EU membership: Benefits and challenges for Wales

GROWING IDEAS FOR OUR SHARED FUTURE MEITHRIN SYNIADAU ER LLES DYFODOL PAWB EU membership: Benefits and challenges for Wales A research report for Jil...
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GROWING IDEAS FOR OUR SHARED FUTURE MEITHRIN SYNIADAU ER LLES DYFODOL PAWB

EU membership: Benefits and challenges for Wales A research report for Jill Evans MEP

Lila Haines With Anna Nicholl

July 2015

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Foreword This is a crucial time for Wales in Europe. The UK government has decided to hold a referendum before the end of 2017 on whether we should remain a member of the European Union (EU). This is a major strategic choice which will have implications for decades to come. It is about the kind of Wales we want to build for the future. Plaid Cymru has a vision for Wales as a successful, modern, bilingual European nation and an equal partner in the EU. That's what we aim for. There are many benefits for Wales in EU membership that cannot be easily quantified, such as the impact of social legislation on employment, equality, health, and environmental issues. The EU has led the way on combatting climate change, to which our National Assembly is committed. One of its greatest successes is helping to prevent armed conflict between its members during its sixty years of existence. Access to the Single Market supports some 200,000 jobs in Wales and is the largest single trading block in the world. Many international companies choose to base themselves in Wales because it is in this lucrative European market. There are other benefits to EU membership that can be quantified. The UK is the most unequal society in Europe in terms of the gap between the wealthy and the poor and yet has never had an effective policy to address this. In contrast, the EU has a successful regional strategy which targets aid at less developed or less successful regions to help them build a sustainable economy. It demonstrates real solidarity to help the poorer areas reach the same level as the richer ones. The 2014-2020 period will be the third time that the West Wales and the Valleys region will receive the highest level of this EU regional funding because of our low GDP levels. We know what this means in terms of overall figures, but this report looks more closely at what a difference it has made on a regional and local level. But the EU provides many other funding opportunities from which Wales has benefitted to a greater or lesser degree, for agriculture, fishing and rural areas, for education and training, for research and innovation, and student and youth exchanges, for example. It is essential that we have an open and honest debate on Wales's future within the EU and to do that we need to know the facts. Previous research I published showed that Wales is a net beneficiary of EU membership. This report confirms that. My intention is that the information provided here will help inform the discussion. It is an independent and factual analysis of how Wales benefits financially and my thanks to Lila Haines and Anna Nicholl for their excellent and thorough work. What this report does not show is the potential for Wales to benefit even more from EU membership. A Welsh Government with vision and ambition could achieve so much more by working directly and closely with the European Commission and with other countries. Wales should be an active and enthusiastic partner. Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales will support continued membership of the EU. We will continue to work for reforms: for a better and fairer EU where Wales has its own seat at the table. We want a Europe that puts the interests of people first and which helps strengthen the economy and safeguard our rights and values. These will be the subject of future papers. Jill Evans Member of the European Parliament for Wales 6 July 2015

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Introduction

5

Executive Summary

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The financial dividend 1. European Structural Funds  Achievements 2. Rural Wales 3. Marine and fisheries 4. European Territorial Cooperation 5. Other Funds  Lifelong Learning Programme  Research and development: FP6 & FP7 Contributions to and receipts from the EU Budget Welsh contributions and receipts

7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12

Towards 2020 EU Structural Funds Climate change action Rural support Transnational cooperation Non-allocated funding

14 14 15 15 16 16

Political challenge Trade benefits and risks

17 18

Recommendations

19

Appendices

21

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Introduction This report collates known funding allocations and other identifiable European payments to Wales during the period 2000-2013, estimating the Welsh share of other funds where Walesspecific data are not available.1 It also looks forward towards 2020, outlining the funding opportunities and seeking to identify challenges and dangers ahead, including some of the possible trade and funding implications for Wales should the UK-wide electorate vote to withdraw from membership of the European Union. Official records indicate that Wales has received a substantial boost from the European Union since 2000. As well as access to the single market and the benefits of positive environmental, working conditions and equality regulations, EU funds have benefitted a broad spectrum of Welsh communities, organisations and individuals. Financial transfers tell only part of the story. How successfully funding is used is highly relevant in any assessment of benefits, but such an in-depth analysis is beyond the scope of this study. However, an indication of the impact on Welsh life may be gained by considering examples of how EU funding has supported achievements: new jobs and skills; environmental protection and enhancement; better roads, harbours and town centres; high quality research and development; community assets; arts and culture; bedrock support for rural Wales; business support and creation. A new round of European Funding is now underway, with West Wales and the Valleys again receiving substantial support to help that region break out of the "less-developed" category in which its low GDP continues to place it. This and other funds are intended to focus on achieving key developmental and environmental breakthroughs as well as offering on-going market support as in the case of rural payments. Crucially, the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) allocates serious sums towards safeguarding our environment and stepping up measures against climate change: using this to maximum effect is one of the challenges ahead. Other challenges include finding ways to maximise Welsh benefit from pan-European funds such as those for research and development or learning. However, the biggest challenge - and danger - may be political: the possibility that the UK-wide electorate may vote in favour of withdrawal from EU membership. This report raises some of the issues needing urgent consideration sooner rather than after such an event: what the loss of European funding might mean for Welsh communities, institutions and individuals; how to retain the environmental, employment, equality and other social benefits currently safeguarded under EU regulations; the loss of access to the European single market and re-negotiation of overseas trade agreements. Safeguarding Wales' interests looks set to be challenging. 1

The possible Welsh share was estimated using mid-2013 population estimates (UK: 64.1m, Wales: 3.1m / 4.8% of UK total http://ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-andnorthern-ireland/2013/info-population-estimates.html

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Executive Summary Wales has benefited from a European financial dividend since the beginning of this millennium: some £9 billion flowed in from the two major funding streams - £4 billion of EU Structural Funds plus £5 billion support under the Common Agricultural Policy between 2000 and 2013 - plus smaller sums from other funds supporting learning, technology, cross-territorial cooperation, infrastructural upgrades and more. In cash flow terms Wales has made a net profit from EU membership: each individual man, woman and child in Wales gained more than s/he contributed. Numbers tell only part of the story. EU funding made a positive impact across a broad spectrum of Welsh life in the form of new jobs and skills; environmental protection and enhancement; better harbours, roads and town centres; high quality research and development; community assets; arts and culture; bedrock support for rural Wales; business support and creation. New allocations from the two major European funds have been made for the period 2014-2020: €2,412.5m from Structural Funds to West Wales & the Valleys and East Wales; €2,245m to support a possible16,550 Welsh farmers, and €355m for the Rural Development Programme. There is considerable scope to improve the Welsh share of grants from smaller, non-ringfenced funds: for example, from Erasmus+ to enhance knowledge and skills, or from Horizon 2020 to support research and technological development and help to turn new technologies into products with real commercial potential. At least 25% of ERDF programme funds is meant to be used to support climate change objectives - in cash terms at least €372.7m and possibly €558m. We suggest that the Welfare of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 has a role to play in helping to guide decisions. If the UK-wide electorate votes in favour of withdrawal from the EU, safeguarding Wales' interests will become even more challenging. Areas of concern include continuation of even the current round of European funding as well as future sources; the future of employment, equality and environmental benefits currently safeguarded under EU regulations; possibly the very existence of some areas of Welsh agriculture; destabilisation of Welsh trade with Europe and beyond. Questions to be answered urgently by the UK Government include: 

What support will it provide to agriculture in the absence of the Common Agriculture Policy?



How will it support communities to reach a developmental level comparable with that of the UK average?



Will it provide the necessary funding and leadership to tackle climate change, the greatest challenge of our age?

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The financial dividend “Since 2000, our economy and people across Wales have benefitted from some £4 billion of EU Structural Funds. From 2014, Wales will receive another £2 billion of Structural Funds to help support growth and increase jobs.” - Wales European Funding Office2 The sources of the funding referred to here have been primarily the European Structural Funds: the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), which includes the Territorial Co-operation programmes, and the European Social Fund (ESF). The ERDF and the ESF are part of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), the group of funds through which finance is channelled to implement the EU's Regional Policy. The ESIF also includes the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), which helps to support the Welsh Rural Development Plan, and the European Fisheries Fund (EFF). Wales also receives major inflows from the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), totalling about £5 billion3 (c€6 billion) in direct payments to farming businesses over the 2000-2013 period. In addition Welsh organisations have been able to apply to funding streams such as the Lifelong Learning Programmes (now Erasmus+), and the 6th and 7th Framework Programmes for Research and Technological Development (FP6 and FP7).

1. European Structural Funds During the period 2000-20064, European funding together with match funding from a variety of sources generated over £3.8 billion (c€4.75 billion) of total project investment in Wales. The equivalent sum for 2007-2013 was £3.7 billion (c€4.63 billion). Together, they amount to an estimated £7.5 billion (c€9.4 billion) total investment for the 2000-13 period, which equates to over £2,400 / €3,000 per person in Wales.5 Support under the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and European Social Fund (ESF) totalled over £3.6 billion (€4.5 billion) over the two periods: 6

ERDF & ESF 2000-2013 (All programmes) (£) 2000-2006

1,615,108,110

2007-2013

1,990,276,808

2000-2013

3,605,384,918

2

http://wefo.wales.gov.uk/programmes/?lang=en Note: While official contracts relating to EU funding are expressed in euros, it was not always possible to locate the final figures for each; therefore the currency in which sums are expressed in this report is that in the most reliable available source. Where that currency is £Sterling it is followed by an approximate equivalent in euros; given currency fluctuations these are estimates which should not be taken as official figures, 4 The Objective 1, 2 and 3 programmes in Wales closed on 30 June 2009. The Equal, Interreg IIIA, Leader+ and Urban II community initiatives closed on 31 December 2008. 5 Official sources note that organisations in Wales also benefited by delivering related project activities: as at 31 December 2014 projects with completed procurement exercises had awarded contracts worth over £1.2 billion to organisations, 64% of contract value to the private sector and 15% to the third sector. 6 WEFO 3

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The second largest tranche of European support for Wales (after the CAP's direct payments to farmers) was allocated for the West Wales & Valleys and East Wales Operational Programmes.

ERDF & ESF Operational Programmes 2007-13 (€) ERDF7

Financial allocations West Wales & the Valleys

1,250,378,189

833,585,460

72,451,721

63,597,452

1,322,829,910

897,182,912

East Wales Totals

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ESF

 Achievements Over their lifetime, the 2000-06 programmes were expected to have created 46,000 net additional jobs, supported over 200,000 businesses, and helped some 96,000 unemployed or economically inactive people into work or training9. For the 2007-13 period it was anticipated that more than 26,000 opportunities would be generated for businesses and more than 650,000 employment and training opportunities for individuals across Wales,10 and by 31 March 2015 the projects had reported the following achievements.11 Progress of 2007–2013 European Structural Funds programmes Key output achievements as at 31 March 2015 Output achievement

ERDF

ESF

Participants assisted

n/a

589,289

Participants entering employment

n/a

63,659

Participants gaining qualifications

n/a

196,929

Enterprises assisted

14,955

n/a

Enterprises created

10,452

n/a

Jobs (gross) created

30,799

n/a

2. Rural Wales During the period 2007-13 Wales benefitted from around €3 billion of funding from the 12

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the European Union's agricultural policy. The CAP provides vital support for rural Wales in two ways:

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http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/index.cfm/en/atlas/programmes?countryCode=UK®ionId=361 http://ec.europa.eu/social/esf_budgets/results.cfm 9 http://www.wefoprojects.wales.gov.uk/ 10 http://wefo.wales.gov.uk/programmes/progress/?skip=1&lang=en 11 http://gov.wales/docs/wefo/publications/150619progressof20072013programmesen.pdf 8

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EU Policy Update (EU2013.04): Reform of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Research Service

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 

The European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) underpins the livelihoods of Welsh farmers and supports them to protect the environment. The European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), jointly with the Welsh Government, funds the Welsh Rural Development Plan, which supports rural communities, businesses and the countryside.13 Wales: Common Agricultural Policy payments 2007-13 (€) Single Farm Payments, Pillar 1, per annum (approximate)

€370m

Rural Development Plan for Wales, Pillar 2 of CAP, 2007-13

€340m

Total for period (approximate)

€3 billion

3. Marine and fisheries Promoting a sustainable and profitable fisheries sector with strong local communities was the purpose of the 2007-2013 European Fisheries Fund (EFF), which had replaced the Financial Instrument for Fisheries Guidance (FIFG) grants14. Activities supported included adaptation of the Welsh fishing fleet, diversification of aquaculture and inland fishing, investment in processing and marketing, and measures to protect and develop aquatic fauna and flora. For the period covered by the EFF programme, the UK received about £97m, with the Welsh budget totalling £18.5m15. European Fisheries Fund 2007-13: Welsh budget16 Convergence Fund area Non-Convergence Fund area Total Welsh budget

£16.1m / c€20m £2.4m / c€3m £18.5m / c€23

4. European Territorial Cooperation European Territorial Co-operation (ETC) programmes - often referred to as Interreg address issues which cut across national borders, providing the opportunity to co-ordinate actions to solve common challenges. Wales benefitted from (identified) ETC programmes

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More than £500m / c€600m has been invested since 2007 in initiatives such as Farming Connect and the Kite project to help increase the competitiveness of farms and rural businesses and improve the quality of life for rural communities and the environment. 14 The European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF), which is the successor to the EFF, was still being developed by Defra and the MMO at the time of writing this report. The EMFF was scheduled to be launched in early 2015 with further details being published on the MMO website. 15 Wales and the European Union: Annual Report for 2013 and Work Programme for 2014, Welsh Government 16 The most recently available Welsh Government records reveal that £13,264,926.92 of public funding had actually been allocated to named projects. (Figures given in £Sterling by WG.) http://wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside/fisheries/europeanfundforfisheries/effdocs/transparencyinitiative/?lang=en

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during the period 2007-2013 valued at more than €63, of which the ERDF contributed almost 17

€41.6m.

European Territorial Cooperation 2007-13: value of Welsh programmes Programme

Welsh programme costs €

ERDF allocations to Welsh programmes €

Atlantic Area

7,217,195.00

4,618,356.00

Interreg IVC

2,774,582.00

2,080,936.00

Ireland-Wales

37,096,481.00

26,315,406.00

North West Europe

16,251,865.00

8,559,665.00

Totals €

63,340,123.00

41,574,363.00

5. Other Funds Organisations and individuals in Wales are entitled to apply for funding from a range of programmes that are open to the whole UK, to groups of countries or to the entire European Union. As a breakdown of funding is not available in the case of non-regionalised programmes or those not pre-allocated (as confirmed to us by the Commission) we base our estimates for Wales on those it has been possible to obtain, and here consider some of the key funds.

 Lifelong Learning Programme In the absence of comprehensive information for Wales under the Lifelong Learning Programme (Erasmus, Leonardo da Vinci, Comenius, Grundtvig and Jean Monnet) examples of identified payments such as the following have been used as indicators: Lifelong Learning Programmes

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(€m)

Comenius grants 2013

1.26

Erasmus, 2010-11

1.8

Leonardo, Grundtvig & Transversal 200919

2.02

Leonardo, Grundtvig & Transversal 201020

1.5

Payments vary from year to year, depending on applications and their success rate. Nevertheless using the above and other figures as a guide to the trend, it may be estimated that Wales received at least £23.5m / c€29m from these funds over the 2007-13 period. 17

18

http://wefo.gov.wales/programmes/20072013/europeancooperation/?lang=en

Various sources including programme website. Ecorys report submitted to National Assembly European and External Affairs Committee inquiry, EUR(3)-14-10-p2 : 19 October 2010 (eur_3_-14-10-p2-e_ecorys-English.pdf) 20 Directory of Lifelong Learning Projects in Wales 2010 Call, Ecorys (2010_Welsh_Directory_13_03_2012(1).pdf) 19

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 Research and development: FP6 & FP7 The 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7) had a total budget of over €50 billion over its 2007-2013 lifespan. Its predecessor, Framework Programme 6 (FP6), covered a four-year period. Identified funding to Wales suggests that Welsh institutions received some €183.4m in total between 2002 and 2013.

Research funding to Wales21: value of EU funding (€m) Framework Programme 7 (FP7) 2007-13

125.6

Framework Programme 6 (FP6) 2002-2006

57.8

Total 2002-2013

183.4

22

FP7 results (as reported up to March 2014) •

419 participations (2.5% of UK)



€138m approved (2.1% of UK)



Relative success in Health and Food, Agriculture, Fisheries and Biotech



Sectors (approx.): 70% HE, 24% Industry

Contributions to and receipts from the EU Budget The UK as a Member State is one of the larger contributors to the EU Budget. It is also entitled to a rebate, calculated in line with an agreed formula.23 Contributions, rebates and receipts vary from year to year, as can be seen in this table compiled from data in UK Treasury reports24. UK contributions to, rebate, and public sector receipts from the EU Budget (€m) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

13,056

9,798

9,814

14,169

14,076

15,583

17,034

Total public sector receipts

6,331

5,655

4,943

5,560

4,762

5,141

4,707

Net contributions

6,725

4,143

4,871

8,609

9,315

10,422

12,327

UK contributions, after deduction of rebate

Using this data set, indicative estimates may be made of the UK's average per capita contributions and receipts over the seven-year period in question25:

21

Wales and the European Union: Annual Report for 2013 and Work Programme for 2014, Welsh Government WEFO 23 The formula is set out in the Own Resources Decision and in a Working Methods Paper 1988 plus revisions. 24 European Union Finances 2013: statement on the 2014 EU Budget and measures to counter fraud and financial mismanagement and European Union Finances 2014: statement on the 2014 EU Budget and measures to counter fraud and financial mismanagement 25 Calculated using ONS UK population estimate mid-2013: 64.1m. 22

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UK: contributions & receipts, 2007-13 (€) UK totals

Per capita average

Contributions

93,530

1,459

Public sector receipts

37,099

579

Net contributions

56,412

880

It should be noted that the EU makes some payments directly to the private sector26, for example to carry out research activities, and that these payments do not appear in the public sector’s accounts. Given the likelihood that there is even less clarity regarding such numbers in a Welsh context, we have (following the Treasury example) omitted them from the totals we use to achieve comparable estimates for Wales. The Treasury calculations encompass receipts from the EAGF, EAFRD, ERDF and ESF, plus undefined "Other Receipts". Data, or acceptable estimates, are available for Welsh receipts from the four major funds. Given lack of certainty regarding the "Other Receipts" category in the Welsh context, for the purposes of these calculations we assume it to include the European Fisheries Fund27 and the Lifelong Learning Programmes administered by National Agencies within the UK.

Welsh contributions and receipts Together the known transfers to Wales for 2007-13, plus estimated Lifelong Learning Programmes (extrapolated from known trends) suggest that Wales received some €5,318m during the period 2007-13. On the basis of a 3.08m28 population this equates to receipts of €1,727 per person in Wales, equivalent to €247 per person per year. Welsh receipts from European funds 2007-13 (€ m) ERDF & ESF (all programmes)

2,220

Common Agricultural Policy European Fisheries Fund European Territorial Cooperation Lifelong Learning Programmes (estimated) Total (known and estimated)

3,000 22

42 34 5,318

Wales: contributions & receipts, 2007-13 (€) Contributions, per capita (UK p.c. average)

1,459

Estimated receipts, per capita

1,727

26

HM Treasury estimated these receipts to be around £800m in 2014 and £1.5 billion in 2012. http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/eff/op/list_of_operational_programmes/uk_en.pdf 28 Mid-2013 population estimate - Note: population was slightly less in earlier years but to maintain consistency with UK level calculations we use the mid-2013 population estimate for both Wales and the UK. 27

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As noted above, in order to obtain as close as possible a comparison base with the all-UK Treasury data, Framework Programme 7 payments are not included here. By including the €125.6m for FP7 2007-13 the Welsh annual average for receipts would increase to €253 per capita, or €1,768 over the period. Whether FP7 funding is included or not, Wales and each individual man, woman and child gained more than s/he contributed each year during 2007-13. Clearly, the benefits varied across the country, but in cash flow terms Wales makes a net gain from EU membership.

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Towards 2020 Wales continues to receive significant levels of EU funding from several sources, with funding already allocated or expected under the following funds: • European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) • European Social Fund (ESF) • European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) • European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) • European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF)

EU Structural Funds Transfers to the UK for 2014-20 from the European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund have been allocated as follows across UK nations and regions: EU Structural Funds allocations to England and the Devolved Administrations 2014-20 England Scotland Of which: Highlands& Islands Rest Of Scotland Wales Of which: West Wales & the Valleys East Wales Northern Ireland Gibraltar

29

€m 6,937.2 894.6 193.0 701.6 2,412.5 2,005.9 406.6 513.4 10.5

It is predicted that the two major West Wales & the Valleys and East Wales programmes, now enjoying a third (possibly final) round of Structural Funding since the beginning of the millennium, will drive total investment of nearly four billion euros. Summary of financial allocations (€)

Operational Programme

EU contribution

Public Match Funding

Private Match Funding

Total Investment

West Wales & the Valleys ESF

802,340,298

218,298,428

58,356,483

1,078,995,209

West Wales & the Valleys ERDF

1,203,510,449

438,009,903

185,740,030

1,827,260,382

East Wales ESF

203,312,254

142,364,918

67,192,412

412,869,584

East Wales ERDF

203,312,254

135,049,971

68,262,283

406,624,508

Total allocations

2,412,475,255

933,723,220

379,551,208

3,725,749,683

29

Letter from Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, 17 April 2014.

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Climate change action The ERDF Operational Programmes for West Wales & the Valleys and East Wales indicate that more than 25% of their two budgets should be used to support climate change objectives. If the programmes succeed in attracting the indicated match funding, the amount available for climate change action could exceed €558m. Ensuring that such finance is used meaningfully is a key challenge, one that could usefully be considered side by side with the principles the Welfare of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. Indicative amount of ERDF programme funding to be used for climate change objectives (EU funds only) (€) West Wales & the Valleys ERDF

316,835,422

East Wales ERDF

55,868,442

Total climate change allocation

372,703,864

Rural support Under Pillar 2 of the CAP €355m has been allocated to support the Wales Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020, to help increase productivity, diversity and efficiency in Welsh farming and forestry; encourage sustainable land management and climate action; promote strong, sustainable economic growth and encourage greater community-led local development. The Direct Payments to Farmers scheme, designed to support farming incomes, will be worth approximately €2.245m up to 2020, giving Wales an 8.96% share of the UK‘s budget ceiling. UK CAP allocations 2014-2020 Pillar 1 / € million*

% Share

Pillar 2 / € million*

% Share

16,421

65.5

1,520

58.9

Northern Ireland

2,299

9.2

227

8.8

Scotland

4,096

16.3

478

18.5

Wales

2,245

8.96

355

13.7

England

*Figures are approximate and in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation over the period)

While support is lower than in the past, due to CAP reform, it continues to provide quite serious underpinning to farm incomes, as illustrated by 2012 payments in Wales: Wales: Average Pillar 1 payment per hectare 201230 Total Pillar 1 Envelope €m 357

Eligible hectares (million) 1.38

Number of eligible claimants 16,550

Pillar 1 € / eligible claimant 21, 544

30

CAP Reform 2014–20: EU Agreement and Implementation in the UK and in Ireland (updated), RP14/56 30 October 2014

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Transnational cooperation Wales will be eligible to participate in European Territorial Cooperation programmes. The Ireland-Wales programme has been approved and offers €79m in EU support for cooperative projects promoting innovation, climate change adaption, cultural and natural resources and heritage in large swathes of Wales and south-east Ireland. Ireland Wales Cooperation Programme 2014-2020: Summary of financial allocations (€) Match Public Private EU Total Funding Match Match Support investment Total Funding Funding 79,198,450 19,799,609 18,473,036 1,326,573 98,998,059

Non-allocated funding Ensuring that Wales gets maximum benefit from pan-EU funds worth £110 billion / c€137m presents another type of challenge, illustrated by the Welsh experience to date of two key funding streams. (Others include COSME, which helps SMEs gain better access to finance and markets, and Creative Europe which supports the cultural and creative sectors, including safeguarding cultural and linguistic diversity - see list in Appendix 3.) 

Research and development

Horizon 2020, the successor programme to FP7, offers support to research and technological development across the EU, helping innovative enterprises to turn new technologies into products with real commercial potential. Based on its population share Wales could, in theory, have received more than its actual 2.26% of UK participations in FP7. Realistically, this was unlikely as participation depends on a range of factors which may not have existed or not been marshalled adequately at the time. But there is much to gain from greater access, which should increase the likelihood of Welsh institutions carrying out high quality research the results of which, side by side with the commercial potential of the results, can be more meaningful than funding levels alone.31 

Learning programmes32

Erasmus+, which started on 1 January 2014, brought together the previous Lifelong Learning Programme (Erasmus, Leonardo da Vinci, Comenius, Grundtvig and Jean Monnet); the Youth in Action programme; five international cooperation programmes and the new sport action. Its lifetime budget is €14.7 billion for the development of knowledge and skills, with almost one billion euros allocated to the UK.

31

The Welsh Government has established SCoRE Cymru (Supporting Collaborative Research and innovation in Europe) to promote greater involvement. - http://wefo.wales.gov.uk/news/latest/130531score/?lang=en 32 The European Commission's Executive Agency directly manages some parts of Erasmus+ while national agencies in participating countries manage other parts - www.erasmusplus.org.uk in the UK.

16

There are no country quotas, but the UK National Agency monitors application data to identify areas that may be under-represented. From a Welsh perspective that information is revealing and points to a challenge of which the managing agency is aware.  

There were 30 successful applications from Wales in the first year, accounting for 3.7% of successful applications - lower than the Welsh share of the UK population (4.8%). Organisations in Wales were offered a lower proportion of all grants awarded relative to the Welsh share of the UK population across all programme fields; in the case of adult education organisations the proportion was just 0.2%.

Grants totalling €4,122,999 were allocated to Wales in 201433. If it is assumed that the UK will draw down its full allocation (almost €1 billion) over the seven-year period, and that the Welsh share will rise towards 4.8% of the total (in line with population) for the remainder of the period, Welsh grants could potentially reach over €47m. Welsh share of Erasmus+ grants Actual allocation 2014

€ 4,122,999

Potential Welsh allocation 2015-20

43,315,200

Potential Welsh total 2014-20

47,438,199

Political challenge The biggest challenge - and danger - may be political not financial. If the UK-wide electorate votes in favour of withdrawal from EU membership in the intended referendum, the issues needing to be resolved will include the future of European funding to Wales and other parts of the UK. -

Will the current round of European funding continue to its 2020 end date?

-

What support would a post-EU government in London provide to agriculture in the absence of the Common Agriculture Policy?

-

What assurances can London give to communities still in need of support to reach a developmental level comparable with that of the UK average?

-

Will a post-EU London government provide the necessary funding and leadership to tackle the greatest challenge of our age, climate change?

The first point would appear to be a matter for negotiation between the Member State (the UK) and the European Commission, and the Commission has given no indication to date of its views. Much would hinge on the willingness of the UK government of the day to support nations and regions whose development needs are explicitly recognised by the current allocation of European funding, and on the extent to which Wales and other nations and regions are involved 33

https://www.erasmusplus.org.uk/file/226/download

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in the process. The speed of the (hypothetical) withdrawal could be crucial, either giving time to reach appropriate agreements, or leaving vital issues unresolved in the wake of a rushed exit.

Trade benefits and risks There are also broader but highly relevant questions that would become problems for Wales in the event of UK withdrawal from the EU. To illustrate, we will briefly consider one key issue: overseas trade. 

Over 40% of Welsh overseas trade is with other EU countries34 according to UK customs import and export records. While this is lower than the UK level of 60%, it is a very significant proportion, facilitated by tariff-free access to the Single Market. (It may also be an underestimate as HMRC can only calculate with certainty the trade data for companies VAT-registered in Wale.)



The UK has benefitted considerably by attracting foreign investment wishing to use the country as a gateway to the wider EU market, from which Wales has doubtless gained too.



Other trade benefits of EU membership include preferential access to third country markets, through agreements that have been negotiated by the EU as a bloc.



Crucially, more than 190,000 Welsh jobs are in sectors heavily dependent on exports to other EU countries.35

These benefits would be in serious danger if the UK were to leave the EU. Therefore, it is timely to ask questions about the extent to which Wales would suffer from their loss; how the outcome of renegotiated agreements with European partners would affect Welsh trade; how the complexities of negotiating new global or bilateral trade and investment agreements would be managed and how quickly concluded; what impact any vacuum would have on business and livelihoods in Wales. Under the terms of the Lisbon Treaty both sides would have to negotiate to determine “the arrangements for its withdrawal”. The exact scope of this discussion – apart from fixing the date of exit – is not further defined. There is no precedent to help forecast the impacts of an exit by a Member State. The optimists assume that ex-partners would be willing to continue on the current basis, agreeing market access arrangements as advantageous as those currently in force. This cannot be assumed. Some observers suggest that free trade would continue as the basic rule, and that the other elements (the Single Market linkages) would automatically follow. Others argue that access to the Single Market would have to be re-negotiated.

34

43.5% of exports and 41.1% of imports, Third Quarter 2013 - HM Revenue and Customs, Regional Trade Statistics. 35 http://www.cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/UK-jobs-dependent-on-exports-to-the-EU.pdf

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Some talk of an arrangement similar to that of Norway and Iceland as members of the European Economic Area (EEA); however, these countries have no say in determining the content of EU Single Market Regulations but must accept them as part of the arrangement. Concern about trade arrangements goes further than trade with the rest of the EU. UK exporters would lose the preferential access they currently enjoy under free trade agreements the EU has negotiated with many third countries. "The loss of tariff preferences in third markets will hit UK exporters hard, and would raise the cost of tropical products especially (such as bananas, cocoa beans and coffee)" according to one former European Commission official.36 The UK would have to decide whether to negotiate similar trade deals with each individual country to replace the EU agreements. At the multilateral level, the UK is a member of WTO (the World Trade Organisation), which guarantees equal treatment on trade in goods and services with other members but provides no special access. To remain a WTO member and comply with WTO rules, the UK would have to create a new UK customs tariff (applied to imports of goods) and introduce its own services commitments to replace those offered by the EU.37 Overall, the inevitable uncertainties accompanying withdrawal from the EU would have a destabilising affect on Welsh overseas trade. Wales has a major stake in ensuring this is avoided and in being involved in every stage of negotiations regarding trade with the EU and other countries.

Recommendations The following recommendations relate solely to the issues considered in this report, which has not included broader European political questions. They arise primarily from the need for clarity, transparency and democratic engagement in both the pre-referendum period and, if necessary, in the process of negotiating withdrawal terms post-referendum. 1. We suggest that clarification be sought from the UK Government in respect of issues arising in this report, including the following: 1.1. How it proposes to support the agricultural sector in the absence of the Common Agriculture Policy. 1.2. How it would prioritise and adequately fund climate change action. 1.3. What plans it has to ensure that all communities currently qualifying for EU funding are supported to reach a developmental level comparable with that of the UK average. 1.4. If it proposes to make available funding streams equivalent to those currently available from Europe sources, such as research and development finance, and how it will ensure such funds are fairly and appropriately distributed across UK nations and regions.

36

What is the future of UK trade if the referendum rsults in an exit from the EU? - Roderick Abbot, eurobriefing by the European Movement, March 2015. 37

ibid

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1.5. Which are its priority countries for negotiation of new trade deals to replace arrangements that would be forfeited in the event of withdrawal from EU membership, and how it will ensure that Welsh and other devolved interests are adequately represented when reaching such decisions. 2. In order to help lay any concerns amongst beneficiaries, it would be advisable to seek assurances that the European funding allocated for the 2014-2020 period will continue to be disbursed to approved projects (subject to normal compliance etc requirements) until the agreed end dates. 3. In the interests of transparency and democratic inclusivity it would be helpful if the UK Government were to state clearly what mechanisms are or will be in place to ensure 1.1. That Welsh interests are represented and safeguarded at each stage of negotiation pre- and post referendum; and 1.2. That devolved Governments are consulted and engaged with in the process. 2. In the event that the UK votes to withdraw from EU membership, It would be helpful to know at an early date how the UK Government intends to ensure that such a withdrawal takes place in an inclusive and measured way, giving time to reach appropriate agreements, resolve vital issues and safeguard the interests of all citizens and of Wales and the other nations and regions.

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Appendices



Appendix 1: EU-funded Projects - some examples



Appendix 2: Key Indicator Achievements by Unitary Authority



Appendix 3: EU Programmes in Wales 2014-20



Guide to Acronyms



Select Bibliography

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Appendix 1: EU-funded projects - some examples European finance has made its mark on Wales through projects that reflect the nation's needs and leisure interests. The scale of EU funding, its penetration into much of Welsh life, makes it difficult to choose a representative sample of projects. What follows is a taste of that impact, an idea of what might be encountered on a journey around Wales, and a look at some projects with potential for major longer-term benefits.

Learn a skill, get a job, start a company... During the 2007-13 period alone EU finance helped nearly 197,000 of us to gain new qualifications and more than 63,000 into work. It supported the creation of over 30,600 new jobs and some 10,500 companies.

Breaking down barriers to work The multi-county South West Workways project helped individuals tackle barriers to finding employment, by providing job search support and access to training. It matched participants with local businesses, giving them an opportunity to gain the work experience vital to winning long-term employment - a goal achieved by 5,270 participants. The project, which served Neath Port Talbot, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and Swansea, cost a total of £25m, £16.7m of it from the ESF.

New role for redundant library When a new library opened in Pill, Newport, it left the old building redundant - until European funding helped transform it into a new resource centre for the community. Now known as the Pillgwenlly Community Learning Academy it's once again playing an important role in the life of one of Wales' most deprived communities: as home to social enterprises and a training company it provides skills training for local people, with on-site childcare. The £6.7m regeneration package (from the ERDF, the Welsh Government's Targeted Match Fund and local sources) also offered improvement grants to nearby businesses. Fair play for women The Agile Nation project led by Chwarae Teg set out to promote gender equality, support women's career advancement and help reduce the gender pay gap, financed by £12.5m from the European Social Fund and the Welsh Government. It offered evidence-based best practice to education professionals from 55 schools; taught the commercial benefits of diversity and modern practices such as flexible working and work life balance to over 500 businesses, more than half from the private sector; and helped over 2,900 women improve their career prospects, many into better-paid jobs and nearly 350 into more senior roles.

Zoning in to learning The new £32.4m Learning Zone in Ebbw Vale provides state-of-the-art education facilities for Blaenau Gwent and the Heads of the Valleys, and it does so with funding support from the ERDF. The Learning Zone is part of The Works, a regeneration project to turn the former Ebbw Vale steelworks site into a hub of learning, health, leisure and opportunity.

Enjoying Wales If you enjoy sport, like walking or cycling, travel by train or fancy learning to sail, then European funds may be helping you enjoy the experience.

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Take a walk around Wales... EU funds have developed and improved some of Wales’ top tourist attractions and heritage sites. One that's open to all, local or tourist, is the unique 870-mile long Wales Coast Path, the world’s first uninterrupted route along a national coast. Funding for its development included £4m from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

Sail away... The National Sailing Academy, which is due to open in Pwllheli this year, won £4m from the ERDF and Welsh Government match funding. The academy aims to develop the area as a world-class sailing destination. It will provide for national and international sailing events, open opportunities for more people to become sailors and to develop skills in outdoor activities, and be available for community events and activities. Also setting its sights on attracting international marine tourism, Saundersfoot Harbour in Pembrokeshire won £463,500 from the ERDF. Other maritime recipients included Coastal Tourism Centres of Excellence in Pembrokeshire, Aberdaron and Swansea.

Get on your bike... EU funds have helped develop sports and leisure facilities across Wales such as the 1,200 miles long National Cycle Network. The ERDF has also supported sustainable tourism including the efforts of the Cognation partnership (Neath Port Talbot, Merthyr and Caerphilly councils, Visit Wales and Natural Resources Wales) which developed Bike Park Wales in Merthyr, the UK’s first full-scale mountain bike park.

Take in a game... Parc Eirias is home to the Wales under-20s rugby team and a cornerstone of regeneration plans for Colwyn Bay, providing a venue for community, cultural and sporting events. Its stadium has an International Standard pitch and a 2,500-seat covered grandstand, plus a pitch protection system allowing spectators to stand on the pitch for outdoor concerts. There's also an indoor pitch, gym, high performance sports analysis facilities, and spaces for smaller social and business events. The EU’s Life+ Programme contributed £3.8m of the £6.5m cost, while the rest came from the Assembly Government, Conwy County Borough Council and Welsh Rugby Union.

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Pause for a Welsh lunch... Bodnant Welsh Food Centre, a centre of excellence to promote the best of Welsh food and drink, is one of the biggest investments in an independent consumer development in Wales. With a £6.5m price tag, the £2.7m support it received from the ERDF, the Welsh Government's Targeted Match Fund (dedicated to providing match funding for EU-backed projects) and the Rural Development Plan was crucial to its development.

Catch a train... An ERDF grant financed the refurbishment of Llandudno railway station, including a new ticket office, improved accessibility and specialist accessible toilet; a new car parking area, bus stops at the front of the station and additional bicycle storage facilities. Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Llandudno, Rhyl, Swansea, Port Talbot and Pontypridd railway stations also won EU grants to upgrade, as did the Cardiff-Merthyr Tydfil train service to increase its frequency. A grant of £2.6m awarded to upgrade railway stations in the Rhymney Valley - Abercynon, Bargoed, Pengam and Rhymney - aimed to increase public transport use and reduce car use through the provision of park and ride facilities.

Backing the future Some of the most pioneering EU-funded projects may not have caught the public imagination yet, but their impact could be far-reaching and good for our health and the planet.

Investing in state-of-the-art research... The Swansea University Institute of Life Sciences carries out research in areas such as cancer, obesity and diabetes. Its state-of-the-art medical research facility was built with EU backing, with £12.8m for phase two coming from the ERDF. On Swansea's east side a new Science and Innovation campus is being developed, with major EU support including a financial package of £60 million through the European Investment Bank and £40

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million in European Structural Funds. When fully developed, the new campus is expected to create 650 jobs and generate around £3bn of economic impact over 10 years. Aberystwyth University has been allocated £20m of EU investment for an Innovation and Enterprise Campus. The project will see the construction of modern facilities so that companies and researchers can undertake collaborative research to boost the bio-economy. The research is expected to generate innovative new products, services and spin-out companies in sustainable food, health, biotechnology and renewable energy.

Harnessing the tides... Swedish energy company Minesto is setting up its UK headquarters in Wales after securing £9.5m in EU finance to develop a £25m tidal energy initiative off the coast of Holyhead. The innovative ‘Deep Green’ scheme will design, manufacture and test a low velocity device to produce electricity from tidal and ocean currents. Deep Green’s underwater ‘kite’ technology can operate in waters where no other known technology can perform as cost-effectively, due to its unique ability to run in low velocity areas. If successful the company will manufacture ‘Deep Green’ devices for export, creating more local jobs.

Appendix 2: Key Indicator achievements broken down by Unitary Authority

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Appendix 3: European Programmes in Wales 2014-20

EU Regional Policy The EU’s Regional Policy, which aims to reduce economic disparities, is delivered through four funds together are known as the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) each of which is operational in Wales during the 2014-20 period: 1. European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) – helps new and existing businesses to grow and supports research and innovation, energy and infrastructure. This includes the Territorial Cooperation programmes. 2. European Social Fund (ESF) – helps increase skills and employment, tackles economic inactivity and poverty, and provides support for young people. 3. European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) –improves competitiveness for farming and forestry, protects the environment and improves the quality of life and diversification of rural economies. 4. European Maritime and Fisheries Fund – supports the development of sustainable fisheries and aquaculture.

ERDF & ESF - West Wales & the Valleys and East Wales Operational Programmes i Summary of financial allocations (euros) Operational Programme

EU contribution

West Wales & the Valleys ESF

Public Match Funding

Private Match Funding

Total Investment

802,340,298

218,298,428

58,356,483

1,078,995,209

1,203,510,449

438,009,903

185,740,030

1,827,260,382

East Wales ESF

203,312,254

142,364,918

67,192,412

412,869,584

East Wales ERDF

203,312,254

135,049,971

68,262,283

406,624,508

2,412,475,255

933,723,220

379,551,208

3,725,749,683

West Wales & the Valleys ERDF

Indicative amount of ERDF support to be used for climate change objectives (euros) West Wales & the Valleys

316,835,422

East Wales

55,868,442 372,703,864

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development ii

Wales as been allocated €355m (current prices) over the period 2014-20, under Pillar 2 of the CAP - see below. The Welsh Government has stated that, with other funding, the value of the RDP budget will be approximately £953m million for the period. European Maritime and Fisheries Fund iii

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The UK has been allocated €243.1m at but time of writing the UK Operational Programme had not been published, but it was expected to have a greater emphasis on protection of the marine environment. Common Agricultural Policy In addition to the four funds above the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund of the Common Agricultural Policy supports agricultural businesses through the Direct Payments to Farmers scheme Pillar 1 of the CAP. The purpose is to help farmers to manage their land in an environmentally friendly and sustainable manner and maintain animal welfare standards to make farms more resilient in the long term. This fund's Welsh annual budget will be €322m come 2019 (based on current prices) according to the then Minister for Natural Resources and Food in a November 2013 statement. Total payments may be in the region of €2.2bn but it is not yet possible to make an accurate forecast. As noted above, Wales will receive €355m (current prices) over the period 2014-20 via the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (Pillar 2, the rural development pillar, of the CAP).

European Territorial Co-operation These programmes - often referred to as Interreg - are supported under the ERDF to address issues that cut across national borders, providing the opportunity to co-ordinate actions to solve common challenges. For Wales, to date, the largest of these has been the Ireland-Wales programme for which €79m in EU support has already been approved for the 2014-20 period.

Other funds open to Wales EU funds totalling c£110bn are also open to Welsh applicants, but no specific sums have been allocated to Wales. 1. Horizon 2020 – promotes research and innovation by helping higher education and business to take their breakthrough discoveries from the lab to the market. 2. COSME – helps to improve the Competitiveness of Enterprises and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, by supporting them with better access to finance and markets. 3. Erasmus+ – funding for education, training and youth focussing on international study, work, training, teaching and volunteering opportunities. Sport funding focusses on co-operation and activities in grassroots sport. 4. Creative Europe – supports the cultural and creative sectors, enabling them to reach new audiences, develop skills for the digital age and safeguard cultural and linguistic diversity. 5. Connecting Europe Facility – supports the development of high performing, sustainable and efficiently interconnected trans-European networks in the energy, telecommunications and transport fields. 6. LIFE – funding for nature, biodiversity, conservation, environmental and climate change projects. 7. EaSI – funding to promote social innovation and social policy experimentation, employment services and labour mobility, support for microcredit providers and access to finance for Social Enterprises.

i

http://wefo.wales.gov.uk/programmes/westwalesvalleys/userfriendlyop/?lang=en http://gov.wales/docs/wefo/publications/150206erdfwwvuserfriendly.pdf http://gov.wales/docs/wefo/publications/150206esfeastwalesuserfriendly.pdf http://gov.wales/docs/wefo/publications/150206erdfeastwalesuserfriendly.pdf ii Written Statement by Welsh Government, 8 November 2013 iii https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/183357/20080912ukoperationalprogramme_1_.p df

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Guide to acronyms

Acronym

Full Title

What it does

CAP

Common Agricultural Policy

The EU's agricultural policy. It implements a system of agricultural subsidies and other programmes through two ʽpillarsʼ: Pillar 1 supports farmers’ incomes via the EAGF; Pillar 2 supports development of rural areas through rural development programmes, co-financed from the EAFRD and national etc sources.

CEF

Connecting Europe Facility

Finances projects that aim to fill the missing links in Europe's energy, transport and digital backbone.

Cohesion Fund

The Cohesion Fund is aimed at Member States whose Gross National Income (GNI) per inhabitant is less than 90% of the EU average. It aims to reduce economic and social disparities and to promote sustainable development.

CF

Comenius

COSME

The programme for the schools sector, now subsumed into Erasmus+. Competitiveness of Enterprises and Small and Mediumsized Enterprises

Helps to improve the competitiveness of SMEs, by supporting them with better access to finance and markets.

Supports the cultural, creative and audiovisual sectors, enabling them to reach new audiences, develop skills for the digital age and safeguard cultural and linguistic diversity.

Creative Europe

EAFRD

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development

Finances the EU's contribution to rural development programmes.

EAGF

European Agricultural Guarantee Fund

Primarily finances direct payments to farmers and measures regulating or supporting agricultural markets.

EaSI

Employment and Social Innovation programme

Promotes a high level of quality and sustainable employment, guaranteeing adequate and decent social protection, combating social exclusion and poverty and improving working conditions. Designated the more developed of two regions of Wales, East Wales is made up of Cardiff, Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Newport, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham

East Wales

EC

European Commission

The EU's executive body, designed to represent the interests of the European Union as a whole, not those of individual countries.

EMFF

European Maritime and Fisheries Fund

Supports the development of sustainable fisheries and aquaculture. Succeeded the European Fisheries Fund (EFF).

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Funds international study, work, training, teaching and volunteering opportunities. Sport funding focusses on co-operation and activities in grassroots sport.

Erasmus+

ERDF

European Regional Development Fund

Aims to strengthen economic and social cohesion in the European Union by correcting imbalances between its regions.

ESF

European Social Fund

Aims to help increase skills and employment, tackle economic inactivity and poverty, and provide support for young people.

ESIF

European Structural and Investment Funds

Made up of ERDF, ESF, Cohesion Fund, EAFRD & EMFF

Europe 2020 Strategy

The EU's growth strategy for the current decade.

FP6

6th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. (See Horizon 2020.)

FP7

7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. (See Horizon 2020.)

Grundtvig

Part of Lifelong Learning Programme 2007-2013, it supported individuals and organisations involved in non-vocational adult education to participate in European training activities and projects. Replaced by Erasmus+

Horizon 2020

Promotes research and innovation by helping higher education and business to take their breakthrough discoveries from the lab to the market.

Leonardo

Part of Lifelong Learning Programme 2007-2013, it supported vocational education and training organisations, staff and learners to work together with European partners to improve training, skills and employability.

LIFE

The financing instrument for the environment and climate action. The general objective is to contribute to the implementation, updating and development of EU environmental and climate policy and legislation by co-financing projects with European added value.

LLP

Lifelong Learning Programme

The Lifelong Learning Programme (LLP) was designed to enable people, at any stage of their life, to take part in stimulating learning experiences, as well as developing education and training across Europe.

MFF

Multiannual Financial Framework

The document setting out the priorities for how the Structural Funds will be used. It is not the budget but lays down the maximum annual amounts ('ceilings') which the EU may spend in different political fields ('headings') over a period of at least 5 years.

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OP

Operational Programme

The European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF)

Structural Funds

TC programmes

Territorial Cooperation programmes

Encourage cross-border, trans-national and inter-regional cooperation and harmonious and balanced development of the European territory. Part of Lifelong Learning Programme 2007-2013, it supported professionals working in education and training to exchange expertise and share best practice across Europe. Replaced by Erasmus+.

Transversal

WEFO

Document written by States and Regions and proposed to the European Commission, in order to establish the action plan for national and regional economic and social development. An OP diagnoses the situation and defines EU funds for each priority.

Welsh European Funding Office

West Wales and the Valleys

Manages the delivery of the EU Structural Funds programmes in Wales. West Wales and the Valleys, designated the less developed Welsh region: Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Pembrokeshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Swansea, and Ynys Mon.

Select bibliography Abbot, R. 2015, What is the future of UK trade if the referendum results in an exit from the EU? eurobriefing, The European Movement Allen, M. et al 2014, CAP Reform 2014–20: EU Agreement and Implementation in the UK and in Ireland (updated), RP14/56, Belfast, Cardiff, Dublin, Edinburgh, London British Council 2013, Annual Report 2012-13 ~ 2014, www.erasmusplus.org.uk in the UK Cable, V. (Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills) 2014, Letter: European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund: UK allocations 2014 to 2020 Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) 2014, UK jobs supported by exports to the EU, London Ecorys 2010, Directory of Lifelong Learning Projects in Wales 2010 Call ~ 2010, Report submitted to National Assembly European and External Affairs Committee inquiry Erasmus+ UK Programme 2014, 2014 Call Application Outcome Statistics for Rounds 1 and 2 Provisional European Commission 2007, European Social Fund financial allocations ~ 2014, The United Kingdom Operational Programme for the European Fisheries Fund 2007-2013

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~ 2014, United Kingdom Common Agricultural Policy HM Revenue and Customs 2013, UK regional trade statistics: third quarter 2013 HM Treasury 2013, European Union Finances 2013: statement on the 2013 EU Budget and measures to counter fraud and financial mismanagement and European ~ 2014, European Union Finances 2013: statement on the 2014 EU Budget and measures to counter fraud and financial mismanagement and European National Assembly Research Service 2013, EU Policy Update EU2013.04: Reform of Common Agricultural Policy Office for National Statistics 2014, Mid-year population estimates for the UK 2013 Wales European Funding Office 2008, Approved Projects 2000-2006 ~ 2014, Horizon 2020 ~ 2014, New £70,000 EU fund will help SCoRE Welsh innovation goals ~ 2014, Progress of 2007–2013 programmes ~ 2014, SCoRE Cymru ~ 2015, East Wales ERDF Operational Programmes ~ 2015, East Wales ESF Operational Programmes ~ 2015, Progress of 2007–2013 programmes ~ 2015, Unitary authority data ~ 2015, West Wales and the Valleys ERDF Operational Programmes ~ 2015, West Wales and the Valleys ESF Operational Programmes Welsh Government 2012, Wales and the European Union: The Welsh Government's EU Strategy ~ 2013, Written Statement: The Common Agricultural Policy budget for Wales 2014-2020 ~ 2014, Wales and the European Union: Annual Report for 2013 and Work Programme for 2014

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