Evidence E id ffor C Correlations l ti Between Nuclear Decayy Rates and Solar Activity Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach John Buncher Tom Gruenwald Jordan Heim Dan Javorsek Dennis Krause Anthony Lasenby Andrew Longman
Ed Merritt Josh Mattes Tasneem Mohsinally Dan Mundy John Newport Ben Revis Peter Sturrock
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Outline • • • • • •
Introduction and Motivation Brookhaven National Laboratory 32Si data PTB 226Ra data BNL/PTB correlations l ti Purdue Work/2006 December solar flare data Environmental influences on detectors – Detailed detector analyses
• • • •
Phase and Periodicity Implications Possible mechanisms Self-influenced decays Conclusions and future work Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
References •
•
• • • •
Jenkins, J.H. and E. Fischbach, Perturbation of nuclear decay rates during the solar fl flare off 2006 D December b 13 13. Astroparticle A t ti l Physics, Ph i 2009 2009. 31(6) 31(6): p. 407 407-411. 411 [doi:10.1016/j.astropartphys.2009.04.005] Fischbach, E., et al., Time-Dependent Nuclear Decay Parameters: New Evidence for New Forces? Space Science Reviews, 2009. 145(3): p. 285-335. [doi: 10.1007/s11214-009-9518-5] Jenkins, J.H., et al., Evidence of Correlations Between Nuclear Decay Rates and Earth-Sun Distance. Astroparticle Physics, 2009. 32(1): p. 42-46. [ [doi:10.1016/j.astropartphys.2009.05.004] j p p y ] “Half-life (more or less)”, ScienceNews, November 22, 2008, Vol. 174, #11, p20 “The Mystery of Varying Nuclear Decay”, PhysicsWorld, Oct. 2, 2008, http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/36108 “You say diplon, I say deuton”, Nature Physics, October, 2008, Vol. 4, No. 10, p747.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Paper p
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Paper p
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Paper
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
A New Test of Randomness
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Normalized Undecayed BNL
32
Si Data
1 003 1.003 1.002
BNL U(t)
1.001 1.000 0.999 0.998 Representative 1σ Error for BNL Data
07/86
12/85
06/85
11/84
04/84
10/83
03/83
09/82
02/82
08/81
0.997
Date Normalized Un-decayed
BNL Uncertainty
Data from: Alburger, Alburger et al al., Earth and Planet Planet. Sci Sci. Lett Lett., 78, 78 (1986) 168-176 168 176 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance 1.003
1.04 1.03
1.002
1.000
2
1.00
-2
1.01
0.99
0 999 0.999
0.98 0.998
0.97 0.96 07/86
12/85
06/85
11/84
10/83
03/83
09/82
02/82
04/84
Representative 1σ Error for BNL Data
0.997 08/81
BNL U(t)
1 001 1.001
1/R (a.u. )
1.02
Date Normalized Un-decayed
BNL Uncertainty
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.52, N=239, Prob=4.17x10-18 Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
7 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance 1.0020
1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01
1.0000
1.00 0 99 0.99 0.98
0.9990
0.97
07/86
12/85
06/85
11/84
04/84
10/83
03/83
09/82
02/82
0.96 08/81
0.9980
Date Un-decayed 7pt avg
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.66, N=233, Prob=1.0x10-31 Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1//R^2 (a.u.^2)
No ormalized BNL L
1.0010
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Raw Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.005 1.004
1 002 1.002 1.001 1 0.999 0.998 0.997
Date
Normalized Undecayed
D t ffrom Siegert, Data Si t ett al., l Appl. A l R Radiat. di t IIsot. t 49, 49 1397 (1998) Fi Fig. 1 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
3//18/00
3//19/99
3//19/98
3//19/97
3//19/96
3//20/95
3//20/94
3//20/93
3//20/92
3//21/91
3//21/90
3//21/89
3//21/88
3//22/87
3//22/86
3//22/85
0.995
3//22/84
0.996 3//23/83
Normalize ed 226 Ra Data
1.003
Raw Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.005
1.08
1.004
1.06 1.04
1.002
1.02
1.001 1
1.00
0 999 0.999
0.98
0.998
0.96
0.997
0 94 0.94
3/18/00
3/19/99
3/19/98
3/19/97
3/19/96
3/20/95
3/20/94
3/20/93
3/20/92
3/21/91
3/21/90
3/21/89
3/21/88
3/22/87
3/22/86
3/22/85
3/22/84
3/23/83
0.996 0.995
1/R2 (a.u.-2) 1
Normalized 226 Ra D Data
1.003
0.92
Date
Normalized Undecayed
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.62, N=1974, Prob=5.13x10-210 D t from Data f Siegert, Si t ett al., l Appl. A l Radiat. R di t IIsot. t 49, 49 1397 (1998) Fi Fig. 1
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
7 Pt Avg Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.003
1.08 1.06 1.04
1.001
1.02
1
1.00 0.98
0.999
1//R2 (a.u.-2)
Normalized 226 Ra Da ata
1.002
0.96 0 998 0.998
3/18/00 3
3/19/99 3
3/19/98 3
3/19/97 3
3/19/96 3
3/20/95 3
3/20/94 3
3/20/93 3
3/20/92 3
3/21/91 3
3/21/90 3
3/21/89 3
3/21/88 3
3/22/87 3
3/22/86 3
3/22/85 3
3/22/84 3
3/23/83 3
0.997
0.94 0.92
Date 7 pt avg normalized undecayed
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.65, N=1968, Prob=3.12x10-246 D t from Data f Siegert, Si t ett al., l Appl. A l Radiat. R di t IIsot. t 49 49, 1397 (1998) Fi Fig. 1
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
BNL/PTB Correlation
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.04 1.03 1.001
1.02 1.01
1
1 0.99
0.999
0.98 0.97
0.998 0 998 1983.50
1984.00
1984.50
1985.00
1985.50
1986.00
0.96 0 96 1986.50
Date Raw BNL
Raw PTB
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.66, N=39, Prob=5.8x10-6 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/R2 (a.u.-2)
BNL L and PTB B U(t)
1.002
BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.06 1.04
1.001
1.02
1
1 0.98
0.999
0.96
0.998 0 998 1983.50
1984.00
1984.50
1985.00
1985.50
1986.00
0.94 0 94 1986.50
Date 5 Pt Avg BNL
5 Pt Avg PTB
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.87,, N=35,, Prob=3.78x10-12 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/R2 (a.u.-2)
BNL a and PTB U U(t)
1.002
BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance 1.06 1.04
1.001
1.02
1
1 0.98
0.999 0.998 0 998 1983.50
0.96 1984.00
1984.50
1985.00
1985.50
1986.00
0.94 0 94 1986.50
Date 7 Pt Avg BNL
7 Pt Avg PTB
USNO 1/R^2
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.89, N=33, Prob=1.85x10-12 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1//R2 (a.u.-2)
BNL a and PTB U U(t)
1.002
H. Schrader, Appl. Rad. & Isot., 60 (2004) 317-323 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Ellis’s Ellis s 238Pu/56Mn
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Calibration by y Activation 238Pu/Be
sources calibrated by activation of 55Mn 238
Pu 7 Be(α ,n) Pu, n)
55
Mn + n → 56 Mn*
56
Mn* → 56 Fe* + β − + υ → 56 Fe + γ
Gammas measured by NaI(Tl) detectors Data from K. Ellis,, Phys. y Med. Biol.,, 35,, 1079-1088 ((1990))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Data from K. Ellis, Phys. Med. Biol., 35, 1079-1088 (1990) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PuBe/56Mn Data from Ellis 1978-1987
Norm malized CR
1.01
1
0.99 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Year
Normalized
Poly. (Normalized)
Data from K. K Ellis, Ellis Phys Phys. Med Med. Biol Biol., 35, 35 1079-1088 1079 1088 (1990) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
0.9
1
Ellis 238Pu/56Mn Data 1978-1987 1 01 1.01
1 04 1.04 1.03
Norm malized CR
1.02 1.01 1.00
1.00 0.99 0.98 0 97 0.97
0.99 1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Date (Year) 5 Pt Avg
USNO 1/R^2
Data from K. K Ellis, Ellis Phys Phys. Med Med. Biol Biol., 35, 35 1079-1088 1079 1088 (1990) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
0.96 1988
Motivation for Purdue Experiments • Correlation between BNL and PTB data • Correlation of these data with 1/R2 EarthSun distance
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Comparison of Decays Oct-Dec
ln[CR(n n)]/ln[CR(1)]
1.0002 1
Set 1 Set 2
0.9998
Set 3 Set 4
0.9996
Set 5 Set 6
0.9994
Set 7 Set 8
0.9992
Set 9 Linear (Set 4)
0.999
Linear (Set 1) Linear (Set 7)
0.9988
Linear (Set 3) Linear (Set 6)
0.9986
Linear (Set 8) Linear (Set 2) 0
10
20
30
40
50
Linear (Set 9)
Count #
Start
Stop
Total events
slope (a)=
σa=
T1/2
Significance
PHARM 0-39
10/19/06 17:10
10/26/06 16:18
1,125,533,997
-0.002057562
1.45E-05
336.878
-11.28
PHARM 40-79
10/26/06 20:35
11/02/06 18:33
1,107,115,186
-0.002137321
1.48E-05
324.307
-5.65
PHARM 80-119
11/02/06 22:50
11/10/06 16:04
1,087,799,523
-0.002684431
1.27E-05
258.210
36.59
PHARM 120-159
11/10/06 20:20
11/17/06 18:55
1,070,959,137
-0.002001981
1.49E-05
346.230
-14.69
PHARM 160-199
11/17/06 23:11
11/24/06 21:36
1,055,144,190
-0.002228968
1.5E-05
310.972
0.55
PHYS 167 0-39
12/2/06 16:40
12/09/06 14:47
1,013,691,320
-0.002403516
1.54E-05
288.389
11.89
PHYS 167 40-79
12/09/06 19:02
12/16/06 17:00
995,311,701
-0.002616834
1.55E-05
264.880
25.55
PHYS 167 80-119
12/16/06 21:15
12/23/06 19:05
978,797,865
-0.00222234
1.56E-05
311.890
0.10
PHYS 167 120-159
12/23/06 23:20
12/30/06 20:59
964,155,029
-0.002181871
1.58E-05
317.685
-2.46
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts
17.17 17.16
T1/2=313.5d
17.14
y = -0.0022106x + 103.3939495
17.13
R = 0.9982370
2
17.12
T1/2=1953d
17.11 17.1
y = -0.000354849x + 30.958741922
17 09 17.09
2
R = 0.213745887 0 213745887
17.08
Elapsed Days Measured
Flat Line
Published
Linear (Measured)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Linear (Flat Line)
11/2 28
11/2 23
11/1 18
11/1 13
11//8
11//3
10/2 29
10/2 24
17.07 10/1 19
ln(4 h hr count)
17.15
Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data 17.06
17.05 17.045 17.04
Date (2006) Measured
Published Decay
Fit to Actual Decayed
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12/12
12/10
12/8
12/6
12/4
17.035 12/2
ln(4 4 hr CR)
17 055 17.055
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Sunspot 930 Source of Dec 06 Flares Fl
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data 17 06 17.06 17.055
(7.51±1.07) x 105 Events missing
17.045 17.04 17.035 17.03 17.025
Date (2006)
Measured
Published Decay
Fit to Actual Decayed
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12 2/18
12 2/16
12 2/14
12 2/12
12 2/10
12/8 1
12/6 1
12/4 1
17.02 12/2 1
ln(4 hr count)
17.05
Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data 17.06
X3/4B Flare 13 Dec 06 02:37 UT (21:37 EST)
17 04 17.04
17 03 17.03
Date (2006, EST) M Measured d
P bli h d D Published Decay
Fit to t Actual A t l Decayed D d
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12/16
12/15
12/14
12/13
12/12
12/11
12/10
12/9
12/8
12/7
12/6
12/5
12/4
12/3
17 02 17.02 12/2
ln(4 hrr count)
17.05
Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data 17.06
X3/4B Flare 13 Dec 06 02:37 UT (21:37 EST)
17.04 17 03 17.03 17.02 17.01
Date (2006, EST)
Measured
Published Decay
Fit to Actual Decayed
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Flare
12/24 4
12/23 3
2 12/22
12/21
12/20 0
12/19 9
12/18 8
12/17 7
12/16 6
12/15 5
12/14 4
12/13 3
2 12/12
12/11
12/10 0
12/9 9
12/8 8
12/7 7
12/6 6
12/5 5
12/4 4
12/3 3
2 12/2
17 12/1
ln(4 hrr count)
17.05
Physics y 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with Linear GEOS11 x-ray Data 9.0E-04 8 0E 04 8.0E-04
1.002
7.0E-04 6.0E-04 5 0E 04 5.0E-04
1.000
4.0E-04
0.999
3.0E-04 2 0E 04 2.0E-04
0.998
1.0E-04
Date (2006)
Norm. Undecayed Gross
X-Ray GEOS11Long
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/8
1/3
12/2 29
12/2 24
12/1 19
12/1 14
12 2/9
0.0E+00 12 2/4
0.997
W/m^2
1.001
11/2 29
No orm. Undecay yed CR 4h
1.003
1.003
1.E+00
1.002
1.E-01
1.001
1.E-02
1.E-04
0 999 0.999
1.E-05
0.998
1.E-06
Date (2006)
Norm. Undecayed Gross
X-Ray X Ray GEOS11Long
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1//8
1//3
12/29
1.E-09 12/24
0.995 12/19
1.E-08 12/14
0.996 12//9
1 E-07 1.E-07
12//4
0.997
W/m m^2
1.E-03
1.000
11/29
Norm. Undec cayed CR 4h h
Physics 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with GEOS11 x-ray Data
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
5 Dec 2006: X-9 class flare
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
13 Dec 2006: X3/4B Flare
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized 1.002
1.0E-05
1.001
8.0E-06
6.0E-06 0.999
5.0E-06 4.0E-06
0.998
3.0E-06 2 0E 06 2.0E-06
0.997
1.0E-06
Date (2006)
Measured
X-ray X ray SHORT
X-Ray X Ray LONG
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
11/29 9
11/24 4
11/19 9
11/14 4
11/9 9
11/4 4
10/30 0
10/25 5
0.0E+00 10/20 0
0.996
W/m^2 W
7.0E-06
1.000
10/15 5
ln n(4 hr count)/line fit va alue(t
9.0E-06
Logarithmic Decay of 54Mn for December 2008 16.3 16.29 16.28
ln(CR)
16.27 16.26 16.25 16.24 6. 4 16.23 16 22 16.22 11/28
12/2
12/6
12/10
12/14
12/18
12/22
Date (2008) ln(gross)
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12/26
12/30
1/3
Logarithmic Decay of 54Mn for December 2008 16.28
16.275
ln(CR)
16.27
16.265
16 26 16.26
16.255
16.25
16.245 12/9 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21 12/22 12/23
Date (2008) ln(gross)
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
SOLAR ACTIVITY: Hours ago, something on the far side of the sun exploded and hurled a massive cloud of debris (a CME) over the eastern limb. Using a coronagraph to block the sun's glare, l th the S Solar l and d Heliospheric H li h i Observatory (SOHO) photographed the cloud expanding into space:
NASA's Stereo-B spacecraft is stationed over the sun's eastern limb,, but it was not taking g pictures p at the probable time of the eruption, so details of the blast are unknown. The CME could herald an active region (e.g., a sunspot or perhaps an unstable magnetic filament) turning to face Earth in the days ahead ahead.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Logarithmic Decay of 54Mn for December 2008 16.28
16.275
Non Earth-directed large CME recorded by SOHO at 0942 16 Dec 08 UT
ln(CR)
16.27
16.265
y = ‐0.0008937x + 51.8287553 R² = 0.5886092
T1/2=776d 6d
16.26 y = ‐0.0022514x + 105.8637406 R² = 0.9977750
16.255
T1/2=307d
16 25 16.25
16.245 12/9 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21 12/22 12/23
Date (2008) ln(gross)
12/14‐12/16
Linear (12/14‐12/16)
Linear (12/14‐12/16)
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Data from other institutions
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Super-K Data Correlation = 0.38, 181 points, prob=3x10-7
1.04 0
1.15
1.03
1.1
1.02
1.05
1.01
1
1
0.95
0.99
0.9
0.98
0.85
0.97
0.8
0.96
10/28/95
3/11/97
7/24/98
12/6/99
4/19/01
9/1/02
Date
7 Pt Avgd Normalized Phi-nu
1/R^2
D t ffrom Yoo, Data Y ett al., l Phys Ph Rev R D 68, 68 092002 (2003) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/R R2, a.u.-2
Normalized Nu-flux
1.2
Data Summary Experiment
Detector
Type
Deca y Type
Measured Radiation Type
PTB (226Ra)
Ion Chamber
Gas
α,β
γ
Annual
PTB (152Eu)
GeLi
Solid State
ε
γ
Annual
BNL (32Si/36Cl)
Prop. Counter
Gas
β-
β-
Annual
Purdue (54Mn))
NaI(Tl) ( )
Scint.
ε
γ
Flare
CNRC (56Mn)
NaI(Tl)
Scint.
β-,(α?)
γ
Annual
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Phases
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
BNL Si/Cl Ratio vs. 1/R2 + Heliolatitude 1.003
1.08
1.06 1.002 1.04
1.02
1.000
1.00
0.98 0.999 0.96 0.998 0.94
0 997 0.997 1/2/82
0 92 0.92 7/3/82
1/2/83
7/3/83
1/2/84
7/2/84
1/1/85
7/2/85
Date Normalized Un‐decayed
Un‐decayed 5 pt avg
Fxn F (Heliolatitude and 1/R2)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/1/86
7/2/86
1/R2 + Heliolatitude
Si/Cl R Ratio (Normalized)
1 001 1.001
1.003
1.06
1.002
1.04
1.001
1.02
1
1.00
0.999
0.98
0.998
0.96
0.997 2/1/82 / /
0.94 2/2/84 / /
2/1/86 / /
2/2/88 / /
2/1/90 / /
2/2/92 / /
2/1/94 / /
2/2/96 / /
Date Normalized Ra‐226
7 pt avg normalized undecayed
Fxn F
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
2/1/98 / /
2/2/00 / /
Heliiolatitude and 1/R2
Norm alized 226Ra Current
PTB 226Ra Data with Heliolatitude and 1/R2
H. Siegert, et al., Appl. Rad. & Isot., 49 (1998) 1397-1401 Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Spectral Analysis
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
BNL Power Spectrum
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
CNRC Power Spectrum
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PTB Power Spectrum
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Frequency Content Comparisons Isotope p
Low Frequency [1/ ear] [1/year]
Annual Frequency [1/ ear] [1/year]
Si/Cl
0.33
0.98
CNRC
Mn
0.25
0.98
PTB
Ra
0.22
1.00
Experiment p BNL
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Phase Discussions Exp
Isotope
1/T
1/P
1/H
1/R
-26.2°
-131.0°
-50.6°
-3.3°
BNL ((Si))
36.4°
BNL (Cl)
106.3°
BNL (Si/Cl)
-41.4°
CNRC (Mn)
16 2° 16.2
-25.0 25 0°
-131.7 131 7°
-47.1 47 1°
PTB (Ra)
-32.0°
-19.8°
-164.4°
-163.7° -1.7°
-1.6 1 6°
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Helio-Lat
1/R + Helio Lat
-67.7°
-39.4°
CUMSUM
Cl Temp
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Cl ACRIM
ACRIM/BNL
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Possible Mechanisms
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Possible Mechanisms and New L Long R Range F Forces • The Sun can influence nuclear decays either through new long-range l fi ld or th fields through h particles ti l such h as neutrinos, axions, or other non-standard objects • If the effect arises from a new long-range field, then any such h fifield ld mustt h have a range off ~1 1 a.u. S Such h spini independent fields are highly constrained. • If the sun influences nuclear decays through emission of particles then these can influence nuclear decays particles, through relatively short-range fields which tend to be less highly constrained. • Spin-dependent Spin dependent long long-range range forces are relatively poorly constrained, and may provide an appropriate mechanism to explain time-varying decay rates. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Possible Mechanisms-I Mechanisms I • Spatial Variation of the Fine Structure Constant α – This is an example of a mechanism whose existence depends on a field whose range is ~1 a.u. – Such a field is strongly constrained by both 5th force type yp experiments, p and atomic p physics y experiments. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Spatial Variation of the Fine Structure C Constant t tα For alpha decay (e.g., 226Ra → 222Rn + 4He) δα δΓ ⎛ 1 v ⎞ −3 ⎛ δΓ ⎞ 6.3 10 ≈ → × ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ α Γ ⎝ 4π Zα c ⎠ ⎝ Γ ⎠
From our 226Ra data, δΓ Γ
≈ 3 ×10
−3
⇒
δα ≈ 2 ×10−5 α
Thi may be This b iincompatible tibl with ith existing i ti WEP and d 5th fforce constraints. t i t References: D. J. Shaw, gr-qc/0702090; J.D. Barrow and D. J. Shaw, arXiv:0806:4317; Xi 0806 4317 JJ.-P. P U Uzan, R Rev. M Mod. d Ph Phys. 75, 75 403 (2003) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Possible Mechanisms-II Mechanisms II • Spin-dependent Spin dependent long range force coupling to neutrinos – This is an example of where a spin spin-dependent dependent force of relatively short range could provide an explanation p of the decay y data.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Spin-dependent long range force coupling li to neutrinos i
Δ
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Variation in Solar Neutrino Flux dΓ dΓ ∝ E E 2 − me2 ( E0 − E ) 2 dE
1. For β-decay, where Γ is extremely sensitive to small shifts in E0 2. Assume E0 → E0+Δ, where Δ arises from solar neutrinos, then
( E0 − E ) 2 → ( E0 − E ) 2 + 2Δ( E0 − E ) + Δ 2
A [3(σ 1 ⋅ rˆ)(σ 2 ⋅ rˆ) − σ 1 ⋅ σ 2 3 3. Next, assume r p e, e n, n νe where 1 = ν e , 2 = p, Δ=
4. For an un-polarized sample,
(E0 − E) → (E0 − E) + Δ 2
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
2
2
Variation in Solar Neutrino Flux (cont’d) 5. Compare this to the change induced by mν2 ≠ 0
(E0 − E)2 → (E0 − E) (E0 − E)2 − mv2
For ( E0 − E )
2
m ,Δ ⇒ 2 v
2
1 2 Δ ≈ − mv 2 2
mv2 = − 100 eV 2 to − 10 eV 2 . ⇒
Δ 2 = 50 eV 2 to 5 eV 2
This may be compatible with current limits on neutrino magnetic dipole moments moments. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Recent Work on Self-induced Decays Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach John Buncher Geoff Greene Tom Gruenwald Jordan Heim Kevin Herminghuysen Dan Javorsek Dennis Krause Robert Lee
Richard Lindstrom Andrew Longman Josh Mattes Brent Morris Tasneem Mohsinally Dan Mundy John Newport Andrew Yue
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Self-induced Self induced Decay (SID) Effect • All samples are exposed to their own emitted neutrinos, can we see an effect? • Need a neutrino density of at least that of the solar neutrinos to see anything above the background background. • For a sphere of 197Au where the fraction of 198Au A is i 2 x 10-44, this thi iis achieved hi d with ith a sphere of radius 1 x 10-2 cm. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Equation for N(t) • Start from: • Assume a small perturbation
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Solution for N(t)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
dN(x)/dx vs. vs x X≈0.693
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Ln[dN/dx] vs x
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Solution
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Sphere:Foil
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
NIST results
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Sphere vv. Foil
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Environmental Sensitivities
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
BNL Detector • Proportional Counter • Precision Sample Changer • 32Si(32P) source (T1/2 =172y) at 1 mm – 32Si Eβmax = 224.31(19) keV – 32P Eβmax = 1710 1710.48(22) 48(22) keV • 36Cl source (T1/2 =300,000y) at 4 mm – 36Cl Eβmax = 708 708.6(3) 6(3) keV • Background 6.5(3) cpm (compared to 21,500 cpm(36Cl) and 14,800 14 800 cpm(32Si) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Range e (cm)
Linear range of β in air 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
β Energy (MeV) Air, T=20°C, RH=35%
Air, T=23.3°C, RH=76%
L K L. Katz, t A A.S. S Penfold, P f ld Reviews R i off M Modern d Ph Physics i 24 (1952) 28 28. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
0.160
BNL Detector-Source Geometries (MCNPX)
1.000mm
32Si-32P
4.000mm
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
36Cl
BNL Detector-Source Geometries (MCNPX)
32Si-32P
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
36Cl
MCNPX Results
32Si-32P
36Cl
(32Si-32P)/36Cl
Per Source e(∆/°F) (∆/ F)
Norm.(70°F) (∆/°F) (∆/ F)
Per Source e(∆/°F) (∆/ F)
Norm.(70°F) (∆/°F) (∆/ F)
Ratio (∆/ F) (∆/°F)
Det. E Deposition (MeV/ptcl)
0.051(24)×10-6
10.1(67)×10-6
0.34(40)×10-6
39.8(67)×10-6
-17.7(40)×10-6
Det. Window e- Current
4.39(86)×10-6
12.1(33)×10-6
20.3(13)×10-6
35.3(33)×10-6
-14.6(21)×10-6
Det. Window E Current(MeV/ptcl)
1.48(45)×10-6
7.8(33)×10-6
4.32(32)×10-6
32.4(34)×10-6
-35.2(48)×10-6
Det./Source e- Current Ratio
6.8(32)×10-6
7.1(48)×10-6
29.5(24)×10-6
41.5(48)×10-6
-46.5(64)×10-6
Det./Source E Current Ratio
5.1(33)×10-6
5.2(47)×10-6
24.9(25)×10-6
33.7(48)×10-6
-37.9(63)×10-6
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PTB Detector
T. Alloway, Technical Inquiry, IG12. Private Comm. J.H. Jenkins, 2009. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PTB Backgrounds • Data provided by H H. Schrader for 226Ra was background corrected. • Cosmic background found to vary (Wissmann) annually ±1.92x10-3 nSv/s (6 9 nSv/h) (6.9 • 226Ra source, 300 ug, has activity of ~11 MB which MBq, hi h equates t tto a d dose rate t off ~2.1x104 nSv/s Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Radon Hourly Averaged
Centre for Radiation Protection and Radioecology (ZSR), Hannover University Month to Month 222Rn Measurements at ZSR, Hannover Germany 100 90
222Rn Activity (B 2 Bq/m3)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 5/00
6/00
7/00
8/00
9/00 10/00 11/00 12/00 1/01
2/01
3/01
4/01
5/01
6/01
Date 2 hr
4 hr
6 hr
8 hr
10 hr
12 hr
14 hr
16 hr
18 hr
20 hr
22 hr
24 hr
A. Abbady, A.G.E. Abbady, R. Michel, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 61 (2004) 1469.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Radon Monthly Averaged C t ffor Radiation Centre R di ti Protection P t ti and d Radioecology R di l (ZSR) (ZSR), H Hannover U University i it Monthly Average 222Rn Measurements from Abbady 2004 80
222Rn n Activity (Bq/m m3)
70 60 50 40 30 20 5/00
6/00
8/00
10/00
11/00
1/01
2/01
4/01
6/01
7/01
Month
A. Abbady, A.G.E. Abbady, R. Michel, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 61 (2004) 1469.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Radon Hourly Averaged C t ffor Radiation Centre R di ti Protection P t ti and d Radioecology R di l (ZSR) (ZSR), H Hannover U University i it Hourly Average 222Rn Measurements from Abbady 2004 80
70
222 2Rn Activity (Bq/m3)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Time of Day (hr)
A. Abbady, A.G.E. Abbady, R. Michel, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 61 (2004) 1469.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Countering Argument Papers
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Changes in total alpha and beta activity i a 226Ra in R source with ith ti time Relative a R activity
5 4 3 2 1
total beta
total alpha
-
10
20 30 Source age (yrs)
40
Data from A. A Karam, Karam JJ. Buncher and JJ. Mattes Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
50
Changes in total alpha and beta activity i a 238Pu in P source with ith ti time Relative a R activity
1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 5 total beta
total alpha
0 0
10
20
30
40
Source age (yrs) Data from A. A Karam, Karam JJ. Buncher and JJ. Mattes Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
50
60
Changes in total alpha and beta activity i an 241Am in A source with ith ti time
Rela ative activ vity
1 0.75 0.5 0.25
total beta
total alpha
0 0
10
20
30
40
Source age (yrs) Data from A. A Karam, Karam JJ. Buncher and JJ. Mattes Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
50
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Summary/Conclusions 1.
BNL and PTB data indicate an annual modulation of 32Si and 226Ra y rates strongly g y correlated with 1/R2 decay 2. Data taken during the 12-Dec 2006 solar flare on 54Mn also showed a response of the decay rate to solar activity. 3. These data are consistent with a modulation of nuclear decay rates by solar neutrinos and, perhaps, by some other field which modifies the fine structure constant, α, and/or some other fundamental constants. 4 4. Environmental influences on the detectors are not likely explanations of the observed effects: A. Detailed detector analyses B B. Phase/periodicity analyses
5.
More experiments are necessary
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
END
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Radioactive Decay Primer
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
α (alpha) decay decay, e e.g. g 226Ra Decay scheme from: http://www.nndc.bnl.gov
Graphic from: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
β (beta) decay, decay e e.g. g 32Si Decay scheme from: http://www.nndc.bnl.gov
G hi ffrom: htt Graphic http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu //h h i h t d
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
116m
In Decay
500 450 400
N ( t ) = N 0 e − λt
Cou unts/10s
350 300 250
−
200
dN ln 2 = λ N (t ), )λ= dt T1 2
150 100 50 0 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Time (s) Counts 116mIn
T1/2=54.2 =54 2 min
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12000
14000
116m
In Decay
500
7
450
y = -0.000203x + 6.044443 2 R = 0.980358 0 980358
400
300
4
250 3
200 150
2
100
1
50 0 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Time (s) Counts
ln(counts)
Linear (ln(counts))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12000
0 14000
ln(cou unts/10s)
5
350 Coun nts/10s
6
116m
In Decay
500 450 400
Countts/10s
350 y = 421.762694e-0.000203x R2 = 0.980358
300 250
T1 2 ≈ 56 min
200 150 100 50 0 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Time (s) Counts
Expon. (Counts)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12000
14000
Summary 1. 2. 3.
4.
BNL and PTB data indicate an annual modulation of 32Si and 226Ra decay rates strongly correlated with 1/R2 Data taken during the 12-Dec 2006 solar flare on 54Mn also showed a response of the decay rate to solar activity. activity These data are consistent with a modulation of nuclear decay rates by solar neutrinos and, perhaps, by some other th fifield ld which hi h modifies difi th the fifine structure t t constant, t t α, and/or some other fundamental constants. Detailed mechanisms to account for these data can be tested in upcoming NASA Mars missions and the NASA Sentinels mission. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
From: Radioactive Substances and Their Radiations, by Rutherford, Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
G T. G. T Emery, E P t b ti off Nuclear Perturbation N l D Decay R Rates, t A Ann. Rev. R N Nucl. l S Sci. i 22, 22 pg 165 (1972) (1972).
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
PTB 152Eu Data with USNO 1/R2 1.002
1.04
1.02 1.01
1
1.00 0.99
0.999
0.98 0 97 0.97
Date Eu-152
Normalized Ra-226
USNO 1/R^2 (a.u.)^-2
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
12/91
6/91
12/90
6/90
12/89
6/89
12/88
6/88
12/87
6/87
12/86
6/86
12/85
6/85
12/84
6/84
0.96 12/83
0.998
1/R2 (a.u.-2)
1.001
6/83
malized Curre ent Norm
1.03
Limits on Extra Dimensions and New Forces: Long-Range Limits
Reference: Coy, Fischbach, Hellings, Standish & Talmadge (2003) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Limits on New Yukawa Forces: Short-Range Limits
R f Reference: H l ett al., Hoyle, l Phys. Ph Rev. R D 70, 70 042004 (2004) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
NEW LIMITS
Reference: R. S. Decca, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 240401 (2005)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Capped 2-Material Experiment: Results 7 6 5 4
1020
3
16
Mohideen
10
2
US
1012
1
Lamoreaux
108
1
F
104
2
100
3 4 5 6 7
auged Baryon s
200
300
400
ge m odu lus Glu on m odu lus
10-7
10-6
500
z (nm)
Reference: R. S. Decca, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 240401 (2005)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Kapitulnik L Long
10-5
10-4
N(x) vs. vs x
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
N(x) vs. vs x
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
dN(x)/dx vs. vs x
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Ln[dN/dx] vs x X ≈ 0.693
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Determining α • Identify a mechanism where the transition rate of nuclei are modified by a term proportional to the density of neutrinos neutrinos. • D Determine t i th the parameter t α in i tterms off other quantities, such as the radius R of th sample the l and d η ((which hi h iis related l t d tto fundamental coupling constants). Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Determining α • To determine the density of neutrinos at each point in the sample – Divide the sample up into spherical shells – Divide the shells up into rings – Find the contribution from a ring to a point r from the center of the shell – Integrate over rings – Integrate over shells Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Geometry of Gold Sphere Experiment (at NIST)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Geometry II • Neutrino Density due to one ring
• One shell: Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Geometry III zIntegrating g g over all shells gives
zThis is non-trivial since the density of “emitters” (active nuclei) depends on the density of neutrinos! Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Approximations • To solve for the density of emitters:
zSolving to 1st order in the decay rate only requires 0th order in the neutrino density:
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Results for the neutrino density L di order Leading d
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Simulated Data: α α= 0.003 0 003
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Simulated Data: α = 0.003 0 003
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Space Probe Experiments
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
⎡ N (t ) ⎤ ⎢1- N (0) ⎥ ⎣ ⎦ Launch 8/3/2007
0.025 32Si
0.020 0.015 0.010
Arrival 5/25/2008
226Ra
0.005 0.000 -0.005 0
50
100
150
200
250
Time (Days since launch)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
300
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
⎡ N (t ) ⎤ ⎢1 − N (0) ⎥ ⎣ ⎦
226Ra
0
-0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08
32Si
-0.1 -0.12 -0.14 -0.16 -0.18 0
100 200
300
400
500 600
700
Time (Days since launch)
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
800
900
Potential Missions for Experiment •
Monitor decay rate on Earth. –
•
Precisely measure variations in decay rates between periapsis and apoapsis.
Stable orbit around stable Lagrange points. –
May have significant difference between apoapsis and periapsis.
•
Mars Science Laboratory.
•
Jupiter Polar Orbiter (Juno).
•
Europa Jupiter System Mission.
•
Titan Saturn System Mission.
•
Europa Astrobiology Lander.
•
Solar Probe Plus
•
Heliophysical Explorers Solar Orbiters and Sentinels.
–
Radioisotope R di i t power system t ffor generation ti off electricity l t i it ffrom the th heat of radioactive decay.
–
Map Jupiter's gravitational and magnetic fields.
–
Likely to have radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) on board.
–
Likely presence of RTG onboard.
–
Likelyy presence p of RTG onboard.
–
Spacecraft designed to plunge deep into the sun's atmosphere
–
Multiple close approaches to the sun.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
NASA’s Upcoming Missions
M Mars Science S i Laboratory L b t
Juno
Launch: September 2009
Launch: August 2011
• Ca Can measure easu e radiation ad at o p produced oduced by the interaction of space radiation with the Martian atmosphere and surface rocks and soils.
Will precisely map Jupiter's Jupiter s •Will gravitational and magnetic fields to assess the distribution of mass in J i ' iinterior, Jupiter's i iincluding l di properties of the planet's structure and dynamics.
• Carries radioisotope power system to generate electricity from plutonium's radioactive the heat of p decay. Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Other Possible Solar Effects
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Image credit: Original painting, Werner Heil, NASA, 1977. The image was developed by Prof. John Wilcox as a tool for visualizing the surface that separates the two magnetic polarity regions produced by the Sun in the solar system. His concept was that a "baseball seam" shape located near the Sun separates the two magnetic hemispheres of the interplanetary medium; the shape was determined by the large-scale magnetic field at the Sun. That geometrical shape is carried radially outward by the solar wind wind. As the Sun and the magnetic field configuration it generates continue to rotate underneath the structure, the resulting surface becomes the one you see in the painting.
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Magnetic Sensitivity Testing of 54Mn/NaI(Tl) Experiments
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
Magnetic Field Sensitivity Measurements (45o Orientation) Zero Field 0 Gauss
26000
Earth Field 0.42Gauss
2x Earth Field 0.85 Gauss
Earth Field 0.429 Gauss
25800
Counts/10s s
25600
25400
25200
25000
24800 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Count # Series1
+sigma
-sigma sigma
+3sigma
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
-3sigma 3sigma
1400
1600
December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data
17 05 17.05
17 Dec storm
17.04 ln(gross)
17.01
200
22 Dec storm
17.03 17.02
250
Ap Peak 00:00 12/15
150 12 Dec storm 100
17 16.99
50
16.98 16.97 16 97 11/29
0 12/4
12/9
12/14
12/19
12/24
12/29
Date ln(gross)
Ap
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/3
1/8
Ma agnetic Inde ex (Ap)
17.06
December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data 17.06
9 12 Dec storm
8 17 Dec storm
17.04
22 Dec storm
17.03 ln(gross))
7 6
17.02
5
17.01
4
17
3
16.99
2
16.98
1
16.97 16 97 11/29
0 12/4
12/9
12/14
12/19
12/24
12/29
Date ln(gross)
Kp
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/3
1/8
Ma agnetic Inde ex (Kp)
17.05
November ln(gross) decay with Ap Magnetic Data 17.17
90 80 70 60
17 13 17.13
50 40
17.11
30 20
Major Solar Storm 11 Nov
17.09
10 17.07 10/15
10/20
10/25
10/30
11/4
11/9
11/14
Date
ln(gross)
Ap
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
11/19
11/24
0 11/29
Magnetic Index M x (Ap)
ln(gross cts s)
17.15
November ln(gross) decay with Kp Magnetic Data 17.17
7
17.16
6 5
ln(gross cts s)
17.14 17.13
4
17.12 3
17.11 17 1 17.1
2 Major Solar Storm 11 Nov
17.09
1
17.08 17.07 17 07 10/15
10/20
10/25
10/30
11/4
11/9
11/14
Date
ln(gross)
Kp
Linear (ln(gross))
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
11/19
11/24
0 11/29
Magnetic Index (Kp)
17.15
Super-K Data Correlation = 0.38, 181 points, prob=3x10-7
1.04 0
1.15
1.03
1.1
1.02
1.05
1.01
1
1
0.95
0.99
0.9
0.98
0.85
0.97
0.8
0.96
10/28/95
3/11/97
7/24/98
12/6/99
4/19/01
9/1/02
Date
7 Pt Avgd Normalized Phi-nu
1/R^2
D t ffrom Yoo, Data Y ett al., l Phys Ph Rev R D 68, 68 092002 (2003) Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
1/R R2, a.u.-2
Normalized Nu-flux
1.2
PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized 1.002
1.0E-05
1.001
8.0E-06
6.0E-06 0.999
5.0E-06 4.0E-06
0.998
3.0E-06 2 0E 06 2.0E-06
0.997
1.0E-06
Date (2006)
Measured
X-ray X ray SHORT
X-Ray X Ray LONG
Jenkins and Fischbach, et al.; Nuclear Decay Rates and Solar Activity
11/29 9
11/24 4
11/19 9
11/14 4
11/9 9
11/4 4
10/30 0
10/25 5
0.0E+00 10/20 0
0.996
W/m^2 W
7.0E-06
1.000
10/15 5
ln n(4 hr count)/line fit va alue(t
9.0E-06
