MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES REPUBLIK INDONESIA REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
ENERGY OUTLOOK, THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
2006 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CONFERENCE FOR SUSTAINABLE ASIA KUALA LUMPUR, NOVEMBER 27, 2006
CHINA AND INDIA DOMINATE ENERGY DEMAND IN ASIA Mt oe 7000
6000
5000
17% 4000
3000
2000
China South Korea Indonesia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Other Asia
Japan India Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Hong Kong
5%
India S out h K or ea J a pa n
13% 8%
22%
1000
9%
C hina
48%
38% 0 1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Ken Koyama, PhD, “Global Oil Demand: Outlook and Uncertainties”, 4th Joint OPEC-IEA Workshop, May 19, 2006 , Oslo, Norway
FOSSIL ENERGY DOMINATES THE WORLD’S ENERGY
EIA: International Energy Outlook 2006
WORLD OIL DEMAND BY COUNTRY CATEGORY (Million barrel/day)
2010
2015
2025
OECD
51,5
52,8
54,6
Developing Countries
34,2
40,0
52,9
Ex Soviet Union
5,0
5,3
5,7
World
90,7
98,0
113,1
Source: OPEC (Background paper in 10th International Energy Forum, Doha, 22-24 April 2006)
WORLD OIL DEMAND BY SECTOR (EIA’s IEO 2006 REFERENCE CASE)
Source: U.S. DOE/Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006
PROVED OIL RESERVES AT END 2005
Source: BP Statistic 2006
RESERVES BREAKDOWN BY RISK (TOTAL OIL & GAS RESERVES)
Canada
Qatar UAE
US
Negligible Risk
PROVED NATURAL GAS RESERVES AT END 2005
Source: BP Statistic 2006
PROVED COAL RESERVES AT END 2005
Source: BP Statistic 2006
ENERGY IS A GLOBAL ISSUES OECD, ASEAN, MERCOSURE, EU, OPEC, etc
“Dialogue… should be widened and deepened to cover more issues of mutual concern…”
REGIONAL ENERGY COOPERATION
•
Avoid Harmful Supply Disruption
•
Diverse, Sustainable And Efficient Energy Mix
•
Improve Energy Efficiency
•
Develop Renewable Energy Sources
•
Develop Technology And Innovation
•
Establish Regional Energy Market
•
Establish Self-sustained Sources of Funding
TRANS ASEAN GAS PIPELINE THAILAND
LAOS
Manila
LNG Receiving Terminal
Bangkok CAMBODIA
Ban Mabtapud
Phnom Penh
Existing Pipeline
Philipines South
VIETNAM
Planned Pipeline
China
Ho Chi Minh City
CNG Plant
Sea Erawan
Khanon
LNG Plant
Songkhla
Bangkot Lawit
Jerneh Guntong
Banda Aceh
Penang
Lhokseumawe
West Natuna
WEST Kerteh Duyong Mogpu MALAYSIA
Kuala Lumpur
Port Klang
Alpha
Port Dickson
Bintul
EASTu MALAYSIA
Pacific Ocean Manado
Dumai
SINGAPORE Batam Bintan
Duri
Kuchin g
Ternate Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal
S U
KALIMANTAN Samarinda
M A
Padang
Kota Kinibalu
BRUNEI
Bandara Seri Begawan
Singapore Gas Trunkline
Medan
Natuna
T
Balikpapan
HALMAHERA
Attaka Tunu Bekapai
Sorong
R A
Jambi Jayapura
SULAWESI Grissik
Banjarmasin
Palembang
BURU
Jakarta
Ardjuna Fields Cirebon Semarang
JAVA
IRIAN JAYA
SERAM
Ujung Pandang
I Pagerungan N D O N E S I A
MADURA Bangkalan Surabaya
SUMBAWA
Maluku Selatan
FLORES
LOMBOK
BALI
Indian Ocean
TIMOR
SUMBA AUSTRALIA
Merauke
ASEAN POWER GRID THAILAND
LAOS
Manila
Bangkok CAMBODIA
Philipines
Ban Mabtapud
Phnom Penh
VIETNAM
Ho Chi Minh City
Existing Transmission
South
Planned Transmission
China
Power Plant
Sea Erawan
Khanon Songkhla
Bangkot Lawit
Jerneh Kota Kinibalu
Guntong Banda Aceh
Penang
Lhokseumawe
West Natuna
WEST Kerteh Duyong Mogpu MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Alpha
Bandara Seri Begawan
Kuala Lumpur
Port Klang Medan
Natuna
Bintul u
EAST MALAYSIA
Port Dickson
Pacific Ocean Manado
Dumai
SINGAPORE Batam Bintan
Duri
Kuching
HALMAHERA
Bontang
S
Total Sumatera : 3,200 MW U
KALIMANTAN Samarinda
M A
Padang
Ternate
Total Kalimantan : 800 MW
T
Balikpapan
R A
Jambi
Sorong
Attaka Tunu Bekapai
Jayapura
Total Sulawesi : 650 MW SULAWESI
Grissik
Banjarmasin
Palembang
IRIAN JAYA BURU Ujung Pandang
Jakarta
Semarang
JAVA
Total Java-Bali : 18,500 MW
MADURA Bangkalan Surabaya
Indian Ocean
I Pagerungan N D O N E S I A
BALI
SUMBAWA
SERAM
TOTALCAPACITY 25,000 MW
FLORES
LOMBOK TIMOR
SUMBA AUSTRALIA
Merauke
HYPOTHETICAL MODEL FOR BIOFUEL DEVELOPMENT Energy Self Sufficient Village
SHORT RUN
Create Job
Each Region Developing its Bioenergy Potential
Biofuel Development
LONG RUN
Energy Poverty Alleviation
Special Biofuel Zone
Explicit Investment Employment Ratio
On time Schedule
Demplot
Infrastructure
ENERGY POLICY FRAMEWORK EXPLORATION PRODUCTION SUPPLY SIDE POLICY
SECURITY OF SUPPLY CONSERVATION (PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION)
ENERGY PRICING
DIRECT SUBSIDY
DIVERSIFICATION DEMAND SIDE POLICY
SOCIETY AWARENESS CONSERVATION (EFFICIENCY)
MEMR WEBSITE www.esdm.go.id www.mesdm.net
