EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Global Forecasts for Light-Duty Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: 2011-2017 NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at [email protected]. Published 3Q 2011

Dave Hurst Senior Analyst John Gartner Senior Analyst

Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1

Key Market Issues To develop forecasts for electric vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), Pike Research examines four key factors:  Vehicle availability – We track the launch of new vehicles globally in our vehicle roadmap. This roadmap gives information on when specific new electric vehicles are anticipated to come to market. Overall, the Asia Pacific region is expected to experience the most rapid growth in the number of BEV and PHEV models, followed by Europe and North America. However, demand for HEVs in North America will lead to the availability of 40 models by the end of 2012, versus 14 HEV models in Asia Pacific.  Fuel prices – Prices for diesel and gasoline have a significant impact on demand for specific types of vehicles. Thus, fuel cost by region is an important consideration when forecasting demand for electric vehicles. Western Europe is anticipated to have the highest fuel prices in 2017 ($12.02/gallon for gasoline and $10.04/gallon for diesel). By the same timeframe, fuel costs in North America will be lower than those in Asia Pacific (gasoline costs of $6.10/gallon in North America vs. $7.98/gallon in Asia Pacific).  Government market influence – Governments will play two distinct roles: incentivizing electric vehicle adoption and regulating the fuel economy and emissions of ICE vehicles. China in the Asia Pacific region is taking the lead in terms of incentivizing vehicle adoption, with more than RMB 120,000 ($18,620 at the time of writing) in incentives in selected regions.  Consumer attitudes and recharging infrastructure – Inherent in any forecast of demand is consumer attitude toward the vehicles. Specific geographic areas have different features and typical drive lengths (e.g., 5-mile vs. 25-mile commutes) that will make specific types of electric drives more attractive. The growth of publically available electric vehicle charging equipment (EVCE) will also help build confidence that BEVs and PHEVs will fit within consumers’ lifestyles.

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts 1.2

Market Forecasts Overall, the market for electrified vehicles will grow at a CAGR of 19.5% between 2011 and 2017 (this compares to a CAGR of 3.7% for the vehicle market overall during the same period). The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market which is the combination of both BEVs and PHEVs will see substantial growth because it is currently still in its infancy (48.4% CAGR).

Chart 1.1

Annual Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 3,500,000

3,000,000

BEV

PHEV

HEV

(Vehicles)

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

(Source: Pike Research)

The market for PEVs is expected to grow to 1,342,067 vehicles annually by 2017 – about 1.4% of the global light-duty vehicle market. The Asia Pacific region will be the leading market due to the strength of the Japanese market and growth in China in the coming years. The PEV market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by various government bodies because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected even a year ago. In the United States, President Obama’s goal for 1 million PEVs on the roads by 2015 appears to be well beyond what the actual vehicle market is likely to be. Germany has set a goal of 1,000,000 PEVs by 2020 – almost twice the 512,701 PEVs forecast to be on the roads in that country by 2017.

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Section 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1  Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1  1.1  Key Market Issues ......................................................................................................................... 1  1.2  Market Forecasts .......................................................................................................................... 2  Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4  Background Data ........................................................................................................................................ 4  2.1  Vehicle Segments ......................................................................................................................... 4  2.2  Key Market Issues ......................................................................................................................... 4  2.2.1  Vehicle Availability ................................................................................................................... 4  2.2.2  Fuel Prices............................................................................................................................... 9  2.2.3  Government Market Influence ............................................................................................... 10  2.2.3.1  Government Incentives ................................................................................................. 10  2.2.3.2  Government Fuel Economy/Emissions Regulations .................................................... 14  2.2.4  Consumer Attitudes and Recharging Infrastructure .............................................................. 15  Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 17  Market Forecasts....................................................................................................................................... 17  3.1  Light-Duty Electric Vehicles Forecast ......................................................................................... 17  3.2  Hybrid Electric Light-Duty Vehicle Forecast, World Markets ...................................................... 17  3.3  Plug-in Electric Light-Duty Vehicle Forecast, World Markets ..................................................... 18  3.3.1  Plug-in Electric Vehicle Forecast, North America ................................................................. 19  3.3.2  Plug-in Electric Vehicle Forecast, Europe ............................................................................. 21  3.3.3  Plug-in Electric Vehicle Forecast, Asia Pacific ...................................................................... 22  3.3.3.1  China’s New Energy Vehicle Targets ........................................................................... 24  3.4  Electric Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales Forecast, World Markets............................................... 25  3.5  Selected OEM Plug-in Electric Light-Duty Vehicle Market Share, United States ....................... 25  Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 27  Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 27  Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 29  Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 29  Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 30  Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 30  Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 31  Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 31  Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 31  Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 31 

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Section 6 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1  Chart 1.2  Chart 2.1  Chart 2.2  Chart 3.1  Chart 3.2  Chart 3.3  Chart 3.4  Chart 3.5  Chart 3.6  Chart 3.7  Chart 3.8  Chart 3.9  Chart 3.10 

Annual Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 ................................... 2  Cumulative Light-Duty PEV Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 .............................................. 3  Average Gasoline and Diesel Prices, World Markets: 2017 ................................................... 9  Average Gasoline Prices, World Markets: 2011 and 2017 ................................................... 10  Annual Light-Duty HEV Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 ................................................... 17  Annual Light-Duty PEV Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 ................................................... 18  PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 ................. 19  Cumulative Light-Duty PEV Sales, North America: 2011-2017 ............................................ 20  Cumulative Light-Duty PEV Sales, Europe: 2011-2017 ........................................................ 21  Cumulative Light-Duty PEV Sales, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017................................................. 22  Cumulative Light-Duty PHEV and BEV Sales, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017 ............................... 23  Annual Light-Duty New Energy Vehicle (HEV/PEV) Sales, China: 2011-2017 .................... 24  Annual Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017 ........................ 25  Selected OEM PEV Sales, United States: 2011-2017 .......................................................... 26 

Figure 2.1 

Standardized Comparison of International Fuel Economy and GHG Standards .................. 14 

Table 2.1 

Vehicle Roadmap for Light-Duty HEV/PHEV/BEV Passenger Vehicles, Asia Pacific: 2010-2013 ............................................................................................................................... 5  Vehicle Roadmap for Light-Duty HEV/PHEV/BEV Passenger Vehicles, Europe: 2010-2013 ................................................................................................................................. ................................................................................................................................................. 6  Vehicle Roadmap for Light-Duty HEV/PHEV/BEV Passenger Vehicles, North America: 2010-2013 ...................................................................................................... 7  Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives by Country: 2011 ...................................... 11  Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulations, United States: 2010-2016 ......................... 15 

Table 2.2  Table 2.3  Table 2.4  Table 2.5 

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Section 7 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the electric vehicle market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, and battery manufacturers, with forecasts for the market performance of HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. This study’s major objective is to provide the anticipated growth of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the overall consumer automobile market and fleet markets. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers within the competitive landscape. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through 2017.

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.

NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2011 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Published 3Q 2011 © 2011 Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1 303.997.7609 http://www.pikeresearch.com

This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC (“Pike”). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication.

© 2011 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.

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