Export p Opportunity pp y Scan for ECOWAS countries

Michael Freudenberg Market Analysis Section, ITC

Introduction The problem: – Exports of many ECOWAS countries are concentrated on few products and markets (cost, quantity, quality, time, …) – Diversifying the economy and broadening the export base towards high-growth sectors is key for future growth. – Governments often need to complement general (“horizontal”) ( horizontal ) policies that improve the overall business environment by more targeted, sector-specific policies. ITC’s contribution: – Export Opportunity Scan to assist in the selection of priority sectors – Key questions: • What are promising industries or products? • What are attractive markets?

Many ECOWAS countries are concentrated on only few products and markets Product concentration: Share of the top three exported products (% ), 2005

0 10

High product diversification Low market diversification

20

High product and market diversification

30

Senegal

40

Togo Côte d'Ivoire

50

Low p product and market diversification Ghana

60 70

Gambia Cape Verde Guinea

Liberia

Burkina Faso

80

Benin

Niger

Sierra Leone

Mali

90 Guinea-Bissau

100 100

90

Low product diversification High market diversification

Nigeria

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

M k t concentration: Market t ti Sh Share off the th top t three th exportt markets k t (% ), ) 2005 Source:Trade Map. The size of the bubbles correspond to the countries' exports in 2005, ranging from USD 5 million (Gambia) to 47 billion (Nigeria).

0

Important industries for the ECOWAS region and individual countries Industry (Rank of export value))

ECOWAS exports ( S million)) (USD

Number of exporters

1. Fuel

47,206

11

Nigeria (97), Cape Verde (48), Côte d'Ivoire (28), Senegal (21)

2. Cocoa

3,609

9

Ghana (49), Togo (38), Côte d'Ivoire (29)

3. Ships

1,697

7

Liberia (85)

4. Ores

1,159

6

Guinea (59), Niger (44)

5. Cotton

881

11

Mali (83), Burkina Faso (81), Benin (59)

6. Vehicles

742

10

---

7. Wood

691

11

Ghana (13)

8. Fruit and nuts

519

9

Guinea-Bissau ((92))

9. Rubber

452

8

Liberia (11)

10. Seafood

423

13

Gambia (16), Senegal (16), Cape Verde (13)

11 Inorg 11. Inorg. chemicals

407

3

Guinea (17), (17) Senegal (13)

12. Precious stones

361

10

Sierra Leone (62), Niger (21)

28. Vegetables

74

7

Gambia (10)

43 B 43. Beverages

24

7

G bi (42) Gambia

51. Railway

15

2

Cape Verde (15)

Source: TradeMap. Data refer to 2005.

Countries where the industry represents more than 10% (50%) of exports (% off country’s ’ exports))

H How tto select l t sectors t

?

Selection of sectors All sectors (HS2) Animals ((01)) Meat (02) Seafood (03)

Export Potential Asessment Export Opportunity Scan Export p p performance

Dairy prod. (04) Prod. of animal origin (05)

Fruit and nuts (08) Coffee, tea and spices (09) (...)

1. Fuel 2. Ores 3. Ships 4. Cocoa

World markets

Live plants (06) Vegetables (07)

Priority sectors

5. Cotton 5. Iron and steel

Domestic supply conditions S Socio-economic impact

7. Fruits and nuts 8 Precious stones 8. 9. Machinery 10. Rubber (…)

How to identify yp promising g sectors in a region? g Promising industries Current Export Performance Size

Dynamism

Export value

Export growth

World market share

Absolute change

Exporter Diversification Nb. of significant exporters Share of top exporter in region

World Market Trade Balance

Net exports Relative trade balance

Size

Dynamism

World imports

World import growth Absolute g change

Utilization of composite indices to combine indicators with different units •

Standardised to range between 0 (low) and 100 (high)

•

Averaged to obtain an overall index

Upper threshold

100

L Lower th threshold h ld

0

ECOWAS Export E t performance f • 1. Size • 2. Dynamism • 3. Trade balance • 4. Diversification

ECOWAS Export performance: 1 Size 1. Industry

1a. ECOWAS exports to world

1b. Share of ECOWAS in world exports

1. Size

USD million

Index

%

Index

Index

Cotton

881

100

2.7

100

100

Cocoa

3 609 3,609

100

16 9 16.9

100

100

Fuel

47,206

100

3.6

100

100

Ores

1,159

100

2.0

100

100

Ships

1,697

100

2.4

100

100

Fruit and nuts

519

59

1.6

80

70

Wood

691

78

0.7

36

57

Salt and cement

293

33

1.4

68

51

Inorganic chemicals

407

46

1.1

55

51

Seafood

423

48

09 0.9

42

45

Photographic goods

72

0

0.0

0

0

Wool, animal hair

64

0

0.0

0

0

(…)

ECOWAS Export performance: 2 Dynamism 2. Industry

2a. Absolute change in ECOWAS exports

2b. Growth of ECOWAS exports to world

Growth of world imports p

2. Dynamism

USD million

Index

% p.a.

Index

% p.a.

Index

909

100

32

66

35

83

26,517

100

26

55

33

78

Fruit and nuts

341

98

19

42

14

70

Rubber

270

78

28

59

16

69

Cocoa

1,877

100

17

39

17

69

Cotton

348

100

15

35

7

68

Ores

475

100

14

33

29

67

Machinery

99

30

58

100

12

65

Vehicles

93

28

74

100

13

64

246

71

27

57

18

64

Furniture

-17,686

0

-17

0

14

0

Aluminium

-75,264

0

-25

0

14

0

Ships Fuel

Inorganic chemicals (…)

ECOWAS Export performance: 3 Trade balance 3. Industry

3a. Trade balance

3b. Relative trade balance

3. Trade balance

USD million

Index

% of trade

Index

Index

Cocoa

3,596

100

99.5

100

100

Ores

1,156

100

99.6

100

100

484

99

91.0

96

97

40,863

100

86.6

93

97

Wood

598

100

85.6

93

96

Leather

199

88

98.2

99

94

Precious stones

324

93

82.5

91

92

Nickel

0

81

100.0

100

91

Furskins

0

81

100.0

100

91

Pulp of wood

1

81

88.7

94

88

Machinery

-3,518

0

-92.2

4

2

Elect. Equipment

-3,152

0

-93.6

3

1

Cereals

-2,244 2 244

0

-95.7 95 7

2

0

Fruit and nuts Fuel

( ) (…)

ECOWAS Export performance: 4 Diversification 4. Industry y

4a. Significant exporters

4b. Share of top exporter in ECOWAS exports

4. Diversification

Number (0 to 15)

Index

%

Index

Index

Cotton

11

100

27

99

100

Iron and steel

13

100

22

100

100

Machinery

13

100

27

99

100

Precious stones

10

91

38

82

86

Apparatus

8

73

26

100

86

Wood

11

100

49

65

83

Electronic equipment

11

100

50

64

82

Oil seed

9

82

43

75

79

Seafood

13

100

54

57

79

Copper

8

73

40

79

76

Umbrellas

0

0

91

0

0

Furskins

0

0

100

0

0

(…)

ECOWAS Export performance: O Overall ll ranking ki off industries i d i Industry label

Size (Rank)

Dynamism (Rank)

Diversification (Rank)

Trade balance (Rank)

Export index for ECOWAS

1. Cotton

1

6

1

13

88

2 Cocoa 2.

1

4

21

1

84

3. Fuel

1

2

38

3

84

4. Ores

1

7

42

1

79

5. Fruit and nuts

6

3

13

3

77

6. Wood

7

72

6

5

64

7. Rubber

14

4

15

23

62

8. Inorganic chemicals

8

9

51

16

60

9. Ships

1

1

55

88

59

10. Precious stones

16

60

4

7

57

90. Umbrellas

62

37

91

55

22

91. Impregnated p g textile fabric

62

51

89

39

20

92. Misc. Manufact. Pr.

62

85

82

55

15

(…)

ECOWAS Export performance: O Overall ll ranking ki off products d Product (HS 6 code)

ECOWAS Export Index

C h Cashew nuts, t iin shell, h ll ffresh h or d dried i d (080131)

100

Cotton seeds, whether or not broken (120720)

96

Cotton, not carded or combed (520100)

95

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, nes, whether or not broken (120799)

94

Technically specified natural rubber (TSNR) (400122)

94

Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, fresh or dried (080450)

94

Natural rubber in other forms nes (400129)

93

Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted (180100)

93

Waste and scrap, p of tinned iron or steel ((720430))

92

Cuttle fish and squid,shelled or not,frozen,dried,salted or in brine (030749)

92

Octopus, frozen, dried, salted or in brine (030759)

91

Aircraft engines, engines spark spark-ignition ignition reciprocating or rotary type (840710)

91

Cocoa butter, fat and oil (180400)

91

Veneer, tropical woods nes, 2500 cc (870333) (…)

Low ECOWAS export and world market indices: ( ) (…)

High ECOWAS export index (top 100) High Hi h ECOWAS exportt and world market indices: Beauty or make-up, sunscreen or sun tan preparations (330499) Floating g or submersible drilling g or p production p platforms ((890520)) Propane, liquefied (271112) Gold in other semi-manufactured form non-monetary (710813) Natural gas, liquefied (271111) Diamonds non-industrial unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted (710231) Aluminium oxide nes (281820) Petroleum oils oils,o/than o/than crude etc (271000) Copper ores and concentrates (260300) Petroleum oils, crude (270900) Butanes, liquefied (271113) Ferrous waste and scrap, iron or steel, nes (720449) High ECOWAS export index, but low world market index: C h Cashew nuts, t iin shell, h ll ffresh h or d dried i d (080131) Cotton seeds (120720) Cotton, not carded or combed (520100)

How to identify performing ECOWAS exporters f a given for i product d or industry i d All countries

Best performers

Benin Burkina Faso

Size of exporter

Cape Verde Côte d'Ivoire Gambia

2. Ghana 3 Guinea 3. Guinea-Bissau Bissau

Dynamism

4. Benin 5. Nigeria

Ghana Guinea

1. Côte d'Ivoire

6. Burkina Faso

Trade balance

7. Guinea

Guinea-Bissau Gu ea ssau

8 Mali 8.

Liberia

9. Senegal

Mali

Other criteria

10. Liberia

Niger

11. Sierra Leone

Nigeria

12. Gambia

Senegal g

13. Niger g

Sierra Leone

14. Togo

Togo

15. Cape Verde

Best performing exporters in i d industries i with i h strong ECOWAS export performance f Industry

Best performers in the world

(Rank of Export index)

Best performers in ECOWAS (rank of export index)

1. Cotton

India, USA, Pakistan

Burkina Faso (7), Mali (17), Benin (20)

2. Cocoa

Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia

Ghana (1), Côte d'Ivoire (2), Nigeria (6)

3. Fuel

Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria

Nigeria (6), Côte d'Ivoire (52), Ghana (55)

4. Ores

Peru, India, Australia

Guinea (16), Sierra Leone (26), Liberia (26)

5 F 5. Fruit it and d nuts t

I Iran, Turkey, T k New N Zealand Z l d

Côte d d'Ivoire Ivoire (25), Guinea-Bissau Guinea Bissau (26), Ghana (32)

6. Wood

Brazil, Russia, Malaysia

Guinea (42), Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana (46)

7 Rubber 7.

Indonesia Thailand, Indonesia, Thailand China

Liberia (27) (27), Côte d'Ivoire d Ivoire (33), (33) Guinea (38)

8. Inorg. chemicals

Australia, Netherlands, Jamaica, Germany

Guinea (20), Senegal (24), Sierra Leone (48)

9. Ships

China, Korea, Japan, Italy

Liberia (20), Niger (31), Benin, Mali (38)

10 Prec 10. Prec. stones

Botswana; Canada, Canada South Africa, Africa Israel

Sierra Leone (28), (28) Niger (31), (31) Senegal (57)

Best performing ECOWAS exporters in i d t i with industries ith strong t ECOWAS exportt performance f Industry (Rank of Export index)

Top performing ECOWAS countries (Rank in the world of Export Index)

1. Cotton

Burkina Faso (7)

Mali (17)

Benin (20)

2. Cocoa

Ghana (1)

Côte d'Ivoire (2)

Nigeria (6)

3. Fuel

Nigeria (6)

Côte d'Ivoire (52)

Ghana (55)

4. Ores

Guinea (16)

Sierra Leone (26)

Liberia (26)

Côte d'Ivoire ((25))

Guinea-Bissau ((26))

Ghana ((32))

6. Wood

Guinea (42)

Côte d'Ivoire (46)

Ghana (46)

7. Rubber

Liberia (27)

Côte d'Ivoire (33)

Guinea (38)

8. Inorganic chemicals

Guinea (20)

Senegal (24)

Sierra Leone (48)

9. Ships

Liberia (20)

Niger (31)

Benin, Mali (38)

Sierra Leone (28)

Niger (31)

Senegal (57)

5. Fruit and nuts

10. Precious stones ( ) (…)

Best performing ECOWAS exporters in main products in main sectors (1) Industries (Rank of Export Index)

Top 3 products (ranked by Export Index) Cotton, not carded or combed

1. Cotton

2. Cocoa

Burkina Faso (5)

Mali (6)

Benin (10)

Mali (11)

Benin (20)

Senegal (26)

Cotton uncombed

Nigeria (3)

Burkina Faso (34)

..

Cocoa beans, beans whole or broken, raw or roasted

Gh Ghana (1)

Ni i (1) Nigeria

G i Guinea (9)

Cocoa butter, fat and oil

Côte d'Ivoire (3)

Nigeria (13)

Mali (13)

Cocoa paste wholly or partly defatted

Ghana (4)

Nigeria (7)

..

Côte d'Ivoire (1)

Ghana (1)

Nigeria (14)

Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

Nigeria (7)

Ghana (22)

Guinea (46)

Butanes, liquefied

Nigeria (6)

Ghana (37)

Senegal (81)

Natural gas, liquefied

Nigeria (9)

..

..

Cotton waste

Cocoa paste not defatted

3. Fuel

Top performing ECOWAS countries (Rank in the world of Export Index)

Best performing ECOWAS exporters in main products in main sectors (2) Industries ((Rank of Export Index)

4. Ores

Top 3 products ( k db (ranked by Export E t Index) I d ) Zirconium ores and concentrates

Nigeria (7)

Sierra Leone (8)

Aluminium ores and concentrates

Guinea ((3))

Ghana ((8))

Sierra Leone ((11))

Guinea (12)

Liberia (18)

Ghana (18)

Côte d'Ivoire (1)

Guinea-Bissau (1)

Ghana (4)

Burkina Faso (14)

Mali (15)

Senegal (15)

Ghana (3)

Côte d'Ivoire (9)

Liberia (22)

Côte d d'Ivoire Ivoire (2)

Ghana (4)

Guinea (12)

Ghana (20)

Guinea (26)

Benin (31)

Wood (lumber) continuously shaped non-coniferous non coniferous (hardwood)

Côte d'Ivoire (22)

Ghana (26)

Mali (30)

Technically specified natural rubber (TSNR)

Côte d'Ivoire (4)

Liberia (8)

Ghana (9)

Natural rubber in other forms

Côte d d'Ivoire Ivoire (3)

Liberia (6)

Nigeria (8)

Liberia (3)

Côte d'Ivoire (8)

Senegal, Mali (14)

Precious metal ores and concentrates Cashew nuts, in shell, fresh or dried 5. Fruit and 5 nuts

Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens Guavas mangosteens, fresh or dried Pineapples, fresh or dried Veneer tropical woods nes Veneer, nes,