Export Bulletin. Export market insight for cereal manufacturers and processors

Home-Grown Cereals Authority July 2006 / Issue 1 Export Bulletin Export market insight for cereal manufacturers and processors Central Europe This ...
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Home-Grown Cereals Authority

July 2006 / Issue 1

Export Bulletin Export market insight for cereal manufacturers and processors

Central Europe This is the first of 5 new Export Bulletins to be published on a bi-monthly basis, each covering a key geographical region and providing updates and analysis on key export markets for UK cereal manufacturers and processors. Information is compiled by Food from Britain’s international network. Issue 1 focuses on Central Europe. Top News 2 years after EU Accession It’s been two years since the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the EU, along with Cyprus and Malta. The expansion created the largest single market for trade and investment in the world. At around 500 million consumers it is bigger that the USA and Japan combined. GDP growth in the 10 new EU countries was higher in 2005 than that of the existing member states. The newly acceded countries recorded a growth in GDP of 4.3% vs the previous year, compared with 2% growth achieved by the Western European markets. Tesco has become a leading force in the Central European region and is the number one retailer in Hungary (18% share) and Slovakia (13% share). It generated US$4.3bn in grocery sales last year across Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The retailer still has plans for further growth in the region and has just opened two new ‘Express’ stores in the Czech Republic. Czech Republic: Tesco can buy EDEKA supermarkets The Czech Anti-Trust Office recently decided that Tesco Stores CR can buy 27 supermarkets owned by the German EDEKA, which has decided to withdraw from the Czech market. Tesco Stores CR now operates 6 department stores, 28 hypermarkets and 1 supermarket in the country. Following this transaction, Tesco will further strengthen its position in the Czech market. Hungary/Poland: Aldi soon to appear in Hungary/Poland - Wal-Mart postponed market Hungarian penetration The German hard discounter Aldi Nord is planning to open its first stores in Poland early next year. The first is due to be opened in Warsaw, closely followed by more in the towns of Lódz, Poznan and in the Silesia region in the south-west, bringing the total to about 30 by spring 2007. Aldi is also going to appear soon with its Hofer store chain in Hungary, while Wal-Mart has temporarily postponed its Hungarian market entry. Wal-Mart is now expected to enter the Central and Eastern European retail scene by acquiring a retailer already present in several countries across the region. Poland: Beer is the most popular drink The beer industry is one of the fastest growing sectors in Poland and beer is by far the most popular alcoholic drink among Poles. In 2005, Poles spent £2.6bn on beer, corresponding to around 30m hl (+5% vs. 2004). The fastest growth has been registered by ‘flavoured’ beers containing a small percentage of alcohol. In 2005, Poles purchased about 601,000 hl of beer with added juice or spices (+26% vs. 2004). Meanwhile, sales of strong beer dropped by 8-9% last year.

Export Opportunities Whisky dominates current exports of cereal-related products to Central Europe and offers good potential for further export success. In the Czech Republic, due to the increase in consumption tax for alcohol and the introduction of obligatory duty stamping of spirit bottles - in order to stop sale of illegal spirits - there was a significant decline in spirit imports in 2005 with whisky imports falling 25.7%. Whisky imports from Britain declined by 38.4% but still accounted for 46% of total imports. In spite of the overall shrinking of the imported spirits market, there is still space for potential British exporters in the premium category. There is a slowly increasing demand by a gradually widening consumer segment both for well established types of whisky - best sold in specialized spirits shops - and new premium brands. Biscuits are a growing export sector, especially in the Czech Republic where import figures over the past two years show that there is still space to introduce new biscuits. The basic sub-categories are mostly occupied by traditional brands, however, there is an increasing demand for biscuits with fruits and nuts where newcomers have a better chance. Beer exports are under pressure from other international suppliers but the sector still offers opportunities. The Polish beer sector in particular is fast growing. In 2004 - the year of the EU accession - beer imports into Hungary doubled although they have since been badly affected by a green tax introduced at the beginning of 2005 on beers in disposable packaging, leading to a decline of imports in 2005 by 37% to 69,000 tonnes. Breakfast Cereals is also a crowded market but one where niche opportunities continue to present themselves. In a stagnating market, newcomers have few options to find a niche in the Hungarian breakfast cereal market, where 70-80% of breakfast cereal consumers are still families with children, and 40% are highly price sensitive, preferring the cheapest brand available. Despite this imports of breakfast cereals have shown a solid increase over the past few years. Within this, imports from Britain although still negligible, have shown some growth.

UK Exports to Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, 2005 (source HM Customs and Excise) £m

Bread, Pastry, Cakes

Breakfast Cereals




Czech Hungry Poland Czech Hungry Poland Czech Hungry Poland Czech Hungry Poland Czech Hungry Poland

2004 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.02 0.2 0.02 0.02 4.0 1.9 5.5 0.06 0.05 0.2

2005 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.01 0.02 2.4 7.5 7.3 0.08 0.03 0.1

Potential for Export % Change 04/05 (High, Medium, Low) -46% M -43% M -50% M-L 200% M -50% M-L 400% H 100% M-L -50% M-L 0% H-M -38% M 295% H-M 33% M-L 33% M-L -40% M-L -50% H-M

Retail & Foodservice Developments Czech Republic Delhaize's Delvita chain losing market share Due to the competition supermarkets are facing in the Czech retail market (suffering from the pressure of hypermarkets and discounters), the turnover of supermarket chain Delvita stagnated in 2004, while all the other large retailers increased their turnover. Delvita (part of the Belgian Delhaize group) is the only retailer operating exclusively with supermarkets.

Hungary Discount chains in expansion Discount chains operating in Hungary - Lidl, Penny Market, Plus and Profi - opened a total of 48 new stores in 2005, thus the total number of discounters (mostly located in residential areas) has risen to 434. Lidl is the main driving force of development. Discounters are especially strong in food categories generating a high turnover such as processed meat, dairy or drinks. Discounters are increasingly taking over the role of classic convenience stores or small supermarkets.

Number of Discounters in Hungary, 2004-2005 (source ACNielsen Hungary) Chain Lidl Penny Market Plus Profi Total

2004 20 142 157 67 386

2005 51 148 164 71 434

Tesco Hungary: declining sales area, moving into town centres The Hungarian retail scene has been dominated so far by large sized outlets and discounters on one hand and chained convenience stores on the other. The most recent trend however is the appearance of smaller hypermarkets with 2 - 3,000 m2 sales area (the majority of the newly opened Tesco stores belong to this category), as well as the movement of large outlets from the suburbs into the town centres. In line with this new strategy, according to recent press information, Tesco is continuing negotiations with Domus Ltd - one of Hungary's largest furniture store chains with department stores in town centres - on the possible lease of the ground floors of the establishments. Changing distribution structure for bakery products Among the different sales channels for bakery products, specialised bakeries have been so far the biggest losers of the market economy in Hungary. Five years ago, 22% of bread and basic bakery products were sold in specialised outlets, this share had declined to 10% by 2005. Onetime customers of small bakeries are increasingly choosing hypermarkets as their source of basic bakery products: their share has risen from 15 to 34% (in the period under survey). A winner of the restructuring market is the discount segment, while supermarkets and small convenience stores have also preserved their share in bakery sales. (Source: GfK Hungária, March 2006)

Poland Further investments in Poland for Auchan According to reports in the Polish press, Auchan’s investment plans for the country for the next few years amount to PLZ 3.5bn (US$1bn). The company intends to open 2-3 new hypermarkets per year based in shopping centres. In 2006 it expects its revenue to increase by 6% from PLZ 3.79bn (US$1.1bn) last year. Gross profits for 2005 amounted to PLZ7 million (US$2.1m). Tesco Poland store opening plans Tesco Polska has announced plans to open 50 new stores in Poland and hire 3,000 employees within the next year. 20 of the stores will be up to 1,000 m2 in size, and the rest will be made up of larger (2 - 3,000 m2) stores and a few hypermarkets. The retailer will also open 10 new petrol stations next to its hypermarkets. Last year Tesco Polska reported a 16% rise in net sales to PLZ 5.3bn (US$1.6bn).

Competitor Developments Czech Republic Baker's shop network of Delta Pekarny and Bäcker Bachmeier within Kaufland stores The Czech bakery company Delta Pekarny is building a network of baker's shops together with the German Bäcker Bachmeier under the store name 'Mistr Bäcker' offering bread, rolls and other bakery products located within Kaufland stores. To date, they have opened 36 stores with 360 employees. Delta Pekarny is the leading Czech bakery company with a turnover of CZK 4.3bn in 2004. The group has 10 bakeries in the Czech Republic, 4 in Slovakia and 2 in Poland. The brand portfolio includes Delta Frozen Products, Delibake, Harry's Delta, Heli Food, Diet+ and Eureca Shops. Stock Plzen-Božkov’s sales increased in a shrinking market Stock Plzen-Božkov, the largest spirits producer in the Czech Republic, sold 23.2m litres of alcoholic beverages in 2005, up 11.6% on 2004, when all domestic producers and retailers faced a steep drop in demand caused by a marked rise in consumer tax on spirits. Stock Plzen-Božkov's product portfolio comprises over 30 brands. In addition to its own production, Stock Plzen is a leading distributor of international brands in the Czech and Slovak markets, such as Tullamore Dew Irish whiskey and Old Smuggler whisky, the best-selling Scotch in the Czech retail sector. Overcrowded breakfast cereal market The Czech breakfast cereals market is fairly crowded with three larger suppliers and many smaller ones, specializing in different sub-segments. Due to growing consumption on one hand and widening production capacities on the other, both imports and exports are on the rise. The leading suppliers are: 1. Nestlé - owning two big plants in Olomouc and Holesov. 2. EMCO - domestic producer established in 1991, exporting to 14 countries worldwide. 3. Pragosoja - established in 1991 and which launched its own production of corn-flakes in 1995 under the BONA VITA brand; half of production is exported. Beer selection in Czech Republic more than double that compared to 1990 Czech beer-drinkers can now choose from more than 475 types of beer, double the selection that was available in 1990. Within the total range, around 80 items are high alcohol strength beers. 95% of the supply consists of beer in barrels and lager beer, 3.5% is non-alcoholic beer and only 1.5% is represented by flavoured beer (cherry, caramel, etc.).

Hungary Accelerating concentration in the bakery industry As a result of a series of bankruptcies, the number of enterprises operating in the Hungarian bakery sector declined by 40-50 to a total of 1,300 firms in 2005. Individual bakeries increasingly specialize in added-value speciality products - Viennese pastries with different fillings, pizza slices or chocolate croissants; however, cheap commercial products still represent the bulk of consumption. Hungarian brewing industry dominated by multinationals The industry is dominated by four producers, three of which are owned by multinational companies: Borsodi Sör (Interbrew), Brau Union (having some 30% of the Hungarian beer market with its two breweries in Sopron and Martfu - part of the international Heineken group), Dreher Breweries (owned by SABMiller - has an exceptional performance in the premium category), and finally, Pécs Brewery (with a production capacity of 750,000 hectolitres - belongs to the Austrian Ottakringer AG). As of January 2006, Carlsberg Hungary Ltd - the local representative of Carlsberg Breweries has taken over the distribution of Tuborg beer from Dreher Breweries Ltd. The product received new packaging and a unique, tearable cap. The ‘Tuborg’ premium beer brand - to be sold in 0.33 litre and 0.5 litre bottles as well as in 0.5 litre can - has been present in the Hungarian market since 1982.

Hungary: % Share of Beer by segment, 2005 (Source: ACNielsen)

Premium brands, 11% Private Labels , 17% Lager Beer, 78%


PepsiCo takes lead in savoury snack market PepsiCo has acquired Star Foods, one of Poland’s leading savoury snack producers. The purchase includes Star Foods’ manufacturing and distribution facilities as well as Star Foods’ snack brands such as the popular Star Chips and Mr Snaki. The purchase of Star Foods makes PepsiCo the largest player in the broader savoury snack category, which includes potato chips, pretzels, nuts and extruded snacks. LU Poland market leader in the biscuit industry Biscuits containing cocoa are amongst the most popular varieties in Poland, together with “prohealthy” biscuits, produced by the key market player LU Poland. The largest and strongest performing segment in the category is represented by wafers. Their share amounts to approximately 50% of the biscuits market. Cream-filled biscuits represent about 5% of the market. The growing popularity of the “fitness and wellness” segment is boosted by the dynamic product innovation of local biscuit manufacturers.

Poland: Main producers of packaged biscuits and % share, 2005 (Source: ACNielsen)

3% 2% 3% 2% 5% 7% 6% 8% 6% 4% 7% 10% 9% 8% 10% 8%

Cadbury/Wedel Skawa Kraft Foods Kaloszanka Private Label Goplana Bahlsen Jutrzenka

25% 26%

LU Poland (Danone) 0%









Fast growing beer industry dominated by international players Poland is one of the world’s fastest growing beer markets – at present it is number 10 in the world and number 5 in Europe in terms of beer consumption. The Polish beer industry also remains one of the most modern in Europe. All leading Polish breweries have been purchased by international giants such as Heineken, SAB Miller or Carlsberg. It is expected that in 2006 sales of beer in Poland will continue to grow (2 - 3% growth a year).

Poland: Beer consumption growth in % in comparison to previous year (Source: GUS data) 25









11.9 7.4



10.4 6.2

4.6 0.4



0 -5















-10 -15


Consumer Trends Czech Republic Czechs beer-fans with unusual consumption habits As opposed to many other European countries, where bottled beer dominates, Czechs prefer traditional draught beer: 53% of total production is sold in barrels and 42% bottled, though the share of the latter is soon expected to reach 50%. Foreign tourists are an important target group for Czech beer suppliers. Consumption of beer is at 160 litres per capita, of which consumption of foreign visitors is estimated at 20-30 litres per capita. Beer consumption by Czech citizens is


declining which is expected to be counterbalanced by prospering tourism and increasing consumption of beer by tourists. More than 50% of Czechs don’t care about expired shelf-life Recent research from the Focus on Marketing and Social Research agency on consumer habits revealed that Czechs are still not really conscious food shoppers. More than half of them do not care whether the food they buy has reached its expiry date, and every second Czech consumer does not read any information on the packaging. More than 70% of Czech consumers regard domestic food as safe, while this share was only 54% for imported food products - obviously due to the high share of cheap low-category products within total imports. Fresh bakery products as an attraction to Czech consumers Similar to Hungary, the freshness of bread and other basic bakery products is an important aspect in choice of food store for Czech consumers. This is best exploited by hypermarkets: 7 out of 10 consumers prefer shopping in hypermarkets because they have long opening hours and they always have fresh bread and fresh fruits and vegetables on offer.

Expanding breakfast cereal market More than 69% of Czechs do not regularly eat breakfast according to research from the GfK Institute. Despite this, the cereal market is expanding rapidly due to the increasing healthconsciousness of the young and middle-aged generations, switching over from traditional Czech breakfast - such as egg, bacon, fish salad or rolls with ham - to more healthy cereals. Consumption of cereals increased from 0.5kg per capita in 1997 to 1.2kg per capita in 2005. The biggest market player is Cereal Partners (owned 50% by Nestlé and 50% by General Mills USA). According to the company's expectations, consumption is going to reach the German level of 3.5kg per capita within the next 4-5 years. 40% of the market (in value) is occupied by cereals for children (Ciniminis, Chocapic, Lions, Nesquik). In the category of cereals aimed at adults, the most popular items are Fitness, Wellness and Bio products. Hungary

Hungarians are brand-loyal biscuit consumers Consumption of biscuits and wafers amounted to 3kg per capita in 2005, which is still very low in comparison to the European average of 7.8kg. The total biscuits market by volume amounted to 30,000 tonnes in 2005, with private label products accounting for 27% share in volume and 17% in value terms. Sandwich cookies lost 3% market share both in volume and value in 2005 (Source: ACNielsen). Some long-established, traditional Hungarian biscuit brands enjoy a high reputation and popularity among Hungarian consumers. Besides the most common plain biscuits - three-quarters of which are produced by the no.2 biscuit producer Detki Keksz Ltd - another popular category of biscuits are the chocolate-covered or -filled ones, manufactured by Gyôri Keksz Ltd (Danone group). The Danone group is market leader in the biscuit market in Central and Eastern Europe, the Hungarian subsidiary representing 50% market share in the country.

Biscuit market by segment, 2005 (ACNielsen)

Dry biscuits Value






Sweet cookies Sponge cakes Sandwich' cookies




14% 12% 13% Chocolate-coated, mixed and lowcalorie biscuits.







Restructuring snack consumption favours cheaper snack types The dynamic increase in the buying power of Hungarian consumers in the past few years has had a strange effect on the structure of snack consumption. Increased consumer debt means that a declining proportion of incomes can be spent on non-basic, impulse food products such as crisps. These are increasingly replaced by cheaper snacks, e.g. crackers, salted sticks or oil-seeds. Cereal-based snack consumption has also been boosted by the growing health awareness of consumers, and - in the case of popcorn - the growing popularity of the microwaveable-version. Brown bread becoming more and more popular in Hungary Brown bread is enjoying a renaissance in Hungary: the share of brown bread in total bread consumption has been continuously increasing. In 1989, Hungarians ate white bread 6 times a week, and brown bread only once a week. In 2005, the share of those preferring brown bread has increased to 58%. The typical consumer of brown bread is living in the capital, is under 60, belongs to the higher-than-average income and has a higher educational level.

Poland Polish favour taste over health Poles spend a relatively large portion of their budgets on food products. Although the share is decreasing every year, overall it is still close to 30%. About 2/3 of Polish consumers consume a few regular meals a day. The main meal is dinner (consumed by 84% of people), while about 80% of Poles consume breakfast, which consists of sandwiches and, less often, breakfast cereals.

% Share of spending on F&D vs. total household expenditure, 2005 (Source: Ipsos and GfK, 2005) 50% 45%

43% 39%





30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995




Every 3rd Pole declares that he/she eats what he/she likes even if unhealthy. Eating low-calorie foods or organic foods purchased from specialist retailers is still quite rare. Only every 6th consumer in Poland (15%) tries to follow a healthy, well-balanced diet and consciously selects products, the majority of these “health oriented” consumers being women and elderly people. The fact that the share of consumers purchasing functional foods has been stable over the past few years seems to suggest that Poles favour taste over health concerns. When purchasing food products the key selection criteria is price and the belief that it is healthy or natural (no preservatives). It is rare for Polish consumers to consciously select low calorie, light or organic products. If the product label is read (60% of Poles do this) consumers look for information concerning fat content, and preservatives. Information on calories and vitamins is definitely less important to them. 80% of Poles purchase branded food products and 50% of them are ready to pay more for branded vs. non branded product. The highest brand awareness is observed in such product categories as tea and coffee. Longer working hours - especially in big cities - and a growing number of single person households, are reflected in growing importance and interest in ready meals. This Western European trend has been already noted in Poland, where the purchases of convenience foods are also becoming more and more popular. Decreasing bread consumption In Poland the consumption of bread has been decreasing over the last few years by 2-3%. At the moment, the average Pole consumes 75kg of bread a year (in comparison to 90 kg a few years ago), which equates to 150 slices of bread a month. In Poland bread remains the basic product consumed in the morning for breakfast and in the evening, when the majority of consumers eat cold supper (sandwiches, salads etc. accompanied by bread, rolls etc.) Prices of bread in Poland are much lower than prices in other EU countries. The price of bread in Poland is approximately two times lower than in Germany and approximately 3-4 times lower in comparison to the UK.

Prices of bread and other cereals products in Europe (Source: Eurostat, 2004 data – Index 100) Austria

123 122

Italy 114



Germany Spain





103 100

25 EU countries




Slovenia 61

Estonia 54

Latvia Lithuania




Czech Republic



50 49

Slovakia 0






The alternative for fresh bread is a growing segment of bread with longer shelf life and crisp bread. Currently crisp bread is consumed by 22% of Poles, mainly women and people living in cities, aged 15-44 with secondary or higher education and above average income. Consumers selecting breads with longer shelf life or crisp bread appreciate the fact that these products are packed and sliced, have long shelf lives, and thus, are convenient. The crisp bread market is split among 8 players, the leading brand being Wasa - 60% of those who claim to eat crisp bread (i.e. 26% of Poles) declare that they consume the Wasa brand most often. Other key brands are: San, Sonko, Chaber and Schulstad.

Sector focus: Breakfast Cereals in Poland The potential for growth in breakfast cereals is high in Poland: on average, a Pole consumes 1kg of breakfast cereals a year, which is twice as much as it was 10 years ago. However, consumption levels in Poland are half of Germany’s and 6 times lower than in Britain. In 2005, the breakfast cereals market increased by 14% vs. 2004. The estimated market volume amounted to 33,000 tonnes, corresponding to £77.6m in value terms. The increase has been recorded in all the three segments of breakfast cereals: cereals for children, which generate almost 50% of the market value, grew in both volume (+17%) and value (+13%) terms. The value of the other two segments - cereals for families and adults went up by 7% and 8% respectively. The most considerable growth has been observed in the category of muesli (representing 11% of the total breakfast cereals market), which increased by 25% in volume and 19% in value. This may be a result of the fact that muesli is perceived to be healthier and less processed than other types of breakfast cereals. In 2005, around 70% of mueslis were sold in hypermarkets and supermarkets. As far as the entire market of breakfast cereals is concerned, approximately 50% of sales are generated by hypermarkets and supermarkets, although sales in small grocery stores have been increasing.

Breakfast cereals by category and sales concentration, 2005 (Source: AC Neilsen)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%







Sales Volume For children


Sales Value Other

100% 90% 80% 70% 60%











50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004

Hypermarkets Large grocery stores Small grocery stores


Supermarkets Medium grocery stores

Breakfast cereals are consumed by 45% of adults in Poland, of which the majority is represented by women, people living in large cities and inhabitants of mid-size towns, and those having at least secondary education. 65% of breakfast cereals purchasers consume these products at least twice a week.

Consumption frequency, 2005 (Source: ACNielsen)

Every day, 12%

Once or less a week, 38%

5-6 times a week, 7%

3-4 times a week, 18%

Twice a week, 25%

Competitors’ share of the Breakfast Cereals market, 2005 (Source: ACNielsen) Dr. Oetker Sante Lubella Private Label Nestlē 0%


40% Value

60% Volume



Most often consumed Breakfast Cereal brands, April 2004-March 2005 (Source: ACNielsen)


Corn Flake s-Nes tle Nes quik-Nes tle


Che erios-Nes tle


Gold Flake s-Nes tle


Chocapic-Nes tle


M us li-Nes tle


Oats ce re als-Lube lla


Kangus-Nes tle


Corn Flake s-Sante


Cini M inis-Nes tle


Frutina-Nes tle




M lek ołaki - Lube lla

3,2% 0%

New Products SEMIX: Graham wheat cereals (SLIM LINE brand) (CZECH REPUBLIC) New design, crispy products with a very fine structure. 100g product contains 11.7% natural fibre = 1/3 of the daily recommended quantity.

OPAVIA-LU: BE-BE Dobre Rano (‘Good morning’) (CZECH REPUBLIC) Dry biscuits with high fibre content, produced by OPAVIA-LU, member of the Danone group. The product has reached more than 45% market share in the dry biscuit market. Usually consumed as part of a light breakfast.




Innovations by NOVA PAKA brewery (CZECH REPUBLIC) NOVA PAKA, a medium-sized domestic beer manufacturer, has launched two innovative products: beer in PET bottles and Hemp Valley Beer, containing extracts of cannabis growing in Switzerland. Alcohol content amounts to 4.5%. The company is also producing Kosher beer, exported to Israel and the USA. Cerbona's new products: ‘Fitt’ fruit breakfast cereals, Wheat bars & spaghetti (HUNGARY)

Organic muesli bars by Biopont (HUNGARY) At the end of 2005, Biopont Ltd - Hungary's largest producer of organic foodstuff introduced organic muesli bars in various flavours under the 'Bio' brand.

Borsodi Brewery: Borsodi Bivaly with higher alcohol content (HUNGARY) Borsodi Bivaly ('Buffalo') is advertised with the slogan: 'Its taste is its strength', in order to emphasize the higher-than-usual alcohol content (6.5%).

Nestlé, market leader in Poland (POLAND) In 2005, as in 2004, the market leader on the breakfast cereals market was the Nestle company, with Nestle corn-flakes, Nestle Nesquik and Nestle Cheerios being the highest selling products in the retail sector. Recently, the company has modified its marketing strategy by printing on product packaging that Nestle breakfast cereals are made from different types of grains.

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