Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 26, 2014

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Crude Oil Price World Oil Demand & Supply Oil Demand/Supply Ratio Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC Crude Oil Output Oil Demand: World Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD Oil Demand: G7 Oil Demand: Europe Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East Oil Demand: Asia Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe Oil Demand: Latin America Oil Supply: OPEC Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia Oil Supply: Big Producers Oil Demand

December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

1 2-3 4 5 6 7 8-9 10-12 13 14 15-16 17 18-19 20-21 22 23 24 25 26 27-28

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Crude Oil Price Figure 1. 170

170

CRUDE OIL PRICES (dollars per barrel)

150

150

130

130

110

110

90

90

70

70 12/26

Brent Crude (68.2)

50

50

WTI Crude (54.7) yardeni.com

30 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

30

2015

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 2. 30

30

CRUDE OIL PRICES (dollars per barrel)

20

20

Spread between Brent Crude and WTI Crude

10

10

12/26 0

0

-10

-10

yardeni.com

-20 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-20

2015

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

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World Oil Demand & Supply Figure 3. 92 90

Nov

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

92 90

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

88

88

86

86

84

84

82

82

80

80

Source of Data _____________

78

78

76

Oil Market Intelligence (OMI)

76

74

US Department of Energy (DOE)

74

72

72

70

70

68

68 yardeni.com

66 94 94 92 90

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

66

15 Nov

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

94 92 90

88

88

86

86

84

84

82

82

80

Oil Demand (OMI)

80

78

Supply (DOE)

78

76

76

74

74

72

72

70

70

68

yardeni.com

66 94 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Oil Demand (OMI) Supply (OMI)

yardeni.com 94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

66

15

Nov Nov

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

68

95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65

15

*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates. Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.

Page 2 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

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World Oil Demand & Supply Figure 4. 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

Nov

(million barrels per day)

_____________ Source of Data Oil Market Intelligence (OMI) US Department of Energy (DOE)

yardeni.com

66 94 100 95

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66

15 100

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY* (million barrels per day)

Nov

95

90

90

85

85

80

Oil Demand (OMI)

80

75

Supply (DOE)

75

70

70

65

65 yardeni.com

60 94 95 90

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Nov

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

60

15

(million barrels per day)

95 90

85

85

80

80

75

75

Oil Demand (OMI) Supply (OMI)

70

70

65

65 yardeni.com

60 94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

60

15

*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates. Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.

Page 3 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio Figure 5. 1.12

1.12

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO*

1.10

1.10

1.08

1.08

1.06

1.06

1.04

1.04

1.02

Nov

yardeni.com

1.00 94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

1.02

1.00

15

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average of world crude supply Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 6. 1.15

225

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

210 195 180

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio* 1.10

165 150

Brent Crude Oil (yearly percent change)

135 120 105 90 75

1.05

60 45 30

Nov

15 0

1.00

-15 -30 -45

12/26 yardeni.com

.95 94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-60 -75

16

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average world crude supply. Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Financial Times.

Page 4 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC Figure 7. 58 56

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)

58

Nov

56

(million barrels per day)

54

54

52

52

Non-OPEC (57.0)

50

50

48

48

46

46

44

44

42

42

40

40

38

38 Nov

36

36

OPEC (36.8)

34

34

32

32

30

30

28

28

26

26 yardeni.com

24 93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

24

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 8. 65

65

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data) (million barrels per day)

Sep 55

55

Non-OPEC 45

45

Sep

Total OPEC

35

35

25

25

yardeni.com

15 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

15

Source: US Department of Energy.

Page 5 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Crude Oil Output Figure 9. 40

40

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data) (million barrels per day)

Nov

36

36

32

32

28

28

24

24

OMI DOE

20

20

16

16

yardeni.com

12 84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

12

18

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 10. 58 56

58

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

Nov

(million barrels per day)

56

54

54

52

52

50

50

48

48

46

46

44

44

OMI DOE

42

42

40

40 yardeni.com

38 92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

38

18

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 6 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: World Figure 11. 94 92

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

94

Nov

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

92

90

90

88

88

86

86

World (92.8)

84

84

82

82

80

80

78

78

76

76

74

74

72

72

70

70

68

68

66

66

64

64

62

62 yardeni.com

60 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

60

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 12. 5

5

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average) 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

Nov

0

0

-1

-1

World (0.70) -2

-2

-3

-3 yardeni.com

-4 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-4

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 7 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD Figure 13. 55

55

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) 50

50

Nov

45

45

40

40

35

35

30

30

OECD-34 (45.6) Non-OECD* (47.2)

25

25

yardeni.com

20 93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

20

16

* Total excluding OECD-34 Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 14. 10

10

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average) 8

8

OECD-34 (-0.8)

6

6

Non-OECD* (2.2) 4

4 Nov

2

2

0

0 Nov

-2

-2

-4

-4 yardeni.com

-6 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-6

16

* Total excluding OECD-34. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 8 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD Figure 15. 57 54

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

57

Nov

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

54

51

New World: Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan

51

48

Old World: US, Western Europe, & Japan

48

45

45

42

42

39

39

36

36

33

33

30

30 yardeni.com

27 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

27

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 16. 8

8

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average) 6

6

4

4

2

2

Nov

0

0

-2

-2

New World: Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan Old World: US, Western Europe, & Japan

-4

-6

-4

-6 yardeni.com

-8 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-8

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 9 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: G7 Figure 17. 38

38

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OECD G7*

36

36

34

34

Nov 32

32

yardeni.com

30 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

30

16

* Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and US territories. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 18. 22 21

22

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

21

United States (19.0)

20

20 Nov

19

19

18

18

17

17

Western Europe (13.5)

16

16

15

15

14

14 Nov

13

13 yardeni.com

12 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

12

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 10 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: G7 Figure 19. 6.0 5.8

6.0

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

5.8

5.6

5.6

Japan (4.3)

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

Nov

4.2

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.8

yardeni.com 87

88

89

3.8 90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 20. 2.6

2.6

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) Nov

2.4

2.4

Canada 2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

yardeni.com

1.4 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

1.4

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 11 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: G7 Figure 21. 15

15

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

14

14

Europe Big 4* Plus Japan

13

13

12

12

Nov 11

10

11

yardeni.com 87

88

89

10 90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

* France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 22. 3.2 3.0

3.2

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

Nov

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

Germany (2.4) France (1.7) Italy (1.2) UK (1.5) Spain (1.2)

1.4 1.2 1.0

1.4 1.2 1.0 yardeni.com

.8 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.8

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 12 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Europe Figure 23. 6.4 6.2

6.4

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

6.2

6.0

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.4

Nov

Other EU*

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2 yardeni.com

4.0 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

4.0

16

* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 24. 2.4

2.4

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) Nov

2.2

2.2

Other OECD Europe* 2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

yardeni.com

1.4 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

1.4

16

* Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 13 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East Figure 25. 14

14

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(millions of barrels per day, 12-month avg) Nov 12

12

Asia Excluding China, South Korea, & Japan 10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

yardeni.com

2 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

2

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 26. 9.5 9.0

9.5

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

9.0

8.5

8.5

Nov

8.0

8.0

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.0

OPEC*

6.5

6.5

6.0

6.0

Middle East

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0 yardeni.com

2.5 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

2.5

16

* Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Neutral Zone, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 14 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Asia Figure 27. 11.2 10.6

11.2

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

10.6 Nov

10.0

10.0

9.4

9.4

8.8

8.8

8.2

8.2

China (10.2)

7.6

7.6

7.0

7.0

6.4

6.4

5.8

5.8

5.2

5.2

4.6

4.6

4.0

4.0

3.4

3.4

2.8

2.8

2.2

2.2 yardeni.com

1.6 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

1.6

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 28. 4.0 3.8

4.0

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Nov

(12-month average, million barrels per day)

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

India

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0 yardeni.com

.8 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.8

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 15 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Asia Figure 29. 1.3

1.3

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Nov

1.2

1.2

Australia & New Zealand 1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

.9

.9

.8

.8

yardeni.com

.7 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.7

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 30. 2.6 2.4

2.6

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

2.4

Nov

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

South Korea

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

.8

.8

.6

.6 yardeni.com

.4 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.4

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 16 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe Figure 31. 10

10

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) 9

9

8

8

7

7

Former Soviet Union

6

6

5

5

Nov

4

4

yardeni.com

3 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

3

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 32. 1.2

1.2

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) 1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

.9

.9

Eastern Europe* .8

.8

.7

.7 Nov

.6

.6

yardeni.com

.5 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.5

16

* Albania, Bosnia Herzegovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slovenia, Former Yugoslavia. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 17 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Latin America Figure 33. 6.9 6.7 6.5

6.9

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

6.7

Nov

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

6.5

6.3

6.3

6.1

6.1

5.9

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.3

Latin America*

5.1

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.1

yardeni.com

2.9 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

3.1 2.9

16

* Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nantilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 34. 1.5

1.5

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) Nov

Latin America Excluding Mexico and Brazil 1.0

1.0

.5

.5

yardeni.com

.0 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

.0

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 18 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand: Latin America Figure 35. 3.7 3.5

3.7

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

3.5

Nov

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.9

Brazil

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.5 yardeni.com

1.3 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

1.3

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 36. 2.3

2.3

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average) 2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

Mexico

2.0

2.0

Nov

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6 yardeni.com

1.5 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

1.5

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 19 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC Figure 37. 36 34

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: OPEC

.4

DUBAI

(million barrels per day)

.3

32 Nov

30

.2 28 26

.1

24

Nov

22

.0 95

3.0 2.8

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

ABU DHABI

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 1.6

INDONESIA Nov

2.6

1.4

2.4 1.2

2.2 2.0

1.0

1.8 1.6

.8

Nov

1.4 1.2

.6 95

1.4

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

ALGERIA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 4.6

IRAN

4.2 Nov

1.2

3.8

1.0

3.4

.8

3.0

.6

Nov

2.6

.4

2.2 1.8

.2 95 2.3 2.1

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

ANGOLA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 4.5

IRAQ

4.0 Nov

1.9

3.5

Nov

1.7

3.0

1.5

2.5

1.3

2.0

1.1

1.5

.9

1.0

.7

.5 yardeni.com

.5 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

.0

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 20 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC Figure 38. 3

KUWAIT

(million barrels per day)

.9

QATAR

Nov

.8 .7

Nov

2

.6 .5 1

.4 .3

0

.2 95

2.0

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

LIBYA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 12

SAUDI ARABIA

1.6 1.2

10 Nov

.8

Nov

.4

8

.0 -.4

6 95

.8

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

NEUTRAL ZONE

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 3.0

U.A.E.

.7

2.8 Nov

.6

2.6

.5

2.4

.4

2.2

.3

2.0 Nov

.2

1.8

.1

1.6

.0

1.4 95

2.8

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

NIGERIA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 3.9

VENEZUELA

2.6

3.4

2.4

2.9

2.2

Nov

2.4

2.0

1.9 Nov

1.8

1.4

1.6

.9 yardeni.com

1.4 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

.4

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 21 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas Figure 39. 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40

4.0

CANADA

(million barrels per day)

Nov

3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6

95 1.2

Nov

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: NON-OPEC

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

OTHER AMERICAS

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 1.2 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4

COLUMBIA Nov

1.0 .8 .6 .4

Nov

.2 95 12

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

NON-OPEC NGLs

15

17

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 3.8

MEXICO

Nov

10

95

3.4 3.0

8

2.6

Nov

6

2.2

4

1.8

2

1.4 95

1.0 .9

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

ARGENTINA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

UNITED STATES

15

17 10

Nov

9 8

.8

7

.7

6

.6

5

Nov

.5

yardeni.com

.4 95 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 .9 .6 .3

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

BRAZIL

95

97

99

15

17

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

4 3

17

Nov

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 22 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe Figure 40. 8

EUROPE

.9

OTHER EUROPE

(million barrels per day) 7

.8

6

.7

5

.6

4

.5 Nov

Nov

3

.4

2

.3 95

7.0 6.6

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

NORTH SEA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 .5

OTHER NORTH SEA

6.2 5.8

.4

5.4 5.0 4.6

.3

4.2 3.8 3.4

Nov

3.0

.2

Nov

2.6 2.2 1.8

.1 95

3.7 3.5

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

NORWAY

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 3.0

UNITED KINGDOM

3.3 2.5

3.1 2.9 2.7

2.0

2.5 2.3 1.5

2.1 1.9 1.7

1.0

Nov

1.5

Nov

1.3 yardeni.com

1.1 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

95

97

99

.5 01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 23 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East Figure 41. 5.0

AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

2.2

OTHER AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

(million barrels per day)

2.0

4.5

1.8 4.0 1.6 3.5 Nov

1.4

Nov

3.0

1.2

2.5

1.0 95

1.0

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

EGYPT

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 .40

GABON

.9

.35 Nov

.8

.30

.7

.25 Nov

.6

.20

.5

.15 95

1.1

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

OMAN

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 .8

SYRIA

.7 1.0

.6

Nov

.5 .9 .4 .3 .8 .2 .1

.7 Nov

.0

yardeni.com

.6 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

95

97

99

-.1 01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 24 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia Figure 42. 22 20

ASIA

(million barrels per day)

.8

MALAYSIA

Nov

.7

18

.6 Nov

16

.5

14

.4

12 10

.3 95

12 11

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

RUSSIA

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17 1.2

OTHER ASIA

1.1

Nov

10

1.0

Nov

9

.9

8

.8

7

.7

6

.6

5

.5 95

.9 .8

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

AUSTRALIA

.7 .6 .5

Nov

.4 .3 .2 95 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

CHINA Nov

95 .9

97

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

INDIA

.8

Nov

.7 .6 yardeni.com

.5 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 25 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Big Producers Figure 43. 13.5

12.5

13.5

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA vs. SAUDI ARABIA

Nov

(million barrels per day)

12.5

US + Canada (13.0)

11.5

11.5

Saudi Arabia (9.5)

10.5

10.5

Nov

9.5

9.5

8.5

8.5

7.5

7.5

6.5

6.5 yardeni.com

5.5 95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

5.5

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 44. 13.5

12.5

13.5

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA vs. RUSSIA

Nov

(million barrels per day)

12.5

US + Canada (13.0)

11.5

11.5

Russia (10.6)

Nov

10.5

10.5

9.5

9.5

8.5

8.5

7.5

7.5

6.5

6.5

5.5

5.5 yardeni.com

4.5 95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

4.5

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 26 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand Figure 45. 9.0 8.8

9.0

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

8.8

8.6

8.6

Europe Big 4*

8.4

8.4

8.2

8.2

8.0

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.4

7.2

7.2

7.0

7.0 Nov

6.8 6.6

6.8

yardeni.com 87

88

89

6.6 90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

* France, Germany, Italy, and UK. Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Figure 46. 20

20

CRUDE OIL DEMAND (yearly percent change)

15

15

China (1.8) 10

10

5

5

Nov 0

0

yardeni.com

-5 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-5

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 27 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Oil Demand Figure 47. 30

30

CRUDE OIL DEMAND (yearly percent change)

25

25

20

20

India (0.5)

15

15

10

10

5

5

Nov

0

0

yardeni.com

-5 87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

-5

16

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Page 28 / December 26, 2014 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

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