June 2013

Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

June 2013

Current Conditions:

Regional Highlights

Generally stable conditions & better than long-term trends - except CAR

June 2013

Current Conditions: Central African Republic

Central African Republic

FAO/WFP

In the areas most affected by the March Crisis • Abandoned harvests, stored food exhausted or stolen, restricted movement • Coping: 1 meal a day (increasingly leaves or wild foods), consume stored seeds and sale of HH assets • Outlook: depend on security, movement, performance of local markets and local labour Agricultural production expected to be low in 2013 LRA active in south-east Sudanese refugees adding to hardship of host populations in north

March Crisis exacerbated conditions of extreme poverty leaving almost 2M in rapidly deteriorating food security conditions with few coping options

June 2013

Current Conditions: DRC

Democratic Republic of Congo

GTT WFP

• Current population in IPC Phase 3 & 4 is lower than 2012 but comparable to previous years. • Poor diversity of diets, high prevalence of common illnesses, and extreme poverty with few livelihood options are common. • Adding to these conditions, a lack of infrastructure reduces the performance of markets, limits economic opportunities and opportunities for livelihoods diversification. • Nutrition assessments in 2013 indicate GAM rates of 9 to 15% in Katanga, South Kivu and Maniema.

Extreme and widespread poverty result in large proportions of DRC in conditions of acute insecurity chronically

June 2013

Current Conditions:

Burundi

Burundi

GTT

• nearly 35% of households in the central plateau have farms of less than 0.2ha and agricultural production per capita is the lowest in the country. 54% of families have food consumption scores of poor to marginal • In the east and the central plateau chronic malnutrition was reported at 54.7% and GAM at 6.5 to 9.2% depending on the season

Extreme poverty and population density driving chronically acute food insecurity conditions in the east and central regions

June 2013

Current Conditions: Djibouti

Djibouti

GTT

• 75% of the country’s population lives in Ville de Djibouti. The peri-urban area of Balbala is home to a large proportion of that population. • Living and hygiene conditions in Balbala are very poor. • Households there are often rural migrants with few economic opportunities. • A trial urban IPC analysis suggests that most of the areas in Balbala may be IPC phase 3

These outcomes are of a trial urban IPC process and are illustrative only . It can indicate extreme disparity within an urban area as well as the levels of food insecurity in urban populations

Nationally, Djiboutienne food security conditions are dominated by urban rather than rural issues. Urban food insecurity is likely as extreme as in the rural areas

June 2013

Current Conditions:

Regional Highlights

Ethiopia FEWSNET Uganda FAO • Early cessation of rains in Karamoja has raised concerns and led to an assessment mission

• Belg harvest (June/July) is expected to be below average due to the late onset of the belg rains. These conditions are raising concerns for poor households who must purchase food despite limited income opportunities.

• Current kiremt rains are hoped to lead to a good meher harvest later in 2013

June 2013

Current Conditions:

Hotspots & Watch

HOTSPOT

CAR (Conflict, Displacement, Access) FAO/WFP Food security assessments highlight immediate impacts of insecurity on current coping options as well as consequences of the prolonged crisis on the current and upcoming harvests

WATCH

DRC (Conflict, Displacement) GTT • Insecurity continues to drive food and nutrition insecurity in North Kivu and Katanga

June 2013

Current Conditions:

Population in IPC Phase 3 & 4

Country

Population in IPC Phase 3 & 4

Burundi

76,450

CAR Djibouti

2,000,000

Source GTT Aug 12 GTI Jun 13

70,000

IPC/FSC Nov 12

DRC

6,400,000

GTT Jun 13

Ethiopia

2,400,000

Kenya

(require food aid) GoE Mar 13

0

KFFSG IPC Mar 13

Somalia

1,050,000

FSNAU Feb 13

South Sudan

1,197,144

LAF Mar 13

Sudan

4,253,112

IPC Mar 13

80,000

FSSG Feb 13

Uganda Total

17,526,706

Table: FSNWG

Increase from May 2013 due to CAR crisis. Almost half population in Crisis & Emergency from CAR and DRC

June 2013

CLIMATE:

Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Sea Surface Temperatures reflect neutral ENSO conditions – no evidence for a La Nino / La Nina event?

June 2013

CLIMATE:

Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Below average SSTs emerging over eastern Pacific and west Indian Ocean – drier than normal conditions for Horn of Africa later this year?

June 2013

CLIMATE:

ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) Prediction

60% or greater chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in coming months If non-neutral conditions emerge, La Niña may be more likely than El Niño

June 2013

CLIMATE:

GHA Consensus Climate Outlook for June to August 2013

Zones I , V (Grey): Climatology (based on historical record i.e. dry season)

Zones III, IV VII (Yellow): Increased likelihood of below normal to near normal rainfall Zones II, VI, VIII (Green): Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall

Possibly below normal rainfall in South Sudan, Darfur, and north Uganda. Possibly normal rainfall for Ethiopia (kiremt/meher), south Uganda, Sudan, and north Eritrea

June 2013

Regional Food Prices Prices of coarse grains in key markets in Eastern Africa remained stable or declined in May to maintain the trend of the previous month. •

Kenya: wholesale prices for maize in May declined in Kisumu and Nairobi, but increased in Eldoret; but remained above the five-year average. The decline was attributed to release of stocks by famers (sale to purchase inputs) and by traders in anticipation of inflow of new harvest from Uganda (WFP, Kenya Country Office Price Update, June 2013).

•

Uganda: wholesale price of maize in May in Kampala fell but remained close to the level in April. This was due to sufficient supply on markets, which in part reflected reduced imports from South Sudan and favourable prospects for first season harvest (WFP, Uganda Market Update, April 2013 & EAGCRATIN Market Analysis, May 2013).

•

Ethiopia: prices of the main cereals (maize, sorghum & wheat) in past three months (March, April & May) were high but stable. In May, the price of maize rose by 6%-8% in consumer markets but by 2%3% in source markets. The price of sorghum also rose, but by lower percentages compared to maize. These reflected the start of the lean season and below normal expectation of the belg production (WFP Ethiopia Market Watch, May 2013).

•

Rwanda: During May, prices for beans reduced from US$480 to US$ 364 per mt, while maize increased from US$ 406 to US$ 568 per mt (WFP Rwanda Executive Brief May 2013 & EAGC-RATIN Market Analysis, May 2013).

•

Burundi: prices of main staples in Bujumbura markets were relatively stable, but with slight increases attributed to adjustments in demand and supply conditions (EAGC-RATIN Market Analysis, May 2013). Sources: FEWSNET & GIEWS, May 2013

With some exceptions, the prices for main staples across key regional markets in May declined or remained stable.

June 2013

Global Food Price Index

•

Global Food Price Index in May 2013 remained at same level in April; above the level one year ago (May 2012); however, this is significantly higher than the indices in 2009 and 2010; but below the level in 2011 .

•

Cereal Price Index rose for the first time in May, which reversed the trend of decline for more than six months; and this brings the price index to the level one year ago. The increase was caused by the rebound in maize prices, a reaction to tightening export supplies and planting delays in the United States.

•

Price Indices for Sugar, Meat, and Fats & Oils maintained the trend of decline or remained stable; while the index for Dairy fell, reversing the trend of increase of nearly one year. Source: FAO GIEWS, June 2013

Global food price index remains stable, but rose slightly above 2012 level

June 2013

REFUGEES and Asylum Seekers: Country

Numbers

Refugees / Asylum Seekers (as of MAR 1, 2013)

Current (number of people)

Kenya

607,111

594,106

Ethiopia

388,805

397,421

Somalia

10,774

No update

Tanzania

101,540

No update

Burundi

48,918

No update

Rwanda

66,989

No update

Uganda

239,031

204,751

South Sudan

202,616

223,172

Sudan

159,877

No update

Djibouti

22,667

23,125

Eritrea

3,614

No update

Highlights May June

Influx of +/- 300 in May

Source: UNHCR More than 1.8M refugees and asylum seekers in the region

June 2013

REFUGEES: •

Nutrition and food security issues

South Sudan: about 13,000 people affected by a cattle raid in Ulang county, Upper Nile State

•

South Sudan: some JAM findings/recommendations Nutrition 

General Food Ration requires inclusion of Fortified Blended Food



Doro: Blanket Supplementary Feeding Program for children under 2 recommended (poor IYCF practices and high anemia rate)

Food security 

kitchen gardens recommended (conditions allow and dietary diversity low)



Improve coordination with relevant government department of agriculture and advocate for refugee access to land for cultivation

Source: UNHCR

FSN issues for refugees in South Sudan are long-term vs acute

June 2013

NUTRITION CAR (OCHA 31May 2013) • Measles outbreak in April. • More than 100,000 children under 5 vaccinated against measles, dewormed and received Vitamin A Supplementation.

Somalia (FSNAU March-April 2013) • GAM 15-30 %in Bakool Pastoral, Juba riverine, Southern Gedo and Mataban district since Gu 2012 will be sustained; • Cholera is endemic in Somalia and children < 2 yrs are 74 % of cases

• Special study in Northern Somalia (based on nutrition data from March-December 2011) indicates a significant association between mother’s education and stunting.

Kenya:

DRC GTT • Nutrition surveys in 2013 in South Kivu, Maniema and Katanga report GAM rates between 9 and 15%.

• Garissa: SMART survey (April 2013) stunting 17.1%, GAM 12%. HH milk production /consumption increased , high prices and poor availability of fruits and vegetables led to low consumption- (Mercy Corps) • Samburu: SMART Survey (February 2013) stunting 35.3%, GAM 10.9%. Children (6-23 months) mostly fed on milk products, carbohydrates and fats/oils, a diet lacking in minerals and vitamins. (World Vision)

June 2013

Outlook:

July to September 2013

Current conditions are likely to remain stable over the coming months •

Seasonally improving conditions will be seen in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda

•

Rains in South Sudan and Sudan mark the end of the hunger period

•

Conditions in DRC are neither expected to deteriorate nor improve

CAR remains a focus of concern as conditions are expected to deteriorate

Outlook across the region is seasonally stable

June 2013

Upcoming Events

Next FSNWG Meeting: Thursday, July 18, 2013 FSNWG/IAWG ½ Day Workshop Changing Livelihoods – Implications for Programming June 27 – 28 Early Warning Systems Rwanda Analysis July 8 - 16 Livestock/Pastoralism WG Livestock Feeds and Feed Security July 16