Energy for the Future Renewable Energy for the Survival of Mankind Preben Maegaard, Founding President, World Wind Energy Associaton Chairperson, WCRE, World Council for Renewable Energy

Director, Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy ,

DIS at Folkecenter, February 7, 2013

Folkecenter since1974 had a crucial role: o To inform o To inspire o To involve o To demonstrate o To test o To transfer new technology

• New Book

Before Fukushima

After……..

The oil trap!

Gap between fossil oil found and consumed Total reserves 120-160 billion tonnes Global annual consumption 4 billion tonnes

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND CHALLENGE

Why we need RE Now! • Most conventional energies will have been exhausted by 2050: markets become progressively tight, prices tend to go up - RE are plentiful and inexhaustible • The import dependence on conventional fuels is increasing in most countries - RE are available everywhere, energy autonomy is a possible outlook • Environment and climate problems of conventional energies are high on political agenda RE are clean and neutral for GHG emissions • RE stimulate the global economy by technological innovation, new opportunities in industry (SMEs!) and finance, new jobs, rural development • A new hope for the 2.000 million ‘energy poor’ - RE are decentralised, easy to implement

Towards a Renewable Energy Economy… MOTIVATIONS: • • • • • • •

Climate change CO2 emissions Pollution of air & water Economics Power quality Security of supply Peak oil

Source: Global Warming Act

Uneven Access to the Benefits of Modern Energy Supply

In d

C

ia

1.900 631

hi na

7.689 5.642

us tr al ia Fr an ce R us si a

A

U

an a C

SA

17.179 13.338 11.126

da

kWh / year

Per capita electricity consumption

Towards a RE Economy… CHANGE OF SCALE FROM: • 100 major fossil energy deposits worldwide • Big scale fossil fuel technologies • Large national structures and power monopolies • Gigawatt-size systems • Centralized power generation • Uni-directional power flow

Big Power Plants

110/220/380 kV

10/20 kV

0.4 kV

Industry

Towards a RE Economy… CHANGE OF SCALE TO: • Small renewable energy devices • Millions of small-scale energy suppliers • Local and individual supply • KW or MW-size systems • On-site and distributed generation • Bi-directional power flow

Source: EnergyWeb@2010, www.bpa.gov

Towards a RE Economy… BENEFITS: • Improved efficiency • Reduced cost to consumers and utilities • Increased system reliability • Industrial development, new technologies, job creation

• Replacement of fossil fuels • Reduced environmental impacts • Development of local infrastructures & employment • Saving foreign currencies

Is the Renewable Energy Option realistic ? • Renewable energy is getting cheaper through mass production

• All renewable energies have conquered important niche markets • They compete successfully • Being decentralised and fluctuating, renewable energy implies a new supply and demand system – challenges ahead are gigantic

What are Renewable Energies? • Traditional RE : today 18% of global energy supply – Large hydro : 6% of global supply – Fuel wood and other biomass in poor households (12%) • New RE : today in Germany, USA, Spain, Denmark, China… – Wind power – Solar photovoltaics (PV power) – Solar heating – Small hydro power – Bio-energy (power, fuels, and heat) – Geothermal power and heat

Global Aspects • Renewable Energies are, except geothermal energy, derived from the SUN, our all ‘world heritage’: Fossil energies are also derived from the SUN, but they are owned by a few only • Energy autonomy through RE is a realistic option for all: communities, regions, nations. But as conditions of use are not the same everywhere, trade is important : example, international trade of PV modules in 2011 was more than 50 billion USD » Trade in renewable energy stimulates PEACE while the fight for access to the fossil resources tempts to military intervention

Unlimited Energy Resources

Renewable energy for 5 billion years

Waterpower

Sunpower on earth’s surface

Biomass

Wavepower

Windpower 18 Human’s total energy consumption in 2003

The fossil fuel age low efficiency, huge climate and ressource problems 65% of useful energy is wasted in the cooling towers. This is termodynamical criminality!

The Supply Doctrine 1. Further development can make wind & solar power the primary source for electricity and heating 2. Biomass and natural gas will be back-up storage when wind- and solar energy is not sufficient. 3. Biomass and NG are limited resources and should not be used when sufficient solar and wind is available.

Conditions for Successful Implementation of Wind Energy

1.

To allow connection of wind power to the public grid

2.

Power purchase obligation of electricity from renewable energy installations

3.

To pay a fair and guarantied price as a compensation to independent power producers

Wind Energy

Wind Energy for 200 Years!

1952: 45 kW

1986: 2000 kW

2005: 4.500 kW

Development of Wind Energy Technology

New Book in 2013: The Emergence of Modern Wind Power

J. Juul, the Pioneer!

U. Hütter and TVIND, Tne Rotor Blade Pioneers

Shaping the landscape

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

LANDSCAPE WITH ROLLING HILLS AND WINDMILLS

One 2 MW windmill: 8 mio. kWh/y

6 x 2 MW in Gettrup near Folkecenter

Alsthom/Ecotenica 5 MW

Local Production, Sri Lanka, 2013

Die Wind Ressourcen findet man in Nordeuropa

Wind Energy World Total

Source : WWEA Report 2011

Country-Wise Total Capacity installed by June 30 2011

Source : WWEA Report 2011

Total Installed Wind Capacity 1997 – 2010 [MW] and Forecast of Wind Energy Installation Worldwide up to 2020

1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

The operating cost of wind energy is lowest while the operating cost of nuclear, coal, oil and gas are much higher and they will continue to grow higher while the wind operating cost is likely to go down as the quality of equipment improve.

WINDMILLS IN THE ALPS

WINDFARM IN USA

WINDMILLS IN ZAFRANA, EGYPT

ROAD TRANSPORT OF BLADE

FROM THE LM BLADE FACTORY

Power from the Oceans

OCEAN TRANSPORT OF BLADES

OCEAN FOUNDATION

Horns Rev: Purpose built Vessel

Source: Vestas

5 MW Repower installed Offshore by Floating Cranes

Heli-hoist platform

Source: Vestas

Offshore windfarm at Middelgrunden between Sweden and Denmark

Solar Cells, PV

PV at the Folkecenter

Produktionsdata for 20 forskellige typer solcellemoduler på Folkecenteret https://installations.tigoenergy.com/main/main.php?sysi d=9211

Paneloversigt , Panasonic Kyocera Yingli Panda Ningbo Qixin Samsung Hyundai Sun Power Bosch

Paneloversigt, poly Sharp JA Yingli Trina Suntech Moser Baer ITS REC Schott Solar

Global PV Production 1999 - 2010

30.000

27.293 25.000

MW

20.000

15.000

12.464 10.000

7.911 4.279

5.000

202

287

401

560

764

1.256

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1.819

2.536

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

Increase:119% from 2009 to 2010 Source: Photon, 4/2011

2009

2010

2010 Shares of Supply by Country USA 4.6 %

Rest of Europe 3.3 %

South Korea 3.2 %

Africa & Middle East 0.1 %

Rest of Asia 4.9 %

Malaysia 5.2 % China 48.0 %

Japan 8.4 %

Germany 9.7 %

Source: Photon, 4/2011

Taiwan 12.6 %

2010 Global Top-15 Manufacturers (%) Suntech Power (China)

5,8 5,4

JA Solar (China) First Solar (USA)

5,2

Yingli (China)

3,9 3,8 50,4

3,7

Trina (China) Q-Cells (Germany) Motech (Taiwan) Sharp (Japan) Gintech (Taiwan) Kyocera (Japan)

3,5

3,3 3,0 2,4 2,1 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,9 Source: Photon, 4/2011

Sun Power (USA) Neo Solar Power (Taiwan)

CSI (China) Hanwha SolarOne (China) REC (Norway ) Remaining Manufacturers

2010 Global Cell Production = 27,293 MW

Share, Crystalline and Thin-film 100% 90%

2,2 0,5

1,5 1,0

5,2

5,1

4,7

6,4

0,9 1,4 1,7

0,8 1,2 1,6

6,1

5,0 5,3

Other

9,0 80%

Band Type Silicon

70% 45,2 60%

47,7

CIS 43,2

52,9

Amorpous/Micromorphous Silicon

50% 40%

Cadmium Telluride

30%

Polycrystalline Silicon 20%

42,2

38,3

37,8

33,2

Monocrystalline Silicon

10% 0%

2007

2008

2009

2010

Where PV is used

Largest PV plant 2010: Sarnia i Canada, 80 MWp

PV at the Folkecenter

Benefits of 20 years with feed-in tariffs: 25% of the world’s PV is installed at German farm roofs

The Green Economy

Vision

Sol energi villa

Boliger

PV lys i parken

Bro

Denmark: New government in 2011, New energy policy

Dramatic Change of Power Infrastructure 1985 – 2009

CHP: Two Times more efficient! District Heating and CHP is the single most important improvement of energy efficiency 10%

60%

40%

40% 100%

100%

Before

Now 50%

Conventional Power Plant

Combined Heating/Cooling & Power

When the Cooling Towers are the Radiators in People,s Houses 60.000 km pipelines for heating and cooling in Denmark

C

75% of the space heatning is by District Heating

How to phase-out fossil fuels

How to balance the power system

CHP for Large and Small Cities

3.500 kW

350 kW

Holstebro & Struer, 28 Mwel, 44.000 Consumers

Vorupör, 1,8 MWel, 800 Inhabitants

Faaborg, 7 Mwel, 7.000 Inhabitants

CHPs from 3 to 150 kW

CHP and Community Biogas

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

New DK Government strategy

New government strategy

Power production by type of supplier

PJ

200

150

100

50

0 1980

'85

'90

'95

'00

'05 '07

Wind turbines and Hydre power

Autoproducers (Private)

Small Scale CHP Units

Large Scale CHP Units

Large Scale Units, Power only

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

App. 20% today

Windenergy in Denmark

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

Power prices, Europe, without Taxes DKK per kWh 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 IE

IT

LU

UK

2006

DE

NL

BE

2007

PT EU15 AT

ES

15

Folkecenter for Renewable Energy

GR

DK

SE

NO

FR

FI

Source: Eurostat

Conditions for Successful Implementation of Wind Energy 1.

To allow connection of wind power to the public grid

2.

Power purchase obligation of electricity from renewable energy installations

3.

To pay a fair and guarantied price as a compensation to independent power producers

Historical experience 1.

2.

3.

4.

The Danish heat and electricity system is generally locally developed and owned by consumers and municipalities. This has been a success story. The recent (1975-2000) development of wind power and other Renewable Energy sources has been bottom up generated with mainly local ownership. 2002 Change of government: Renewable energy programs were cancelled. Collapse of community structures 2011 Change of government: New ambitious energy targets Source: Frede Hvelplund

Time for Energy Democracy

Present Situation Present situation: With lack of local, democratic community structures, re-vitalization of monopolies 1. 2. 3. 4.

Offshore mainly owned by large power companies. Very expensive wind power(DONG/Anholt) Monopoly when bidding (DONG/Anholt) Lack of democracy in the planning processes. This is against a long tradition of community power on the Danish energy scene. Source: Frede Hvelplund

Opposition to Green Power, Why? - Typically green energy, in particular wind power

which its strong impact on the visual environment is opposed because people find it intrusive that non-community citizens for profit take over the land available . - Lack of respect and concern of the community solutions causes NIMBY. - CP can change the balance of the scale!

From “present development” to community power and wind power integration. 1. 2.

3.

4.

If wind power should be accepted in the future, local/regional ownership is a must. If the technical challenges linked to a very large share of wind power should be solved, local-/regional ownership is a must. The present distant ownership trend is inefficient both with regard to generating the necessary acceptance, and with regard to technical integration of wind power. Therefore community ownership should be strenghtened and re-established in Denmark- and other countries as well! Source: Frede Hvelplund

Community Power Definition • Community Power typically involves decentralized green power production • This infrastructure can include, wind power, district heating, combine heat and power, biogas, biomass and solar. • Community Power is owned and operated by the community, which means its citizens. • The benefits from CP are delivered to the community instead of large, foreign corporations, state owned companies, individual for-profit companies and similar

Community Power Benefits - Local Community Owns/Installs/Operates local green power producing infrastructure - Benefits from the infrastructure are reaped by the local community - Local pollution reduction, CO2 reduction, job creation, business development, economic diversification and skill building. - Once a community has experience with CP, that skill can be transferred to other communities. - Sense of community is reinforced by working on a local project that is initiated by and benefits the community

How Community Power is different - Community chooses a infrastructure that is

best to strengthen the social economy. - Financial benefits are reinvested into the community; thus the community becomes shareholder of its own resources. - CP projects tend to be smaller scale and can grow at a rate that the community is comfortable with. - .

Summary 1. Advantages of community based supply system are significant, the main benefits being: • Solar and wind cover the need for power, heating/cooling and mobility when available • Biomass is the primary source of energy for back-up • Reliability: Wind, PV and CHP are mature technologies.

Summary 2. • The Ability to incorporate Renewable Energy: biogas, solar for power and heating, wind for power and heat, gasification of locally grown biomass. • Scalability and Flexibility: Local are scalable and flexible to operate. • High Efficiency: Medium size,local CHP units have a system efficiency of 85-90%. (Concentional power 35 to 40 %)

Summary 3. • Low investments: Decentralized units can be manufactured in big numbers that brings costs down. • High excess power prices: Will have the value of the fuel that it replaces. • Community democracy: Local energy autonomy brings new income and the “power back to the people”. • Revitalization of local energy democracy with consumer owned and municipal utilities.

New legal framework is required  By legislation only local public companies can obtain permission and access to sites for wind turbines for collective supply.  Income from local wind power can be spent only by the local green foundation for common good energy purposes.  Outcome: The necessary local acceptance of new wind turbines is secured when the community harvests the benefits

Society as a whole benefits  The whole society benefits from

lower power prices and competiveness compared to central offshore wind energy.  A small country like Denmark will save USD 4 billion 2012-2020 by chosing socially owned wind power that will supply 50% of the demand for electricity compared to offshore as planned the central utility.

Spildevandsanlæg Jordhus

Test-site for Bølge

Halmhus

Plus energi hus

Vingelund

Brintanlæg

Solvarmeanlæg

Biodomen

Solcelleanlæg

Rapsolie

!Preben Maegaard [email protected] www.folkecenter.net

Test-site for små vindmø