AGENDA ITEM VII-F DRAFT
Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 Texas Institutions of Higher Education
January 2015
Strategic Planning and Funding
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Harold W. Hahn, CHAIR Robert W. Jenkins, VICE CHAIR David D. Teuscher, M.D., SECRETARY OF THE BOARD Gerald “Jerry” Korty, STUDENT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BOARD Dora G. Alcala Ambassador Sada Cumber Christopher M. Huckabee Jacob M. Monty Janelle Shepard John T. Steen, Jr.
El Paso Austin Beaumont Fort Worth Del Rio Sugarland Fort Worth Houston Weatherford San Antonio
Raymund A. Paredes, COMMISSIONER OF HIGHER EDUCATION Mission, Vision, Philosophy, and Core Values Agency Mission The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board promotes access, affordability, quality, success, and cost efficiency in the state’s institutions of higher education, through Closing the Gaps and its successor plan, resulting in a globally competent workforce that positions Texas as an international leader in an increasingly complex world economy. Agency Vision The THECB will be recognized as an international leader in developing and implementing innovative higher education policy to accomplish our mission. Agency Philosophy The THECB will promote access to and success in quality higher education across the state with the conviction that access and success without quality is mediocrity and that quality without access and success is unacceptable. The Coordinating Board’s core values are: Accountability: We hold ourselves responsible for our actions and welcome every opportunity to educate stakeholders about our policies, decisions, and aspirations. Efficiency: We accomplish our work using resources in the most effective manner. Collaboration: We develop partnerships that result in student success and a highly qualified, globally competent workforce. Excellence: We strive for preeminence in all our endeavors. The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age or disability in employment or the provision of services.
Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 for Texas Colleges and Universities Biennially since 1979, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board has calculated enrollment trends and expectations which are fundamental to higher education planning. In times of changing demographics like Texas is experiencing, these forecasts become even more critical as they inform the higher education community about anticipated enrollment if current enrollment patterns continue. The Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 is the 19th installment in the Coordinating Board’s series on this important topic. Enrollment Forecast Process The methodology used to produce the Enrollment Forecast has remained relatively unchanged since 1979. For public colleges and universities, it uses five years of past enrollment from Texas counties differentiated by age and race/ethnicity and applies these enrollment rates to population projections prepared by the Texas State Data Center. Forecasts for independent colleges and universities are derived using simple linear regression, also based on five years of past data. The methodology for both public and independent institutions does not consider possible future changes that could affect enrollments, such as improvements in high school graduation rates, increases in higher education enrollment by racial/ethnic groups, or changes in local policies. For that reason, the Forecast is conservative; it projects future enrollments if current trends continue. The five years used to determine this Forecast are fall 2009 through fall 2013. The growth rate at public and independent colleges and universities from fall 2009 through fall 2011 was 7.5 percent, whereas the rate from fall 2011 to fall 2013 was -1.2 percent. In this Forecast, the effect of the recent slowing in enrollment is moderated by the faster growth rate from 2009 to 2011 and complicated by demographic changes. The Enrollment Forecast concludes that, if current patterns persist, Texas public and independent two-year and four-year institutions will grow from the 1.44 million enrollees in fall 2014 to 1.47 million in 2015 (or 500,000 students more than in 2000). To begin the process of planning and preparing for the years beyond 2015, this report also estimates enrollments through 2025, which are predicted to be 1.64 million. (See Tables 1 and 2.) The projections in this report are lower to comparable years from the January 2013 Forecast. The 1.47 million enrollments projected for 2015 are about 25 thousand lower than projected in 2013, and the 1.56 million students for 2020 is 16,000 less than the earlier 1.58 million estimate. For public universities, fall 2014 enrollment totaled 604,000 students, or 119,000 more students than in fall 2005. Enrollments are projected to grow by 10.5 percent to 616,000 students for the five-year period from 2010 to 2015, , by 6.9 percent to reach 659,000 students in 2020, and then by 5.5 percent to reach 695,000 by 2025.
1
Texas public two-year colleges have generally grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to have more students than universities despite the declines experienced from 2011 to2014. Public colleges’ enrollment for fall 2014 totaled 716,000 students, an increase of about 150,000 students (26.6 percent) over fall 2005 enrollment. This Enrollment Forecast estimates a -2.0 percent enrollment decline at public colleges from 2010 to 2015 because of the decline in the most recent three years. The colleges’ pace of growth is anticipated to jump to 6.5 percent from 2015 to 2020. As a result of these increases, Texas public two-year colleges are expected to enroll about 775,000 students in 2020 and 816,000 in 2025. About 124,000 students enrolled in Texas’ independent colleges and universities in fall 2014. Independent college enrollments are forecast to grow to 127,000 in 2015, 130,000 in 2020, and 132,000 in 2025. No enrollment projections are made for health-related institutions because their enrollments are more closely tied to state policies than to state population changes, nor are projections made for career colleges because many lack a regional presence due to online offerings. Although not included in the forecast, Texas enrollments at these two institution types are included in the Closing the Gaps participation goal. With the inclusion of enrollments at the health-related institutions and career colleges, Texas is only about 35,000 students short of reaching its 2015 participation goal. Important Considerations The following points should be remembered when reviewing this Forecast:
The Texas State Data Center (TSDC) periodically updates its population projections and reconsiders the migration scenarios that should be used for longterm projections. This Forecast uses the TSDC’s 2012 population projections and, on the recommendation of the data center, the 0.5 migration scenario, which assumes rates of net migration that are one-half of those from 2000 to 2010.
The total population projected for 2015 used in the current enrollment forecast is 27,000,199; 3.6 percent lower than the prior projections. For the college-going 15-34 age group, the projected population is 5.3 percent smaller than prior projections. Because the population forecast is an integral part of the projection methodology, the lower projected population has a direct effect on anticipated enrollments. The other primary factor influencing projected enrollment is recent enrollment trends. As mentioned previously, fall enrollment at public and independent colleges and universities grew by 7.5 percent from 2009 to 2011, followed by a decline of 1.2 percent increase from 2011 to 2013. The decline of the past three years at public two-year colleges has been tempered in these projections by the rapid growth in the earlier two years and the conservative nature of the Forecast methodology. The Forecast model is strongly influenced by historical in-state enrollment patterns at each institution and projected population changes by county. This Forecast should not accurately reflect future enrollment if institutions recruit students from different
2
geographic areas or ethnic groups, as is the goal of CTG. Institutional decisions to change or impose enrollment limitations would also reduce the Forecast’s accuracy. Economics affect enrollment. Two-year college enrollment has usually expanded in times of increasing unemployment, in part because students want to prepare for better jobs or jobs in different fields. The early years of this five-year forecast were no exception to this phenomenon. However, the last few years have shown what has happened many times before; when the economy comes back many students, especially at the two-year level, bypass higher education for the workforce.
3
Table 1 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts - Texas Institutions of Higher Education Actual 2000
Actual 2005
Actual 2010
Actual 2014
Total Projections 2016 2020
2015
Public Universities
414,626
484,999
557,550
604,490
616,262
626,838
658,569
694,624
Public Two-Year Colleges
447,998
566,071
743,252
716,444
728,366
738,735
775,565
816,625
Independent Universities
108,315
114,984
122,894
124,436
126,925
127,742
130,193
132,978
Total
970,939
1,166,054
1,423,696
1,437,282
1,471,553
1,493,314
1,564,326
1,644,227
2025
Table 2 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment 2005-2010 Number Percent
Public Universities Public Two-Year Colleges Independent Senior Colleges and Universities Total
2010-2015 Number Percent
2015-2020 Number Percent
2020-2025 Number Percent
72,551
15.0%
58,712
10.5%
42,306
6.9%
36,055
5.5%
177,181
31.3%
-14,886
-2.0%
47,198
6.5%
41,060
5.3%
7,910
6.9%
4,031
3.3%
3,268
2.6%
2,785
2.1%
257,642
22.1%
47,857
3.4%
92,773
6.3%
79,901
5.1%
4
Figure 2 Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 10 Regions
5
Table 3 Enrollment Projections by Region Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education Actual 2005
Actual 2010
Act/Prelim 2014
Central Texas Region Texas A&M University Texas A&M University-Central Texas Texas State University - San Marcos The University of Texas at Austin University Subtotal
44,578 0 27,129 49,233 120,940
49,129 2,317 32,572 51,195 135,213
56,602 2,384 36,790 51,341 147,117
Austin Community College Blinn College Central Texas College District Hill College McLennan Community College Temple College TSTC Waco Campus Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Central Texas Regional Totals
30,499 14,351 8,704 3,084 7,638 3,897 4,528 72,701 193,641
41,582 17,755 12,737 4,429 9,912 5,966 4,976 97,357 232,570
7,912 15,308 1,661 11,478 34,582 7,826 11,433 90,200
Gulf Coast Region Prairie View A&M University Sam Houston State University Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas Southern University University of Houston University of Houston-Clear Lake University of Houston-Downtown University Subtotal Alvin Community College Brazosport College College of the Mainland Community College District
Total Projections 2016 2020
2025
59,500 2,449 36,905 52,609 151,462
62,500 2,484 37,339 53,244 155,567
66,875 2,620 38,830 55,608 163,933
70,000 2,777 40,604 58,956 172,338
37,917 18,767 10,657 4,026 8,291 5,784 4,082 89,524 236,641
38,460 19,330 10,985 4,049 8,274 5,858 4,192 91,148 242,610
39,178 19,910 11,112 4,104 8,301 5,939 4,231 92,774 248,341
42,037 22,409 11,687 4,252 8,414 6,306 4,338 99,443 263,376
45,139 25,978 12,596 4,346 8,606 6,842 4,444 107,951 280,288
8,781 17,236 1,867 9,557 38,752 8,099 12,900 97,192
8,343 19,573 2,305 9,315 40,914 8,668 14,438 103,556
8,434 19,849 2,233 9,266 40,898 8,732 14,869 104,281
8,526 20,032 2,243 9,321 41,481 8,779 15,312 105,693
9,003 20,505 2,254 9,534 43,654 9,083 17,218 111,251
9,507 21,200 2,268 9,811 47,059 9,583 19,938 119,366
3,828 3,604
5,721 4,174
4,914 4,155
5,007 4,225
5,111 4,314
5,452 4,609
5,871 5,020
3,992
4,352
3,863
3,920
3,949
4,023
4,106
6
2015
Actual 2005 2,215 35,595 4,576 9,799
Actual 2010 2,318 49,717 6,719 16,861
Act/Prelim 2014 2,048 47,476 6,629 18,693
2015 2,074 47,698 6,483 19,161
6,837
9,807
11,778
12,180
12,291
12,641
13,171
7,971
11,154
12,031
12,325
12,597
13,519
14,514
10,878 7,600 0 12,627 5,529 8,554 6,008 129,613 219,813
15,213 10,791 0 15,035 6,573 10,497 6,922 175,854 273,046
15,822 7,609 8,076 13,764 7,509 10,892 7,220 182,479 286,035
16,149 7,755 8,508 13,889 7,590 10,853 7,233 185,049 289,330
16,322 7,819 8,574 14,027 7,679 10,991 7,444 187,521 293,214
17,000 8,011 8,794 14,633 8,054 11,494 8,086 196,328 307,579
17,991 8,277 9,237 15,608 8,621 12,302 8,596 208,370 327,736
High Plains Region Texas Tech University West Texas A&M University University Subtotal
27,940 7,293 35,233
31,587 7,839 39,426
34,853 8,970 43,823
34,985 9,087 44,072
35,272 9,197 44,469
36,379 9,370 45,749
37,810 9,660 47,470
Amarillo College Clarendon College Frank Phillips College South Plains College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal High Plains Regional Totals
10,391 1,116 1,207 9,233 21,947 57,180
11,540 1,583 1,208 10,153 24,484 63,910
10,245 1,211 1,345 9,651 22,452 66,275
10,373 1,204 1,348 9,833 22,759 66,830
10,475 1,223 1,354 9,910 22,961 67,430
10,944 1,254 1,390 10,160 23,748 69,497
11,560 1,306 1,398 10,524 24,787 72,257
Metroplex Region Tarleton State University Texas A&M University-Commerce Texas Woman's University The University of Texas at Arlington The University of Texas at Dallas
9,140 8,677 11,326 25,216 14,399
9,340 10,280 14,008 32,975 17,128
11,681 11,490 14,924 34,853 23,095
11,706 12,015 15,330 35,367 23,557
11,803 12,194 15,563 35,842 24,092
12,082 12,817 16,536 37,882 26,377
12,289 13,479 17,782 40,752 29,472
Galveston College Houston Community College System Lee College Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College Lone Star College System Kingwood College Lone Star College System Montgomery College Lone Star College System North Harris College Lone Star College System Tomball College Lone Star College System University Park San Jacinto College Central Campus San Jacinto College North Campus San Jacinto College South Campus Wharton County Junior College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Gulf Coast Regional Totals
7
Total Projections 2016 2020 2,095 2,156 48,418 51,126 6,554 6,755 19,337 19,974
2025 2,239 54,711 7,031 21,076
University of North Texas University of North Texas at Dallas University of North Texas at Dallas Law University Subtotal Collin County Community College District DCCCD - Brookhaven College DCCCD - Cedar Valley College DCCCD - Eastfield College DCCCD - El Centro College DCCCD - Mountain View College DCCCD - North Lake College DCCCD - Richland College Grayson County College Navarro College North Central Texas Community College District TCCD - Northeast Campus TCCD - Northwest Campus TCCD - South Campus TCCD - Southeast Campus TCCD - Trinity River Campus Weatherford College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Metroplex Regional Totals Northwest Region Midwestern State University University Subtotal Cisco College Ranger College TSTC West Texas Campus Vernon College Western Texas College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal
Actual 2005 31,947 0 0 100,705
Actual 2010 36,067 2,084 0 121,882
Act/Prelim 2014 36,171 2,583 153 134,950
2015 36,485 2,597 203 137,259
18,221 9,725 4,300 9,452 6,629 6,140 8,623 13,552 3,715 6,359
26,501 10,847 5,924 10,852 9,823 7,975 10,904 16,858 5,034 9,982
28,091 9,763 6,016 12,739 9,474 8,080 9,210 16,155 4,741 9,809
28,999 10,110 5,935 12,774 9,648 8,283 9,264 16,407 4,749 9,917
30,067 10,213 5,971 12,888 9,748 8,386 9,330 16,494 4,776 10,024
33,800 10,713 6,113 13,329 10,138 8,796 9,659 16,962 4,874 10,306
37,067 11,494 6,339 14,062 10,668 9,385 10,285 17,993 4,980 10,486
6,967 12,372 7,356 9,885 8,975 0 4,437 136,708 237,413
9,402 15,899 12,032 11,690 13,911 4,519 5,651 187,804 309,686
10,114 12,103 8,849 8,540 11,290 16,943 5,610 187,527 322,477
10,252 12,226 8,840 8,617 11,276 17,286 5,787 190,369 327,629
10,482 12,359 8,955 8,760 11,447 17,567 5,885 193,350 332,736
11,362 12,909 9,425 9,336 12,130 18,719 6,154 204,726 352,737
12,085 13,500 9,939 9,957 12,838 19,948 6,435 217,461 376,245
6,182 6,182
6,133 6,133
5,874 5,874
6,316 6,316
6,385 6,385
6,575 6,575
6,842 6,842
3,494 758 1,660 2,784 1,756 10,452
4,745 1,588 1,320 3,167 2,307 13,127
3,564 2,014 1,491 2,989 2,069 12,127
3,647 2,002 1,510 2,985 2,072 12,216
3,663 2,017 1,516 2,979 2,077 12,252
3,725 2,083 1,542 2,993 2,112 12,455
3,906 2,150 1,557 3,028 2,166 12,807
8
Total Projections 2016 2020 37,011 39,110 2,627 2,755 253 453 139,386 148,011
2025 41,570 2,938 503 158,784
Northwest Regional Totals
Actual 2005 16,634
Actual 2010 19,260
Act/Prelim 2014 18,001
2015 18,532
South Texas Region Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College Texas A&M International University Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Texas A&M University-Kingsville Texas A&M University-San Antonio The University of Texas at San Antonio The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley University of Houston-Victoria University Subtotal
1,006 4,298 8,355 6,662 0 27,291 21,807 2,491 71,910
1,092 6,853 10,033 6,586 3,120 30,258 25,599 4,095 87,636
1,009 7,554 11,256 8,728 4,521 28,637 29,020 4,407 95,132
1,023 7,692 11,358 8,917 4,650 29,856 29,736 4,639 97,872
1,046 7,882 11,488 9,060 4,717 30,250 30,537 4,719 99,697
1,117 8,433 11,801 9,406 5,007 31,681 33,083 5,053 105,582
1,189 8,744 12,034 9,657 5,333 33,134 34,897 5,452 110,439
0 9,151 8,065 21,555 10,187 3,353 11,889 8,169 16,233 5,067 10,517 4,257 3,980 112,423 184,333
1,312 15,921 8,965 25,269 10,828 4,348 12,236 9,994 27,971 6,235 11,043 5,779 4,290 144,191 231,827
2,096 15,794 8,241 21,358 10,514 3,822 10,265 8,395 30,849 5,572 3,895 5,416 4,125 130,342 225,474
2,093 16,379 8,544 21,625 10,537 3,859 10,273 8,580 31,771 5,720 3,967 5,497 4,168 133,012 230,884
2,109 16,543 8,659 21,880 10,677 3,932 10,384 8,791 32,651 5,767 4,053 5,614 4,209 135,268 234,966
2,167 17,174 9,031 22,834 11,140 3,998 10,552 9,440 35,064 5,878 4,297 5,953 4,290 141,819 247,401
2,193 17,679 9,311 23,670 11,484 4,132 10,632 9,768 35,775 5,853 4,393 6,106 4,380 145,375 255,814
10,523 11,290 21,813
13,969 12,829 26,798
14,452 12,802 27,254
14,531 12,847 27,377
14,589 12,947 27,535
14,773 13,190 27,963
15,147 13,464 28,612
4,756
5,904
5,207
5,259
5,280
5,313
5,422
ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College ACCD - Northwest Vista College ACCD - Palo Alto College ACCD - San Antonio College ACCD - St. Philip's College Coastal Bend College Del Mar College Laredo Community College South Texas College Southwest Texas Junior College Texas Southmost College TSTC Harlingen Campus Victoria College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal South Texas Regional Totals Southeast Texas Region Lamar University Stephen F. Austin State University University Subtotal Angelina College
9
Total Projections 2016 2020 18,637 19,030
2025 19,650
Lamar Institute of Technology Lamar State College-Orange Lamar State College-Port Arthur Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Southeast Texas Regional Totals
Actual 2005 2,711 2,132 2,501 12,100 33,913
Actual 2010 3,243 2,649 2,374 14,170 40,968
Act/Prelim 2014 2,898 2,281 2,075 12,461 39,715
2015 2,853 2,284 2,083 12,478 39,856
Upper East Texas Region Texas A&M University-Texarkana The University of Texas at Tyler University Subtotal
1,549 5,746 7,295
1,803 6,446 8,249
1,812 8,036 9,848
1,868 8,096 9,963
1,882 8,134 10,016
1,923 8,370 10,292
1,952 8,718 10,671
Kilgore College Northeast Texas Community College Panola College Paris Junior College Texarkana College Trinity Valley Community College TSTC Marshall Campus Tyler Junior College Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Upper East Texas Regional Totals
4,815 2,507 1,922 4,264 3,682 5,658 565 9,265 32,678 39,973
6,661 3,226 2,322 6,197 4,003 7,594 949 11,736 42,688 50,937
5,777 3,194 2,563 5,086 4,074 6,755 868 9,830 38,147 47,995
5,885 3,287 2,613 5,411 4,321 7,065 875 9,704 39,161 49,125
5,904 3,324 2,637 5,467 4,345 7,185 881 9,729 39,472 49,488
6,025 3,436 2,704 5,558 4,389 7,508 895 9,945 40,460 50,753
6,238 3,614 2,726 5,659 4,413 7,837 911 10,182 41,579 52,250
Upper Rio Grande Region Sul Ross State University The University of Texas at El Paso University Subtotal
2,010 15,224 17,234
1,918 19,257 21,175
1,895 23,079 24,974
1,940 23,687 25,627
1,969 24,019 25,988
2,028 24,916 26,944
2,082 25,438 27,520
El Paso Community College District Two-Year Colleges Subtotal Upper Rio Grande Regional Totals
17,747 17,747 34,981
24,239 24,239 45,414
27,339 27,339 52,313
28,111 28,111 53,738
28,422 28,422 54,410
29,249 29,249 56,193
29,715 29,715 57,235
6,290
6,140
6,396
6,488
6,542
6,612
6,735
2,272
3,406
5,566
5,544
5,558
5,656
5,848
West Texas Region Angelo State University The University of Texas of the Permian Basin
10
Total Projections 2016 2020 2,861 2,887 2,284 2,284 2,097 2,137 12,522 12,622 40,058 40,585
2025 2,963 2,296 2,238 12,919 41,531
University Subtotal Howard College Midland College Odessa College Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf Two-Year Colleges Subtotal West Texas Regional Totals Public Total
Actual 2005 8,562
Actual 2010 9,546
Act/Prelim 2014 11,962
2015 12,032
Total Projections 2016 2020 12,100 12,268
2,337 4,841 4,568
2,713 5,584 4,788
3,775 5,105 5,021
3,810 5,107 4,998
3,837 5,148 5,058
3,892 5,300 5,365
4,032 5,648 5,812
135 11,881 20,443
125 13,210 22,756
145 14,046 26,008
148 14,063 26,095
150 14,192 26,292
158 14,715 26,983
168 15,659 28,242
862,624
1,051,070
1,320,934
1,344,628
1,365,572
1,434,133
1,511,249
2025 12,583
*Actual enrollment and projections of Tarleton State University, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, and the University of North Texas have been affected by the creation of separate institutions (Texas A&M University-Central Texas, Texas A&M University-San Antonio, and the University of North Texas-Dallas) that were former higher education centers’ whose enrollments were included with the parent institutions’ counts. The University of Texas at Brownsville and The University of Texas-Pan American were combined into The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.
11
Table 4 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts—Public Universities
Angelo State University Lamar University Midwestern State University Prairie View A&M University Sam Houston State University Stephen F. Austin State University Sul Ross State University Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College Tarleton State University Texas A&M International University Texas A&M University Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University-Central Texas Texas A&M University-Commerce Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Texas A&M University-Kingsville Texas A&M University-San Antonio Texas A&M University-Texarkana Texas Southern University Texas State University - San Marcos Texas Tech University Texas Woman's University The University of Texas at Arlington The University of Texas at Austin The University of Texas at Dallas The University of Texas at El Paso The University of Texas at San Antonio The University of Texas at Tyler The University of Texas of the Permian Basin The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley University of Houston
Actual 2005
Actual 2010
Act/Prel 2014
6,140 10,523 6,182 7,912 15,308 11,290 1,918
6,860 13,969 6,133 8,781 17,236 12,829 2,047
6,396 14,452 5,874 8,343 19,573 12,802 1,895
6,488 14,531 6,316 8,434 19,849 12,847 1,940
6,542 14,589 6,385 8,526 20,032 12,947 1,969
6,612 14,773 6,575 9,003 20,505 13,190 2,028
6,735 15,147 6,842 9,507 21,200 13,464 2,082
1,006 9,140 4,298 44,578 1,661 0 8,677 8,355 6,662 0 1,549 11,478 27,129 27,940 11,326 25,216 49,233 14,399 19,257 27,291 5,746
1,092 9,340 6,853 49,129 1,867 2,317 10,280 10,033 6,586 3,120 1,803 9,557 32,572 31,587 14,008 32,975 51,195 17,128 22,051 30,258 6,446
1,009 11,681 7,554 56,602 2,305 2,384 11,490 11,256 8,728 4,521 1,812 9,315 36,790 34,853 14,924 34,853 51,341 23,095 23,079 28,637 8,036
1,023 11,706 7,692 59,500 2,233 2,449 12,015 11,358 8,917 4,650 1,868 9,266 36,905 34,985 15,330 35,367 52,609 23,557 23,687 29,856 8,096
1,046 11,803 7,882 62,500 2,243 2,484 12,194 11,488 9,060 4,717 1,882 9,321 37,339 35,272 15,563 35,842 53,244 24,092 24,019 30,250 8,134
1,117 12,082 8,433 66,875 2,254 2,620 12,817 11,801 9,406 5,007 1,923 9,534 38,830 36,379 16,536 37,882 55,608 26,377 24,916 31,681 8,370
1,189 12,289 8,744 70,000 2,268 2,777 13,479 12,034 9,657 5,333 1,952 9,811 40,604 37,810 17,782 40,752 58,956 29,472 25,438 33,134 8,718
3,406 21,807 34,582
4,063 25,599 38,752
5,566 29,020 40,914
5,544 29,736 40,898
5,558 30,537 41,481
5,656 33,083 43,654
5,848 34,897 47,059
12
2015
Total Projections 2015 2020
2025
University of Houston-Clear Lake University of Houston-Downtown University of Houston-Victoria University of North Texas University of North Texas at Dallas University of North Texas at Dallas Law West Texas A&M University University Statewide Totals
Actual 2005 7,826 11,433 2,491 31,947 0 0 7,293
Actual 2010 8,099 12,900 4,095 36,067 2,084 0 7,839
Act/Prel 2014 8,668 14,438 4,407 36,171 2,583 153 8,970
484,999
557,550
604,490
2015 8,732 14,869 4,639 36,485 2,597 203 9,087 616,262
Total Projections 2015 2020 8,779 9,083 15,312 17,218 4,719 5,053 37,011 39,110 2,627 2,755 253 453 9,197 9,370 626,838
658,569
2025 9,583 19,938 5,452 41,570 2,938 503 9,660 694,624
*Actual enrollment and projections of Tarleton State University, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, and the University of North Texas have been affected by the creation of separate institutions (Texas A&M University-Central Texas, Texas A&M University-San Antonio, and the University of North Texas-Dallas) that were former higher education centers’ whose enrollments were included with the parent institutions’ counts. The University of Texas at Brownsville and The University of Texas-Pan American were combined into The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.
13
Table 5 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment—Public Universities Angelo State University Lamar University Midwestern State University Prairie View A&M University Sam Houston State University Stephen F. Austin State University Sul Ross State University Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College Tarleton State University Texas A&M International University Texas A&M University Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University-Central Texas Texas A&M University-Commerce Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Texas A&M University-Kingsville Texas A&M University-San Antonio Texas A&M University-Texarkana Texas Southern University Texas State University - San Marcos Texas Tech University Texas Woman's University The University of Texas at Arlington The University of Texas at Austin The University of Texas at Dallas The University of Texas at El Paso The University of Texas at San Antonio The University of Texas at Tyler The University of Texas of the Permian Basin The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley University of Houston University of Houston-Clear Lake University of Houston-Downtown
2005-2010 Number Percent 720 11.7% 3,446 32.7% (49) -0.8% 869 11.0% 1,928 12.6% 1,539 13.6% 129 6.7%
2010-2015 Number Percent (372) -5.4% 562 4.0% 183 3.0% (347) -4.0% 2,613 15.2% 18 0.1% (107) -5.2%
2015-2020 Number Percent 123 1.9% 243 1.7% 259 4.1% 569 6.7% 656 3.3% 343 2.7% 88 4.5%
2020-2025 Number Percent 123 1.9% 374 2.5% 267 4.1% 504 5.6% 695 3.4% 274 2.1% 54 2.7%
86 200 2,555 4,551 206 2,317 1,603 1,678 (76) 3,120 254 (1,921) 5,443 3,647 2,682 7,759 1,962 2,729 2,794 2,967 700
8.5% 2.2% 59.4% 10.2% 12.4% N/A 18.5% 20.1% -1.1% N/A 16.4% -16.7% 20.1% 13.1% 23.7% 30.8% 4.0% 19.0% 14.5% 10.9% 12.2%
(69) 2,366 839 10,371 366 132 1,735 1,325 2,331 1,530 65 (291) 4,333 3,398 1,322 2,392 1,414 6,429 1,636 (402) 1,650
-6.3% 25.3% 12.2% 21.1% 19.6% 5.7% 16.9% 13.2% 35.4% 49.0% 3.6% -3.0% 13.3% 10.8% 9.4% 7.3% 2.8% 37.5% 7.4% -1.3% 25.6%
94 376 740 7,375 21 171 802 443 489 357 55 268 1,925 1,394 1,206 2,515 2,999 2,820 1,229 1,826 274
9.2% 3.2% 9.6% 12.4% 0.9% 7.0% 6.7% 3.9% 5.5% 7.7% 3.0% 2.9% 5.2% 4.0% 7.9% 7.1% 5.7% 12.0% 5.2% 6.1% 3.4%
72 207 311 3,125 13 157 662 234 251 325 29 276 1,774 1,431 1,246 2,870 3,348 3,095 522 1,453 349
6.4% 1.7% 3.7% 4.7% 0.6% 6.0% 5.2% 2.0% 2.7% 6.5% 1.5% 2.9% 4.6% 3.9% 7.5% 7.6% 6.0% 11.7% 2.1% 4.6% 4.2%
657 1,696 4,170 273 1,467
19.3% 9.9% 12.1% 3.5% 12.8%
1,481 4,137 2,146 633 1,969
36.5% 16.2% 5.5% 7.8% 15.3%
112 3,347 2,756 351 2,349
2.0% 11.3% 6.7% 4.0% 15.8%
192 1,814 3,405 501 2,720
3.4% 5.5% 7.8% 5.5% 15.8%
14
University of Houston-Victoria University of North Texas University of North Texas at Dallas University of North Texas at Dallas Law West Texas A&M University University Statewide Totals
2005-2010 Number Percent 1,604 64.4% 4,120 12.9% 2,084 N/A 546
7.5%
72,551
15.0%
2010-2015 Number Percent 544 13.3% 418 1.2% 513 24.6% 203 NA 1,248 15.9% 58,712
10.5%
2015-2020 Number Percent 414 8.9% 2,624 7.2% 158 6.1% 250 123.2% 283 3.1% 42,306
6.9%
2020-2025 Number Percent 398 7.9% 2,460 6.3% 183 6.7% 50 11.0% 290 3.1% 36,055
5.5%
*Actual enrollment and projections of Tarleton State University, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, and the University of North Texas have been affected by the creation of separate institutions (Texas A&M University-Central Texas, Texas A&M University-San Antonio, and the University of North Texas-Dallas) that were former higher education centers’ whose enrollments were included with the parent institutions’ counts. The University of Texas at Brownsville and The University of Texas-Pan American were combined into The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.
15
Table 6 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecast—Public Two-Year Colleges
ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College ACCD - Northwest Vista College ACCD - Palo Alto College ACCD - San Antonio College ACCD - St. Philip's College Alvin Community College Amarillo College Angelina College Austin Community College Blinn College Brazosport College Central Texas College District Cisco College Clarendon College Coastal Bend College College of the Mainland Community College District Collin County Community College District DCCCD - Brookhaven College DCCCD - Cedar Valley College DCCCD - Eastfield College DCCCD - El Centro College DCCCD - Mountain View College DCCCD - North Lake College DCCCD - Richland College Del Mar College El Paso Community College District Frank Phillips College Galveston College Grayson County College Hill College
Actual 2005 0 9,151 8,065 21,555 10,187 3,828 10,391 4,756 30,499 14,351 3,604 8,704 3,494 1,116 3,353
Actual 2010 1,312 15,921 8,965 25,269 10,828 5,721 11,540 5,904 41,582 17,755 4,174 12,737 4,745 1,583 4,348
Act/Prel 2014 2,096 15,794 8,241 21,358 10,514 4,914 10,245 5,207 37,917 18,767 4,155 10,657 3,564 1,211 3,822
3,992 18,221 9,725 4,300 9,452 6,629 6,140 8,623 13,552 11,889 24,239 1,207 2,215 3,715 3,084
4,352 26,501 10,847 5,924 10,852 9,823 7,975 10,904 16,858 12,236 27,337 1,208 2,318 5,034 4,429
3,863 28,091 9,763 6,016 12,739 9,474 8,080 9,210 16,155 10,265 27,339 1,345 2,048 4,741 4,026
16
2015 2,093 16,379 8,544 21,625 10,537 5,007 10,373 5,259 38,460 19,330 4,225 10,985 3,647 1,204 3,859
Total Projections 2016 2020 2,109 2,167 16,543 17,174 8,659 9,031 21,880 22,834 10,677 11,140 5,111 5,452 10,475 10,944 5,280 5,313 39,178 42,037 19,910 22,409 4,314 4,609 11,112 11,687 3,663 3,725 1,223 1,254 3,932 3,998
2025 2,193 17,679 9,311 23,670 11,484 5,871 11,560 5,422 45,139 25,978 5,020 12,596 3,906 1,306 4,132
3,920 28,999 10,110 5,935 12,774 9,648 8,283 9,264 16,407 10,273 28,111 1,348 2,074 4,749 4,049
3,949 30,067 10,213 5,971 12,888 9,748 8,386 9,330 16,494 10,384 28,422 1,354 2,095 4,776 4,104
4,106 37,067 11,494 6,339 14,062 10,668 9,385 10,285 17,993 10,632 29,715 1,398 2,239 4,980 4,346
4,023 33,800 10,713 6,113 13,329 10,138 8,796 9,659 16,962 10,552 29,249 1,390 2,156 4,874 4,252
Houston Community College System Howard College Kilgore College Lamar Institute of Technology Lamar State College-Orange Lamar State College-Port Arthur Laredo Community College Lee College Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College Lone Star College System Kingwood College Lone Star College System Montgomery College Lone Star College System North Harris College Lone Star College System Tomball College Lone Star College System University Park McLennan Community College Midland College Navarro College North Central Texas Community College District Northeast Texas Community College Odessa College Panola College Paris Junior College Ranger College San Jacinto College Central Campus San Jacinto College North Campus San Jacinto College South Campus South Plains College South Texas College Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf Southwest Texas Junior College
Actual 2005 35,595 2,713 4,815 2,711 2,132 2,501 8,169 4,576 9,799
Actual 2010 49,717 4,582 6,661 3,243 2,649 2,374 9,994 6,719 16,861
Act/Prel 2014 47,476 3,775 5,777 2,898 2,281 2,075 8,395 6,629 18,693
2015 47,698 3,810 5,885 2,853 2,284 2,083 8,580 6,483 19,161
Total Projections 2016 2020 48,418 51,126 3,837 3,892 5,904 6,025 2,861 2,887 2,284 2,284 2,097 2,137 8,791 9,440 6,554 6,755 19,337 19,974
2025 54,711 4,032 6,238 2,963 2,296 2,238 9,768 7,031 21,076
6,837
9,807
11,778
12,180
12,291
12,641
13,171
7,971
11,154
12,031
12,325
12,597
13,519
14,514
10,878 7,600 0 7,638 5,584 6,359
15,213 10,791 0 9,912 6,344 9,982
15,822 7,609 8,076 8,291 5,105 9,809
16,149 7,755 8,508 8,274 5,107 9,917
16,322 7,819 8,574 8,301 5,148 10,024
17,000 8,011 8,794 8,414 5,300 10,306
17,991 8,277 9,237 8,606 5,648 10,486
6,967 2,507 4,788 1,922 4,264 758 12,627 5,529 8,554 9,233 16,233 125 5,067
9,402 3,226 5,211 2,322 6,197 1,588 15,035 6,573 10,497 10,153 27,971 103 6,235
10,114 3,194 5,021 2,563 5,086 2,014 13,764 7,509 10,892 9,651 30,849 145 5,572
10,252 3,287 4,998 2,613 5,411 2,002 13,889 7,590 10,853 9,833 31,771 148 5,720
10,482 3,324 5,058 2,637 5,467 2,017 14,027 7,679 10,991 9,910 32,651 150 5,767
11,362 3,436 5,365 2,704 5,558 2,083 14,633 8,054 11,494 10,160 35,064 158 5,878
12,085 3,614 5,812 2,726 5,659 2,150 15,608 8,621 12,302 10,524 35,775 168 5,853
17
TCCD - Northeast Campus TCCD - Northwest Campus TCCD - South Campus TCCD - Southeast Campus TCCD - Trinity River Campus Temple College Texarkana College Texas Southmost College Trinity Valley Community College TSTC Harlingen Campus TSTC Marshall Campus TSTC Waco Campus TSTC West Texas Campus Tyler Junior College Vernon College Victoria College Weatherford College Western Texas College Wharton County Junior College Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals
Actual 2005 12,372 7,356 9,885 8,975 0 3,897 3,682 10,517 5,658 4,257 565 4,528 1,660 9,265 2,784 3,980 4,437 1,756 6,008
Actual 2010 15,899 12,032 11,690 13,911 4,519 5,966 4,003 11,043 7,594 5,779 949 4,976 1,320 11,736 3,167 4,290 5,651 2,307 6,922
Act/Prel 2014 12,103 8,849 8,540 11,290 16,943 5,784 4,074 3,895 6,755 5,416 868 4,082 1,491 9,830 2,989 4,125 5,610 2,069 7,220
566,071
743,252
716,444
18
2015 12,226 8,840 8,617 11,276 17,286 5,858 4,321 3,967 7,065 5,497 875 4,192 1,510 9,704 2,985 4,168 5,787 2,072 7,233 728,366
Total Projections 2016 2020 12,359 12,909 8,955 9,425 8,760 9,336 11,447 12,130 17,567 18,719 5,939 6,306 4,345 4,389 4,053 4,297 7,185 7,508 5,614 5,953 881 895 4,231 4,338 1,516 1,542 9,729 9,945 2,979 2,993 4,209 4,290 5,885 6,154 2,077 2,112 7,444 8,086 738,735
775,565
2025 13,500 9,939 9,957 12,838 19,948 6,842 4,413 4,393 7,837 6,106 911 4,444 1,557 10,182 3,028 4,380 6,435 2,166 8,596 816,625
Table 7 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment—Public Two-Year Colleges
ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College ACCD - Northwest Vista College ACCD - Palo Alto College ACCD - San Antonio College ACCD - St. Philip's College Alvin Community College Amarillo College Angelina College Austin Community College Blinn College Brazosport College Central Texas College District Cisco College Clarendon College Coastal Bend College College of the Mainland Community College District Collin County Community College District DCCCD - Brookhaven College DCCCD - Cedar Valley College DCCCD - Eastfield College DCCCD - El Centro College DCCCD - Mountain View College DCCCD - North Lake College DCCCD - Richland College Del Mar College El Paso Community College District Frank Phillips College Galveston College Grayson County College Hill College
2005-2010 Number Percent 1,312 N/A 6,770 74.0% 900 11.2% 3,714 17.2% 641 6.3% 1,893 49.5% 1,149 11.1% 1,148 24.1% 11,083 36.3% 3,404 23.7% 570 15.8% 4,033 46.3% 1,251 35.8% 467 41.8% 995 29.7% 360 8,280 1,122 1,624 1,400 3,194 1,835 2,281 3,306 347 3,098 1 103 1,319 1,345
9.0% 45.4% 11.5% 37.8% 14.8% 48.2% 29.9% 26.5% 24.4% 2.9% 12.8% 0.1% 4.7% 35.5% 43.6%
19
2010-2015 Number Percent 781 59.5% 458 2.9% (421) -4.7% (3,644) -14.4% (291) -2.7% (714) -12.5% (1,167) -10.1% (645) -10.9% (3,122) -7.5% 1,575 8.9% 51 1.2% (1,752) -13.8% (1,098) -23.1% (379) -23.9% (489) -11.2% (432) 2,498 (737) 11 1,922 (175) 308 (1,640) (451) (1,963) 774 140 (244) (285) (380)
-9.9% 9.4% -6.8% 0.2% 17.7% -1.8% 3.9% -15.0% -2.7% -16.0% 2.8% 11.6% -10.5% -5.7% -8.6%
2015-2020 Number Percent 75 3.6% 796 4.9% 488 5.7% 1,209 5.6% 603 5.7% 445 8.9% 571 5.5% 54 1.0% 3,577 9.3% 3,079 15.9% 384 9.1% 702 6.4% 78 2.1% 50 4.2% 139 3.6% 103 4,801 603 177 555 490 513 395 555 279 1,138 42 82 125 203
2.6% 16.6% 6.0% 3.0% 4.3% 5.1% 6.2% 4.3% 3.4% 2.7% 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 2.6% 5.0%
2020-2025 Number Percent 26 1.2% 505 2.9% 279 3.1% 836 3.7% 344 3.1% 420 7.7% 615 5.6% 109 2.1% 3,102 7.4% 3,569 15.9% 411 8.9% 909 7.8% 181 4.9% 52 4.1% 134 3.4% 82 3,266 781 227 733 529 589 626 1,031 80 467 8 83 106 94
2.0% 9.7% 7.3% 3.7% 5.5% 5.2% 6.7% 6.5% 6.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.6% 3.8% 2.2% 2.2%
2005-2010 Number Percent Houston Community College System 14,122 39.7% Howard College 1,869 68.9% Kilgore College 1,846 38.3% Lamar Institute of Technology 532 19.6% Lamar State College-Orange 517 24.2% Lamar State College-Port Arthur (127) -5.1% Laredo Community College 1,825 22.3% Lee College 2,143 46.8% Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 7,062 72.1% Lone Star College System Kingwood College 2,970 43.4% Lone Star College System Montgomery College 3,183 39.9% Lone Star College System North Harris College 4,335 39.9% Lone Star College System Tomball College 3,191 42.0% Lone Star College System University Park 0 N/A McLennan Community College 2,274 29.8% Midland College 760 13.6% Navarro College 3,623 57.0% North Central Texas Community College District 2,435 35.0% Northeast Texas Community College 719 28.7% Odessa College 423 8.8% Panola College 400 20.8% Paris Junior College 1,933 45.3% Ranger College 830 109.5% San Jacinto College Central Campus 2,408 19.1% San Jacinto College North Campus 1,044 18.9% San Jacinto College South Campus 1,943 22.7% South Plains College 920 10.0% South Texas College 11,738 72.3% Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf (22) -17.6% Southwest Texas Junior College 1,168 23.1% TCCD - Northeast Campus 3,527 28.5% TCCD - Northwest Campus 4,676 63.6% TCCD - South Campus 1,805 18.3% TCCD - Southeast Campus 4,936 55.0%
20
2010-2015 Number Percent (2,019) -4.1% (772) -16.8% (776) -11.6% (390) -12.0% (365) -13.8% (291) -12.3% (1,414) -14.1% (236) -3.5% 2,300 13.6% 2,373 24.2% 1,171 10.5% 936 6.1% (3,036) -28.1% 8,508 NA (1,638) -16.5% (1,237) -19.5% (65) -0.7% 850 9.0% 61 1.9% (213) -4.1% 291 12.5% (786) -12.7% 414 26.1% (1,146) -7.6% 1,017 15.5% 356 3.4% (320) -3.1% 3,800 13.6% 45 43.7% (515) -8.3% (3,673) -23.1% (3,192) -26.5% (3,073) -26.3% (2,635) -18.9%
2015-2020 Number Percent 3,429 7.2% 82 2.1% 140 2.4% 34 1.2% 1 0.0% 55 2.6% 860 10.0% 272 4.2% 814 4.2% 461 3.8% 1,195 9.7% 851 5.3% 257 3.3% 285 3.4% 140 1.7% 194 3.8% 390 3.9% 1,111 10.8% 149 4.5% 367 7.3% 91 3.5% 148 2.7% 81 4.1% 744 5.4% 463 6.1% 641 5.9% 327 3.3% 3,292 10.4% 10 6.9% 158 2.8% 683 5.6% 585 6.6% 719 8.3% 854 7.6%
2020-2025 Number Percent 3,585 7.0% 140 3.6% 212 3.5% 76 2.6% 12 0.5% 101 4.7% 328 3.5% 276 4.1% 1,101 5.5% 531 4.2% 995 7.4% 991 5.8% 266 3.3% 443 5.0% 192 2.3% 347 6.6% 180 1.7% 723 6.4% 178 5.2% 447 8.3% 22 0.8% 100 1.8% 67 3.2% 975 6.7% 567 7.0% 808 7.0% 364 3.6% 711 2.0% 10 6.0% (25) -0.4% 590 4.6% 514 5.5% 621 6.6% 708 5.8%
TCCD - Trinity River Campus Temple College Texarkana College Texas Southmost College Trinity Valley Community College TSTC Harlingen Campus TSTC Marshall Campus TSTC Waco Campus TSTC West Texas Campus Tyler Junior College Vernon College Victoria College Weatherford College Western Texas College Wharton County Junior College Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals
2005-2010 Number Percent 4,519 N/A 2,069 53.1% 321 8.7% 526 5.0% 1,936 34.2% 1,522 35.8% 384 68.0% 448 9.9% (340) -20.5% 2,471 26.7% 383 13.8% 310 7.8% 1,214 27.4% 551 31.4% 914 15.2% 177,181
31.3%
21
2010-2015 Number Percent 12,767 282.5% (108) -1.8% 318 7.9% (7,076) -64.1% (529) -7.0% (282) -4.9% (74) -7.8% (784) -15.8% 190 14.4% (2,032) -17.3% (182) -5.7% (122) -2.8% 136 2.4% (235) -10.2% 311 4.5% (14,886)
-2.0%
2015-2020 Number Percent 1,433 8.3% 448 7.6% 68 1.6% 330 8.3% 443 6.3% 456 8.3% 20 2.3% 147 3.5% 32 2.1% 241 2.5% 8 0.3% 122 2.9% 367 6.3% 40 1.9% 853 11.8% 47,198
6.5%
2020-2025 Number Percent 1,229 6.6% 537 8.5% 24 0.5% 96 2.2% 329 4.4% 153 2.6% 16 1.8% 105 2.4% 16 1.0% 237 2.4% 35 1.2% 90 2.1% 281 4.6% 55 2.6% 510 6.3% 41,060
5.3%
Figure 3 Enrollment Forecast Development Process
Institutions’ 2009-2013 Historical Enrollment by county/age/ ethnicity
3 alternative instate enrollment rates by institution/ county/age/ ethnicity
Texas pop. by county/age/ethnicity 2014 2015 thru 43 2020 2025 2025
3 in-state forecasts for 2014 for each institution
Fall 2014 Preliminary/ Actual in-state enrollment by institution
Historical ratio between in-state and non-resident enrollment by institution
Compare 3 forecasts with 2014 preliminary and select “best fit” rate for each institution
Draft total enrollment forecast by institution
Use “best fit” rate & pop. to forecast 2014, thru 2020, 2025, and 2025 in-state enrollment at institution
22
Adjust in-state Forecast by Institution for 2014, 2015 thru 2020, 2025, and 2025
Adjustment for institutions’ policies and local conditions
Enrollment Forecast
This document is available on the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Website: http://www.thecb.state.tx.us
For more information contact: Susan E. Brown, Assistant Commissioner Strategic Planning and Funding 512-427-6153
[email protected]