European Chemistry Report The European chemical & pharmaceutical industry in facts and figures
Production: trend reversal From January to May, the production was above last year. Especially polymers experienced a dynamic growth in the last months and were 5.3 percent above last year’s first five months. But the upward trend stopped. What looked like a breather at the beginning of the year is now a trend reversal. Capacity utilization: high Capacity utilization was slightly below the utilization rate of the last quarter 2016, but remained on a very high level. In the last three months of 2016, the production growth acceleration of the recent months let to the highest capacity utilization since 2008. Producer prices: price rise stopped Prices rallied sharply in the first quarter of 2017. After prices stagnated in April prices dropped in May compared to the previous month. It remains to be seen whether April and May were a gaffe or the beginning of a trend reversal. Sales: strong upward tend The sharp price rise and the stable production in the previous months led to a strong increase of sales. Growth has continued without a break for the last ten months until
2017-06-28
April 2017. In April, sales were below the previous months. Foreign trade: new export record After a new export record in March, exports of chemicals dropped. However, monthly trade data is very volatile and month to month comparison can be misleading. Therefore trend monitoring is more reliable. The upward trend for export remains stable in the first four months of 2017. Business expectation: very optimistic The majority of the chemical companies are quite positive about the business situation. The assessment of the business situation is very good. The companies are very optimistic regarding further business developments. percentage change indicator
last
against previous year cumulated
production
1,9
4,1
producer price
Mai'17
4,8
4,5
sales
Apr'17
6,1
4,7
exports
Apr'17
10,5
0,0
imports
Apr'17
4,9
-1,9
employment
Q1/17
0,8
0,8
cumulated
percentage change against previous year production
Jan.- Mai'17
1,9
producer price
Jan.- Mai'17
4,8
sales
Jan.- Apr'17
6,1
exports
Jan.- Apr'17
10,5
imports
Jan.- Apr'17
4,9
employment
Q1 - Q1/17
0,8 -2
0
2
last update
update Mai'17
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Source: Eurosta, VCI
Verband der Chemischen Industrie e.V., Mainzer Landstraße 55, 60329 Frankfurt, Germany Contact: Carolina Hupfer (phone +49 69 2556 1439) Email:
[email protected] Published on the VCI site under “Die Branche/ Wirtschaftliche Lage
Production 120
Index 2010=100
in percent
115
9
110
6
105
3
100
0
95
-3
90
-6
85
2012
2013
2014
changes yoy Production, seas. adjusted
2015
2016
From January to May, the production was above last year. Especially polymers experienced a dynamic growth in the last months and were 5.3 percent above last year’s first five months The upward trend stopped. What looked like a breather at the beginning of the year is now a trend reversal. Strong growth impulses came from the production of polymers.
12
-9
2017
Production, trend 2015
2016
May'17
Jan.- May'17
change in % against previous year 1,8
4,1
1,9
1,0
0,7
3,3
2,8
1,9
-2,8
2,9
3,3
petrochemicals
-3,0
0,6
-4,7
-2,2
polymers
-0,2
2,1
3,2
5,3 1,5
chemicals & pharmaceuticals
3,9
chemicals anorganics
specialties
5,0
1,3
2,7
consumer chemicals
0,8
0,6
6,9
2,2
7,2
3,3
5,7
1,2
pharmaceuticals Source: Eurostat, VCI
Capacity utilization 90
Capacity utilization was slightly below the utilization rate of the last quarter 2016 but remained on a very high level. In the last three months of 2016, the production growth acceleration of the recent months let to the highest capacity utilization since 2008.
in percent
85
80 75 70 65
60 55 50
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
Q1/17
Q1/17 - Q1/17
Capacity utilisation in % chemical/pharmaceutical industry
81,4
82,0
Source: Eurostat, VCI
2
83,1
83,1
Producer Price 115
Index 2010=100
in percent
Prices rallied sharply in the first quarter of 2017. After prices stagnated in April prices dropped in May compared to the previous month. It remains to be seen whether April and May were a gaffe or the beginning of a trend reversal. This price rise of the previous months was mainly driven by petrochemicals, inorganics and polymers.
10
110
5
105
0
100
-5
i it remains to be seen whether 95
2012
2013
2014
2015
% change against previous year
2016
2017
-10
Producer price index 2015
2016
May'17
Jan.- May'17
change against previous year chemicals & pharmaceuticals
-3,8
-2,7
4,5
4,8
chemicals
-4,7
-3,6
5,6
5,9
-6,9
-5,3
8,0
8,7
-11,8
-6,4
14,5
15,1
polymers
-2,5
-3,3
5,9
4,1
specialties
-0,8
-0,7
2,5
2,2
0,5 -0,3 -47,1
-0,1
0,5
0,2
0,3 -15,9
1,1 7,9
1,4 38,4
inorganics petrochemicals
consumer chemicals pharmaceuticals Oil (Brent Blend) Source: Eurostat, VC
Sales 120
Index 2010=100
in percent
115
20
110
15
105
10
100
5
95
0
90
-5
85
2012
2013
2014
changes against prev. Year
2015
2016
The sharp price rise and the stable production in the previous months led to a strong increase of sales. Growth has continued without a break for the last ten months until April 2017. In April, sales were below the previous months. Sales of chemicals were 7.9 percent above last years in the first four months of 2017.
25
-10
2017
Sales (seasonally adj.)
Sales (Trend)
2015
2016
Apr'17
Jan.- Apr'17
change against previous year chemicals & pharmceuticals chemicals
pharmaceuticals
1,3 -2,7 10,1
0,1 -2,1 4,7
Source: Eurostat, VCI
3
4,7 8,5 0,1
6,1 7,9 4,2
Foreign Trade 170
After a new export record in March, exports of chemicals dropped. However, monthly trade data is very volatile and month to month comparison can be misleading. Therefore trend monitoring is more reliable. The upward trend for export remains stable in the first four months of 2017. Imports also grow in the first four months.
Index 2010=100
160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
2012
2013
2014
Export
2015
2016
2017
Exports, Trend Apr'17
Jan. - Apr. 2016
Apr'17
Export regions
Jan.- Apr'17 Import
change against previous year
Extra - EU 28 NAFTA USA Asia Japan China Latin America Africa
0,0 -2,0 -4,4 6,1 16,3 5,2 -5,3 -7,5
10,5 8,8 7,8 13,4 13,3 20,6 4,4 7,4
10,5 -1,9 -10,2 -10,2 6,2 -10,0 7,2 7,2
4,9 -0,9 -0,8 5,4 2,1 5,8 -1,6 14,7
Source: Eurostat, VCI
Employment 1800
In the first quarter of 2017, more than 1.76 Million people worked in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry in Europe. Chemical companies as well as pharmaceutical companies created jobs.
in 1000
1750
1700 1650 1600 1550 1500
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2015
2016
Q1/17
Q1/17 - Q1/17
percentage change against previous year chemicals & Pharmceuticals chemicals
pharmaceuticals
1,2 0,2 3,1
0,4 0,5 0,2
Source: Eurostat, VCI
4
0,8 0,6 1,2
0,8 0,6 1,2
Outlook
good / better
satisfactory / about the same
bad / worse 2012
2013
2014 Business situation
2015
2016
2017
Business expectations
Source: European Commission, VCI
The majority of the chemical companies are quite positive about the business situation. The assessment of the business situation is very good. The companies are very optimistic regarding further business developments.
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