Economic recovery from disaster; safer city and economic revitalization Norio MAKI Kyoto University

Kobe(1995) and Tohoku(2011) Kobe (1995) • • •

M7 Death 6,434 people Building damage 249, 180 buildings (460,356 families) – Collapse 104,906 buildings （186,175families） – Major Damage 144,274 building（274,181 families）

• •

Debris 20M t Home less 320,000 people

• • •

Interim Housing 60,000 units Economic Loss 10trillion JPY Affected Municipality 20 cities and towns

– 1 week

Tohoku (2011) (as of August 28, 2012) • • •

M9 Death and Missing 18,715 Building damage 264,035 units – –

Collapse 129,340 units Major damage 264,035 units

• •

Debris 27Mt Home less 360,000 people

•

Interim Housing 110,000 units

– – –

• •

1 week Temporary housing 50,000 Voucher housing 60,000

Economic Loss 17 trillion JPY Affected Municipality 227(10 Prefectures

1

Urban Disaster Kobe 1995

Response Relief

渋滞

Multi Location Cascading Disasters Tohoku 2011

Multi-prefecture coordination Recovery

Fire

2

MultiMulti -Location Disaster Iwate Prefecture

Miyagi Prefecture

Fukushim a Prefectur e

Death/Mis sing 1)

5,989

11,250

1,989

Building Damage 1)

24,739

222,081

83,557

Km2

Km2

Inundation Area 2) (building Infrastructure land use %)

Coastal Area Capital Loss Rate

58 (37%)

327 (23%)

Km2

112 (13%)

47.3%

21.1%

11.9%

Evacuee at maximum

51,553

320,885

131,665

(inside/outsid

1,574

4)

227 municipality government simultaneously work for disaster response and recovery The first mutiprefectural disaster after WW2

(2011,3,1 (2011,3,14 (2012,3,1 1) 5) Prefecture, and Fukushima ) 2) Source: Iwate Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture documents, Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, Iwate Reconstruction Basic Plan, Miyagi Current Reconstruction Basic Plan (not inclusive of JR and automobiles), Development Bank 42,771 127,952 98,221 5) evacuee of Japan, Reconstruction Agency (2012, Mar 12)

8,494

8,494

What we have learned from Kobe recovery

3

Severe Damage for Lifeline Systems Kobe Power

Damage

Recovery in

2600000

9 days

Gas

850000

3 months

Water

1300000

3 months

Sewage

260km

1 year

Phone

193,000

2 weeks

Life recovery became a target of recovery effort

4

Holistic Recovery Research by Hyogo Prefecture and Kyoto University Random Sampled Cross Sectional Survey Series

Pretest 1999 (4th)

Longitudinal Panel Study

N=1289 2001

N=486

2001 (6th)

2003

N=364

2005

N=297

N=717 ΣN=1203

2003 (8th)

N=1203

2005 (10th)

N=1028 By Hayashi

Societal Response after disaster

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

Phase 5

Disaster Formation of Disorientation Impacted SocietyUtopia

Back to Usual

10 hr

10000 hr

100000 hr

Recovery

Reconstruction

100 hr

1000 hr

Emergency Response

Relief

Saving Life

Recovery of Flow Alternatives

Reconstruction

Reconstruction Stock

Temporary recovery

5

Bird's-eye view of life recovery process: The 2003 study results (N=1,203, Jan. Community Empowerment

2003) ＋

公・共・私型の ⑤ 社会意識 ⑦

Active Citizenship Preparedness Rltn to Gov.

－

Encounter To Sig. Other

＋

＋

生活復興感 Life Recovery Damage Alleviation

Life

Recovery 復興過程 Process

＋

－

Event Impact 震災の影響

Rebuilding

＋ ＋

Event Evaluation 震災体験の評価

＋

＋

③地域活動 Community

＋

＋

地域における ②Social 人間関係の Ties 豊かさ

＋ + +

＋

①⑥Housing Income ④Stress Manag’t －

-

EQ Damage

2003 Model Source: Tatsuki Shigeo

Bird's-eye view of life recovery process: The 2005 study results Community Empowerment 公・共・私型の ⑤Preparedness 社会意識

③地域活動 Community

＋

Rebuilding

Encounter To Sig. Other

⑦Relation to

＋

Government

＋ ＋

＋

Life 復興過程 Recovery Process

Damage Alleviation

＋

＋

＋

Event Evaluation 震災体験の評価

生活復興感 Life Recovery

2005 Model

（N=1,028, Jan. 2005)

地域における ②Social Ties 人間関係の 豊かさ ＋

＋ Event Impact 震災の影響

－

①Housing ⑥Income ④

Physical & Psychological Stress

－ －

Source: Tatsuki Shigeo

6

Basic Structure of Recovery Program Individual Assistance for Victims

Major Small Industries Business

Housing

Land Use Planning

Infrastructure

How Far We Came for over 10 years Individual Assistance for Victims

Major Small Industries Business

Housing

Land Use Planning

Infrastructure

7

Economic Recovery

Three Basic Economic Recovery Patterns after Kobe EQ Immediate boom & following slump Ex. Building Reconstruction

Immediate slump & following recovery Ex. Daily Consumption

Immediate slump & No full recovery Ex. Economic Activities w/ Competitors Import & Export at Kobe Harbor

8

Seven Elements for Life Recovery 489 (30.1%)

500 450

Ｎ＝1623

407 ( 25.1%)

400 350 300

197 (12.1%)

250

154 (9.5%) 154 (9.5%) 138 (8.5%)

200 150

84 (5.2%)

100 50 0

Housing

Community

Mental Physical Health

Governmental Assistance

City of Kobe

Kobe recovery • Main target of the recovery projects in Kobe was housing (individual people). Kobe have successfully completed the recovery of commuting communities. • But recovery of small businesses did not work well.

9

And Tohoku (2011)

Tohoku before disaster Iwate

Sendai was only the core of developments The other part was shrinking community. They lacked resilience.

Miyagi

Fukushima

10

Land Use Concept of National Government Before “March 11”

After “March 11” Hill

Housing, Industry, Tourism Facility

Hill

Housing, Public Facility

Sea

Industry, Sea Tourism Facility Highland A: Worst Class Tsunami Evacuation B: Frequently Occurred Tsunami

Green Belt

Source: Minami-Sanriku Town Recovery Basic Plan

Recovery of business is critical for Tohoku recovery

11

Depopulation in Impacted area Continues for 8months until local recovery plan has completed Depopulation rate 1.40%

1.20%

2011

1.00%

0.80% H20 H21

0.60%

H22 0.40%

H23 H24

0.20%

0.00% 4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

2

3

-0.20%

-0.40%

1month

3 month

April 11, 2011

July 7, 2011

Iwate Prefecture

Missio n Statem ent

5 month

July 31, 2011 Draft Plan

Vision

Draft Plan

Final Plan

Public Comments

August 26, 2011

July 3, 2011

Miyagi Prefecture

6 month Sep.11, 2011 Council Approval

July 12August 2, 2011 Public Comments

2nd Draft Plan

Oct.18, 2011 Council Approval Fin al Pla n

Nov.-Dec, 2011 Final Plan With rough Land use plan

Municipality Government

Fukushima Prefecture (Nuclear Influence)

August 11, 2011

End of Dec

Visio n

First Phase Recov ery Plan

12

Safer city or Survivability of Communities

Regional Characteristics (2005) Sustainable Dependent Marginal Disappearing

13

0.1%

2%

3%

90%

36%

10%

40-50%

M9 1978 Miyagi Earthquake Wake up call On Urban disaster Life Line failure Seismic Safety

99%

M7

70% 20% 7%

70%

87%

90% 70%

60%

40%

0-2%

地震調査研究推進本部

Transition of Japanese Disaster Management Policy Kanto Earthquake (1923)

Kobe (1995)

government Citizen

Structural Mitigation National Science Museum

Response Preparedness Tohoku (2011)

Private sector Recovery?? Resilience??

14

Lessons from Tohoku • Pre-disaster recovery planning is essential for communities to survive from disaster impact. • Collaboration with Private Sector is essential for survival of communities. • Integration with future vision is necessary for pre-disaster recovery planning. • Targeting year of pre disaster reduction plan will be target year +10-20 years. So if the target year is 2030 then the vision of 2050 should be considered for the plan.

15