Energy Perspectives 2014 – Long-term macro and market outlook Geir Axelsen, VP Analysis, Statoil ASA
Energy Perspectives 2014 Our 30-year macro and market outlook
• The global economy – Growth close to historic average (3%) – Two speeds – non-OECD catching up
• Overall energy market outlook – 1.3% annual growth (oil 0.6%, coal: 1.1%)
– Moderate greening of energy mix
• Global oil and gas markets – Oil demand peaks around 2030 – Gas demand increasing (1.4% per year)
• Strong growth in new renewables (8%) – … but CO2 emissions grow until around 2030…
2
A strong trend affecting economics and energy Economic gravity moves (back) to the east, and so does energy demand The global centre of population
Shifting energy demand TPED, bn toe
20
ROW
Other non-OECD Asia
India
China
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
10
0 1990 Source: Reddit, IEA, Statoil (projections)
3
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Growth, efficiency and energy demand Non-OECD driving growth, energy efficiency to improve by almost 40%
10
Economic growth
Growth and energy intensity
Global energy demand
Annual change in GDP (%)
Growth (%) and toe/million 2010-USD
TPED, bn toe
91-00
01-10
21-30
31-40
11-20
8 6
8
GDP TPED Energy intensity (rhs)
4
300
20 18 16
200
International bunkers Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia OECD
14 12
6 2
10 8
4 0 2
100
-2
6
4 2
0 Other nonOECD
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
-4 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
4
0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Long-term forecasts are uncertain Sustainability, politics and technological progress are drivers of uncertainty
Sources: The Economist, blog.enerdynamics.com, guanming.online, Gettyimages.com, Øyvind Hagen (Statoil), Paris Diplomatie, IEA, Greenenergybricks.com, BBC
5
Alternative development paths for key drivers … gives different results in terms of efficiency, energy mix and emissions World GDP growth rates 5-year annual growth average, % 5
Reference Low Carbon Policy Paralysis
4
Energy intensity in different scenarios 120
Index, 2010=100
CO2 emissions/TPED Index, 2010=100
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
3
2 40 1
20
40
Reference
Reference
Low Carbon
20
Policy Paralysis
Policy Paralysis 0 '11-15
'21-25
'31-35
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
6
0 2010
2020
2030
Low Carbon
2040
0 2010
2020
2030
2040
Energy demand and energy mix differ … depending on growth, efficiency, technology and policies
20
World energy demand per fuel
World energy mix
Bn toe
Share of total energy demand in 2010 and 2040, %
New renewables Hydro Gas Coal 2020 2010
Biomass and waste Nuclear Oil
Coal
1% 10% 2% 6%
28%
Gas
2010
2040
Oil
10% 3% 5%
Hydro
31%
16
28%
Ref
Nuclear
22%
6%
23%
25%
Biomass
12 9%
8
12% 4%
4
8%
0 LC
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
7
PP
Ref
LC
PP
4% 10% 3% 4%
PP
LC 24% 24%
Ref
19%
20%
27%
32%
Fossil fuels are here to stay Considerable need for investments, irrespective of scenario, in risky places Global oil demand* 120 100
Mbd International bunkers Non-OECD Asia Low Carbon
Other non-OECD OECD Policy Paralysis
5000 4000
60
3000
40
2000
20
1000
0
0
2010
* Excl. Bio-fuels Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
2020
2030
Bcm International bunkers Non-OECD Asia Low Carbon
6000
80
2000
8
Global gas demand
2040
2000
2010
2020
Other non-OECD OECD Policy Paralysis
2030
2040
Need for investments, irrespective of scenario Global oil production* and demand Mbd Extra production in the Reference scenario 120
Cumulative global production of oil and gas 2014-2035 Bn barrels
New production to satisfy Low Carbon demand Production* from currently producing fields
100
1000
Tcm
Additional production Production from existing fields
100
gas
oil
800
80
600
60
400
40
20
200
20
0
0
80 60 40
2012
2015
* Excl. NGLs Source: IEA (production), Statoil (demand)
9
2020
2035
0 NP
450
NP
450
Ikke en hvilken som helst næring Svært stor betydning for norsk økonomi Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall i 2013 Olje og gass som andel av…
Investeringene på norsk sokkel i 2013 tilsvarte 50 operahus
Samlet eksport
Statens inntekter
59 prosent
31 prosent
Realinvesteringer Bruttonasjonalprodukt
29 prosent
23 prosent
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/OED/Oljedirektoratet/Finansdepartementet/Statsbygg
10
Security Classificati on: Internal - Status:
Making progress on cost and capital efficiency CMU February 2014
Statoil technical efficiency programme
[STEP] Specific high-impact projects 1. End-to-end well delivery
2. Strengthen early phase 3. Standardisation and industrialisation
Expected annual savings of USD 1.3 billion from 2016
1
On track for 2014 • More efficient offshore well deliveries • Adjusted the offshore rig portfolio
4. Operations, maintenance and modification excellence
• Strong production efficiency
5. Supplier management and efficiency
• NCS modification and field cost trending downwards
6. Simplification and resource prioritisation
• Increased resource efficiency
Bærekraft og sårbarhet de neste tiårene… … bestemmes av… • Brått fall eller avdempet reduksjon i lønnsom aktivitet på sokkelen • Svikt eller vekst i internasjonal etterspørsel etter leverandørindustriens produkter • Omstillingsevnen og produktivitetsutviklingen i konkurranseutsatt næringsliv • Viljen og evnen til fortsatte strukturreformer i norsk økonomi
Illustrasjon: Roar Hagen
12
Security Classificati on: Internal - Status:
Thank you!
13
