the current and the next year will be at 1.29 USD/EUR, RUR/USD rate will be 30.2 and 28.9 in 2010 and 2011 accordingly.

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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Current account, GDP% 11 10 9

GDP%

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Actual

Basic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Optimistic scenario

2013

Money Aggregate, Inflation and Interest Rate Policy After the slump witnessed and accompanied by devaluation in the end of 2008 – beginning of 2009, the demand for money and monetary aggregates started their recovery in H2 of 2009 as a result of foreign currency market stabilization and growth in economic activity. In January-May 2010 average monthly growth rate of M2 was close to pre-crises figures (30.7% yoy). Such high growth rates are undoubtedly to great extent connected with the low base effect. Besides, money base growth is contributed by renewed, in the previous year, growth of international reserves as the CBR aims at smoothing the ruble exchange rate fluctuations. We expect that in H2 demand for money backed by growing economic activity will continue to go up and by the end of 2010 М2 money supply will gain 24-25%. In 2011, according to our estimations, due to lack of base effect and lower economic growth pace, М2 increase may reach 22%. Slower pace of consumer prices growth seen since H2 of 2009 resulted from reduced demand and global trend of inflation decrease in the current crisis. In Q3, according to expectations of CMR, stabilization may take place and in Q4 annual inflation index increase is also possible owing to recovered demand and money supply growth in the end of 2009 – beginning of 2010. By the end of 2010 inflation of consumer prices may amount to 6.8%. The same factors will contribute to the further price increase in H1 of the next year. By the end of 2011 we expect the inflation to equal 7.1%. According to CMR estimations, when taking its decisions on adjusting key interest rates CBR takes into account expected values of the main macroeconomic indicators: inflation, real GDP and real exchange rate. It can even be mentioned that CBR decisions on interest rate adjustment are defined by a certain rule of monetary policy that may be assessed. Recently, the importance of the exchange rate for CBR interest rate dynamics has decreased, that is explained, in particular, by the necessity to stabilize the economy and attempts of CBR to switch to a more flexible exchange rate. At present, based on the expected values of the main macroeconomic indicactors, the refinancing rate is close to the value defined by the monetary policy rule. Considering stabilization and, possibly, inflation growth, as well as lower risks in the global financial markets, CBR interest rates may go up closer to the end of this year (for further details see the report of CMR of Sberbank “What does the Bank of Russia target?” in Russian). On the other hand, the growth of interest rates may contribute to a new carry trade turn and, consequently, put additional pressure on ruble exchange rate increase. Based on which, it can be concluded that if there will be any gain in interest rates, it won’t be significant.

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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Increase in M2 and Inflation, % YoY 60

18

50

16

Basic forecas scenario

40

14 12

30

10 20 8 10 0 -10

Increase in M2 with the lag of 5 quarters, % yoy (left)

6

Inflation, % yoy (right)

2

4

2013Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3 2013Q1

2011Q1

2011Q3

2010Q3

2010Q1

2009Q3

2009Q1

2008Q3

2008Q1

2007Q1 2007Q3

2007Q3

2007Q1

2006Q3

2006Q1

2005Q3

0 2005Q1

-20

Years 2012-2013 Undoubtedly, a significant uncertainty consisting in possibility of various shocks as well as in future structural changes in the Russian and world economies calls for considering any medium-term forecasts with great caution. Nonetheless, we assume that considering the depth and scale of the world crisis in 2008-2009 the economic growth in Russia within the next three years will be lower than during the pre-crisis period: 3.7-4% in 2012-2013 (according to our basic scenario). There are reasons to suppose that the Russian monetary authorities and the government have recognized on the whole the importance of maintaining the inflation at a rather low level, in the context of world experience. Our model calculations show that annual growth rates of money supply and inflation in 2012-2013 will make about 23% and 7.5% accordingly. At the same time we assume that great adherence of monetary authorities to inflation targeting and increased credibility to such policy on the part of economic agents will lead to decrease in inflation expectations and, as a matter of fact, lower actual inflation figures might be achieved within this time period.

III. OTHER FORECAST SCENARIOS Pessimistic Forecast Scenario Facing suppressed world demand and lower oil prices the Russian economy will also demonstrate lower indices, close to stagnation. In 2010 the economic growth with make 3% having gone down to 1% in 2011. In 2012-2013 growth rate will amount to around 2-2.5% a year. In the pessimistic scenario the economy goes back to the pre-crisis level of GDP physical volume only by end-2013. Limited contributions of export revenues together with import growth, though slow, will entail devaluation of the equilibrium real exchange rate of ruble which estimates are based on current account balance. In such case we expect that CBR will not interfere in gradual ruble devaluation, and the cost of the dual currency basket will make RUR 35-36 in 2010-11. In 2012-2013, ruble exchange rate against the dual currency basket will reduce to 39-41 RUR/USD. Moderately low oil prices ($60 a barrel) and gradual ruble weakening will allow positive balance of goods and services and current account balance. Moreover, in the pessimistic scenario, import, due to ruble devaluation, will grow with such a slow pace that in 2010-2011 current account balance may amount to the figure comparable to that in the basic scenario.

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

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Actual and Estimated Ruble Rate Against Dual Currency Basket

Actual and Estimated Ruble Rate Against US Dollar

42

40

40

38 36 34

36

RUR/USD

34 32

32 30 28

30

26

28

24

Basic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Basic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Optimistic scenario

Actual

Optimistic scenario

Actual

2013Q1

2013Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2010Q1 2010Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2008Q3

2007Q3 2008Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2005Q1

2013Q3

2012Q3

2013Q1

2012Q1

2011Q1

2011Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2008Q3

2008Q1

2007Q1

2007Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

22

26

2005Q3

RUR/USD-EUR

38

Ruble devaluation may result in higher inflation pressure: up to 7.5% in 2010 and 9% in 2012-2013. In 2011 consumer price growth will be determined by continued ruble depreciation, on the one part, and by stagnation of economic activity, on the other part, thus, in the end of the year the inflation may reach about 7%.

Optimistic Forecast Scenario Higher growth rates of the global economy will also enable Russia’s increased dynamics, but even in this scenario economic growth figures are lower than before the crisis: 5-5.5% a year in 2010-2011 and 4-5% a year in 2012-2013. The pre-crisis GDP physical volume, in the optimistic scenario, can be reached as early as in the middle of 2011. The optimistic scenario assumes also a large export income, current account balance and stronger ruble, average exchange rate of which may reach 26.9 RUR/USD in 2011, and take its strong position at 24 RUR/USD in 2013. Influenced by counteracting factors, i.e. higher money supply growth rate and more significant ruble strengthening rates, consumer prices growth rate in the optimistic scenario turn out to be comparable with inflation figures in the basic scenario. At the same time the calculations show that the monetary policy admitting a more accelerated ruble strengthening allows achievement of lower inflation.

Forecast of the Real GDP Physical Volume Seasonally Adjusted 135 130

Q1 2006 = 100

125 120 115 110 105 100

Actual Pessimistic scenario

© Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

2013Q1

2013Q3

2012Q3

2012Q1

2011Q3

2011Q1

2010Q3

2010Q1

2009Q3

2009Q1

2008Q3

2008Q1

2007Q1

2007Q3

2006Q3

2006Q1

95

Basic scenario Optimistic scenario

8

APPENDIX 1 – MACROECONOMIC FORECAST OF CMR OF SBERBANK FOR 2010-2013 Basic Scenario 2011 2012

2013

Optimistic Scenario 2010 2011 2012

2013

60.0 4.0 1.10 -5

60.0 4.5 1.20 0

81 10.0 1.31 8.2

90 8.1 1.32 25.2

95 8 1.35 35

95 8 1.38 40

0.9 46.4 6.9 35.6

1.8 51.6 8.9 37.4

2.5 57.1 8.6 37.5

5.2 45.1 6.6 29.7

5.5 51.4 7.1 26.9

4.7 58.3 6.9 24.8

4.1 65.5 7.5 23.9

35

35.6

39.1

40.9

33.8

30.7

28.7

27.9

3.9

3.9

1.0

1.1

2.6

7.7

4.0

5.0

4.5

5.2 22.9 6.9 5.4

6.3 22.9 6.7 6.2

1.88 15.3 -0.8 2.0

0.66 11.5 0.9 2.5

1.68 17.4 1.6 1.9

3.26 20.2 3.6 3.1

4.5 29 3.0 3.6

6.6 29.8 11.5 8.2

7.2 26.1 9.5 7.4

7.7 24.4 7.8 7.7

468.3 356 112.4 65.4 4.0 5.7 3.1 22970

526.9 411.9 115.1 66.2 3.4 4.4 5.7 26088

580.2 463.8 116.4 67.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 29919

401.5 281.5 120 73.7 5.5 4.0 3.1 20619

381.4 287.7 93.7 46.7 3.7 3.0 -0.2 22104

391.6 305.1 86.5 44.1 3.3 1.6 1.4 24341

407.8 333.7 74.1 31.9 2.2 2.5 3.0 27227

452.9 308.7 144.2 106.3 7.0 5.1 4.2 20802

535.5 392.2 143.3 119.3 6.4 7.6 5.4 23539

601.4 467.9 133.5 103.5 4.6 6.0 8.1 27259

654.3 536.9 117.4 87.4 3.3 6.2 8.5 31693

9.8 48.7

9.3 52.5

6.7 57.5

6.4 41.6

10.8 43.5

8.4 45.9

7.6 49.9

14 44.9

10 51.2

6.8 56.9

7.5 63.0

2008

2009

2010

94.7 3.5 1.47 -132.8

60.0 -11.5 1.40 -56.8

75 7.4 1.29 -0.7

75 6.1 1.29 9

$/Rub exchange rate, average annual

5.9 41.4 13.3 24.8

-7.9 39.1 8.8 31.7

4.4 44.5 6.8 30.2

Average annual value of the dual .currency basket, RUR

30.1

37.3

Industrial production (new index), %

0.6

Real income, % Money supply (M2), % Investments into fixed capital, % Retail turnover, %

Pessimistic Scenario 2011 2012

2013

2010

83 6.5 1.32 20

86 6.5 1.33 28

66 3.3 1.22 -12

60.0 3.0 1.00 -15

3.6 49.2 7.1 28.9

3.9 56.0 7.4 27.8

3.7 62.8 7.6 27.4

3.0 43.5 7.5 31.8

34.2

32.6

31.9

31.4

-9.3

6.4

2.5

3.9

4.5 1.7 13.3 14.1

1.6 16.3 -16.3 -5.3

3.6 24.6 1.6 3.1

4.1 22.3 7.3 5.8

522.8 366.9 155.9 102.3 2.2 11.0 11.7 17227

345 252.9 92.1 47.5 4.4 -7.6 -1.9 18801

433.4 300 133.4 87.1 6.0 4.7 3.8 20732

-7 32.6

13.9 40.2

11.4 43.9

Assumptions Urals, $/bbl World trade growth,% $/Euro exchange rate Capital inlow, bn USD Forecast s Real GDP, % Nominal GDP, trillion Rub Inflation (CPI), %

Export of goods and services, bn USD Import of goods and services, bn USD Balance of goods and services, bn USD

Current account, bn USD Current account, GDP% Consumption of households, % Real wage, % Nominal wage, Rub Producer price index (PPI), % Economy monetization (M2, GDP%)

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