Electric cars and the Sustainable Future 23.06.2010
The coincidence of four factors put tremendous pressure on the auto industry
2
Development Electrification
Electric Vehicle
Electric Vehicle
EV optimized Platform
E - Vehicle
Plug In Hybrid ICE, Electric Motor
EV mit REX Electric Motor ICE with generator
Full-Hybrid ICE Electric Motor
Mild-Hybrid ICE, Electric Motor
Micro-Hybrid ICE, Start-Stop
yesterday
today
tomorrow
3
Components for Electrification
Li-Ionen Battery
Ni-Metal Battery Electric Power Steering
Range Extender
Inverter 1st Generation
E-Motor Electric Wheel Hub
E-Brake Assistant
Start Stop Automatic
yesterday
today
tomorrow
4
Experiences of customers What can customers experience with 1000 Wh?
Free time & Sport sleeping
4h
12 h
Car 250 m
Preparing 50 cups tea
Vision
height difference
watching TV
1/4 full bath
10 km today
4 km
driving by car
2h
driving by car .
14 km
acceleration
jogging
12x to 50 km/h
B- Segment Vehicle
playing golf
30 km riding bicycle Body weight: 70 kg 5
Experience Electrification What can customers experience with Electrification?
Electric driving experience
high
A + elektric driving 3-5 km
middle
+ elektric driving up to 50 km
driving up to 100 km
+ electric acceleration up to 40 km/h
Emission free traffic light stop
low Start/Stop Automatic
50 Wh Supercap
1.000 Wh Battery+ ICE
10.000 Wh Battery+REX
Size of energy storage system/ type
20.000 Wh Battery 6
Drivers for sustainable Mobility
Climate changes NEW LEGAL REQUIREMENTS Environmental awareness Experiencing the NEW MOBILITY
Oil ressources, fuel price CHANCE FOR ENERGY SUPPLIER Green Image CHANCE FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Technology leadership A CHANCE for EUROPE High purchase price NEW BUSINESS MODELS
NEW Technologies CHANCE FOR NEW PRODUCTS Electrification drivetrain CHANGES OF INFRASTRUCTURE
new consumer behavior- new technologies- new vehicles, new laws- new infrastructure – new business models
the NEW as a CHANCE 7
Energy concept of complete vehicle Energy consumption [kWh/ 100km] city cycle incl. real – life conditions
optimization auxiliaris & air conditioning ! new, high efficient thermo systems braking
drivetrain losses
! energy recuperation
roll resistance
! efficient aggregates ! optimized tires ! mass reduction vehicle
aerodynamics
! OEM: Aerodynam. optimized body
Significant reduction of energy consumption needs common work Current energy consumption 20-25kWh/ 100km
Source: R. Bosch GmbH
Target energy consumption 8-15kWh/ 100km 8
Technical Potential Analysis Power and Energy Flow – NEDC Cycle FullHybrid
ML350 - HySUV™ Hybrid
Vehicle Measures
Internal Combustion Engine Optimized Strategy Hybrid technology enables the optimization of power flow of the entire vehicle system and supports general measures.
Hybridisation Concept
9
What does energy efficiency cost (2013)? 60,000
EU market incl. VAT
Price incl. 19% VAT EV (red curve): incl. Battery price ICEs (black curve): Honda FR-V, Opel Zafira, Citroen Berlingo
50,000
Purchase price !
Show car MILA EV 40,000
Rolling Cha
30,000
ssis EV Platform
20,000
10,000
0 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Volume / year
140,000
160,000
180,000
10
200,000
Total Cost of Ownership Comparison to VW Polo 1.4
Mila EV Basic: ! 23.540,00 incl. 19% VAT (#150.000)
VW Polo: ! 15.820 ,00 incl. 19% VAT (#400.000)
Car life time (EV & ICEV) 7 years, 100.000km, Battery life time 7 years, not considered: residual value Mila EV EVO Basic: Fixed electricity price: 0,126 EUR/kWh (80% night, 20% day tariff) Consumption: 13,8kWh/100km Insurance + no tax, service: assumptions MS
VW Polo 1.4 Fixed fuel price,: 1,2 EUR/l City consumption: 6,0 l/100km Insurance + tax, service : according Auto Test 08/2008 11
Energy Storage 1.000 Wh are stored in… Supercap Supercap Energy battery Energiebatterie Bamboo Bambussprossen Bambusssprossen Wood Holz Bread dumpling Semmelknödel Semmelknödl Rapeseed oil Rapsöl Chocolate Schokolade Gasoline Benzin 0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
Weight of energy storage kg
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Batteries: Portfolio Electric Energy Storage SuperCaps:
Li-Ion:
highest specific power; limited for applications due to poor energy density
high power and energy density; preferred technology at some point in the future
Specific Power, W/kg at Cell Level
100.000
NiMH:
10.000
DLC 1.000
Li-Ion
Futu re
Li-Io n
state of the art; up to 70% less energy and power density on system level
?
100
Ni-Mh 10
Pb Technology
Pb
for Micro Hybrid applications only
1 1
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Specific Energy, Wh/kg at Cell level 13
Cell Price Development Lithium Ionen Battery: Cell costs 120%
Current costs
Price (%)
100%
Optimization of production (mass production, cell power)
80%
60%
!450
-30 % -60%
new materials 40%
-15 %
cell standardization material price
!315 !250 -10%
2009
!200
-5%
!180
2020 Source: Continental AG
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Apple – an interesting inspiration for the Automotive Industry
patent aluminium housing
size difference
Apple operating system
FOCUS
standard components
speed difference
no difference
Source: Cisco Systems
15
Mini uses this model currently
personalization
product difference
association
FOCUS
association difference
Peugeot diesel engine
no difference
Source: Cisco Systems
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Degree of Electrification
Conclusion
Gasoline
Engine: - ICE - Electric auxiliary system Engine: - ICE - High power -> ICE - low electric range of coverage
Engine: - electric dominant - High power -> electr. machine - high electric range of coverage
Engine: - pure electric
Diesel
Purchase price !
EU Market incl. value-added tax
Volume per year
Ni-Metal Battery
Li-Ion Battery
? 17
Many things started Still many possibilities and chances
CHANCE FOR ENERGY SUPPLIER What is the role?
NEW LEGAL REQUIREMENTS Everyone on ist own or common?
CHANCE FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES Who has the potential to finance?
EXPERIENCE THE NEW MOBILITY Energy efficiency – a rate for premium? A CHANCE FOR EUROPE How do we keep that chance?
CHANCE FOR NEW PRODUCTS Who can handle the complexity?
NEW BUSINESS MODELS Which one will accomplish?
CHANGE OF INFRASTRUCTURE What are the new possibilities?
It is not a question of IF and WHEN It is a question of HOW and WHO
World is changing
Let US change the world 18