Economic growth and energy consumption trends

p

‰ ‰ For For 1987 1987 – – 1997 1997 :: average average rate rate of of increase increase per per year year - energy energy consumption consumption 10.3%, 10.3%, GDP GDP 7.7% 7.7% ‰ For For 1998 1998 – – 2007 2007 :: average average rate rate of of increase increase per per year year energy consumption consumption 4.2%, 4.2%, GDP GDP 5.6% 5.6% - energy 1

Top ten energy consumers in the world rank

Energy consumption

Oil consumption

1

USA

USA

2

China

China

3

Russia

Japan

4

Japan

Russia

5

India

Germany

6

Germany

India

7

Canada

Korea(2.8%)

8

France

Canada

9

UK

Mexico

10

Korea(2.1%)

France

• Total amount of Oil imported in 2007 : 873million barrels

USA 26%

Others 45%

Japan 9%

Korea 5% India 4%

Germany 4%

China 6%

2

Oil import versus total energy import 100,000 Total energy import

Crude oil import

85566

80,000 66697 67984

60,000 49600

40,000

33691

27117

20,000

22749 18140

32290

31416

38274 30407

27097

22205

1997

52322

38306

37584

14163

18435

1998

1999

25415

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Primary Energy Source Consumption Ratio Energy Rate 100%

1.8

90% 80% 70% 60%

1.8

2

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

14.2

1.8 14.1

14.1

14.3

15.1

14.8

16.1

16

15.6

9.3 1.3

9.4 1.6

10.5 1.9

11.1 1.9

11.2 2.1

12.9

14

14.7

2.9

13.3 2.1

2.5

2.7

21.6

21.9

21.9

22.1

22.4

19.7

20.6

21.2

21.6

50% 40% 30%

53.6

53.6

50.6

49.1

47.6

45.7

44.4

43.1

42.2

2001

2002

2003 Year

2004

2005

2006

2007

20% 10% 0% 99

2000

etc nuclear LNG hard coal soft coal oil

Prospects of energy demand(2007~2020)

340.8 MTOE 263.9 MTOE (Unit: %)

Oil

240.5MTOE

38.1 41.8

43.4

24.0

Coal 25.9

LNG

25.3

Nuclear

13.8

15.4

14.9

14.1

2.5

2.9

4.2

2007p

2010

2020

RE & Others

15.7 18.0

‰ Prospects of importance of each energy sources (2007 (2007pp 2020, 2020, %) %)

•• oil oil Ð Ð :: 43.4 43.4   38.1 38.1 •• gas gas Ï Ï :: 13.8 13.8   15.7 15.7

•• coal coal Ð Ð :: 25.3 25.3   24.0 24.0 •• nuclear nuclear Ï Ï :: 14.9 14.9   18.0 18.0 5

Status of Nuclear Power Plant unit : MWe Site

Operation

Construction

Total

Kori

4 (3,137)

4 (4,800)

8 (7,937)

Wolsong

4 (2,779)

2 (2,000)

6 (4,779)

Yonggwang

6 (5,900)

-

6 (5,900)

Ulchin

6 (5,900)

2 (2,800) plan

8 (8,700)

Total

20 (17,716)

8 (9,600)

28 (27,316)

Seoul

‰ Total

28 units (20 in operation and 8 under Licensing or construction)

„ Ulchin Daejeon

-24 PWRs, 4 PHWRs -Capacity : 27.3 GWe

„ Wolsong Yonggwang „ PWR PHWR Operation Construction Licensing

„ Kori

Prospect of Installed Capacity Oil (2.5%) Oil Hydro/New (7.1%) (11.1%)

LNG (26.6%)

Coal (28.2%)

Nuclear (27.0%)

Dec. 2006 Total : 65.5 GW Nuclear : 17.4 GW(27%)

Hydro/New (12.8%)

LNG (27.7%)

Coal (28.0%)

Nuclear (29.0%)

Dec. 2020 Total : 94.2 GW Nuclear : 29 GW(29%)

Prospect of Electricity Generation Oil Hydro/New (4.5%) (1.5%)

Hydro/New Oil (1.5%) (0.6%)

LNG (15.0%)

LNG (16.7%)

Coal (37.0%)

Nuclear (40.3%)

Dec. 2006 Total : 381 TWh Nuclear : 148 TWh(40.3%)

Coal (39.5%)

Nuclear (43.4%)

Dec. 2020 Total : 518 TWh Nuclear : 226 TWh(43.4%)

rd The The 33rd Electricity Electricity Supply Supply Plan Plan (2006-2020) (2006-2020)

Long term Energy demand indicator Energy Demand

GDP Growth Annual rate 3.7%

Energy Consumption

Annual growth 1.7%

Annual growth 1.7% 1,836.0 1,634.3

1,396.2 1,142.1 GDP(Trillion won) 760.3

286.7

233.4

(Million TOE)

Energy consumption (TOE/person)

4.83 0.307

’06

350.7

316.1

916.4

6.93

255.9 Total energy

340.2

7.21

6.41 5.82

5.24

0.279

’10

0.251

’15

0.226

0.208

’20

’25

0.191

’30

10

Prospect of demand weight of each primary energy source Oil dependency decrease 8.0%p 100% 90% 80%

2.4 15.9

3.0 14.5

13.7

15.4

70%

3.7

4.3

4.9

5.7

17.7

18.1

18.4

19.1

14.8

15.0

15.5

15.9

Hydro

수력/신재 /renew생ables Nuclear 원자력

60%

LNG LNG

50%

43.6

42.2

39.4

37.8

40%

35.6

36.8

Oil 석유

30% 20%

24.3

10%

25.8

26.9

25.1

24.6

24.1

Coal 석탄

0%

'06

'10

'15

'20

'25

'30 11

Major indices : draft goal of energy demand Unit energy source Total energy consumption(‘06-’30) Avg. annual rate of increase of 1.2%

Energy demand per person Avg. annual rate of increase of 1.1%

Improved 2.5% avg. annual 45.2% improved compared to ’06

Major indices : Draft goal of energy demand

1,836.0

1,396.2 308.5 290.9 GDP(trillion won)

760.3 6.34

Total energy 233.4 demand (Million TOE) Energy consumption 4.83 (TOE/person) Reference goal GDP (TOE/$1000) Draft goal energy GDP (TOE/$1000)

5.90

0.347 0.347

0.256 0.216 0.236

’06

’20

0.190

’30

12

Draft goal (1) : Demand for primary energy source (weight of nuclear power 37%) Oil • 0.0% avg. annual increase • Dependency decrease to 33.0%

Demand prospect

Nuclear energy • 3.3% avg. annual increase • Demand weight increase to 26.0%

Renewables •7.9% avg. annual increase • Demand weight increase to 8.7%

Demand weight prospect

Renewables Nuclear Hydro LNG Oil Coal

* Unit million TOE

13

Draft Goal (1) : Demand for final energy source Final energy demand : 0.9 % increase avg. annual (ref. 1.6%) Demand weight prospect Demand prospect

Renewables Thermal energy Electric power Gas Oil Coal

* unit: million TOE

Draft goal (2) : Demand for primary energy source (weight of nuclear power 42%) • 연평균 0.0%increase 증가, • 0.0% avg. annual 의존도 33.0%로 • Dependency decrease 감소 to 33.0%

Demand prospect

• 3.7% avg. annual increase • Demand weight increase to 28.9%

• 연평균 7.9% 증가, •7.9% avg. annual increase • 수요비중 8.7%로 증가to 8.7% • Demand weight increase

Demand weight prospect

Renewable Nuclear Hydro LNG Oil Coal

* 단위: 백만 TOE, % 자료 : 에너지경제연구원

* Unit : million TOE

15

Draft goal (2) : Demand for final energy source Final energy demand : 0.9 % increase avg. annual (ref. 1.6%) Demand weight prospect Demand prospect

Renewables Thermal energy Electric power Gas Oil Coal

* 단위: 백만 TOE, % 자료 : 에너지경제연구원

Status of Nuclear Energy Policy Nuclear Nuclear Energy Energy Policy Policy and and Nonproliferation Nonproliferation

‰Long-term Nuclear Energy Policy Towards the Year 2030 • Established in July 1994

• 4 primary objectives 9 to enhance stability in energy supply by promoting nuclear energy as a major energy source of domestic electricity generation 9 to achieve self-reliance of nuclear reactors and proliferationresistance through a comprehensive and systematic nuclear energy research and development program 9 to foster nuclear energy as a strategic export industry by securing international markets 9 to play a leading role in the improvement of human welfare and the advancement of science and technology

ECONOMIC ASPECTS AND COST 711.25 SALE COST (KOREAN WON/kWh)

39.4

40.9

NUCLEA SOFT COAL R

65.4

STONE COAL

117.0 104.0

94.3

HYDRO LNG

107.29

WIND

(2007)

HEAVY SOLAR OIL

178% 150

CONSUMER PRICE 178% 100

INCREASE Consumer price 5.4%

50

Electrical Fare 1982

2006 18

ELECTRICAL FARE 5.4% INCREASE

Evolution of NPP Project in Korea Over 30 years’ effort in

NPP development, Construction and operation

1970 1970

1980 1980

1990 1990

2000 2000

2010 2010

2020 2020

Phase Phase 55 • APR1400 construction • APR+ development

Phase Phase 44 • OPR1000 construction • APR1400 development

Phase Phase 33

Phase Phase 22 • Technology selfreliance , Promotion of localization 1• Non-turnkey contracts

Phase Phase 1

• First Introduction of NPP • Imported foreign NPPs

• NPP standardization • Korean standard OPR1000 development

Comprehensive Nuclear Energy Plan CNEP has been reformulated every 5 year since 1997, in compliance with the Atomic Energy Act -2011 The 3rd CNEP : 2007 2007-2011 Analyzing the achievements for the period of the 1st and the 2nd CNEP’s. Being based on the ｢4 Principles on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy｣. Considering world trends such as oil price surges, climate change and the development of GEN-IV nuclear systems. Reviewed and approved by Atomic Energy Commission. Budget : 2,440 billion won (approx. 2,630 M$)

The 3rd phase Nuclear Technology Development Project (2007-2011) is currently being implemented

It is the backbone of the nuclear R & D program ※ CNEPP: Comprehensive Nuclear Energy Promotion Plan

Comprehensive Comprehensive Agreement Agreement and and Additional Additional Protocol Protocol in in force force ‰ After signing the AP, Korea disclosed to the IAEA past undeclared nuclear activities ‹ Laboratory scale experiments on uranium enrichment have not been reported ‹ The IAEA has sent a delegation of inspectors to Korea - It verified the correctness and completeness of the initial report ‰ Viable measurements are required in order to get credit for nuclear transparency from international communities ‹ Korean Government has reconfirmed and announced Joint declaration of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula and four principles of peaceful use of nuclear energy ‹ Korea has asked the International SSAC Advisory Service Mission of the IAEA ‹ Atomic Energy Law was amended to provide those people in the industry and academia with mandatory education ‹ KINAC was founded in 2006 with the purpose to contribute to nuclear transparency in Korea

Korea Korea Nonproliferation Nonproliferation Policy Policy Bases Bases ‰

Joint Declaration of Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula(1992) To remove the danger of nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, the ROK and the DPRK declared: ¾ Art. 1 : Prohibition of testing, construction, production, acquisition, possession, deployment and use of nuclear weapons ¾ Art. 2 : Use of nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes ¾ Art. 3 : No possession of reprocessing or enrichment facilities

‰

Four Principles on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy (2004) Korea reaffirms that it does not have any intension of developing or possessing nuclear weapons • Korea will firmly maintain its principle of nuclear transparency, and will strengthen its cooperation with the international community to this end. • Korea will faithfully abide by international agreements on nuclear nonproliferation • With the confidence of the international community, Korea will expand the peaceful use of nuclear energy

Broader Broader Conclusion Conclusion and and Integrated Integrated safeguards safeguards ¾ In June of this year, the IAEA officially issued a broader conclusion saying there was no diversion of declared nuclear materials in Korea, and all nuclear material remained in peaceful activities

¾ Korea is preparing to enter into the system of Integrated Safeguards - allowing Korea to share jobs, technologies and information with the IAEA ¾ The major contents of IS include one-person-one job policy for both parties to aid one another - enhanced cooperation for PWRs with some information and job share is being carried out by signing the MOU between both sides

With much greater transparency, Korea pursues the highest level of cooperation with the IAEA, under increased national and social concerns with material accounting and verification under Integrated Safeguards

Keep Keep KINAC’s KINAC’s perspective perspective on on the the right right track track ‰ As a newly established professional body, the KINAC has duty to clearly understand the importance of international nonproliferation and to make efforts to educate professional manpower ‰ As a think tank, it is not only supporting the government on a technical aspect but is participating in safeguards inspection and physical protection measures, so that they are better able to establish wise policies ‰ It should equip with experts with profound knowledge and experience gained from the international community for the world peace - It cooperates with such institutions as the IAEA at home and abroad in terms of nuclear nonproliferation