ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND CONFLICT

Lakshmi Iyer (Har vard Business School) Impact and Policy Conference 201 2

CONFLICT: MANY T YPES  Inter-state aka war  Intra-state/internal  Civil war  Terrorism

 People-to-people  Organized crime  Targeting specific sections of society  Women  Religious minorities

CONFLICT: MANY T YPES  Inter-state aka war  Intra-state/internal  Civil war  Terrorism

 People-to-people  Organized crime  Targeting specific sections of society  Women  Religious minorities

INTERNAL CONFLICT IS BECOMING MORE COMMON THAN INTER -STATE CONFLICT 60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Countries with external conflict

Countries with internal conflict

Source: Author’s calculations from UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Version 4-2012 Conflict is defined as “A contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths.”

LOW-LEVEL CONFLICTS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Conflicts with 25-999 deaths

Conflicts with at least 1000 deaths

Source: Author’s calculations from UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Version 42012

2

ECONOMIC ROOTS: POOR COUNTRIES EXPERIENCE MORE INTERNAL CONFLICT Sri Lanka

0

Nepal

Pakistan

-2

India

-8

-6

-4

Bangladesh

6

7

8 9 Log GDP per capita 1998 (PPP)

10

11

Source: Iyer (2011). Conflict data is from Global Terrorism Database 2. GDP and population data from World Development Indicators.

POOR REGIONS WITHIN COUNTRIES EXPERIENCE MORE CONFLICT: NEPAL 6

Conflict deaths in Nepal’s civil war 1996-2006 Rukum

4

Kalikot Rolpa

Jumla

2

Myagdi Dang

0

Jajarkot Salyan Achham Lamjung Arghakhanchi Bajura Solukhumbu Surkhet Dailekh Mugu Banke Dadeldhura Dolakha Bardiya Kailali Bhojpur Gorkha Doti Sindhuli Humla Sankhuwasabha Okhaldhunga Taplejung Sindhupalchok Kavrepalanchok Ramechhap Dhading Terhathum Nuwakot ParbatKanchanpur Panchthar Bajhang Ilam Darchula Chitawan Udayapur Baglung Palpa Khotang Siraha Makwanpur Dhankuta Kapilbastu Nawalparasi Baitadi Rautahat Syangja Kaski Tanahu Sarlahi Rupandehi Dhanusa Bara Pyuthan Morang Gulmi Lalitpur Jhapa Bhaktapur Kathmandu Sunsari Saptari Parsa Mahottari Manang

0

.2

.4 .6 Poverty rate 1995-96

Conflict deaths per 1000 population

.8 Fitted values

Source: Do and Iyer (2010). Notes: Conflict data collected at district level by the Informal Sector Service Center, Kathmandu. Poverty rate from Nepal Living Standards Survey, 1995-96.

1

POVERT Y AND CONFLICT ACROSS INDIAN DISTRICTS 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Poverty