SCOTTISH ENTERPRISE
Economic Appraisal Guidance Note A Summary Guide to Developing the Economic Case for a Project or Programme Appraisal & Evaluation Team 1st November 2008
Scottish Enterprise, 150 Broomielaw, Atlantic Quay, Glasgow, G2 8LU
SCOTTISH ENTERPRISE ECONOMIC APPRAISAL GUIDANCE NOTE
RECORD OF CHANGES Version
Change Date
Description
1.0
1 November 2008
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SCOTTISH ENTERPRISE ECONOMIC APPRAISAL GUIDANCE NOTE
CONTENTS RECORD OF CHANGES ................................................................................................................................................................II 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 PURPOSE OF THIS GUIDANCE NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 WHO IS THIS GUIDANCE FOR?..........................................................................................................................................................1 1.3 RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER GUIDANCE ..................................................................................................................................................1 2 WHY DO APPRAISAL? ...................................................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 THE RATIONALE FOR APPRAISAL ........................................................................................................................................................2 2.2 WHERE DOES APPRAISAL FIT IN THE LIFE OF A PROJECT OR PROGRAMME?..................................................................................................2 2.3 DECIDING APPRAISAL LEVEL .............................................................................................................................................................3 2.4 THE MAIN ELEMENTS OF APPRAISAL ..................................................................................................................................................4 2.5 APPRAISAL ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES ............................................................................................................................................4 2.6 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL CONTACTS .....................................................................................................................................................5 2.7 ACTIONS: APPRAISAL WORKBOOK .....................................................................................................................................................5 3 OFFICIAL FRAMEWORKS THAT GUIDE APPRAISAL ........................................................................................................... 6 3.1 MAPPING THE FRAMEWORKS ...........................................................................................................................................................6 4 IDENTIFYING & QUANTIFYING MONETARY COSTS & BENEFITS OF OPTIONS.................................................................... 7 4.1 STATE TIME PERIOD FOR ASSESSMENT................................................................................................................................................7 4.2 ESTIMATING COSTS ........................................................................................................................................................................7 4.3 ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF BENEFITS .................................................................................................................................................7 4.4 WORKBOOK ACTION: RECORD MONETARY COSTS & BENEFITS ................................................................................................................8 4.5 ADJUSTING MONETARY BENEFITS FOR ADDITIONALITY ...........................................................................................................................9 4.6 WORKBOOK ACTIONS: RECORD ADJUSTED MONETARY BENEFITS .............................................................................................................9 5 ASSESSING RISK, UNCERTAINTY AND ADJUSTING FOR OPTIMISM BIAS ......................................................................... 11 5.1 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................................................11 5.2 SCENARIOS .................................................................................................................................................................................11 5.3 OPTIMISM BIAS...........................................................................................................................................................................11 5.4 WORKBOOK ACTION: UNDERTAKE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, PRESENT SCENARIOS AND ADJUST FOR OPTIMISM BIAS .............................................12 6 DISCOUNTING & CALCULATING NET PRESENT VALUES .................................................................................................. 13 6.1 DISCOUNTING ILLUSTRATION ..........................................................................................................................................................13 6.2 WORKBOOK ACTIONS: USE COST‐BENEFIT TEMPLATE TO CONSIDER NET PRESENT VALUE OF OPTIONS ...........................................................13 6.3 ESTIMATING GROSS VALUE ADDED FROM THE NET PRESENT VALUE ........................................................................................................14 6.4 WORKBOOK ACTION: CALCULATE GROSS VALUE ADDED ......................................................................................................................14 7 CONSIDERING NON‐MONETARY COST AND BENEFITS ................................................................................................... 15 7.1 EXAMPLES OF WIDER BENEFITS ......................................................................................................................................................15 7.2 METHODS FOR ASSESSING NON‐MONETARY BENEFITS .........................................................................................................................16 7.3 ADJUSTING NON‐MONETARY BENEFITS: ADDITIONALITY ......................................................................................................................16 7.4 ESTIMATING GROSS VALUE ADDED FROM NON‐MONETARY BENEFITS.....................................................................................................16 7.5 WORKBOOK ACTION: LIST CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS AND UNDERTAKE WEIGHTING & SCORING .................................................................16 8 ESTABLISHING A MONITORING & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................... 17 8.1 DEVELOPING A FRAMEWORK ..........................................................................................................................................................17 8.2 WORKBOOK ACTIONS ...................................................................................................................................................................17 9 FURTHER INFORMATION............................................................................................................................................... 18 APPENDIX 1 APPRAISAL WORKBOOK ....................................................................................................................................... 19 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ......................................................................................................................................................................19 STEP 1 EXPLAIN THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT ......................................................................................................................................................19 STEP 2 ESTABLISH THE NEED FOR EXPENDITURE ...............................................................................................................................................20 STEP 3 DEFINE THE OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................................................................................20 STEP 4 IDENTIFY & DESCRIBE OPTIONS ..........................................................................................................................................................21 STEP 5 IDENTIFY & QUANTIFY MONETARY COSTS & BENEFITS OF OPTIONS ...........................................................................................................21 STEP 6 ASSESS RISK, UNCERTAINTY AND ADJUST FOR OPTIMISM BIAS ..................................................................................................................22 STEP 7 DISCOUNT & CALCULATE NET PRESENT VALUES.....................................................................................................................................22 STEP 8 CONSIDER NON‐MONETARY COSTS & BENEFITS ....................................................................................................................................23 STEP 9 ESTABLISH MONITORING & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ...........................................................................................................................23 APPENDIX 2 COST‐BENEFIT TEMPLATE ..................................................................................................................................... 24 APPENDIX 3 COST‐BENEFIT CHECKLIST ..................................................................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX 4 MONITORING & EVALUATION CHECKLIST............................................................................................................. 26
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INTRODUCTION
1.1
PURPOSE OF THIS GUIDANCE NOTE
The aim of this guide is to provide a practical framework for completing economic appraisals of projects and programmes in order to allow decision‐makers in Scottish Enterprise to better identify and prioritise opportunities for economic development interventions. The detailed objectives of this guide are as follows: • • •
•
1.2
To show how economic appraisal fits into the project development lifecycle, and development of the wider business case; To indicate the main official frameworks that relate to appraisal; To Identify the main steps involved in economic appraisal, including; o Indentifying and adjusting project costs and benefits; o Accounting for project risk and uncertainties; o Understanding the basic concepts and application of discounting; and To explain the role of the Appraisal & Evaluation Team in supporting economic appraisal and other groups that support other aspects of appraisal. WHO IS THIS GUIDANCE FOR?
This note is intended to support project or programme owners engaged in development of a business case, specifically the economic case. It is noted that the approaches set out are valid for all levels of economic appraisal. Guidance on choosing the appropriate level of appraisal can be found in this document. Project owners are encouraged to consult with specialist appraisal and evaluation staff for support in applying this guidance to their work. Note for External Contractors: the approach set out in this note is also recommended for use by Scottish Enterprise external contractors. 1.3
RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER GUIDANCE
This note draws on and adapts other guidance and signposts to more detailed explanations are given at the end of this note (see section 9). This note supersedes all other previous SE guidance on economic appraisal (including that contained in ‘Appraisal and Evaluation Guidance Modules’ 1 ‘A Positive Guide to Evaluation 2 ’, and the ‘Project Development Guidance 3 ’). This guidance note is also consistent with the high level discussion of principles and best practice in project appraisal and evaluation as presented in HM Treasury (2003) The Green Book, Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government. Economic appraisal is an important component of preparing a business case for approval. Guidance on other aspects of developing a business case is available from the Project Lifecycle intranet site, the Regional Support Teams, or the Commercial Directorate (see contact details in section 2.6). Estimating the additional benefits of an intervention is an important step in estimating the ultimate impact of an intervention on the economy in terms of Gross Value Added. Detailed guidance on both these techniques is set out in more detail in separate guidance (see http://www.scottish‐enterprise.com/sedotcom_home/about‐us/research‐ publications/evaluations‐impact.htm).
1
Scottish Enterprise (2004) Appraisal and Evaluation Guidance Modules, Scottish Enterprise: Glasgow 2 Scottish Enterprise (Undated) A Positive Guide to Evaluation, Scottish Enterprise: Glasgow 3 Scottish Enterprise (1996) Project Development Guidance, June, Various Volumes, Scottish Enterprise: Glasgow
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WHY DO APPRAISAL?
2.1
THE RATIONALE FOR APPRAISAL The first question that needs to be asked when planning or starting appraisal is: •
For what reasons are we undertaking the appraisal?
The rationale for appraisal is set out by HM Treasury as follows: All new policies, programmes and projects, whether revenue, capital or regulatory, should be subject to comprehensive but proportionate assessment, wherever it is practicable, so as best to promote the public interest. The Green Book presents the techniques and issues that should be considered when carrying out assessments (HM Treasury 2003, p1). Appraisal also allows project owners to demonstrate the Value for Money of their project, that is, how economic, efficient and effective the planned intervention will be. Appraisal is critically important for any project, programme or policy because it helps to judge whether the activity is worthwhile, whether it represents the best use of scarce public resources. 2.2
WHERE DOES APPRAISAL FIT IN THE LIFE OF A PROJECT OR PROGRAMME? Appraisal often forms a stage in a broad project, programme or policy cycle. This is sometimes called the ROAMEF cycle (standing for Rationale, Objectives, Appraisal, Monitoring, Evaluation and Feedback).
Figure 2.1 ROAMEF Diagram Appraisal represents an assessment of an intervention before resources have been committed. This is also sometimes referred to as Ex Ante Evaluation.
Figure 2.2 Appraisal Terminology Some points to note about appraisal include: • •
Appraisals are often iterated a number of times before their proposals are implemented in full. As the stages of an appraisal progress, data must be refined to become more specific and accurate. Page 2 of 29
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The effort applied at each step should be proportionate to the funds involved, outcomes at stake, and the time available.
The steps outlined in this guide provide the main elements that should normally be undertaken. These are provided in sequence, but it may be that project owners revisit different steps as their assessment of the proposed intervention becomes clearer and/or new information becomes available. 2.3
DECIDING APPRAISAL LEVEL
An important first step in the appraisal process is deciding an appropriate level of assessment. This will vary depending on a number of factors such as project cost, risk and whether the project is ‘mission critical’ (see Figure 2.3). A matrix for identifying an appropriate level of appraisal is set out below. Final decisions on the appropriate level and detailed content should be agreed by the project owner and the Regional Support Teams/or Commercial Directorate.
Figure 2.3 Deciding Appraisal Level Importance/ Priority Risk
Cost
1
Level 1 Appraisal
Level 2 Appraisal
Level 3 Appraisal
Not mission critical. Outputs do not directly (on their own) support the delivery of a major policy outcome
Not mission critical. Outputs do not directly support (on their own) the delivery of a major policy outcome
Mission Critical. Outputs of the project/programme directly support the delivery of a major policy outcome
Low Risk • a routine and well‐tested approach to delivery; • an experienced delivery team; • clear project boundaries with little or no interdependency on other projects; • minimal external impact on the public and other organisations; or • limited resource requirements.
Medium Risk • a previously tested approach to delivery; • a structured delivery team with some relevant experience; • a well defined project with clear and uncomplicated boundaries; • some impact on the public and other organisations; • an important but non‐critical business support function and/or some political sensitivity; or • some degree of resource commitment.
High Risk • a novel or untested approach to delivery; • lack of experience of similar project delivery; • a complex matrix of project interdependencies; • a significant impact on the public and other organisations; • a business criticality and/or political sensitivity; or a • significant resource commitment.