Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Energy Security Indicators
Anca Costescu Badea European Commission Joint Research Center Institute for Energy Energy Security Unit http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
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Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
2
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
3
Introduction Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Energy security = an uninterruptible supply of energy, in terms of quantities required to meet demand at affordable prices Europe’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises, World Energy Council 2008
The 4 A’s Energy Resource Availability Conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources, renewable resources (wind, solar, biofuels)
Accessibility Barriers Barriers (geopolitical, financial and human constraints, fiscal regimes, and need for major infrastructure and technology deployment) to explore and develop available resources.
Environmental Acceptability environmental and safety concerns
Investment Cost Affordability consumers being able to afford energy services, capital and operating cost structures for developing various energy sources
Multidimensional concept
Source : APERC study (2007)
Introduction Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Strategies for Enhancing Energy Security • Diversification related strategies: – increasing the number of fuels and technologies that are in the energy mix – increasing the number of suppliers for each fuel (especially if imported) – developing storage capacity for different fuels (e.g., strategic reserves)
• Other strategies: – increasing energy efficiency, conservation, use endogenous energy sources Source : Energy Security Quarterly (2008)
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Introduction Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Europe’s energy policies objectives Competitiveness
European Energy Policy Security of supply
Sustainability owa
Objectives that might be conflictual
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Indicators in the energy field developed at different (energy) agencies – Eurostat : 8 groups ~30 – European Environment Agency : monitoring the integration of environmental considerations in the energy sector set of “energy and environment indicators” >30 – IAEA, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, IEA, Eurostat, EEA 2005 : Energy indicators for sustainable development Environmental (10) Economic (16) Social (4)
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
• How to measure security of supply? • Everybody talks about security of supply, but which are the attempts to put figures on this concept?
• Specific indicators – Simple – Composite (aggregated) – Short term energy security – Long term energy security – Demand side – Supply side
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Most popular simple indicators
Energy intensity = TPES / GDP
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Most popular simple indicators
Energy dependency for different energy sources (oil, gas,…) = import / gross inland energy [%]
Source : Eurostat
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Most popular simple indicators
Reserves-to-Production Ratios (oil, gas,…) = proven reserves / primary production [y] Source: World Resources Institute, 2005.
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Most popular simple indicators Energy price (oil price)
supply in relation to demand measure of economic impacts reflects depletion of energy resources problems: speculation, short-term shortages,…
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Most popular simple indicators Sectoral indicators share of biofuels in road transport = biofuel consumption / petrol & diesel consumption [%] The Renewable Energy Directive set a 10 % minimum target of renewable energy (primarily biofuels) in the transport sector, for all Member States individually, by 2020. Source : Eurostat
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators and policy making Proposal for a Regulation on Security of Gas Supply
EU indigenous; 7785401; 40,4%
Russia; 4685365; 24,3%
80% 70% 60% Norway; 3061751; 15,9%
Other; 320733; 1,7% Egypt; 221305; 1,1%
Qatar; Libya; 275496; 1,4% 383615; 2,0%
Algeria; 1943976; 10,1%
Nigeria; 588317; 3,1%
Source of natural gas, in TJ (2007)
Russia Germany Algeria Norway Others 11%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Import sources of new EU-8 MS Source: DG TREN
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators and policy making Gas Import dependency (%) 120 100 80 60 40 20
-40 -60 -80 -100 -120
1990 2007
27 EU
U K
SE
FI
SK
SI
R O
PT
PL
AT
N L
M T
H U
LU
LV
LT
C Y
IT
FR
ES
EL
IE
EE
D E
D K
C Z
BG
-20
BE
0
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Simple indicators and policy making % of missing gas supply > 75 % 50 - 75 % 25 – 50 % < 25% 0% Ukraine
Impact of Ukrainian gas crisis on individual countries
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Indicators
Simple indicators and policy making Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Main element of proposed Regulation : infrastructure standards, N-1 indicator IPm + Pm + Sm + LNGm − I m − Tout N − 1[%] = ×100 ≥ 100% Dmax
Definition There is sufficient capacity to supply total gas demand if the largest infrastructure fails (+ time dimension) IPm import pipelines Pm production Sm storage withdrawal LNGm LNG facility Im largest gas infrastructure Tout transmission outflow Dmax demand max
Advantages tangible definition of SoS takes into account situation in individual MS & compares their security of supply situation element of MS responsibility, basis for further solidarity calculated with available information, and for any area size (MS, region, EU) flexibility for MS : storage, LNG, backup import capacity, extra production, reverse flows, demand management (full subsidiarity applies)
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators and policy making 300%
Financial instruments available
250%
• European Energy Programme for
200%
N-1
Recovery (EEPR Regulation)
150%
– help DK, SE, HU, RO, BG, SI to cope with N-1, and increase N-1 in other MS – Reverse flows projects will help BG, SI – Nabucco
100%
50%
0% DK GR DE BE
SK AT
PL
NL
LV CZ EE ES
IT
Normal
HU FR UK RO SE
LU PT BG
SI
EERP
LT
IE
FI
EU
• Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan – help FI, LT to cope N-1
N-1 indicator by MS and EU
• Ireland – projects to cope with N-1
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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More complex indicators : diversity • Meaning : putting eggs in different baskets • Use : energy (fuel) type, geographical source, suppliers hedge against supply risks & against market power
1.4
(1 /3 , l o g (3 ))
1.2
• Shannon-Wiener Index
n
1
SWI = −∑ pi log( pi ) i =1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Maximum (=log(n)) when all the shares are equal (1/n)
0
0 .1
0 .2
0.3
0 .4
0 .5
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8
0.9
1
0.5
0 .6
0 .7
0.8
0 .9
1
1
0.9
• Herfindahl-Hirschman index
n
0.8
HHI = ∑ p
2 i
i =1
Minimum (=1/n) when all the shares are equal (1/n)
0.7
0.6
0.5
(1 /3 , 1 /3 )
0.4
0
0.1
0 .2
0 .3
0.4
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
More complex indicators : diversity problem 1
• diversity indices : how many options do we have? • IEA 1991 : 6 options – coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro/geothermal, other
• IEA 2002 : 11 options
– coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, tide/wave/ocean, wind, combustion renewables and waste, other
• diversity indices might yield significant different results depending on the partitioning of options sensitivity to linguistic conventions
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
More complex indicators : diversity problem 2 – Variety (number of categories) SWI, HHI – Balance (their spread) – Disparity (degree to which categories are different) – difficult to measure – Ex:
Energy mix 1: coal 70%, gas 5%, wind 25% Energy mix 2: coal 70%, gas 25%, wind 5% Previous diversity indices cannot discriminate: SWI1=SWI2, HHI1=HHI2 Wind is more disparate than coal & gas, but how to measure?
Source: Stirling, 2010
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
More complex indicators : diversity problem 2
introduction of a disparity measure
Source : Stirling, 2010
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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(even) More complex indicators : diversity correction factor
n
−∑ ci pi log( pi )
share of primary energy source i
i =1 1. basic indicator : correction factor =1 2. energy net import dependency correction factor = f(share of net import in PES of source i, share of imports of source i from region j in total import) 3. import dependency and long-term socio-political stability correction factor = same as 2 + extent of political stability in region j (0 : unstable; 1 : stable) 4. import dependency, long-term socio-political stability and resource depletion correction factor = same as 3 + proven reserve-to-production ratio for source i in region j Source : Jansen, 2004
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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(even) More complex indicators : diversity n
– – – –
separate indices for the main fuels (oil, gas, coal) energy import diversification political stability of the supplying country domestic energy production of the importing region
−∑ ci pi log( pi ) i =1
Gas index
Source : Neumann, 2003
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
(even) More complex indicators : diversity – – – – –
separate indices for the main fuels (oil, gas, coal) energy import diversification political risks of the supplying country risk associated with energy transit economic impact of a supply disruption for each energy type
Contribution to EU Risk Exposure index : relative impact of each Member State on the aggregate EU risk (short term)
Source : Le Coq, 2009
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n 2 c p ∑i i i =1
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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(even) More complex indicators : diversity arguments against supply security as an import problem for oil, gas, coal
• oil:not linked to the diversity of import sources because it is a global, fully integrated market, which might depend on one or a few highly unstable regions
• gas: US imports mainly from Canada lack of diversity; domestic US gas production in the Gulf of Mexico exposed to risk of disruptions from hurricanes not reflected in the index
• coal: if a country would produce 100% of its domestic coal consumption
higher degree of energy security but : the biggest energy supply disruption in UK’s history was a result of the coal miners’ strike in the ’80s
Source : Pierre Noel
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite (aggregated) indicators – What is a composite indicator ? A composite indicator is formed when individual indicators are compiled into a single index, on the basis of an underlying model of the multi-dimensional concept that is being measured.* – Why composite indicators ? − instruments for simple comparisons of countries (regions, universities, economic sectors…) − monitor their performances and the time trends − convey policy messages Source: Nardo, 2008
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicators Supply/demand (SD) index (Scheepers et al. 2007) – based on expert judgement on all possible relevant aspects of SOS (demand, supply, conversion, transport) – attempt to cover the whole energy spectrum in the medium and long run – subjective weights – covers the period 2005 – 2020 (using Primes outputs)
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicators
Source : Jansen, 2010
S/D Index, EU-27 and Member States, 2005, PRIMES based
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicators IEA energy security indices (Lefevre 2009) • physical unavailability • price risk from supply market concentration Generic causal mechanisms of energy insecurity
Stage I Event
Stage II Impact on sector of supply chain
Stage III Knock-on impacts on other sectors of supply chain
Stage IV Impact on demand sector
Stage V Impact on Welfare
• Purpose : Develop a base methodology to analyse impacts of policy on ES in 2020/30 to help guide policy making
• Use : Project for DG Environment “Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Energy Security” based on energy system modeling
Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicators Willingness to pay (Bollen 2008)
• percentage of GDP a country is willing to pay for decreasing the SOS risks; higher willingness for higher risks – import ratio of a fuel – share of fuel in TPES – energy intensity
• expressed in monetary terms Source: Bollen, 2008
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicators • Oil vulnerability index (Gupta 2008) – based on 7 indicators ratio oil import value to GDP oil consumption per unit of GDP GDP per capita oil share in TPES ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption net oil import dependence, diversification of supply sources, political risks in oilsupplying countries − market liquidity − − − − − −
– weights: PCA increased robustness
• Vulnerability index (Gnansounou, 2008) – based on 5 indicators from economic, environmental & societal fields – weights: subjective choice
– Use: «Europe’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises » World Energy Council 2008
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Indicators Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Assessment of the current use of different indicators in policy making simple indicators : – some are used (import dependence, oil price, non carbon, energy or oil intensity) – some have a qualitative or limited used – some are not used (diversity indices, market concentration, meanvariance portfolio
aggregated indicators : – not used Source: Kruyt, 2009
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
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Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators
Gas case 9 indicator groups 1. Macro-economic indicators (energy intensity, consumption/capita, import bill 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
indicator,…) Energy balance indicators (production, imports, exports, transformation, conversion loss, distribution loss, energy industry use, final consumption …) Reserves indicators (Indigenous production, proven gas reserves) Sectoral indicators (TFC industry, households, services, power generation, …) Diversification indicators (sources, suppliers, sectorial, routes, diversification electr. production) Import risk indicator (import dependency, supplier shares, country risks,…) Infrastructure indicators (storage, LNG terminal, interconnection pipelines,…) Gas crisis indicators (Storage flexibility, LNG flexibility, fuel switching flexibility,…) Gas flow model indicators (Successful strategies, gas supply margin, pipeline use)
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Simple indicators
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Assessment disruption "Consumption lost" indicators "Imports lost" indicators "Supply lost" indicators
Gas crisis indicators
SUPPLY SIDE 1. First phase measures 1.1. Increase storage withdrawal 1.2. Increase LNG send-out capacity 1.3. Increase production 2. Second phase measures 2.1. Route flexibility 2.2. Alternative import flexibility 2.3. LNG import flexibility 3. Third phase measures
Possible responses MS
DEMAND SIDE 1. Fuel switching 2. Interruptible demand
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators 60.00
Crisis situation
100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
86.1%
mcm/day
50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 GR BG SK HU CZ PL AUT SI
IT
FR RO DEU Gas disrupted (mcm/day) % of actual consumption
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators First phase measures Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal
Immediately
Action 1.2: Increase LNG send-out Action 1.3: Increase production
Second phase measures Action 2.1: Route flexibility Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility
1-3 days
Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures
If 1st & 2nd
phase are not enough
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators
Action 1.1: Storage use Jan 7: 725 mcm/day AT
BE
BG
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
400
FR
GR
300
HU
IE
200
IT
LT
100
LV
LU
0
NL
PL
800 700 600
Jan 1: 302 mcm/day
mcm/d
500
11/01/2009
10/01/2009
9/01/2009
8/01/2009
7/01/2009
6/01/2009
5/01/2009
4/01/2009
3/01/2009
2/01/2009
1/01/2009
PT Source: EC, DG TREN
RO
SI
SE
SK
UK
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Withdrawal
Simple indicators 160
400,0% 350,0%
120
increase withdrawal
300,0%
100
% disruption
250,0%
80
200,0%
60
150,0%
40
100,0%
86,0% 62,1%
20
27,8%
50,0% 14,7%
0
0,0%
AT
FR
IT
SI
PL
CZ
HU
RO
SK
BG
% disrutpion
mcm/day
140
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Simple indicators
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First phase measures Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal Action 1.2: Increase LNG send-out Action 1.3 Increase production
Second phase supply-side measures Second phase measures Action 2.1: Route flexibility Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators
Action 2.1: Route flexibility
• Ukraine transit was completely blocked (=264 mcm/day). However EU imports from Russia decreased only by 207 mcm/day.
• Some Russian gas could be transported via alternative routes (via Belarus) 400 350 300
200
BE
BG
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LV
LU
NL
PL
PT
RO
SI
SE
SK
UK
CRO
BiH
SRB
FYROM
No route flexibility: Hungary, Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Slovenia Route flexibility: Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland.
150
=> Poland: 82,6% of Russian Imports => Czech Republic: 45% of Russian I.
100 50
/0 9 /0 1 19
17
/0 1
/0 9
/0 9 15
/0 1
/0 9 /0 1 13
11
/0 1
/0 9
/0 9 09
/0 1
/0 9 07
/0 1
/0 9 05
/0 1
/0 9 /0 1 03
/0 1
/0 9
0
01
mcm/d
250
AT
Source: DG TREN
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators 19
58 2,
Action 2.2: Import flexibility
10
126
• Alternative gas was available 5
12 ,87 9
11
Norway (CZ, HU, AUT) Lybia (IT) Algeria (SI) Netherlands
10,13
-
Capacity pipelines in mcm/day
• Import flexibility constrained by interconnection capacity -
SK: 1 pipeline from UA RO: 2 pipelines from UA BG: 98% capacity from RO
• No import flexibility for these countries
301
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators
Action 2.3: LNG imports flexibility (GREECE)
1st phase: increase send-out
2nd phase: rescheduled LNG cargoes
80
mcm/d
60 40 20 0 01/01/09
03/01/09
05/01/09
Gas amount in storage, mcm Gas withdrawal, mcm/d Gas consumption, mcm/d
07/01/09
09/01/09
11/01/09
13/01/09
15/01/09
17/01/09
19/01/09
21/01/09
Source: EC, DG TREN Gas stocks change, mcm/d (-withdrawal, + injection) Maximum withdrawal capacity, mcm/d
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Simple indicators
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First phase measures Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal Action 1.2: Increase send-out capacity Action 1.3 Increase production
Second phase measures Action 2.1: Route flexibility Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures SK on Jan 18: reversal pipeline SK-CZ BG on Jan 19: reversal pipeline BG-GR
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Simple indicators Supply side measures results for the 2009 gas crisis Czech Republic
Hungary
Romania
Greece
Slovak Republic
Bulgaria
Group I
Group II
Group II
Group II
Group III
Group III
1.1. Storage 1.2. LNG sendout
132%
86%
62%
0%
28%
15%
0%
0%
0%
62%
0%
0%
1.3. Production
0%
10%
26%
0%
1%
1%
TOTAL 1st phase
132%
96%
88%
62%
28%
16%
2.1. Route flex
25%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2.2. Import flex
19%
13%
13%
0%
0%
0%
2.3. LNG flex
0%
0%
0%
169%
0%
0%
176%
109%
101%
231%
28%
16%
% of disruption
TOTAL 1st + 2nd
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
51
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicator – How to build composite indicators ? – 10 steps
address only one step: – the weighting method
– ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING (OWA)
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Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator
ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING (OWA) used in web technologies (metasearch engines)
– compensatory aggregation (the previous composite indicators) weights = trade-offs between indicators: a deficit in one can be compensated by a surplus in another (ex: linear aggregation)
– non-compensatory aggregation different goals are equally important find a compromise between those goals increase in economic performance cannot compensate for a worsening of the environment
– embed expert preferences
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator – OWA : how it works
CI =
∑
n
w I i (i) i =1
– weights associated to an ordered position – the user can place most of the weights near the first components to emphasize higher ranks (optimism, at least one) near the last components to emphasize lower ranks (pessimism, for all)
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator
• choice of the simple inditators : availability of consistent data, present and future • do not include geopolitical, sociological, price related,… aspects
• from EU-27 energy outlook from 2005 to 2030 • results with PRIMES model under the baseline scenario (current trends and policies implemented by the end of 2006)
• EXAMPLE of how an energy security composite indicator can be build
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
energy intensity carbon intensity import dependency on coal import dependency on oil import dependency on gas
simple indicators
6. primary production (5 pes) 7. electricity generation capacity
diversity indicators
(11 fuels) 8. energy demand in transport (6 transport modes)
Shannon Wiener index
−1 SWI = log N
N
∑ p log( p ) i
i =1
i
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator energy intensity energy demand in transport
carbon intensity
electricity generation
coal import
primary energy sources
oil import gas import
2005
Belgium Poland
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicator Results
• 7 preferences • optimism pessimism • 6 years (2005, 2010, …, 2030) • aggregation on ranks (1 is the best)
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Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicator
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CY SK LU LT SI IT CZ BG BE AT LV ES EE PT UK RO FR IE DE SE FI PL NL MT HU GR DK 0
optimistic preference
2010 2030 10
20
rank
30
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Composite indicator
60
CY LU MT LT EE PL LV CZ PT SK BE BG FR IT SI NL AT IE RO GR SE HU ES FI DE DK UK 0
risk neutral preference
2010 2030 10
20
rank
30
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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Composite indicator
SI MT CY BG RO PL SK PT LU EE CZ LV GR LT IE NL IT DK AT BE HU FR UK SE FI DE ES 0
pesimistic preference
2010 2030 10
20
rank
30
Outline Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Introduction Indicators Simple indicators Simple indicators and policy making (an example) Diversification indicators Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE Simple indicators Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
62
Conclusions & References Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
63
Constraint: available & reliable data Indicators cover energy security 4 A’s, less the acceptability
Source: Kruyt 2009
Use of composite indicators in policy making: limited Might convey contradictory messages if not carefully used Communication!
Conclusions & References Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
64
1.Europe’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises, World Energy Council 2008 2.APERC study (2007) A Quest for Energy Security in the 21st Century Resources and Constraints, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, www.ieej.or.jp/aperc 3.Energy Indicators For Sustainable Development: Guidelines And Methodologies IAEA, UNDESA, IEA, Eurostat, EEA, Vienna, 2005 4.Energy Security Quarterly, USAID SARI/ENERGY, Contract Number 386-C-00-07-00033-00, 2008 5.A. Stirling, Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios, Energy Policy, 38, 4, 2010, pp. 1622-1634 6.IEA 2001: Toward a sustainable energy future. OECD/IEA, Paris 7.Bert Kruyt, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J.M. de Vries, H. Groenenberg Indicators for energy security, Energy Policy, 37, 6, 2009, pp. 2166-2181 8.Jansen, J.C., Arkel, W.G. van, Boots, M.G., Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security, ECN report, ECN-C--04-007, 2004. 9.A. Neumann, C. von Hirschhausen, Security of (Gas) Supply: Conceptual Issues, Contractual Arrangements, and the Current EU Situation INDES Academic Workshop (May 2003, Amsterdam/Netherlands 10.Le Coq C., Paltseva E. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union Energy Policy, 37(11), 2009, pp. 4474-4481 11.http://www.energypolicyblog.com/author/pierrenoel/ 12.J.C. Jansen, A. J. Seebregts, Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued?, Energy Policy, 38(4), 2010, pp. 1654-1664
Conclusions & References Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
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13.Scheepers M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., Jong, J.J. de, Maters, J.M., EU Standards for Energy Security of
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Belgrade, May 19-21 2010
Thank you for your attention!
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